钢材贸易的区域变化.pdf

专栏SPECIALS67关键提示钢材贸易的区域变化作为小宗散货商品中贸易量最大的品种，近年来钢材贸易量变化较大，尤其在2022年下半年承受了巨大压力。2023年，虽然中国出口量保持强劲，但全球钢材贸易量仍旧疲软，而其他小宗散货商品贸易量则普遍得到改善。全球钢材贸易概况 近年来，全球钢材贸易波动较大，自2016年中国开始实施供给侧结构性改革以来，20162019年期间钢材贸易普遍承压，这期间全球钢材贸易量平均下跌2%。2020年，受新冠疫情影响全球工业需求持续下滑，全球钢材贸易量大幅下跌7%。2021年，受中国钢材出口激增支撑，全球钢材贸易量同比上涨13%至4亿吨以上。然而，2022年由于能源高成本削弱了钢材生产商利润，同时叠加因新冠疫情导致的贸易供应中断以及俄乌冲突对钢材出口的直接干扰等，全球钢材贸易持续承压，贸易量大幅下跌10%至3.6亿吨，较2015年4.16亿吨的峰值低13%。中国出口激增2023年，主要钢材出口国发生变化。2022年中国钢材出口占全球钢材贸易量的21%，而自2022年12月以来，由于中国房地产行业疲软导致本国钢材供需失衡，过剩的钢材产能逐渐流向国际市场。2023年18月，中国钢材出口量同比上涨29%至6 100万吨。其中，中国对亚洲地区钢材出口量同比上涨25%至2 700万吨，达到中国钢材出口总量的约45%，而钢材出口至美国和欧盟/英国分别同比下跌8%和2%。与此同时，钢材出口至其他国家/地区出现了明显增长。中国出口至土耳其、巴西和中东地区的钢材分别同比上涨75%、80%和82%，这主要得益于中国钢材的价格优势。2023年，中国钢材出口量预计同比大幅上涨31%至8 940万吨，达到2016年以来的最高水平。全球需求放缓其他主要国家/地区也存在钢材贸易压力，部分钢材产能因能源成本高企而处于闲置状态。2023年18月，欧盟/英国钢材出口量同比大幅下跌14%。与此同时，由于俄乌冲突和今年2月发生的土耳其地震破坏了乌克兰和土耳其国内部分钢材产能，欧洲其他国家/地区的钢材出口因此受到干扰，预计2023年钢材出口量将较2021年缩减一半。亚洲方面，2023年18月，日本和韩国钢材出口量分别较去年同期低5%和4%。总体而言，除中国以外，2023年其他主要国家/地区的钢材出口量预计下跌4%。综上所述，尽管中国钢材出口激增，但由于其他主要国家/地区贸易承压，2023年全球钢材贸易量预计仅同比上涨1.5%。虽然钢材贸易增速低于其他小宗散货商品，但钢材全球贸易量在经历近年来的波动后已逐渐趋于稳定。随着全球宏观经济压力的缓解，未来钢材贸易量或将进一步上涨。尽管中国钢材出口激增，但由于其他主要国家/地区的贸易承压，2023 年全球钢材贸易量预计仅同比上涨 1.5%。年度全球钢铁贸易量变化来源：克拉克森研究年份出口量/百万吨贸易增进/%Maritime China|中国远洋海运11progress,it is imperative to construct the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road and a maritime community with a shared future,aiming to achieve land-sea connectivity and usher in the era of deep-sea exploration in public waters.When considering global ocean governance,the focus should not only be on the aspects of governance,but also on who will govern and how.The author proposes building a community with a shared future for the oceans from three perspectives.Firstly,countries should take responsibility for their actions to avoid negative impacts,pursue peaceful development,uphold maritime security,and contribute to building a community that harmonizes human life and nature through the establishment of a Blue Partnership.Secondly,the construction of the community with a shared future for the oceans should transcend the traditional concept of maritime civilization and embrace an ecological civilization approach to the ocean.Thirdly,to establish the community with a shared future for the oceans,it is essential to facilitate practical,inclusive,and orderly international cooperation mechanisms.Lastly,addressing several challenges is crucial in building the community with a shared future for the oceans.P64Steel products trade:tracking regional variations Trade in steel products,the largest minor bulk,has been volatile in recent years and came under significant pressure in 2H-22 alongside most other minor bulk commodities.Whilst other minor bulks have generally seen volumes improve across 2023,steel products trade has remained sluggish,but there are mixed trends between exporters,with Chinese shipments recording strong growth.Steel products trade has been volatile in recent years,coming under pressure in 2016-2019 amid concerns around overcapacity in Chinas steel industry after a surge in exports,with global trade falling 2%in 2016-2019.Volumes came under further pressure 12in 2020(falling 7%)as Covid lockdowns saw global industrial demand slump.Whilst steel products trade rebounded strongly by 13%yoy in 2021 to 400mt,led by growth in Chinese exports,steel products trade came under major pressure again in 2022 amid high energy costs cutting into producer margins,further Covid disruption in China,and direct impacts on Russian/Ukrainian exports from the conflict.Full year volumes fell 10%in 2022 to 360mt,still 13%below the 2015peakof 416mt.So,despite growth in Chinese exports,a range of pressures elsewhere are combining to limit projected growth in steel products trade to just 1.5%this year.Whilst this is a much more subdued rebound than that seen in some other minor bulks,global volumes have at least stabilised after recent volatility,and there appears scope for further improvements going forward as macroeconomic pressures start to ease.P67The freight spread between the US West and East coasts has fallen to a new lowA shrinking spread between ocean freight rates from China to the US West and East coasts reflects the return of import volumes to West Coast ports,as well as the switch in US import sourcing that favors ocean services from Southeast Asia through the Suez Canal,market experts say.The short-term rate for shipping a standard dry ocean container from Shanghai to the US East Coast as of Nov.1 was just$412 higher than it was to the West Coast,according to data from rate benchmarking firm Xeneta,a four-year low.And while the spread has since rebounded to$504 as of Nov.13,its still half what it was at the end of August.Spread between ocean freight rates to US West and East Coasts narrows to new lows.Average Asia-to-US container freight rates,under short-term contracts of 32 days or less.A sharper drop in freight rates from China to the East Coast compared with the West Coast is the primary reason for the tighter spread.From Sept.1 to Nov.1,the short-term rate to the East December 2023栏目责编：陶润元