中国商业环境调查报告.pdf

US-CHINABUSINESSTHE NEXT HUNDRED YEARSCHINA BUSINESS CLIMATE SURVEY REPORT中国商业环境调查报告2022Chairmans Message主席致辞Executive Summary概述2022 Survey Methodology2022 年调查方法1.Performance Snapshot绩效速览2.Business Operations and Goals商业运营和经营目标2.1 Growth Outlook and Opportunities增长前景与机遇2.2 Investment Outlook投资前景3 Business Environment商业环境3.1 Investment Environment 投资环境3.2 Human Resources人力资源3.3 Innovation and Intellectual Property Rights创新和知识产权4.Impact of Bilateral Relations中美关系的影响CONTENTS 目录023804532055258034893699pOmRmPsMnNtNsOxOnOnPrR7NbP7NoMrRmOmOeRpPsRfQsQpN8OpOsPMYmMrMMYsQoP2AmCham Chinas 2022 China Business Climate Survey Report Chairmans MessageThe US-China relationship has a direct and profound impact on global peace and prosperity,and China is a critically important market for many American companies.The American Chamber of Commerce in the Peoples Republic of China(AmCham China)dates back to 1919,and will continue to act as a bridge for constructive commercial engagement between both countries for many more years.We are delighted to have partnered with PwC for the execution and analysis of the 24th annual edition of our 2022 China Business Climate Survey(BCS)Report.Our member companies believe that American business in China benefits both the United States and Chinese economies.As one of the key barometers of the sentiment of the American business community in China,this years edition includes some key themes:Earnings before interest and taxes(EBIT)bounced back to 2018 levels,with US companies taking a long-term view:EBIT margins are up for a majority of companies,with business growth as the primary driver.China remains a top three priority investment destination for 60%of our companies near term global investment plans.Member companies remain committed to their China business operations,and 66%plan to increase their investments in China in 2022.That said,in looking at the“company business outlook in China”over the next two years,members are overall less optimistic than they were in the year prior.Mounting pressure and risks for US companies operating in China on politically sensitive issues:Navigating US-China bilateral tensions remains a top challenge and concern for companies.42%of companies have been facing mounting pressure to speak out and make(or not make)statements on politically sensitive issues,often causing them trouble in both the US and China markets.Of those companies,66%have been receiving this pressure from the Chinese government,with 32%from the U.S.government.Increasingly complex regulatory environment:There are multiple major new regulations being implemented all at once,both in China and in the United States,on an increasingly wide range of high impact topics,from transit of key business personnel to personal income taxes for expats,and data security to environmental regulations to sanctions.The list of new and updated regulations continues to grow.AmCham China members desire constructive engagement,leading to concrete actions to address concerns:The number of member companies which“feel less welcome”operating their business in China has doubled over the past year,across all sectors.However,it is worth noting that the BCS survey was completed in November 2021,before the Chinese government took action to address two major practical member concerns:extension of preferential policies related to the Individual Income Tax(IIT)for foreign individuals,and support for the launch of the US-China Fast Track Travel Channel Program to help facilitate travel into China for the American business community and their families.The responses from companies to these developments have been very positive and demonstrated again the value of constructive engagement,especially with business organizations like AmCham China,in initiating mutually beneficial policies and actions.The data included in this report provides an accurate and nuanced view of the experiences that our member companies are having on the ground in China.Colm Rafferty Chairman,AmCham China March 2022 3AmCham Chinas 2022 China Business Climate Survey Report 主席致辞中美关系对全球和平与繁荣有着直接且深远的影响。对于许多美国企业而言，中国市场至关重要。中国美国商会自 1919 年来，一直致力于为两国建设性商业关系搭建桥梁。今年，我们非常高兴与普华永道合作，共同开展第 24 期中国美国商会中国商务环境调查报告研究撰写工作。我们的会员企业相信，在华美资企业的运营将造福于中美两大经济体。作为衡量在华美国企业意见的一个重要指标，今年的调查报告中包括了以下重要议题：息税前利润率回到 2018 年水平，会员企业开始着眼长远发展：大部分商会会员企业的息税前利润率上涨，上涨的主要动力是业务增长。中国仍然是 60%会员企业近期全球投资计划的前三大投资目的地之一。会员企业仍承诺其在华业务，66%的会员企业计划在 2022 年增加在华投资。然而，在展望未来两年“企业在中国的业务前景”时，会员企业总体不像去年那么乐观。会员企业在政治敏感性问题上面临的压力和风险与日俱增：如何应对中美双边的紧张局势仍然是会员企业面临的最大挑战和最关注的问题。42%的会员企业在就政治敏感性问题发表或不发表观点方面面临着越来越大的压力，这常常给他们在美国和中国市场带来巨大挑战。66%的会员企业表示压力来自中国政府，32%表示压力来自美国政府。监管环境日益复杂：中美两国近期都颁布了多项重大监管政策，内容涉及一系列范围宽广、极具影响力的话题，从关键业务人员过境、外籍人士个人所得税、数据安全、环境法规到制裁措施。新出台和修订的法规还在持续增加。中国美国商会会员期待与政府部门的建设性接触，并通过实际行动解决会员企业所担心的问题：在过去一年中，各行业的会员企业中感到自己“不像之前那样受欢迎”的数量翻了一倍。但需要说明的是，今年的商务环境调查于 2021 年 11 月完成，当时中国政府尚未采取行动解决会员企业所担心的两大实际问题：让外国人享受同样的个人所得税优惠政策以及支持启动中美快速通道项目，为美国商务人士及其家属入境中国提供便利。在中国政府就上述两项事宜采取行动措施之后，会员企业表现出了积极的反响，这也再次证明，与像中国美国商会这样的商业组织进行建设性接触能够推动出台使双方都获益的政策和措施，产生巨大的价值。本报告中的数据准确而细致地反映了我们扎根中国本土会员企业的实际情况。华刚林 中国美国商会主席 2022 年 3 月 4AmCham Chinas 2022 China Business Climate Survey Report Executive SummaryAs China and the world enter the third year of the COVID-19 pandemic,our members report a mixed picture,balancing of slightly improved business performance with a growing uncertainty about the future of Chinas business environment.Estimated performance results for 2021 show that revenue,profitability,and Earnings Before Interest and Taxes(EBIT)margins rebounded from the last two years.However,most results have not returned to pre-pandemic levels.While members continue to be optimistic about their opportunities in China,that optimism is in decline due to sustained air travel disruptions,an increasingly uncertain regulatory environment,difficulty attracting and retaining talent,and the strained US-China relationship.Figure 21.Top Five Business Challenges in China图 21.企业在中国市场面临的五大商业挑战201820192020202120221Inconsistent regulatory interpretation and unclear laws&enforcement法律法规和执行不一致/不明确60%Inconsistent regulatory interpretation and unclear laws&enforcement法律法规和执行不一致/不明确55%Rising labor costs劳动力成本增加45%Rising tensions in US-China relations中美关系日益紧张78%Rising tensions in US-China relations中美关系日益紧张56%2Rising labor costs劳动力成本增加56%Rising labor costs劳动力成本增加48%Inconsistent regulatory interpretation and unclear laws&enforcement法律法规和执行不一致/不明确41%Rising labor costs劳动力成本增加40%Inconsistent regulatory interpretation and unclear laws&enforcement法律法规和执行不一致/不明确31%3Regulatory compliance risks监管合规风险37%Rising tensions in US-China relations中美关系日益紧张45%Rising tensions in US-China relations中美关系日益紧张41%Inconsistent regulatory interpretation and unclear laws&enforcement法律法规和执行不一致/不明确37%Rising labor costs劳动力成本增加29%4Shortages of qualified management缺少合格的管理人员32%Increasing competition from privately owned Chinese companies 来自中国民营企业的日益激烈的竞争58%Regulatory compliance risks监管合规风险23%Increasing competition from privately owned Chinese companies 来自中国民营企业的日益激烈的竞争33%Regulatory compliance risks监管合规风险28%5Increasing Chinese protectionism中国保护主义不断升级32%Shortages of qualified management缺少合格的管理人员28%Shortages of qualified management缺少合格的管理人员23%Concerns about data security对数据安全的担忧26%Concerns about data security对数据安全的担忧23%5AmCham Chinas 2022 China Business Climate Survey Report 概 述随着全球步入新冠肺炎疫情危机的第三年，中国美国商会会员企业对于在华经营情况和营商环境的反馈众说纷纭。一方面，经营情况有所改善，但对中国未来营商环境的不确定性在不断攀升。据统计，2021 年商会会员企业在营收、利润以及息税前利润率等方面相比前两年均将有所回调。但大部分结果未能达到疫情前水平。虽然商会会员企业总体上对中国市场存在的机遇持乐观态度，但由于中美通航情况不稳定、监管形势不明朗、吸引招聘人才存在困难，以及中美关系紧张等一系列原因，这种乐观情绪在不断消融。中国仍是许多会员企业的优先战略重点国家，并将持续加大在中国的投资。特别是以应对全球环境变化为目的的减碳项目成为会员普遍关注的新兴领域。许多会员企业都将此列为工作重点，包括将其纳入企业全球业务战略，同时减碳项目的投入也可提升公司整体品牌价值。中国不断增长的本土消费市场和不断扩大的中产阶级规模增强了企业在各自行业发展的信心，尽管过去几年企业在华经营面临重重挑战，但长期持续不断的投入也或使企业在华运营取得回报。企业营收和利润不断回升，但尚未回到新型冠状肺炎疫情（下称“疫情”）前水平超过一半的会员预估其 2021 年的营收将同比上涨，逆转连续几年的跌势。超过三分之二的服务业会员预估Figure 9.How does the estimated 2021 revenue of your companys China operations compare with 2020 results?图 9.与 2020 年相比，贵企业 2021 年在中国的业务营收如何？%By percentage 622612453321353134582814 Up上升 Comparable (2%)持平 Down下降202020192018Consumer消费行业262054202050272320212021Resources&Industrial工业和资源行业38372520205727162021Services服务行业3233342020682662021Tech and R&D技术和研发行业49262520206229920216AmCham Chinas 2022 China Business Climate Survey Report China remains a key strategic priority for many members and investment in China operations continues.One area of new investment goals is carbon-related actions to combat global climate change.Member companies are prioritizing such actions as part of both their broader global business strategy and also to increase overall brand value.Chinas growing domestic consumption and rising affluent middle class give members hope across all sectors that their continued investment in China will pay off,despite the unique challenges of the last few years.Revenue and profitability continue to rebound,but fail to match pre-pandemic levelsMore than half of members estimate their 2021 revenue to be higher than 2020,reversing a trend from the last few years.More than two-thirds of the Services sector anticipate improved revenue,up 36 percentage points(pp)from their estimates last year(Figure 9).However,the impacts of COVID-19,especially intermittent lockdowns to control local outbreaks,continue to negatively impact revenues,according to two-thirds of members.This impact is most significantly felt in the Consumer sector(53%),whose brick-and-mortar operations are directly impacted by such lockdowns.While there has been an uptick in the proportion of companies expecting revenues to increase from last year,2021 has also seen inflation rise.When accounting for inflation,about four-in-ten companies are further from pre-pandemic performance.Compared to the last five years,2021 saw the highest proportion of companies estimating that they will be“very profitable”at 13%compared to 5%in 2020 and earlier.While the proportion of companies anticipating profits has increased since last year(59%in 2021 versus 54%in 2020),this fails to match the 73%of companies that reported profitability in 2017 before the pandemic and escalation of the US-China trade war.The greatest improvement from 2020 performance comes from the Services sector,which saw a 13pp improvement in the number of profitable companies(Figure 11).EBIT margins also bounced back to near-2018 levels,including a 20pp improvement for the Services sector and a 23pp improvement for the Technology sector.Across all sectors,45%of respondents anticipate 2021 EBIT margins will be up,a 16pp increase from 2020(Figure 12).Nearly two-thirds of members attribute improved EBIT margins to overall business growth and 18%cite the launch of new and improved products and services.Companies that anticipate EBIT margins to go down attribute the decline to an assortment of reasons,including pandemic-related issues,increased costs,and deteriorating industry conditions.Companies continue to rely on Chinas market as a part of their global businessNearly two-thirds of companies rank China as the top or a top-three priority for near-term global investment(Figure 31).A key driver to increasing investment in China is the strategic prioritization of the local market and expectations of faster growth in China compared to other regions.When asked about their top business opportunities in China,many anticipate improved results given the growth in domestic consumption and the expanding affluent middle class.Ongoing economic and market reforms will create opportunity for improved business results,according to about one-third of companies.The prospect of winning in China and winning big continues to motivate business decision-making,despite an otherwise pessimistic outlook.Across the business environment landscape this year,members report decreased optimism.In the two-year outlook,there was an 11pp decline in optimism related to domestic market growth and an 18pp decline related to economic growth and recovery.The lack of optimism in market growth and economic recovery may be related to Chinas slowing economic growth rate,which has been adversely impacted by pandemic-related restrictions across the country.While China is still viewed as a profitable and valuable market,the increasing uncertainties beyond COVID-19 make companies wary of predicting large gains in China over the short-to-medium term.7AmCham Chinas 2022 China Business Climate Survey Report 其应收将有所上升，比去年上升 36 个百分点（图 9）。三分之二的会员表示，新冠疫情，尤其因多地爆发疫情而采取的管控措施，将持续影响他们的营收。这种影响在消费领域表现得最为明显（53%），因为该领域会员企业线下运营直接受新冠疫情管控影响。虽然预估营收上升企业的比例有所升高，但是 2021 年的通胀率也在上升。如果将通胀计算在内，约 40%的企业在华的运营情况将更难达到疫情前的水准。2021 年预计“利润将非常丰厚”的企业所占比例上升至 13%，为过去五年最高点，相比之下，2020 年及以前只有 5%的企业有如此表现。虽然 2021 年预计盈利的企业比例比去年有所上升（2021 年为 59%，2020年为 54%），但该数据依然不及疫情前以及中美贸易战升级前的水平（2017 年，73%的企业表示盈利）。2020 年利润增长幅度最大的是来自服务业的企业，其中表示盈利的企业比例上升了 13 个百分点（图 11）。息税前利润率同样回升至近 2018 年的水平，其中服务业增长 20 个百分点，科技行业增长 23 个百分点。所有行业中，45%的受访者预计 2021 年的息税前利润率将上升，该比例比 2020 年高 16 个百分点（图 12）。近三分之二的会员认为其息税前利润率上升来自整体业务增长，18%的会员认为其息税前利润率上升是因为其推出了全新的或改进的产品或服务。而那些 2021 年息税前利润率下降的企业则认为，下降是疫情、企业成本上升、行业情况恶化等多种因素共同产生的结果。会员企业的全球业务继续依赖中国市场近三分之二的会员企业将中国作为短期内全球首要或前三大投资市场（图 31）。这些企业增加在中国市场投资的一个主要驱动因素是中国市场战略重点地位，以及和其他地区相比中国更快的经济增长速度。当问及在中国市场的首要业务机遇时，许多企业认为本土消费增长以及日益壮大的中产阶级将有利于他们的业务增长。约三分之一的企业表示，当前经济以及市场改革也有利于其业务表现。Figure 31.Chinas rank in near-term global investment plans图 31.中国在近期全球投资计划中的重要性%By percentage 20412910201822383192017203930112019214029102020223829112021 First priority首要投资目的地 Top three priority前三大投资目的地 One among many destinations众多投资目的地之一 Not a high priority不是优先考虑对象8AmCham Chinas 2022 China Business Climate Survey Report Although many companies are continuing to face COVID-19 related challenges,global business connectivity and human capital are now the top problemsThe COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact all aspects of doing business in China.Over half(58%)of members report the cost of products and services has been negatively impacted and 69%report a negative impact on suppliers ability to provide materials and component parts.Contributing to overall costs and supplier delays is the pandemics negative impact on international transportation spending,according to 74%of members.Lingering COVID-19 impacts,such as these,are encouraging some members to change their approach to China.For the 27 respondents who are looking to relocate manufacturing or sourcing outside of China,22%say that COVID-19 is a driving factor,a significant increase(17pp)from last year.In 2021,transportation and travel ranked as the most negatively impacted business area for members in the context of COVID-19.70%of members cite the impact on global business travel as Chinas borders remain mostly closed to foreigners and lengthy mandatory quarantines are a deterrent for the few that can enter(Figure 18).Limited airline service also makes the cost of travel far more expensive.These challenges not only impact business travel for US citizens but also prevent Chinese staff from taking essential business trips to the US,creating additional barriers between many US headquarters and local offices in China.COV