可口可乐公司财务报表分析.ppt

,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,.,*,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,.,*,可口可乐公司,财务报表分析,王冠男,1,.,The Framework,公司简介,(Introduction),战略分析,(Strategy Analysis),账目分析,(Account Analysis),信用分析,(Credit Analysis),财务分析,(Financial Analysis),前景分析,(,Prospective Analysis),2,.,Introduction,可口可乐公司介绍,可口可乐的诞生与发展,可口可乐的市场现况,根据一项,20,世纪的调查，全世界最流行的三个词分别是：上帝、她、可口可乐,3,.,Coca-Colas Products,4,.,销售收入,(Sales),5,.,第四回合,第三回合,第二回合,第一回合,股市表现旗鼓相当,各选择麦当劳与肯德基作为,战略合 作,伙伴,百,事与可口可乐的广告大战,百事根本不是可口可乐的对手,With Its Competitor-PepsiCo,6,.,市场份额,(Market Share),7,.,软饮料制造业,(Soft Drink Industry),酒精含量低于,0.5,(,质量比,),的天然的或人工配制的饮料，又称清凉饮料、无醇饮料,溶解香精、香料、色素等溶剂或乳酸饮料生产过程的副产物,8,.,波特五力模型,Porters Five Forces Model,9,.,行业分析,(Industrial Analysis),行业利润率,潜在竞争者进入的能力,(Threat of new entrants),行业内竞争者现在,的竞争能力,(Rivalry,among existing firms),替代品的替代能力,(Threat of substitute,products),供应商的议价能力,(Bargaining power of,suppliers),购买者的议价能力,(Bargaining power of,buyers),10,.,态势分析法,SWOT Analysis,11,.,Strengths,Weaknesses,Threats,Opportunities,汇,率风,险,水质和水,量,消费者喜好正在改,变,行业领先地位,健全的销售网络,造成,肥胖不利,健康,产,品召回事,件,(12/2009),积极进军发展中的市场,收购北美,CCE,着重销量和价格的结合,S,W,O,T,12,.,账目分析,-,Beneish Model,Ratio,Meaning,2010,2009,2008,DSRI,Indicate revenue inflation.,1.0402,1.2536,0.8415,GMI,Assess the gross margin sustainability.,1.0057,1.0027,0.9937,AQI,Imply capitalization of cost,1.3499,0.8749,0.8905,SGI,Suggest the companys growth character.,1.1332,0.9701,1.1070,DEPI,Show the possibility of change of depreciation rate.,1.2144,1.0041,0.9835,SGAI,Hint the abnormal deferred cost.,1.0568,0.9923,1.0007,LVGI,Evaluate the change of risk.,1.1568,0.9915,1.0204,TATA,Positively related to the likelihood of manipulation.,-0.0237,-0.2039,-0.0354,13,.,M-Score,2010,2009,2008,M-Score,-2.3271,-3.2719,-2.7523,Normsdist(M),1.00%,0.05%,0.30%,M=-4.840+0.920 x DSRI+0.528 x GMI+0.404 x AQI+0.892 x SGI+0.115 x DEPI-0.172 x SAI-0.327 x LVGI+4.679 x TATA,14,.,信用分析,-,Altman Z-score Model,Coefficient,Ratios(KO),Score(KO),Ratios(PEP),Score(PEP),(X,1,),NWC/assets,1.2,0.042,0.051,0.025,0.030,(X,2,),Retained earnings/Total assets,1.4,0.275,0.385,0.243,0.340,(X,3,),EBIT/Total assets,3.3,0.116,0.382,0.143,0.473,(X,4,),MV of equity/BV of total liability,0.6,3.597,2.158,2.180,1.308,(X,5,),Sales/Total assets,1,0.482,0.482,0.849,0.849,Z-Score,3.458,3.000,Z=1.2(X,1,)+1.4(X,2,)+3.3(X,3,)+0.6(X,4,)+1.0(X,5,),15,.,财务分析的两个工具,(Financial Analysis),比率分析,(Ratio Analysis),现金流分析,(Cash Flow Analysis),主要分,析损益表,(income statement),与资产负债表,(Balance Sheet),主,要分析现金流量表,(Cash Flow Statement),净利润率,ROE,资产,周转率,杠杆效应,可持续,增长率,16,.,分解,ROE,ROE decomposition,KO,KO,KO,PEP,PEP,PEP,Year,2010,2009,2008,2010,2009,2008,Net Profit Margin(ROS)(%),33.63,22.02,18.18,10.93,13.75,11.89,*Asset turnover,0.58,0.69,0.76,1.07,1.14,1.22,=Return on assets(ROA)(%),19.43,15.30,13.86,11.70,15.68,14.56,*Financial leverage,2.18,1.97,1.98,2.85,2.63,2.41,=Return on equity(%),42.33,30.15,27.51,33.36,41.25,35.15,17,.,ROE,第一个驱动因素,净利润率,(Net Profit Margin),Profitability Ratios,KO,KO,KO,PEP,PEP,PEP,Year,2010,2009,2008,2010,2009,2008,Gross profit margin(%),63.86,64.22,64.39,54.74,53.51,52.95,EBITDA margin(%),28.17,30.55,30.28,20.92,22.39,19.60,NOPAT margin(%),24.06,26.56,26.44,16.90,18.61,16.03,Net profit margin(%),33.63,22.02,18.18,10.93,13.75,11.89,18,.,ROE,第二个驱动因素,资产周转率,(Asset Turnover),Assets Management Ratios,KO,KO,KO,PEP,PEP,PEP,Year,2010,2009,2008,2010,2009,2008,Operating WC/Sales,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,Net non-current assets/Sales,0.42,0.31,0.26,0.33,0.29,0.27,Operating WC turnover,8.36,8.00,25.15,82.27,86.29,92.22,Net non-current assets turnover,2.89,3.47,3.80,3.65,3.55,3.78,Trade Receivables turnover,8.58,9.05,9.97,10.57,9.29,9.54,Days receivables,42.55,40.33,36.70,34.45,39.18,38.17,Inventories turnover,5.07,4.88,5.16,8.74,7.82,8.46,Days inventories,71.95,74.74,70.91,41.64,46.54,43.03,Trade payables turnover,1.67,1.75,1.73,2.83,2.46,2.59,Days payables,218.01,208.56,211.71,128.73,147.80,140.37,Asset turnover,0.58,0.69,0.76,1.07,1.14,1.22,19,.,ROE,第三个驱动因素,杠杆效应,(Financial Leverage),Liquidity ratios,KO,KO,KO,PEP,PEP,PEP,Year,2010,2009,2008,2010,2009,2008,Current ratio,1.17,1.28,0.94,1.11,1.44,1.23,Quick ratio,0.85,0.95,0.62,0.80,1.00,0.79,Cash ratio,0.61,0.67,0.38,0.40,0.47,0.26,Operating cash flow ratio,0.52,0.60,0.58,0.53,0.78,0.80,Financial leverage,2.18,1.97,1.98,2.85,2.63,2.41,20,.,ROE,第三个驱动因素,杠杆效应,(Financial Leverage),Debt and coverage ratios,KO,KO,KO,PEP,PEP,PEP,Year,2010,2009,2008,2010,2009,2008,Liabilities-to-equity,1.33,0.92,0.94,2.17,1.28,1.97,Debt-to-equity(%),74.77,46.79,44.65,115.93,45.09,67.96,Net debt-to-equity(%),38.57,10.44,20.78,86.27,21.38,49.15,Debt-to-capital(%),42.78,31.87,30.87,53.69,31.08,40.46,Net debt-to-net capital(%),23.70,8.78,16.54,35.92,16.31,24.53,Interest coverage(earning based),20.36,25.97,17.98,10.10,21.27,22.34,Interest coverage(cash flow based),17.26,29.81,22.01,12.45,23.41,27.98,21,.,可持续增长率,(Sustainable Growth Rate),Sustainable growth rate,KO,KO,KO,PEP,PEP,PEP,Year,2010,2009,2008,2010,2009,2008,ROE(%),42.33,30.15,27.51,33.36,41.25,35.15,Dividend payout ratio(%),34.40,55.61,60.63,47.91,46.55,50.35,Sustainable growth rate(%),27.77,13.38,10.83,17.38,22.05,17.45,22,.,现金流分析,(Cash Flow Analysis),Cash flow analysis,KO,KO,KO,PEP,PEP,PEP,Year,2010,2009,2008,2010,2009,2008,Cash From Operations,9532,8186,7571,8448,6796,6999,Cash From Investing Activities,-4405,-4149,-2363,-7668,-2401,-2667,Cash from Financing Activities,-3631,-1717,-4600,1220,-2516,-3178,Net Changes in Cash,1496,2320,608,2000,1879,1154,Opening Cash&Cash Equivalents,7021,4701,4093,3943,2064,910,Total Cash Flow,8517,7021,4701,5943,3943,2064,23,.,Common size Income Statement,2008,2009,2010,average,Revenue,sales,100.00%,100.00%,100.00%,100.00%,Cost&Expense,cost of sales,35.61%,35.78%,36.14%,35.84%,general&administration expense,34.85%,34.42%,36.42%,35.23%,Research&Development,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,Depreciation,3.11%,3.24%,3.38%,3.24%,Operating Income,26.44%,26.56%,24.06%,25.69%,Interest,Interest expense,1.37%,1.15%,2.09%,1.53%,Foreign Exchange Losses(Gains),0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,Net Non-Operating Losses(Gains),1.78%,-3.45%,-18.59%,-6.75%,Income before tax,23.29%,28.87%,40.56%,30.90%,Income tax,5.11%,6.58%,6.79%,6.16%,Net income,18.18%,22.28%,33.77%,24.74%,common share,7.24%,7.43%,6.53%,7.07%,Earnings per share,0.01%,0.01%,0.01%,0.01%,Dividends paid,11.02%,12.26%,11.58%,11.62%,Retained earnings,7.16%,10.02%,22.18%,13.12%,24,.,Common Size Balance Sheet,2008,2009,2010,Average,cash&cash equivalents,15.59%,29.73%,32.28%,25.87%,account receivable,9.67%,12.13%,12.61%,11.47%,inventories,6.85%,7.60%,7.55%,7.33%,total current assets,38.12%,56.63%,61.45%,52.07%,fixed assets,net fixed assets,25.78%,30.85%,41.93%,32.86%,Good will,12.61%,13.63%,33.22%,19.82%,intangible assets,22.82%,23.35%,27.31%,24.49%,other assets,61.21%,67.83%,102.46%,77.17%,total long-term assets,88.73%,100.42%,146.19%,111.78%,total assets,126.84%,157.05%,207.64%,163.85%,accounts payable,19.42%,21.48%,25.23%,22.04%,current debt,20.45%,21.94%,26.70%,23.03%,total current liabilities,40.66%,44.28%,52.70%,45.88%,long-term debt,8.71%,16.32%,39.98%,21.67%,other long-term liabilities,12.19%,14.67%,25.78%,17.55%,total long-term liabilities,20.90%,30.99%,65.76%,39.22%,total liabilities,61.56%,75.27%,118.47%,85.10%,common stock&additional paid in capital,27.69%,30.39%,31.14%,29.74%,retained earnings,36.39%,49.64%,57.14%,47.72%,total shareholders equity,65.29%,81.79%,89.17%,78.75%,total liabilities&shareholders equity,126.84%,157.05%,207.64%,163.85%,25,.,共同比,财务报表,分析,对,CCE,的兼并,为,$12.3b,($3.4b in equity&$8.8b in debt),可口可乐通过增加留存收益,来减小公司杠杆，偿还,收购所产生的长期债务,收购所产生的溢价被记录在商,誉中导致公司长期资产的增长,非经营收入,=,兼并所带来的债权收,入,+,公司将挪威和瑞典的包装生产,基地销售给,CCE,所得收入,($0.8b),可口可乐公司通过增长长期,债务的方式募集资金收购,26,.,公司经营财务预测假设,Assumptions,Click to add Title,每年的年销,售额增长率,保持过去,5,年的均值,公司会调整,其资本结,构到收购,前水平,假设报表中的数据都与年销售额有较稳定的关系,公司在预测年限内,稳定持续经营,预测的数据均根据与销售额比值的平均水平,27,.,Forecasted Income Statement,2011,2012,2013,Revenue,sales,38704.035,42655.039,47009.371,Cost&Expense,cost of sales,13872.58,15288.728,16849.439,G&A E,xpense,13634.024,15025.819,16559.692,Research&Development,0,0,0,Depreciation,1255.8596,1384.0609,1525.3492,Operating Income,9941.5703,10956.431,12074.89,Interest,Interest expense,593.9611,654.59412,721.41672,FX Losses(Gains),0,0,0,Net Non-Operating Losses(Gains),-2613.408,-2880.191,-3174.208,Income before tax,11961.017,13182.028,14527.682,Income tax,2384.176,2627.5586,2895.7863,Net income,9576.8414,10554.469,11631.896,common share,2734.5016,3013.6463,3321.2868,EPS,4.1635346,4.5885585,5.05697,Dividends paid,4498.429,4957.6398,5463.728,Retained earnings,5078.4124,5596.8293,6168.1676,28,.,Forecasted Results,29,.,Forecasted Balance Sheet,2011,2012,2013,cash&cash equivalents,10011.091,11033.048,12159.329,account receivable,4439.8592,4893.091,5392.5899,inventories,2836.7642,3126.3481,3445.4935,total current assets,20151.446,22208.556,24475.66,fixed assets,net fixed assets,12716.736,14014.892,15445.567,Good will,7670.9512,8454.0209,9317.0284,intangible assets,9479.9566,10447.694,11514.221,other assets,29867.644,32916.607,36276.816,total long-term assets,43263.5,47679.945,52547.233,total assets,63414.946,69888.501,77022.893,accounts payable,8531.8403,9402.7918,10362.652,current debt,8912.9606,9822.8178,10825.555,total current liabilities,17756.772,19569.427,21567.123,long-term debt,8387.3821,9243.5869,10187.195,other long-term liabilities,6791.6548,7484.9638,8249.0475,total long-term liabilities,15179.037,16728.551,18436.243,total liabilities,32935.808,36297.978,40003.365,common stock&additional paid in capital,11510.853,12685.91,13980.919,retained earnings,18470.529,20356.047,22434.042,total shareholders equity,30479.137,33590.523,37019.527,total liabilities&shareholders equity,63414.946,69888.501,77022.893,30,.,Forecasted Results,31,.,敏感性分析,(Sensitivity Analysis),2011,2012,2013,Difference in Revenue,1404.76,3090.47,5099.84,Difference in Net Income,347.59,764.70,1261.89,Difference in Assets,2301.64,5063.61,8355.88,Difference in Liabilities,1195.40,2629.89,4339.79,Difference in Equity,1106.24,2433.72,4016.09,Difference in Free Cash Flow,382.35,841.17,1388.08,当销售增长率分别为,8%,和,12%,的情况下各项的差值,32,.,正常销售增长率前提下，,3,年后可口可乐股权价值最少会增加,18%,敏感性分析与预测结果,(Sensitivity Analysis),在销售增长率不同情况下，估计项中各项数据最大差额小于对应项目初始值的,5%,在正常销售增长率前提下，,3,年后可口可乐总资产会在目前资产价值基础上增长,5%,正常销售增长率前提下，,3,年后可口可乐年销售额会增加,33%,33,.,通过财务报表和公司战略的分析，可口可乐能在行业继续保持其行业地位和竞争力,总结,(Conclusion),公司经营战略的调整有助于公司的长期发展,可口可乐公司的财务政策长期以来都很稳定,财务状况的短期浮动来自投资活动所产生的资金变动,通过市场状况的估计，可口可乐公司未来期间内股价可能会有较大波动，但长期发展趋势良好,34,.,Cheers!,Q&A,35,.,