2026年展望：人形机器人商业化.pdf

M IdeaChina Industrials|Asia Pacific2026 Outlook Humanoids:CommercializationMorgan Stanley Asia Limited+Sheng ZhongEquity Analyst Sheng.Zhong [phone] Carlos ChaiResearch Associate Carlos.Chai [phone] Serena ChenResearch Associate Serena.Chen [phone] Chelsea WangEquity Analyst Jinlin.Wang [phone] China IndustrialsAsia PacificIndustry ViewIn-Line Exhibit 1 :Catalyst tableDateKey EventJanuaryTesla 4Q25 Earnings Call(Jan 28)FebruaryTesla Optimus Gen 3 Unveil(Feb-Mar)Chinese New Year Gala(Feb 16)MarchChina Two Session,15th FYP(Mar 5)Nvidia GTC(Mar 16-19)China humanoid suppy chain earnings(Mar-Apr)No Specific DatePolicy:China/US Robotics PolicyCommercialization:-Mass volume commercial orders-Leading Integrators Production UpdatesFinancial Market:Humanoid Integrators IPOOther:-Tech Giants(Mag 7,BAT,Huawei,etc.)Events with Potential Humanoid Plans/Products-Model and Hardware Breakthrough Source:Morgan Stanley Research 2026 will be a critical year as humanoid integrators strive to reach commercialization and build up their ecosystems.Component suppliers will be first to profit from the industrys nascent growth.Capital markets will be very active,we believe,given the industrys rapid evolution and catalysts.Raising 2026 sales forecast:We are doubling our 2026 China humanoid robot sales volume forecast from 14k to 28k.We expect sales to businesses to be the key driver this year,taking over from government,R&D and entertainment-related sales last year.Production is likely to be materially larger than sales at this stage,as the major players are producing robots internally for training and verification,indicating the component market could reach scalable production earlier than previously thought.Our 10 key highlights for 2026:1.Broadening verification in almost every use case,in industrials,commercial services,healthcare,household,etc.2.Shake-out and first wave of consolidation start;finding commercialization cases is key to survival for integrators.3.Fast cost deflation.We estimate Chinas BoM costs will decline 16%YoY on average,despite increasing specs,owing to economies of scale and processing optimization.4.Brain development becomes the key focus of industry and capital markets,shifting from the body in 2025,and prototypes in 2024.5.Hardware ready for mass production;continuous iteration and cost reduction going forward.6.Dexterous hands to reliably perform multi-step specialized tasks in constrained industrial and service settings.7.Going global as commercialization starts in China.8.Humanoid integrator IPOs,driving up market interest in this sector.9.Catalyst-driven stock market volatility remains.10.Form factor pragmatism:Non-humanoid forms will see faster near-term commercialization,with better immediate ROI and stability.Stock implications:Component companies will increasingly realize revenues/profits from humanoid robots.We have upgraded Leaderdrive to OW(see report here),expecting a 25%/30%revenue contribution from humanoids in 2026/27.Other key component names we like are Hengli Hydraulic,Inovance and Shuanghuan.We update our China humanoid value chain stock list,with 46 names in total.Key downside risks are delays to leading humanoid companies commercialization and production,as well as technology(hardware/software)route changes.Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research.Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section,located at the end of this report.+=Analysts employed by non-U.S.affiliates are not registered with FINRA,may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company,public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.January 21,2026 09:04 PM GMTNot for redistribution without written consent of Morgan StanleyM Idea2Key Forecast/Story in Charts Exhibit 2:Insight from our AlphaWise survey indicates a strong adoption willingness amid industrys early stage,supporting the rapid use case verification process and initial adoption 12%29%21%38%Launching pilot orsignificant projectusing wheel-or leg-based robots by 2025Launching pilot orsignificant projectusing wheel-or leg-based robots by 2026Launching pilot orsignificant projectusing wheel-or leg-based robots by 2027No plans with eitherwheel-or leg-basedrobots at all%Share of Organizations Launching Projects with Wheel-or Leg-Based Humanoid Robots(Among Total Sample)Source:AlphaWise,Morgan Stanley Research.Total respondents n=86Exhibit 3:We estimate China deliveries will double to 28k units in 2026,but mostly on small-scale orders for verification and trials 122846911592622,59423,00720252026e2027e2028e2029e2030e2035e2040eChina Humanoid Sales(k unit)+85%CAGRSource:Morgan Stanley Research estimates.Note:This humanoid sales to external parties,we acknowledge and do not include prototype,internal R&D and use.For detail of our forecast,please see China Humanoid Market and Global Component TAM Forecast Exhibit 4:As supply chain capacity ramps up,we expect a 16%average cost reduction in 2026051015202530354045202520262027e2028e2029e2030e2035e2040eChina ASP and BoM(US$k)ASPBoM CostSource:Morgan Stanley Research estimatesExhibit 5:We expect humanoid components to be a US$780bn market by 20402 3 5 9 17 19 132 780 2025202620272028202920302035e2040eGlobal component TAM(US$bn)Global component TAM+52%CAGRSource:Morgan Stanley Research(e)estimatesExhibit 6:Key components include screws,reducers,motors and sensors 8%10%12%12%15%14%13%12%22%21%20%19%24%21%19%17%6%5%4%4%5%8%12%15%15%14%13%13%2026e2030e2035e2040eBoM Cost BreakdownOthersChipsBatteryBearingsCamerasSensor-Force/TactileMotorsReducerScrewSource:Morgan Stanley Research estimatesExhibit 7:Leaderdrive is expected to benefit most from humanoids 15%0%0%0%25%1%0%0%30%2%0%0%LeaderdriveHengliInovanceShuanghuanHumanoid Revenue Contribution2025e2026e2027eSource:Morgan Stanley Research estimates M IdeaMorgan Stanley Research3Exhibit 8:China suppliers are well positioned across the value chainSensorMotorIntegratorBrainReducerVision/LiDARBearingDexterous handsBatteryActuatorScrew SemiSource:Morgan Stanley ResearchM Idea4Exhibit 9:We update our China Humanoid Value Chain list with 46 stocks in total,including three in brains,32 in body components,and 11 integrators.We newly add Rongtai(screws),Sling(reducers),and remove Beite(screws)from the list Price Change1W3M YTDBrainBIDU-USBaidu Yu,Gary44,072149.50%28%14%Providing AI model ERINE 5.0,computing platform Brain002230-CNiFlytekShih,Sharon18,43158.6(4%)13%17%Offers full-stack“SuperBrain+Spark Desk”AI platform and multimodal model,taps into 450+robot makersBrain9660-HKHorizon RoboticsHsiao,Tim14,7989.2(2%)8%6%Its subsidiary D-Robotics launched system-on-chip(SoC)development kit RDK S100 for humanoids Actuator002050-CNSanhuaWang,Shelley33,30457.91%20%5%One of Tesla EV T1 suppliers,expects to book Rmb150mn in revenue from actuator R&D in 2025Actuator601689-CNTuopuWang,Shelley20,48682.112%15%6%One of Tesla EV T1 suppliers,developing humanoid actuators from 2022,recently dexterous hand motorsBattery300750-CNCATLLu,Jack223,287349.6(3%)(6%)(5%)CATL led the investment in Galbot,its leading powertrain solutions can be used to power humanoidsBattery002245-CNAzureNC2,86418.42%2%3%Azure is a battery supplier to Unitree,DeepRobotics,Fourier and other humanoids integratorsBearing300718-CNChangsheng NC3,61184.21%(5%)(1%)Provides bearing products,screw products under R&D/sample stage,in collaboration with UnitreeExterior603305-CNXushengWang,Shelley3,07018.5(12%)23%14%Working with humanoid players to supply casting parts,expects to book revenue from humanoid in 2025Hands003021-CNZhaowei NC4,475129.84%12%4%Offers dexterous hands and coreless motor;robotics business,including humanoids,is company key focusHands002979-CNLeadshineNC1,99644.2(1%)4%5%Investing Rmb500mn to develop and manufacture humanoid parts,released dexterous hands productLiDARHSAI-USHesaiHsiao,Tim3,74628.68%31%27%Delivered 200k units of robotics LiDAR in 2025LiDAR2498-HKRobosenseNC2,39638.63%7%5%Offers cameras/LiDAR,controllers designed for humanoids Magnets300748-CNJL MagZhang,Rachel6,78737.41%(3%)10%Investing US$144mn in Mexico factory citing growing demand for humanoids and EVsMotor300124-CNInovanceZhong,Sheng26,96079.41%0%5%Launched a series of humanoid components,also developing screw,linear actuator for humanoidsMotor600580-CNWolongNC10,60247.31%(1%)(4%)Received small order for frameless torque motor,partnership with Zhangjiang humanoid centerMotor603728-CNMoonsNC4,51075.03%7%4%Offers coreless motor,frameless torque motor,encoder,reducer products for humanoidsMotor688698-CNVeichiNC3,06999.9(6%)25%1%Formed JV with Rongtai in Thailand for robotics productsMotor688160-CNKincoNC1,943149.0(8%)77%(2%)Offers frameless torque motor for humanoids,collaborating with leading humanoid playersReducer002472-CNShuanghuanZhong,Sheng5,08646.93%9%(1%)Leading supplier of gears,currently used in other robotics,developing new reducer for humanoidsReducer688017-CNLeaderdriveZhong,Sheng5,698216.46%39%13%Holds leading market share in humanoid harmonic reducers,supplying to key domestic integratorsReducer603915-CNGuomao Zhong,Sheng1,73518.43%17%(0%)Supplier of planetary reducer for DeepRobotics(a leading quadruped robot player)Reducer002896-CNZhongdaLeaderNC2,47887.81%(1%)(2%)Certified supplier for a key domestic integrator,announced to invest Rmb200mn for precision core componentsReducer301550-CNSlingNC4,011198.010%145%43%Established production line for robotics,products include harmonic reducers,actuators,and bearingsScrew601100-CNHengli HydraulicZhong,Sheng22,120114.9(4%)24%5%Produces a variety of components including planetary roller screws,sent for client validationsScrew300100-CNShuanglinNC3,23939.4(2%)(0%)(0%)Developed roller screw products that can be used in humanoid,sent sample to clientsScrew603119-CNRongtaiNC3,359114.7(2%)21%(1%)To invest US$77mn in Thailand for 7mn sets of robotics components,formed JV with Veichi in Thailand for robotsScrew603667-CNXCCNC4,49685.53%103%22%To invest Rmb1.1bn for a new plant with an annual capacity of 980k sets of planetary roller screwsSemi603501-CNOmniVision Chan,Charlie23,086129.00%(0%)2%Its existing sensor technology can be easily applied to humanoids visionSemi688279-CNFortiorNC3,439228.919%22%12%Offers motor ASIC,driver IC,MCU,and established JV with Sanhua to develop dexterous handsSensor 600699-CNJoysonWang,Shelley6,27630.41%(8%)(3%)Developed 6-axis force sensors,tactile sensors,IMU,and has placed commercial orders for humanoid robotsSensor 603662-CNKeli NC2,83770.42%6%(2%)Developed 6-axis force sensor,and deploying humanoid robots in production lineSensor 300007-CNHanwei NC2,71257.7(3%)6%8%Focus on soft,flexible sensor,cooperating with multiple leading integratorsVision688322-CNOrbbecNC3,707100.08%17%12%Key stuctured light camera supplierVision688400-CNLuster LightTechNC1,44342.4(6%)4%0%Providing motion capturing solution-FZMotion for UnitreeIntegrator700-HKTencentYu,Gary703,209601.0(4%)(4%)0%Tencent established a Robotics X lab in Shenzhen in 2018,unveiled XiaoWuIntegratorBABA-USAlibabaYu,Gary391,201165.4(1%)(0%)13%Invested in Robotera,Ant Group(Alibaba affiliate)reportedly hiring engineers for humanoid robotIntegrator1810-HKXiaomiMeng,Andy98,00535.5(7%)(23%)(10%)Unveiled CyberOne in 2022Integrator1211-HKBYDHsiao,Tim93,26997.0(0%)(6%)2%Developing humanoid project-Yao Shun Yu,testing UBTECH humanoids;invested in PaxiniIntegrator300-HKMidea/KUKALou,Lillian84,93687.13%5%3%The 6-arm wheel-based humanoid entered its washing machine factory IntegratorXPEV-USXPENGHsiao,Tim15,93620.7(2%)(3%)2%Its humanoid robot-Iron,is expected to enter mass production stage in 2026Integrator002747-CNEstunZhong,Sheng3,15025.20%8%6%One of Huaweis 16 partners,developed humanoid motors,unveiled humanoid Codroid 02Integrator9880-HKUBTECH NC7,737139.46%3%10%Humanoid pure play,launched Walker S2,Tiangong Walker,introduced BrainNet for humanoid collaborationIntegrator2432-HKDobotNC1,94838.61%(19%)2%Unveiled Dobot Atom in March 2025,collaborating with Tencent Cloud to develop VLAIntegrator002779-CNZhongjianNC3,079116.07%(6%)2%One of Huaweis 16 partners,invested in 1X,launched quadruped robot P1OEM002600-CNLingyi iTechShih,Sharon16,18115.4(9%)4%(1%)OEM for multiple integrators,will invest Rmb50mn in components and assembly capacityLast Close(LCY)TickerCompanyAnalystNotes Market Cap Source:FactSet,Morgan Stanley Research Note:Data as of January 20,2026 close.This is a constantly evolving list of Chinese companies involved in humanoids.Companies are included based on the following criteria:(1)MS covered companies;(2)Non-MS covered companies-either announced cooperation with key humanoid companies,or a certain revenue level in products to be applied in humanoid robots.Results shown represent return excluding dividends,brokerage commissions and transaction costs.These figures are not audited.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.For important disclosures regarding companies that are the subject of this screen,please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure Website at M IdeaMorgan Stanley Research5China Humanoid Market and Global Component TAM Forecast The humanoid sales figures in our forecast represent external sales only.We do not include humanoids that are produced for prototypes,pre-order trials,or internal R&D and uses,due to the uncertain commercial value.But we do factor them into the larger production volume for the component TAM model,considering component suppliers benefit no matter what the end use is.China Humanoid Market We revise up our near-term forecast considering the following factors:1.Higher 2025 humanoid sales figures according to Omdia (an independent global technology research and advisory firm)2.Verification phase likely to continue in 2026/27:As discussed above,we expect China integrators to push trials in as many applications as possible.2026(and likely 2027)will continue to see fast order growth,but mainly from one-off small-scale orders.3.Fading R&D and entertainment hype:While commercialization testing takes time,we think demand from R&D and entertainment(which contribute a significant amount of sales currently)will weaken in 2026/27,particularly as the humanoid novelty gradually wears off.4.Scaling in specific applications starting in 2028:Humanoids can only handle specific tasks with limited generalization capabilities.But after accumulating enough data,developing practical models with proven commercial value in 2026/27,we expect a wave of scale adoption starting in 2028.Humanoids will become a small part of the workforce,w