以新能源为主体的零碳电力系统.pdf

Zero carbon power system based primarily on renewable energyWhite PaperWe support the Sustainable Development Goals3Executive summaryThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has stated that“it is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere,ocean and land”,and that“the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrationsrequires a fundamental transformation of the energy supply system”.Decarbonizing,or reducing the carbon intensity of,the electricity sector is a key component of reducing these greenhouse gas emissions.This white paper considers the challenge of decarbonizing the power system,the resulting required transition ahead,and what this may mean for the IEC,its members and the standards it produces,which guide the worlds electrotechnology sector.Exposure to a variety of pressures means power systems around the world are already changing and have been doing so for some years.Power system operators,users and other stakeholders are facing a once-in-a-lifetime level of profound challenges,ranging from the need to significantly increase capacity to support the global replacement of fossil fuels sources with electricity,to the uptake of new generation devices such as solar,wind and marine energy generation,to dramatically shifting generation and load profiles,and significant changes in the control and communications equipment used in the network itself.Commitments towards net zeroOver 130 countries around the world have committed to a goal of carbon neutrality or net zero carbon emissions,and many more have committed to significant reductions in their energy intensity.These commitments,to be met over the coming decades,will only accelerate the changes already seen in power systems.The challenge of net zeroFundamentally,a commitment to net zero carbon emissions has profound implications for the electrical power system of a nation.The electricity sector is one of the highest sources of emissions in most nations and is also often considered the sector most readily decarbonized.Thus,a national countrys net zero carbon goal can be taken to also mean a goal of net zero carbon for the electricity or power sector.Furthermore,the transition of other economic sectors such as transport,towards lower carbon goals will have a significant flow-on impact on the power sector.Realization of a net zero carbon power system is an incredible challenge.At the time of writing,carbon-emitting generation sources make up over 60%of electricity supply around the world.The removal of these emissions,and the need to add carbon-free capacity to meet new electrical demands,will require an immense amount of work across a very broad range of topics.Effort will be required in policy and law,regulation,standardization,and technology development.The implications of net zeroA net zero power system will look very different to the power system of today.A net zero power system will rely on large amounts of wind and solar generation,perhaps nuclear,hydro or marine generation,and will involve much more energy storage capacities,from pumped-hydro to batteries.Fossil fuel generators will either be phased out or converted to zero carbon operation.The broader requirement of net zero carbon emissions will likely see many new loads appearing on the power system.Industries from transport 4Executive summaryto manufacturing will convert from fossil-fuelled equipment,such as boilers or combustion engines,to electrically-driven processes.Space heating for homes and buildings will transition away from fossil fuels to electrical heating including the use of heat pump technology.These new loads will dramatically increase demand on the power system some estimates have countries such as Canada needing to more than double system capacity by 2050.If managed carefully,the increase in demand may also assist with power system operation and the integration of variable renewable energy generation.Generation and load profiles in the power system will be much more dynamic,with significant swings from very low consumption to high consumption throughout a day,and seasonally.This will require generation to be much more flexible in order to match supply with rapidly changing demand,and it is likely some loads will be dynamically managed to match supply.A net zero power system will have far less rotating inertia than the traditional power system that relied on large rotating machines with significant mechanical inertia.In order to maintain system security and ensure the reliable operation of protection devices across the power system,generators and storage devices that rely on power electronic interconnection(such as solar and wind generators,or batteries)will need to emulate the operational characteristics of rotating machines.This will require new operational approaches and regulatory or other incentives to see these operational modes built into the machines and systems deployed.These changes mean the transition to a net zero power system will require the power system to change in multiple dimensions.Generation will need to move to zero carbon operation.The control of electricity generation will be much more closely integrated with the control of loads and storage.Lastly,the power system control technologies will need to become more sophisticated,taking advantage of the latest digital technologies to manage a power system that is much more complex than those before it.The technologies of a zero carbon power systemMultiple studies have shown that in many nations,hydro,wind and solar are the cheapest forms of carbon-free generation.These technologies are generally well understood.The key challenge ahead is not so much the operation of wind and solar generation,but rather their integration into the power system,and the reliable operation of a power system with very large portions of supply coming from wind and solar generators.Wind and solar generation need to be located where the wind and solar resource is available.In some cases,this will be at greater distances from electricity load centres,requiring significant transmission infrastructure to carry energy to where it is used.In other cases,solar and wind may be available close to load centres,and this will reduce the need for significant long distance transmission infrastructure.The electricity distribution system will need to absorb massive amounts of distributed renewable generation,electric vehicles,heat pumps and local energy storage.This has significant repercussions on the design of the power system,which will now need to enable significantly varying and bi-directional power flows.Meeting this challenge will require new sensing and control schemes and the provision of very large amounts(ranging from seconds to seasons)of energy storage.A variety of other generation technologies have potential to assist in the transition to zero carbon.These include nuclear energy(including small modular nuclear reactors),and highly efficient and flexible coal or gas generators partnered with carbon capture utilization and storage.These technologies remain in their infancy,and many challenges still exist to their widespread uptake,not the least of which is the cost involved.5Executive summaryWhile much analysis of the path to zero carbon power systems focuses on the energy generation and storage technologies on the“supply side”of the system,consideration of the“demand”side of the power system will become increasingly important.In simply reducing the amount of energy needed to be generated,energy efficiency measures will have a key role in the transition to zero carbon and have been legislated by most countries around the world.Demand-side integration technologies,which seek to actively and dynamically manage the load on the power system,will also have an increasing role,helping to reduce emissions,avoid infrastructure upgrades,enable end customers to make choices in their energy usage and investment,and ensure power system reliability.Power systems will become more“digitalized”,with new information and communication technologies being introduced across all reaches of the power system.Similarly,this digitalization will impact all operational processes within the system.Technologies such as edge computing,data analytics and the industrial Internet of Things will allow for better monitoring and control,improved energy provisioning and faster response to faults.The benefits provided will help accelerate the transition to net zero carbon operation.Standards implications of the transition to zero carbonTo ensure that energy systems,platforms,devices and markets can transition and work effectively in a zero carbon power system,standards have a critical role to play,ensuring interoperability,maintaining a minimum level of performance and safety,and helping guide the transition towards new technologies and operating regimes.While a range of standards exist today that are relevant to the zero carbon vision,a zero carbon power system will require a broad range of new standards to ensure reliable,efficient and resilient system operation.The standards required cover a broad spectrum,ranging from standards for new technologies,such as offshore wind generation,to standards for facilitating the much tighter integration between generation and demand that will occur in the power system of the future.These standards must not only support integration within the power system itself,but also interactions between the power system and both consumers of energy and external providers of energy services to the power system.Given the massive complexity of a zero carbon power system,a systems approach will need to be taken.System standards are likely to be needed considering requirements such as the environment,safety and health.To meet climate targets,the transition to a zero carbon power system needs to happen very rapidly,much faster in fact than many of the changes seen in the power system over recent decades.If standards and regulation lag the rollout of new technologies in the power system,there is a significant risk of delayed implementation,inefficiency,misapplication,major outage,technical failures or other harm.Standards and regulatory change often happen at a pace significantly slower than some of the changes occurring in the journey to zero carbon power systems.Thus,in this journey,as well as a need for new standards,there is also a need to consider the processes of creating new standards and regulation,so that these processes can(at the very least)keep up with the pace of change of technology and the short timeframes involved in the transition of the power system to net zero.The abundance of new technologies in a zero carbon power system,and the convergence of distributed resources and non-power system technologies with large-scale power system infrastructure,will require a more top-down approach to standardization.This should be based on a systems approach that starts at the overall system architecture level,rather than the traditional bottom-up approach that focuses on individual components.6Executive summaryThis white paper is structured as follows:Section 1 introduces the massive changes occurring in the worlds power systems,the white paper and its aim.Section 2 considers the forces that are driving power systems to transition to net zero.Section 3 reviews what a zero carbon power system may look like.Section 4 considers the various pathways to a zero carbon power system.Section 5 introduces the technologies that will underpin the realization of a reliable,economic net zero power system.Section 6 considers what the changes discussed in the previous section mean for the IEC,its stakeholders and standards work.Section 7 concludes the paper and provides some key recommendations.Net zero carbon power systems are no longer a remote possibility of some distant future.Many countries around the world have committed to net zero carbon emissions targets,and a variety of pressures mean that power systems around the world are changing dramatically.These changes have profound implications for all IEC stakeholders from system operators to equipment manufacturers and service providers,or power system end-users.Understanding the changes detailed in this paper,the new technologies,operating principles and standards requirements involved,will ensure that the IEC remains at the forefront of the evolution now underway.7Executive summaryAcknowledgmentsThis white paper has been prepared by a project team representing a variety of organizations,working under the IEC Market Strategy Board.The project team included representatives from electrical power network businesses,standards organizations,and equipment vendors from around the world.The project sponsor was Dr Jianbin Fan,from the State Grid Corporation of China and an IEC Market Strategy Board member.Project coordination was by Peter J Lanctot,Secretary of the IEC Market Strategy Board.Coordinating author and project partner was Dr Glenn Platt from N.OGEE consulting.The project team members were(in alphabetical order):Mr Carlos Alvarez-Ortega,HuaweiProf Zhaohong Bie,Xian Jiaotong University,ChinaMr George Borlase,ULMr Jonathan Colby,Streamwise DevelopmentMr Qixiang Fan,China Huaneng GroupDr Qi Guo,China Southern Power GridDr Hao Hu,State Grid Corporation of ChinaMr Yun Chao Hu,HuaweiMr Hua Huang,State Grid Shanghai Research InstituteMr Hirokazu Ito,Tokyo Electric Power CompanyMr Qun Li,State Grid Jiangsu Research InstituteMr Gang Lin,Huaneng Yangtze Environmental Technology CompanyMr Tianyang Liu,China Huaneng Group Carbon Neutrality Research InstituteMr Zhong Liu,China Southern Power GridMr Geert Maes,HuaweiMr Andrew McConnell,CitiPower,Powercor and United EnergyDr Luc Meysenc,Schneider ElectricMr Jedong Noh,EnSTAR Ltd.Mr Ju-Myon Park,ZeroEN Ltd.Mr Salvatore Pugliese,Italian Electrotechnical Committee(CEI)Mr Hai Qian,China Southern Power GridMr Ke Sun,Economic Research Institute of State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power CompanyMr Jon Sojo,Tratos Ltd.Mr Pascal Terrien,EDFMr Sebastiaan Van Dort,British Standards InstitutionProf Dirk Van Hertem,KU LeuvenMr Ivano Visintainer,Italian Electrotechnical Committee(CEI)Mr Di(Andy)Wang,HuaweiMr Ziwei Wang,Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower IncMr Hee-Jeong Yim,Korean Agency for Technology and StandardsMs Ellen Yin,HuaweiDr Wedian Youssef,Schneider ElectricMr Guoxin Yu,HaierMr Liang Zhao,China Huaneng Group Carbon Neutrality Research InstituteMr Dehua Zheng,Goldwind9Table of contentsExecutive summary 3List of abbreviations 13Glossary 17Section 1 Introduction 191.1 Background 191.2 Scope and definitions 211.3 Structure 22Section 2 The zero carbon power system:driving factors and market needs 232.1 Climate change 232.2 Achieving net zero 232.3 Government policy 242.3.1 Africa 252.3.2 Australia 252.3.3 China 262.3.4 France 262.3.5 Italy 272.3.6 Japan 272.3.7 Republic of Korea 282.3.8 The United States 282.4 Market changes 292.5 Reliable power supply 302.6 Affordable and economic