2020德国汽车产业报告.pdf

The automotive industry in facts and figuresAnnual Report 2020Annual Report 2020.The automotive industry in facts and figures.ForewordThe coronavirus pandemic poses challenges to all areas of life that we have not experienced since the Federal Republic of Germany came into existence.The economic consequences for the people in our country are also often farreaching and for many without precedent.As the key industry in Germany,it is the primary goal of the automotive sector to remain the driving force in the transformation to the mobility of the future.Europe can and must be the continent that combines an effective climate protection policy with an efficient economic and industrial policy.The automotive industry wants to be a key driver of innovation and jobs and is committed to the goal of climate neutrality by the year 2050.The way out of the crisis towards the“mobility of the future,”combined with the complexity of digitalization,will challenge us all to the greatest possible extent.There are still challenging times ahead for the German automotive industry and for many of our companies.The road to tomorrows mobility consists of several paths.It is a matter of using digitalization to shape networked and automated driving.But we also need a circular economy in which materials are designed for reuse right from the development stage,and in which we use raw materials in a resourceconserving manner.And last but not least,the aim is to reduce CO2 emissions in the transport sector with an intelligent and demand oriented mix of drive technologies in line with Paris climate protection goals.Concepts for the mobility of the future are needed that are geared to the reality of peoples lives and their individual needs in the city as well as in the countryside.Tomorrows mobility will also grow out of innovations that are not only associLadies and gentlemen,dear readers,ated with the car:artificial intelligence opens the door to automated driving safer and more efficiently than ever before.Digital platforms allow us to combine the most diverse mobility solutions tailored to every situation.New communication technologies allow the exchange of data between people,vehicles and infrastructures.In addition,the expansion of renewable energies is an important basis for our industry to play its part in making transport climateneutral by 2050.The development of these technologies is a joint task of science,companies from all sectors and policymakers,who must set the framework for achieving this.For example,the comprehensive expansion and restructuring of our infrastructure is an absolute prerequisite to ensure Germany not only remains globally competitive,but is also a leader.The German automotive industry is today already heavily involved in all the technology fields of tomorrow.Over 130,000 people work in the research and development departments of manufacturers and suppliers.More than every third euro invested in research and development by the German economy comes from the automotive industry.By spending EUR 50 billion on new drive systems alone and a further EUR 25 billion on digitalization by 2024,our industry is investing heavily in transformation.But if the driving force of the EU economy does not soon restart vigorously,liquidity will become scarce in more and more companies especially in our mediumsized member companies from the supplier and commercial vehicle sector.As a result,the funds for important future investments will be lacking.The effects of the coronavirus and a significant cyclical downturn have dealt a severe blow to the commercial vehicle markets in particular.In view of this very difficult situation,we expect the German government to support a European fleet renewal program for heavyduty commercial vehicles or to tackle this project at national level.The German governments economic stimulus package to deal with the economic consequences of the coronavirus crisis rightly contains a clear technology and infrastructure policy component.Nevertheless,in addition to the commitment announced by policymakers,we also need a monitoring of results to ensure that the nationwide 5G networks planned for 2025 are actually built;that the potential of hydrogen as a climatefriendly energy carrier is tested in all sectors;and that the rampup of electromobility is not slowed down by a lack of charging infrastructure.The German automotive industry supports the Paris climate protection goals and the EU goal of becoming the first climateneutral continent by 2050.The EU Commissions European Green Deal basically opens up the possibility of not only driving climate protection policy forward more ambitiously,but also more effectively.However,the“2030 Climate Target Plan”presented in September 2020 still raises questions.The EU Commission wants to reduce EUwide CO2 emissions by at least 55 percent by 2030 the previous plan was to cut emissions by 40 percent.In this context,the CO2 fleet limits for passenger cars,which were only adopted two years ago,are to be tightened from minus 37.5 percent to minus 50 percent by 2030.This means that the new car fleet will then be allowed to have an average fuel consumption of just over two liters.This extremely ambitious target will probably only be achievable if the proportion of electric vehicles rises to at least 60 percent of new cars within ten years.This will require a committed,rapid and comprehensive expansion of the charging infrastructure throughout Europe!This also requires political action.Wrongly implemented,the course of the EU Commission,especially against the background of the coronavirus crisis,can further aggravate the already discernible economic and social burdens and endanger jobs as well as the competitiveness of companies and thus Europe.By 2030,the focus will be on a rapid rampup of electromobility.Particularly in view of the major goal of climateneutral transport,however,we will need all drive options including efuels and hydrogen,for example.We need these in order to address the existing fleet.The great challenge of combating climate change can only be met if we are open to all technologies.In our view,a tightening of climate targets means that hydrogen and regenerative fuels will have to be used much more in the future than they have been up to now.After all,they affect the entire vehicle fleet,not just new registrations.In addition,the modern and highly efficient combustion engine,preferably also as a hybrid,will be needed for many years to come.With efuels,it can make a contribution to climateneutral mobility.As this VDA Annual Report shows,we draw our strength from the diversity of our industry.From companies that drive innovation and already have the solution for the day after tomorrow in mind.From companies in the passenger car and commercial vehicle industry,manufacturers of buses,trailers and bodies,and the supply industry,some of which can look back on more than 100 years of experience and success.And from emerging companies such as development service providers and startups,which are asking with a fresh perspective whether things could be done in a completely different way.In many areas,we are very successful in turning ideas into usable products and bringing them to market nationwide.In some areas,especially in the digital sector,we can do even better.Here,we need to forge further alliances in order to develop forwardlooking solutions.Shaping futureproof mobility that is climatefriendly,environmentally and economically sustainable,socially minded and customized is a historic task.But the German automotive industry has everything it takes to achieve this!An industrial core that is unique in this form worldwide,with a mixture of large companies and many powerful,successful mediumsized companies throughout the country.Excellent research facilities,creative founders,developers and engineers who are also leaders in the field that is of key importance right now:Transforming innovations into practical applications.As you read the VDA Annual Report,I hope you will discover exciting insights into the many different topics and challenges that the VDA and its members face together.I look forward to engaging in dialog with you!Hildegard Mller,President Verband der Automobilindustrie e.V.2FOREWORDFOREWORD3Annual Report 2020.The automotive industry in facts and figures.4CONTENTCONTENT54 010205040306Automotive Industry and its Markets 8Current State of the Automotive Business:First Half of 2020 10The 2019 Automotive Year:Key Figures and Data 12Research and Development 14International Markets 15German Market 18Production and Export of German Car Manufacturers 20Economic Situation of the Supply Industry 22Suppliers and Small and Mediumsized Enterprises 23Economic Situation of the Commercial Vehicle Industry 27Markets for Commercial Vehicles and Buses 28Markets for Trailers and Bodies(incl.Employment)30VDAs Manufacturer Group II and its Emphasis on Small and Mediumsized Enterprises 31The Chinese Market and its Peculiarities 32Significance of the Aftermarket 34Automotive Banks and Leasing Companies Offer Stability during the Crisis 40ContentEconomic and Climate Policies 43Economic Situation in Germany 44European Policy 46Road Transport on Its Way to Climate Neutrality 48Passenger Car Energy Efficiency 52The“European Green Deal”:Challenges for the Automotive Industry 54Efuels as the Perfect Complement to Electromobility 56Assessment of the National Hydrogen Strategy 59CO2 Regulations for Heavyduty Commercial Vehicles,Trailers,Bodies 60Mass and Dimensions of Commercial Vehicles 62Trade and Foreign Economic Activity 64Brexit 66Foreign Economic Activity 70Promotion of Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation 76Traffic and Infrastructure 80Infrastructure 82Passenger Traffic 85Future Mobility 86Taxes,Customs,Legal Policies 91Tax Policies 92Legal Policies 96Environmental Policies and Air Quality 102Air Quality and Air Pollution Control 104Climate and Environmental Policies for Germany as an Industrial Location 1066CONTENT6 070809Innovation and Technology 110Diesel,Gasoline and Hybrid Engines 112Combustion Engine Fuel Consumption and Emissions 114European Emission Legislation and Pollutant Reduction Technology 116EU Type Approval 121Development of Electromobility in Germany 122Other Alternative Drives 128Networked and Automated Driving 130Research Association for Automotive Technology(FAT)134Production and Logistics 138Safety and Standards 140Traffic Accidents in Germany 142Safety Systems for Commercial Vehicles 144Existing eCall Transmission Networks Must Be Maintained 146Quality 147Automated Driving Safety 154Standardization Roadmap for Automated and Networked Driving at VDA and NPM 156Driver Assistance Systems(State of Standardization)157Sensor Interfaces for the Integration of Complex Sensor Setups for Automated Driving 160Information and Data Security 162IAA and Other Events 164The IAA 2021:New Thinking,New Format,New City 166IAA 2019 the Transformation into an Event Platform for Mobility 168Additional VDA Events 172Index 175List of figures and tables 176Coping with the coronavirus crisis and the transformation of the industry requires an enormous amount of effort on the part of companies in the automotive industry.Automotive Industry and its Markets0110AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY AND ITS MARKETSAUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY AND ITS MARKETS11Current State of the Automotive Business:First Half of 2020The coronavirus pandemic has plunged the global economy into its deepest crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.This recession,which was triggered almost simultaneously worldwide,lacks any direct historical comparison.COVID19 exposed the entire value chain to an unprecedented stress test.After production in China was initially restricted and deliveries from China,which are usually transported by ship,failed to materialize,the virus spread to Europe.The ensuing restrictions on travel and the associated traffic jams at Europes internal borders,combined with the closure of trade,meant that production came to a standstill in many European countries.The health policy measures necessary to contain the pandemic caused massive slumps in overall economic development worldwide in the first and second quarters of 2020.In the eurozone,for example,the largest drop in GDP since the beginning of the time series was recorded(12.1 percent).In the United States,the crisis also had a massive impact on economic activities(32.9 percent,annualized growth rate,therefore not directly comparable).Assuming that there are no further widespread lockdowns in these regions,the crisis is likely to bottom out in the first half of 2021,although the further course of the pandemic is not foreseeable.The impact of the pandemic on the international automobile markets to date is serious.In the first half of 2020,sales worldwide suffered a massive slump.The parallel decline in most markets caused by the coronavirus is historically unprecedented.In the major sales regions of China,the USA and Europe(EU27&EFTA&the UK),a total of 7.5 million fewer passenger cars were sold than in the same period last year.This represents a 28 percent drop in sales.In Japan,demand fell by a fifth.In Russia and Brazil,sales also plunged massively.Although the Chinese market is now on the road to recovery following a similarly massive slump somewhat earlier,it too recorded a drop of 23 percent after the first six months.In some European countries,car sales came to an almost complete standstill in April and May.Closed dealerships and registration offices across almost all countries caused new passenger car registrations in Europe to fall by 67 percent.In Italy,Spain and the United Kingdom,sales have since fallen by 97 percent or more.In the first half of 2020,new pas senger car registrations in Germany fell by almost 35 percent to 1.21 million passenger cars.This is the lowest firsthalf figure in Germany since reunification 30 years ago.At the beginning of the second half of the year,there were signs of recovery in parts of Europe,although these were also favored by statistical distortions in a yearonyear comparison.Production also came to a standstill in many places.Only ten thousand passenger cars were produced in Germany in April(also 97 percent).The dramatic slump in demand,the temporary disruption of supply chains and production stops lasting for weeks The measures necessary to contain the pandemic have caused a massive slump in overall economic development worldwide.New passenger car registrations in Germany fell by almost 35 percent in the first half of 2020.Only eleven thousand cars were produced in Germany in April 2020.meant that passenger car production in Germany in the first half of the year fell to its lowest level in 45 years.From January to June,almost 1.5 million vehicles were produced at the German sites,40 percent fewer than in the same period last year.Car exports developed similarly.In the first six months of the year,they slumped by 40 perc