意大利储能市场.pdf

Analysis of the Battery Storage MarketITALYThis report is part of a series that analyses the battery storage market in select European countries.To access the other reports,visit our website at:www.e3analytics.eu/project/eu-storage-market-analysesAcknowledgementsCopyright:E3 Analytics,May 2023 Design and Layout:Hot Ice Creative StudioAuthors:Toby D.Couture Javier Pamos Serrano Joseph ThomasThe research and analysis conducted for this report were supported by the European Climate Foundation.Photo CreditsCover:stefanotermanini/Adobe Stock;3:annems/Adobe Stock;10:rarrarorro/Adobe Stock;13:monsitj/Adobe Stock;18:Oscargutzo/Adobe Stock;19:Silvano Rebai/Adobe Stock3Italys battery storage market has become one of the largest andmost dynamic in Europe Italy has both a rapidly growing utility-scale market as well as a flourishing customer-sited battery storage market.Customer-sited storage adoption has been mainly driven by a combination of high electricity prices and generous tax incentives.For utility-scale systems,Italy has established favourable electricity market rules that enable projects to earn revenues from a range of different sources.The ability to generate revenues from the provision of multiple services(so-called“revenue stacking”)significantly improves the bankability of battery storage projects.14Italys total battery storage capacity grew almost 4-fold in 2022Cumulative Growth in Battery Storage Capacity(MWh)2 As of the end of 2022,battery storage capacity in Italy reached 1.530 MW/2.752 MWh,spread across more than 227.000 battery storage systems.2 Over 99%(225.000)of these systems employ Li-Ion batteries.3 3 0002 5002 0001 5001 00050002015pre 201520172019201620182020202120229559194261153027202 752MWhItalys electricity supply is dominated by fossil fuels,but the share of solar and wind is growingTotal installed capacity in 2022 (all sources)4118 GWShare of wind and solar in the electricity mix(2022)16%Italys Electricity Mix(2021)Total Demand=317 TWh5,6 Fossil Fuel Power Plants58%Biomass and MSW 6%Wind 7%Solar PV 9%Geothermal 2%Hydropower 15%Other 3%6Smaller battery systems currently dominate the market Battery storage projects between 515 kWh make up the bulk of Italys battery storage market.In most cases,these systems are customer-sited and coupled with solar PV systems.By the end of 2022,there were only 10 larger-scale battery storage systems over 500 kWh connected to the grid,though dozens of utility-scale projects are now in the pipeline for 2023 and 2024.7 Number of Battery Storage Systems by Size Category(kWh)510kWh500kWh1015kWh1520kWh2025kWh2550kWh50100kWhSystem Size Category102108 34475 264499 70724 34879 51430 0317Tax incentives have fueled a surge of customer-sited storage adoption in recent yearsItaly offers two main categories of tax incentives,both of which take the form of income tax deductions:8 Super bonus(110%)Renovation bonus(50%)For example,in the case of the super bonus,if the cost of a residential PV+storage installation is EUR 10.000,the customer will be entitled to a tax deduction equal to EUR 11.000 on their yearly income tax declaration.The effect of the introduction of the super bonus in early 2021 is clearNumber of battery storage projects installed by quarter9 60 00050 00040 00030 00020 00010 0000Q1 2019Q1 2020Q1 2021Q1 2022Q2 2019Q2 2020Q2 2021Q2 2022Q3 2019Q3 2020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q4 2019Q4 2020Q4 2021Q4 2022Superbonus 110%Storage adoption has been accelerated by Italys high electricity pricesItalys electricity prices for households currently stand at just over EUR 0.30/kWh on average.10,11,12 DenmarkUKGermanyItalySpainIrelandGreeceFrancePolandCroatiaBulgariaEU/kWh0.450.400.350.300.250.200.150.100.0509The utility-scale market has benefitted from high electricity wholesale prices and growing concerns over energy security Italy had the highest average day-ahead market prices of any country in the EU in 2022.13 Italys high electricity market prices are largely driven by its heavy reliance on fossil gas for power generation.As the price of gas soared in the wake of Russias invasion of Ukraine,electricity prices in Italy surged,reaching an all-time high of EUR 540/MWh in August 2022.14 Average Day-Ahead Electricity Prices in Italy(per MWh)140 TWh5 TWh10 TWh15 TWh20 TWh25 TWh30 TWh0/MWh100/MWh200/MWh300/MWh400/MWh500/MWh600/MWh135791113579111357911135792019202020212022Apenine volumeApenine baseload priceApenine peakload price10Italys electricity market rules enable battery storage projects to compete in different marketsIn Italy,the government and the Italian TSO(Terna)have developed several electricity market products where storage projects are able to compete and provide services to the power system.Utility-scale storage projects can currently earn revenues from three different markets:the capacity market15 the fast reserve market16 the ancillary services market17 4 0003 5002 000 1 5001 000500011Battery storage projects made a breakthrough inItalys latest capacity auction roundAfter earning modest shares within previous capacity market auctions,storage projects secured over 30%(1.121 MW/2.032 MWh)of the total capacity allocated in the latest auction held in late 2022.18Despite this breakthrough,concerns remain:although capacity market auctions are designed to encourage competition,fully 94%of the new storage capacity contracted in the last auction is owned by energy giant Enel.18Italys Capacity Market Results(20222024)18,19,20202220232024Capacity MWMixed ThermalThermal Contribution PlantSolar concentratedPV+StorageThermal Power PlantPumpingGas Turbine PlantBattery StorageNGCC12The Fast Reserve Market has provided further revenue opportunities for storage projectsIn 2020,Italian TSO Terna created a new capacity market for fast response ancillary services.The framework was developed specifically for battery storage technologies:21 Market size:250 MW The auction granted a five-year contract extending from 20232027 The auction followed a pay-as-bid scheme The reserve requires approximately 1.000h of availability.The auction resulted in prices between 23.00027.000/MW/year on the mainland,and over 61.000/MW/year in Sardinia.22 TSO=Transmission System OperatorFast reserve auction results202320272270 00060 00050 00040 00030 00020 00010 0000Weighted average price/MW/yearCentre-NorthCentre-SouthSardinia 23 418 27 279 61 016 13The ancillary services market offers an additional source of potential revenues for operators In addition,storage technologies can participate in providing ancillary services on a day-ahead basis,as well as one hour ahead for the balancing market.23 When electricity prices are volatile,as they were throughout much of 2022,participation in the balancing market can provide attractive returns for storage system operators.In Ternas ancillarys services market,Terna acts as a central counterparty and winning offers are remunerated on a pay-as-bid basis.14Italys National Energy and Climate Plan(NECP)includes specific targets for storage technologies Italys storage targetsItalys target for the share of renewable electricity by 203055%Utility-scale 34 GWCustomer-sited4.5 GW Italys NECP targets between 7.5 GW and 8.5 GW of energy storage by 2030,of which 4.5 GW is expected to come from customer-sited storage systems.24 The remaining 34 GW is expected to come from utility-scale systems.By 2050,Italy aims to achieve 30-40 GW of storage capacity.15Despite the markets significant growth,Italy still has a long way to go to reach its national storage targets There are significant regional differences in the adoption of battery storage systems across the country.Northern Italy(Lombardy,Venetia and Emilia Romagna)currently account for over 50%of the market.25 While most distributed battery adoption is occurring in the north,most of the larger-scale storage projects are in the south and on Italys largest island,Sardinia.Distributed-scale Battery Capacity(MWh)25NECP Targets2022NorthNorth-CentreSouth-CentreSouthCalabriaSicilySardinia1 0003 0005 0007 0002 0004 0006 0008 00016Recent policy developments remain supportive of continued customer-sited battery adoption Italys super bonus tax incentive scheme is planned to continue until 2025,though the percentage share that can be claimed as a tax incentive is scheduled to decline.26 What impact this decline will have on market adoption remains unclear.As a supportive measure,Italys National Recovery and Resilience Plan plans to channel 2.2 billion for the self-consumption of renewable electricity,including storage systems.27 NRRP Investments in self-consumption28Millions Super bonus scheme 20222025262022202320242025end 2022202320242025110%90%70%65%2026010080090040017Several factors point to continued growth in utility-scale projects In a significant policy change,starting in 2022 Italy has abandoned the practice of double charging,a practice whereby operators are charged fees both for the energy they draw from the grid,and for the energy exported to the grid.29 As a further sign of support to the storage sector,Italys National Recovery and Resilience Plan also plans to launch a special incentive program for offshore plants using storage technologies.The program envisions offering up to 675 million to support such innovative projects,with wave power being mentioned as one of the targeted technologies.30 NRRP Investments on innovative storage applications(Millions)31 NRRP=National Recovery and Resilience Plan2022202320242025202605020020022518However,potential challenges for utility-scale projects remain While the economics of utility-scale storage projects in Italy are currently strong,the sector faces a few headwinds.The recent debate in Europe about the electricity market reform considers replacing hourly day-ahead markets with CfD schemes.32 If European legislation moves towards long-term CfD contracts,the wholesale market will likely become less attractive for storage projects,as such arrangements undermine the incentives to invest in power system flexibility.A further headwind for storage technologies is that Italy is in the process of expanding its grid interconnections with neighbouring countries such as Tunisia,Slovenia,France,and Austria.33 Such interconnections could reduce both prices and price volatility in the years ahead.CfD=Contracts for Differences19Energy storage poised to play a critical role in Italys energy transition As the share of wind and solar in Italys power system grows to reach Italys 55%renewable electricity target by 2030,significant investments power system flexibility will be needed.34 Storage is poised to play an important role in providing the required flexibility.In addition,Italys NECP sets out specific targets for battery storage in the coming years,providing further certainty to the sector.1 Couture et al.(2023).Scaling-up Energy Storage:Technology and Policy,E3 Analytics:https:/www.e3analytics.eu/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Scaling-Up-Energy-Storage_E3-Analytics_Global-Edition_Jan-2023.pdf 2 ANIE Federazione(2022).Storage System Observatory,December 2022 Report.https:/anie.it/osservatorio-sistemi-di-accumulo/?contesto-articolo=/sala-stampa/comunicati-stampa/#.ZCXoa3bP3b13 Emiliano Bellini(March 10 2023).PV Magazine,https:/www.pv- Terna(2023).https:/www.terna.it/en/electric-system/transparency-report/installed-capacity5 Ministero della transizione ecologica(2022).https:/dgsaie.mise.gov.it/pub/sen/relazioni/relazione_annuale_situazione_energetica_nazionale_dati_2021.pdf 6 International Trade Administration(2022).Italy:Country Commercial Guide,https:/www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/italy-natural-gas-renewable-energy7 See endnote 2 ANIE Federazione(2022).8 Incentivi Fotovoltaico(2022).Superbonus 110%News,https:/www.incentivifotovoltaico.name/superbonus-110-fotovoltaico.php9 See endnote 2 ANIE Federazione(2022).10 European Commission(2023).Quarterly Report on European Electricity Markets.Vol.15.https:/energy.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2023-01/Quarterly%20Report%20on%20European%20Electricity%20markets%20Q3%202022.pdf 11 Eurostat 2023.https:/ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Electricity_price_statistics#Electricity_prices_for_household_consumers12 Energy Guide(February 15 2023).Average Cost of Electricity per kWh,https:/energyguide.org.uk/average-cost-electricity-kwh-uk/13 FfE(January 20 2023).European day-ahead electricity prices in 2022,https:/www.ffe.de/en/publications/european-day-ahead-electricity-prices-in-2022/14 See endnote 10 European Commission(2023).15 Terna(2023).Capacity Market,https:/www.terna.it/en/electric-system/capacity-market 16 Terna(2020).Fast Reserve:Information Pack,https:/download.terna.it/terna/Fast%20Reserve%20-%20Information%20pack_8d82fe02cbed7ad.pdf 17 GME(2023).Spot Electricity Market,Gestore Mercati Energetici,https:/www.mercatoelettrico.org/en/mercati/mercatoelettrico/mpe.aspx 18 Terna(2022).Capacity Market Auction Results for 2024,https:/download.terna.it/terna/Mercato_Capacit%C3%A0_Rendiconto_esiti_Asta_madre_2024_8da140f8874afcd.pdf.See also endnote 3 Emiliano Bellini(March 10 2023).19 Terna(2021).Capacity Market Auction Results for 2022 and 2023,https:/download.terna.it/terna/2021_03_26_Capacit%C3%A0%20Nuova%202022%202023_V1_8d8f2ec81e10b99.pdf20 Terna(2020).Fast Reserve Auction Results,https:/download.terna.it/terna/AstaFastReserve_Avviso_sito_Terna_8d89d30516dc526.pdf21 Energy Storage News(2020).Batteries Awarded Five-year Grid Service Contracts in Italy Through Low-price Auction,https:/www.energy-storage.news/batteries-awarded-five-year-grid-services-contracts-in-italy-through-low-price-auction/22 See endnote 20 Terna(2020).23 See endnote 17 GME(2023).24 European Commission(2019).Italian Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan,https:/energy.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2020-02/it_final_necp_main_en_0.pdf 25 See endnote 2 ANIE Federazione(2022).26 See endnote 8 Incentivi Fotovoltaico(2022).27 Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance(2021).Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan,https:/www.mef.gov.it/en/focus/documents/PNRR-NEXT-GENERATION-ITALIA_ENG_09022021.pdf28 Open PNRR(2021).Investment Tracker of Measure 1.3,Promoting Renewable Energy in Energy Communities and Self-consumption.Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan,https:/openpnrr.it/misure/86/29 European Association for Storage of Energy(July 2022).The way forward for energy storage grid fees,https:/ease-storage.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/2022.07.07_The-Way-Forward-for-Energy-Storage-Grid-Fees_EASE.pdf30 Open PNRR(2021).Investment Tracker of Measure 1.3,Promoting Innovative Energy Plants.Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan,https:/openpnrr.it/misure/87/31 See endnote 27 Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance(2021).32 Spanish Government(2023).Proposal to Reform the EUs Wholesale Power Market.https:/table.media/europe/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2023/01/230110_Strommarktreform_Non-Paper_ES.pdf33 European Commission(December 8 2022).Connecting Europe Facility.https:/energy.