水,大气和生态系统可持续性管理研究计划报告.doc

水、大气和生态系统可持续性管理研究计划报告

中根英昭 (Hideaki NAKANE)
日本国立环境研究所 亚洲自然共生研究项目 主任

一个带有清洁水和大气的好的生态系统对可持续发展是不可或缺的。日本国立环境研究所（NIES）启动了一项研究计划，对亚洲大气环境、大面积跨界空气污染、陆地、沿海和海洋地区水环境可持续管理、大江大河流域生态系统保护等进行研究。该项研究将通过国际合作推动亚洲环境的可持续管理和构筑人与自然和谐社会提出政策上的建议提供科学依据。该计划有三个项目组成。下面对每个核心项目进行了概要说明。
核心项目1：拟订亚洲大气环境评价方法
通过国际共同研究和环境管理工具收集的东亚大气环境科学知识系统将被建立起来。结合观测和模拟，拟订出大气环境评价方法。本项目有以下目标：
·建立现地观测点，多要素和连续观测大气成分和气溶胶，扩展亚洲沙尘激光雷达和现地观测网，包括蒙古和东南亚地区。
·通过飞行器对东亚和日本进行密集观测。
·通过本项目和联合研究建立数据库。
·通过多尺度数字模拟和观测数据库建立一种方法来理解广域大气污染分布情况。
·结合从下至上和从上至下的方法，利用数学模型来分析观测数据，以改善大气污染排放清单。
·开发化学气候模型预测到2030年亚洲大气环境状况。
核心项目2：开发东亚地区水和物质循环评价系统
通过国际合作积累东亚特别是长江和黄河流域水环境研究的科学知识和信息，用于开发水环境可持续管理的必要工具。结合先进的观测技术和科学模型开发出一个区域水和物质循环评价系统。本项目有以下目标：
·改善应用遥感技术对广域水和物质循环进行评价的精度，开发新的观测方法并用这些方法创建综合观测系统。
·创建一个东亚环境信息数据库，包括基于卫星、GIS和观测数据的水、热和物质循环的有关信息。
·通过对广域气候、地表形态和陆地覆盖等复杂影响过程的相关关系的深入探讨，开发一个水和物质循环评价模型。
·评价和预测土地利用变化和气候变化对水循环（如缺水和洪水）和物质循环（如碳、氮等）的影响。
·加强环境可持续管理技术评估系统，并拟订社会环境指标来评价城市和流域环境可持续发展。该系统将为地方和区域的利益集团的适当技术方案和政策制定提供战略设计和评价。
核心项目3：开发流域环境影响评价方法
开发东南亚和日本的流域生态系统环境影响评价方法。为此形成一个国际研究网络体系，主要涉及湄公河流域。通过国际共同研究收集科学数据来支持流域可持续性的研究。在澄清湄公河淡水鱼类的现状和了解流域环境动态学过程后，对大坝和其他设施对生态系统的影响进行了评价。本项目的研究目标如下：
·制作研究对象地区的高分辨率陆地覆盖分类图等地图来评价湿地的功能并使用这些地图 了解流域生态系统的自然退化过程。
·收集主要生物体的多样性、生态信息以及气候和水质数据来制作流域生态系统环境数据 库。
·收集环境影响评价必需的水环境数据并运用这些数据进行模拟。开发地形生态学方法来 评价生物的适应生境以及评价流域生态系统管理中能够利用的河口生态系统影响的方法。

Report on a research program for the management of water, atmosphere and ecosystem for sustainable development

Hideaki NAKANE

Director, Asian Environmental Research Group
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
(Email: [e-mail])

A sound ecosystem with clean water and atmosphere is indispensable for sustainable development. NIES (National Institute for Environmental Studies) started a research program on Asia’s atmospheric environment, wide area trans-boundary air pollution, sustainable management of the water environment in continental, coastal and oceanic areas and the preservation of ecosystems in watershed areas such as large rivers. This research forms the scientific infrastructure for contributing to policy recommendations for promoting Asian environmental management and building societies in harmony with nature through international cooperation. The program comprises three projects. A brief summary of each core project is given below.
Core Project 1：Development of the methods for evaluating the atmospheric environment in Asia
Scientific knowledge on the East Asian atmospheric environment that can be collected through international joint research and environmental management tools will be established. By combining observation and modelling, methods to evaluate the atmospheric environment are developed. The objectives of the project are as follows:
•Establishing in situ observation sites for the multi-constituent/continuous observation of atmospheric gases and aerosols and expanding the lidar and in situ observation network of the Asian dust to include Mongolia and the southeast Asian regions.
•Performing intensive observations in China and Japan by aircraft.
•Establishing a database from this project and joint research.
•Establishing a method for understanding the big picture of wide area atmospheric pollution through multi-scale numerical modelling and observation databases.
•Combining bottom-up and top-down methods for analyzing observational data by using numerical models to improve the emission inventories for atmospheric pollutants.
•Developing chemical climate models to forecast the state of the Asian atmospheric environment up to 2030.
Core Project 2: Development of systems for evaluating the regional water and material cycles in East Asia
The tools necessary for sustainable water environment management are developed by gathering scientific knowledge and information through strategic international collaborative researches on East Asian water environments, specifically focusing on the Chiangjiang and Yellow river basins. A system for evaluating the regional water and material cycles is developed by integrating the observation and scientific models. The objectives of this project are as follows:
•Improving the remote sensing technology to assess wide area water and material cycles, developing new observation methods and using these methods to create integrated observation systems.
•Creating an East Asian environmental information database that includes information on water, heat and material cycles based on satellites, the GIS and observational data.
•Investigating the correlations among complex impact processes such as wide area climate, land forms and terrestrial cover to develop an assessment model for water and material cycles.
•Evaluating and predicting the effects of changes in the land and climate on water cycles (such as water shortages and floods) and material cycles (such as carbon, nitrogen, etc.).
•Consolidating a technology inventory system for sustainable environmental management and developing socio-environmental indicators for assessing sustainable urban and watershed environments. This system provides a strategic design and the evaluation of appropriate technological alternatives and countermeasure policy programs for local and regional stakeholders.
Core Project 3: Development of the methods for evaluating watershed environmental impacts
Methods are developed for the environmental impact assessment of Asian watershed ecosystems in Southeastt Asia and Japan. A network of international programs involved with the Mekong River watershed area is formed. Scientific knowledge is collected to support the sustainable development of watersheds through international joint research. Clarifying the current state of freshwater fish species in the Mekong River and understanding the environmental dynamics of watersheds, the impacts of dams and other facilities on the ecosystem are evaluated. The objectives of the project are as follows:
•Making high resolution land cover classification maps of certain areas and maps to assess the wetland function and using them to understand the natural deterioration in watershed ecosystems.
•Collecting data on the diversity of major organisms, ecological information and climate and water quality to make an environmental database of watershed ecosystems.
•Collecting water environment data essential for environmental impact assessment and using it for modelling. Developing landscape ecology methods to evaluate suitable habitats and methods to evaluate the impacts on estuary ecosystems that can be used in watershed ecosystem management.