工业软件行业研究：美国经验与中国借鉴.docx

工业软件行业研究：美国经验与中国借鉴报告摘要：
1、ERP 巨头 SAP云业务逆势上涨，重要性不断提升，高毛利率典范。
Q3总收入、利润呈下降态势，云业务保持双位数增长
(11%) O虽然收入利润表现不佳，但其他财务指标依 然相当有竞争力。云积压订单增长16%,达到66亿欧元。 符合大厂身份的强劲现金流：运营现金流增长54%,达 到50.9亿欧元；自由现金流增长79% ,至41.7亿欧元。 云业务和软件业务占据较大收入份额：85%o云业务一 览：云应用程序订阅者数量达到了 2.3亿。亚太国家中， 中国不是公司云收入的强力贡献地区，可见公司云 业务受金蝶、用友等云计算领军企业竞争压力较 大。高毛利率典范：公司云与软件业务毛利率高达80% 左右，且呈现上升趋势。(预计未来用友、金蝶等云计 算龙头公司未来毛利率也会上升)。客户数量实现连续 增长，2020年Q3已经超过15,100客户。
虽然收入利润衰现不佳,但粹他财务指标依然相当有竞争力.
•云积压订单增长16%,达到66亿欧元
•符合大厂身份的强劲现金流：运营现金渊1长54% ,达到50.9CK元；自由现金酒长79% ,至41.7亿欧元THIRD QUARTER 2020 ・ OTHER FINANCIAL AND NONTINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTSSTRONG DOUBLE-DIGIT GROWTH IN EPS AND CASH FLOW
Currentlcloud backlog up 16% at constant currencies to €6.6 billionl
Non-IFRS cloud gross margin up 0.7pp to 69.7%
IFRS Operating margin down 2.2pp to 22.5% | Non-IFRS up 1.3pp to 31.9% at constant currencies
IFRS Earnings per share up 26% to €1.32 | Non-IFRS up 31% to €1.70
Dperatmg cash flow up 54% to €5.09bn rree cash flow up 79% to €4.17bn
Year-to-date
Year-to-date
More than 15,100 S/4HANA customers
Greenhouse gas emissions at 25kt
Overall employee retention rate remains high at 94.8%
Women in management at 27.3%
百家■芽来智库
百料缮来智库
资晚构:公田财报.天风旺步研朋云业务和软件业务占据较大收入份额：85%资叫阿：公啪报.天风任务研究所
INCOME STATEMENT
THIRD QUARTER

IFRS

Non-IFRS

C Wkm.oiherww

Q3/20
Q3/lg
A%
Q3/20
Q3/19
A%
a % at cc
Cloud

L9ft4

F
1.984
L807

14
Sottwxe

714
932
■23
714
932

~19
Sottwovv MlppCft

2.845
2.907
,2
2.845
2.907

ZE
ScftW'ifcwpor]

3.559
3.8的
■7
X559

4
| Ckxid ekI w ・w

ZD
’ ’・・上
・？
5.544

?
Service|

992
g

992
iiw

Total revenue

6.535
6.791
•4
6.535
6.809
9

1 otfll operjung citpmses

•5.063
5.111
1
4.4«6
E4
5
2
Operating profit (lots)

1.473
L679
-12
2.069
2.086
•1
4
Fmnojl ocome ne：]

616
42
»】oo|
616
妃
＞】00

Profit (Iom) b*for« tax

i070
1.702
22
2.666
2108
26

:ncomtSypent*

-41S
Y43

5M
—

4

Profit (lost) after tex

L652
L2S9
31
2.098
L564
34

Operating mdrg*n (m %)
:
225
247

31.7
306
♦ 10pp
•l w
Eyfwngs per share have《sC)
132
： 4
?6|
170

云业务一88 :云应用程序订阅番数剧达到了2.3亿KEY CLOUD METRICSTHIRD QUARTER资“来源:公司财报，天风证券研滴百翠净来智库高毛利率典葱：公司云与软件业务毛利率禺达80%左右.且呈现上升趋势.（预计未来用友、金■等云计H龙头 公司未来毛利率也会上升）GROSS MARGIN DEVELOPMENTCLOUD GROSS MARGIN CONTINUING POSITIVE TREND
Cloud Revenue
Current Cloud Backlog1
Global Commerce2
Cloud Applications Total Subscrib«rs
+14%
€1.984m
+16%
€6.60bn
>$4.1 trillion
~230m

Concur - Sogmont Rovonu。
Qualtrics - Segment Revenue
Number of end users book travel and/or process expense with SAP Concur
New workers started on SAP Fieldglass platform
-10%
€357m
+28%
€169m
~70rn
>975,000
Cloud & Software
815
W.4
816
79.6
Services
22.9
250
315
Total Gross Margin
71.8
nz
72.3
7X7
87487 4Software Licenses & Support87.8ezi由 81
McrHTRS. m peecenc e reported
FY/18
Ql/19
Q2/19
Q3/19
Q4/19
FY/19
Q1/20
Q2/2O
Q3/20
Cloud

Y

• ■

631
•——
..sz .

682

_ ■
海
如
Intelligent Spend
77.8

- 一 ・ 一
.
曲

78 1

a
用3
Private Cloud (laaS)

12.2

291
■
31。
M.0
3M
Pubhc Cloud (SaaS/PaaS)
600

■
684
■—
08-

70Z
W.5
冗4

客户数HI实现连续增长，2020年Q3已经蛰过15,100$户.
资舛来擢:公SWfi,天风证物满
2MES巨头西门子百家号/未来智座
百家号/未来智座
百家号/未来智座

百家号/未来智座
平稳度过疫情，工业软件占据高毛利率宝位，中国业务逆势上扬
务必阅读正女之■的值息披nt和免良申朗西门子已经公布2020财年Q1-Q4的财务情况.从2020年全年来看，公司壬您度过疫沽,收入下降2%.
FY 2020 revised guidance achieved Siemens weathered COVID-19 crisis wellAdj. EBITA margin Industrial Business
Adj. EBITA margin Industrial Business
Adj. EBITA margin Industrial Business
Adj. EBITA margin Industrial Business
Adj. EBITA margin Industrial Business

Adj. EBITA margin Industrial Business
Basic Earnings per Share
•10bps
14.4%14.3%
FY2019 FY2O2O
Ioi omnty Irmum

Orders
€bn
403.9
■■
CM FY 19Q4FY20
Adj. EBITA Margin
04 FY 19 Q4FY2004 FY 19 Q4FY20
M HtllArw^roBlAB 3
壅胸赫:公司财报.天风证券研究所百帝*•击来智庠Q4*M ,公司工兆软件业务公萄工!1皿件业务由2019年的43亿欧元下降至2020年 的39亿欧元，同比下降6%.
Digital Industries (DI)
Excellent execution on strong growth in China
Orders.
China and large Mentor wins drive growth
Revenue;Automation decline bottoming out Software modestly down on tough compsMarain：
Benefit from structural cost action and contingency measures €533m Bentley effect
Free cash flow:
Excellent cash conversion
Effective working capital measuresSIEMENS资所来源：公司财报.天风证券研炳西门子工^软件业务在中始上扬.at速这14%°而其他地区都呈现下降态势.(目u中■工业软件行业事 景气，行业内公司有里获得较大发st)Digital Industries (DI)Q4 with first signs of stabilization in short-cycle Automation businessDl revenue share in vertical end markets
Q4 with first signs of stabilization in short-cycle Automation businessDl revenue share in vertical end markets
Q4 with first signs of stabilization in short-cycle Automation businessDl revenue share in vertical end markets

Q4 with first signs of stabilization in short-cycle Automation businessDl revenue share in vertical end markets
Dl revenue share in vertical end markets
Dl revenue share in vertical end markets
Dl revenue share in vertical end markets
Dl revenue share in vertical end markets

Dl revenue share in vertical end markets
Automotive
0

Machine Tools
0
令
Pharma & Chemicals

Food & Beverage
a

Electronics & Semiconductors
a
c
Aerospace & Defense
o
0

Trend new 34
A* of 03^0 Mot 04.70
• Hj <HfY PO>•濯
Q4 FY 2020 - Key recons Automation («xcl. Software)
■
Order*| Rev«nu« *14%
Continued growth suppofting toclinc

Orders ・17% | Revenue -22%
Tough cotnps impacbno growth ralM after severe Mio 03
Orders -17% | Revenue -12%
Continued strong decline In Process and DtecmS
Rownuo -2%
FY 2021 e cfeui g^ePY
Orders -5% | Revenue -5%
Recovery on low A、® aHar substantial hit m 03
Q4 FY 2020 - Software
SIEMENS

1.101
FY2019
Free cash flow - Industrial Businesses
2.108
CCR 086
Q1FT20 Q2FY2O Q3FY20 04 — 20 FY2020

:公司财报,天风证野研炳百料津来智库■■影显公司弼大上下游收价能力.2020年公司匡然收入略德下降,但是现金流仍然保持强劲态丸
04 一 Strong finish in free cash flow performance Consistent progress in operating working capital initiatives
Q4: €0.5bn free cash flow from reduction of operating working capital
FY 2020: Cash conversion rate of 1.07 excl. Bentley effect and SI divestment gain exceeding 1-growth target
Q4: Strong performance of Portfolio Companies
FY 2020: Cash focus gains traction
资I43fc» :公国财报・天风证资研究所
公司晨通2021:对4岫・心,利润有SB进f 提升，工业软件业务仍占提毛利E- (17%-18% )宝也
Outlook FY 2021FY 2021 Siemens Group
FY 2021 Siemens Group
FY 2021 Siemens Group
FY 2021 Siemens Group
FY 2021 Siemens Group

FY 2021 Siemens Group
• Book>to<bill >1
• Moderate comparable revenue growth
• Moderate increase of net income
Comparable Adj. EBITA margin revenue growth expectation
Digital Industries Modest17 -18%
FY2020FY2021
N«t Incom* N«t Income
Smart Infrastructure Moderate
Mobility
10-11%
Mid-single digit 9.5-10.5%
ExdudM from »h«s ouoook are Ourtens from legdi and regulatory tssucs and effects in connecbon with Siemens Hca thneers planned acqut&fon of Vanan Medical Systems Inc . wtMdi ts expected to dose m the first haM of calendar 2021
斐胸来源:公司财报,天风证野研瑚?
百帮够来智库
•我16合作：与SAP合作.耽说明共11工业软件生态,是未来工业软件企业发展必 不可少的F・
•堆续保持房研发投入(达到收入8%＞占比)
Leverage R&D investments and partner ecosystems to drive growth
Continued high l«v«l of R&D invo»tm«nt...
... combined with strong ecosystem deliver results

h ♦…，¥
U3BdTMMi
. Partnership SAP - Siemens
Inlegialed end-to-end softwwe sohnions across product iifecyde. supply chain and |nu»rw9«nc«»t

Energy as a Service
Macquane and Siemen&'SFS pint venture for onsite distributed energy solutions
资归来事；公司财报天风还绑椀疥
Digital process twin
VWtuai plant foe vaccine productiofi
Faster development lime (-25%) Improved resource offic»ency (-10%)
Mentor - a success story
-40% of Dl sottwate business revenue E*ciron»c Design AutoouMion • core tor IC and etecirlcal systems design
SIEMENS
百隽我赢来智库
FY 2021 Framework Businesses3建筑设计软件巨头欧特克
BIM领军，新产品Fusion 360集各类工业软件之大成，商业模百家号/未来智库
百家号/未来智库
百家号/未来智库
百家号/未来智库
百家号/未来智库

百家号/未来智库
式极具破坏性
urn必阅读正文之店的信息披*心申朗
收入实戏乃位故挤长公司Q3单季度实现14.6%的增长，忌收入达到9.52亿美元.
Third Quarter Fiscal 21 Results$1B +
Billings
$1B +
Billings
$1B +
Billings
$1B +
Billings
$1B +
Billings

$1B +
Billings
$952M
$340M
Total Revenue
Free Cash Flow

30%
Non-GAAP Operating Margin
B1M占批#体收入的44% ; AutoCAD (2D CAD)占29% ;工IE软件(3D CAD、CAE、CAM、PLM)占20%
B1M占批#体收入的44% ; AutoCAD (2D CAD)占29% ;工IE软件(3D CAD、CAE、CAM、PLM)占20%
B1M占批#体收入的44% ; AutoCAD (2D CAD)占29% ;工IE软件(3D CAD、CAE、CAM、PLM)占20%
B1M占批#体收入的44% ; AutoCAD (2D CAD)占29% ;工IE软件(3D CAD、CAE、CAM、PLM)占20%
B1M占批#体收入的44% ; AutoCAD (2D CAD)占29% ;工IE软件(3D CAD、CAE、CAM、PLM)占20%

B1M占批#体收入的44% ; AutoCAD (2D CAD)占29% ;工IE软件(3D CAD、CAE、CAM、PLM)占20%
媒体娱乐软
变眉来源:公司财报.天风证券研究所
从销色折来香，建筑设计类软件（BIM ）销售占比达60%.
Autodesk Makes Software for People Who Make Things
Manufacturing
Media $ Entertainment
$ Other
*30% of Sales
-60% of Sales
:公司财报•天风证券研炳
-10% of Sales
Architecture, Engineering $ Construction (AEC)公司通过产WEI代置务.享5州»»的f ■怅.IB1睫产品的客户无法享受新产品的功能
公司通过产WEI代置务.享5州»»的f ■怅.IB1睫产品的客户无法享受新产品的功能
公司通过产WEI代置务.享5州»»的f ■怅.IB1睫产品的客户无法享受新产品的功能
公司通过产WEI代置务.享5州»»的f ■怅.IB1睫产品的客户无法享受新产品的功能
公司通过产WEI代置务.享5州»»的f ■怅.IB1睫产品的客户无法享受新产品的功能

公司通过产WEI代置务.享5州»»的f ■怅.IB1睫产品的客户无法享受新产品的功能
资屑来源:公田财报,天风证券研炳
百福缮来智库■产品Fusion 360横空出世.集告类工件之大成,商业gMS性.|(||有心的3D CAD , CAM , CAE和PCB软件能力，且只呆顶495暨元的年订间券和1500M元的拓展费用.
• HH1•平台型、全产品线是未来工业软件公司的发展签势.
Fusion 360 Business Model is Disruptive30pnrc«X*
30pnrc«X*
30pnrc«X*
30pnrc«X*
30pnrc«X*

30pnrc«X*
3OSYSTCMS
Altair AN $ creo
Altair AN $ creo
Altair AN $ creo
Altair AN $ creo
Altair AN $ creo

Altair AN $ creo
AUTODESK* FUSION 360'
$5,000- $50,000
$5,000- $50,000
$5,000- $50,000
$5,000- $50,000
$5,000- $50,000

$5,000- $50,000
VS
$495
Subscription
PER YEAR
$1,500
Extension
—frustum Mastercam nlbpoloqy SIEMENS NX »oiidThinking 湾 CHTIH
—frustum Mastercam nlbpoloqy SIEMENS NX »oiidThinking 湾 CHTIH
—frustum Mastercam nlbpoloqy SIEMENS NX »oiidThinking 湾 CHTIH
—frustum Mastercam nlbpoloqy SIEMENS NX »oiidThinking 湾 CHTIH
—frustum Mastercam nlbpoloqy SIEMENS NX »oiidThinking 湾 CHTIH

—frustum Mastercam nlbpoloqy SIEMENS NX »oiidThinking 湾 CHTIH
OUTCOME-BASED PRICING FOR
GENERATIVE DESIGN

:公司财报・天风证券研炳
$13B
Make TAM
■ Afchttwtucc• Building Engineering
■ CMI/Sha Fnqtr»oe«ing■ |i»diiM(>dlAW>VOih«i
壅料来源:公司瑚,天风证券研炳
百料芽来智库
未来，工业领域软件（CAD\CAE\CAM\PLM ）将达到330亿美元市场规模
Manufacturing Opportunity
$19B
Design TAM
$14B
Make TAM
■ Drafters■ Mcctwnlcdl Engineers
■ Electrkal Eng»ne<ff$■ Other
. ：OC4• I^OdMCtlOn < PUct Op<r«tQrv
行业■■气.广师场空间为公司未来nmn书.公w,未来，am设计m件（bim）将达到31血类 元市场规模（可以离到中国市场很大）
AEC Opportunity$18BDesion TAM

壅B来源：公司财报,天风证券研究所

2、综合类工业软件巨头西门子
平稳度过疫情，工业软件占据高毛利率宝位，中国 业务逆势上扬。西门子己经公布202()财年Q1-Q4的财 务情况。从2020年全年来看，公司平稳度过疫情，收入 下降2%o Q4单季度，公司工业软件业务受疫情影响有 所下降。公司工业软件业务由2019年的43亿欧元下降 至2020年 的39亿欧元，同比下降6%。西门子工业软 件业务在中国逆势上扬，增速达14%。而其他地 区都呈现下降态势。(目前中国工业软件行业高景气, 行业内公司有望获得较大发展。)强现金流表现彰显公 司强大上下游议价能力。2020年公司虽然收入略微下降, 但是现金流仍然保持强劲态势。公司展望2021：对增长未来，岫ft乐软件将达到5(M3美元市场1Medio 8 Entertainment Opportunity$5B
DESIGN TAM
$5B
DESIGN TAM
$5B
DESIGN TAM
$5B
DESIGN TAM

$5B
DESIGN TAM

・ Adv Publ & Graphic Dvi ・ F»Jm & TV ・ Gag
资昼来源:公司咖，天风证券研演百帮绪来智感4
百家号/未来智库
软件业务双位数增长，产品云化成为趋势，与京东建立PLM合作
黄务必阕读正文之店的值息披■和免IB申明达素,软件业务保持双位触长(17%),占总收入91%.其中，软件订阅收入同比 it任28% ,占软件收入82%.工^软件云化后抗风险能力«WiiE.
Q3 & YTD 2020 Performance at a GlanceNon- IFRS
Non- IFRS
Non- IFRS
Non- IFRS
Non- IFRS

Non- IFRS
(M
3Q2O
YTOM
R«v«nu«
1.030
3.245
Growtn
• 13%
♦14%
Growth exFX*
1 M?%
♦15%
OpeMing Margin
28 2%
28.1%
EPS(€)
0.80
255
EPSEvo*ubon
•3%
•4%

•冲WFHUBJO3 "a\YTD
UoenMt CM* Software Rtvwu*
nn a f rr>» WH r • f QlotROm / 1^K to f • kFpro^wt E8. wtratr*3C«u«，rwunpdotm ti 2CW
O>nc ,“\svia)E・08xm
gate .仆
S^rrici R, w
(.逻Q、z上/
IB W
K3I*OH ，■“
9K^hQ2«» UTAStQC 5MM1' 0RMftrgp4vldt«r<aiclitfvRW9in«vcl
Oom 5%5r)3*m.5m

-/<• oossm/tr
swsrr Mt-%
Total software revenue
+22%+17%

资I43RJI:公司财报,天风证券研究所百御净来智摩生*^类软件1*・崛长.公司生命科学类软件Q琐胜达到498% ,该项收入达到19年Q3的近6倍. 经典工业软件CATIA和ENOVIA收入变化不大，SOUDOWRKS Q3增速为10%.
Software Revenue by Product Line nonfrs
% Growth «xFX
3Q20
YTD20 I

Industrial Innovation software revenue
-2%
•4% -
―• Double-digit ENOVIA license revenue
of whch CATIA
•1%

growth in Q3
of wh ch ENO VIA
♦4%
•7%

Life Sciences software revenue+498%*462% —• MEDIDATA total revenue up 13% in Q3
Backlog to benefit for 2021
Mainstream Innovation software revenue*9%+2%
Of which SOLIOWORKS・1 吹・3%―. SOLIDWORKS: strong recurring revenue and netimprovement of licenses performance from Q2

变科来源:公司羽报・天风证券研涵
工业软件收入占比很高.警体占比达列72%.经典工业软件占比达到50% ,主流的创新工业软件占比达到22% , 生命科学类工业软件占比为18%.
Revenue by Product Line
IFRS30203019■ YTD 20YTD 19
30203019■ YTD 20YTD 19
30203019■ YTD 20YTD 19
30203019■ YTD 20YTD 19
30203019■ YTD 20YTD 19

30203019■ YTD 20YTD 19
壅料来源:公司财报，天风证券研涵
百家■洋来智廖
达素与AM电巨头京东在PLMI■■开合作.京东将使用达索的Centric PLM产品，该计划从京东的自有品 牌部门之一J.ZAOJf始
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:公司财报・天风证券研朋
注:史关上云米伐 由四大产品线构成3D Expenene平台已经可以通过云平台在it筑，飞机.汽车等领域进 行数字化设计（性计中■工me软件公司.如中,来来上云只 sgnm）
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Powering Visionary Brands with 3DEXPERIENCEonthe CloudToyo Tires
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斐料来源：公司财报.天风证券研瑚i
风险提亦(1)疫情影响下游制造业客户侦0受限.询软件主要面对制造业企业,中小企业占多数，资金预算有 限，需要投入生产设备或生产材料.疫情影响下，公司削减或础工业1T预算.
• (2)竞争激烈.全球看,传统制造业龙头凭借丰富行业经幼.纷纷进军工业软彳牛市场，同时企业信息化厂 家凭借ERP等信息系统,进入工业软件市场.
百家号/未来智廊
• (3)研发进展不及预期