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工业软件行业研究：美国经验与中国借鉴.docx

1、工业软件行业研究：美国经验与中国借鉴报告摘要： 1、ERP 巨头 SAP云业务逆势上涨，重要性不断提升，高毛利率典范。 Q3总收入、利润呈下降态势，云业务保持双位数增长 (11%) O虽然收入利润表现不佳，但其他财务指标依然相当有竞争力。云积压订单增长16%,达到66亿欧元。符合大厂身份的强劲现金流：运营现金流增长54%,达到50.9亿欧元；自由现金流增长79% ,至41.7亿欧元。云业务和软件业务占据较大收入份额：85%o云业务一览：云应用程序订阅者数量达到了 2.3亿。亚太国家中，中国不是公司云收入的强力贡献地区，可见公司云业务受金蝶、用友等云计算领军企业竞争压力较大

2、高毛利率典范：公司云与软件业务毛利率高达80% 左右，且呈现上升趋势。(预计未来用友、金蝶等云计算龙头公司未来毛利率也会上升)。客户数量实现连续增长，2020年Q3已经超过15,100客户。虽然收入利润衰现不佳,但粹他财务指标依然相当有竞争力. •云积压订单增长16%,达到66亿欧元 •符合大厂身份的强劲现金流：运营现金渊1长54% ,达到50.9CK元；自由现金酒长79% ,至41.7亿欧元THIRD QUARTER 2020 ・ OTHER FINANCIAL AND NONTINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTSSTRONG DOUBLE-DIGIT GROWTH IN E

3、PS AND CASH FLOW Currentlcloud backlog up 16% at constant currencies to €6.6 billionl Non-IFRS cloud gross margin up 0.7pp to 69.7% IFRS Operating margin down 2.2pp to 22.5% | Non-IFRS up 1.3pp to 31.9% at constant currencies IFRS Earnings per share up 26% to €1.32 | Non-IFRS up 31% to €1.70 Dp

4、eratmg cash flow up 54% to €5.09bn rree cash flow up 79% to €4.17bn Year-to-date Year-to-date More than 15,100 S/4HANA customers Greenhouse gas emissions at 25kt Overall employee retention rate remains high at 94.8% Women in management at 27.3% 百家■芽来智库百料缮来智库资晚构:公田财报.天风旺步研朋云业务和软件业务占据较大收入份额

5、85%资叫阿：公啪报.天风任务研究所 INCOME STATEMENT THIRD QUARTER IFRS Non-IFRS C Wkm.oiherww Q3/20 Q3/lg A% Q3/20 Q3/19 A% a % at cc Cloud L9ft4 F 1.984 L807 14 Sottwxe 714 932 ■23 714 932 ~19 Sottwovv MlppCft 2.845 2.907 ,2 2.845 2.907 ZE ScftW'ifcwp

6、or] 3.559 3.8的 ■7 X559 4 | Ckxid ekI w ・w ZD ’ ’・・上・？ 5.544 ? Service| 992 g 992 iiw Total revenue 6.535 6.791 •4 6.535 6.809 9 1 otfll operjung citpmses •5.063 5.111 1 4.4«6 E4 5 2 Operating profit (lots) 1.473 L679 -12 2.069 2.086

7、•1 4 Fmnojl ocome ne：] 616 42 »】oo| 616 妃＞】00 Profit (Iom) b*for« tax i070 1.702 22 2.666 2108 26 :ncomtSypent* -41S Y43 5M — 4 Profit (lost) after tex L652 L2S9 31 2.098 L564 34 Operating mdrg*n (m %) : 225 247 31.7 306 ♦ 10pp •l w Eyfwngs

8、 per share have《sC) 132 ： 4 ?6| 170 云业务一88 :云应用程序订阅番数剧达到了2.3亿KEY CLOUD METRICSTHIRD QUARTER资“来源:公司财报，天风证券研滴百翠净来智库高毛利率典葱：公司云与软件业务毛利率禺达80%左右.且呈现上升趋势.（预计未来用友、金■等云计H龙头公司未来毛利率也会上升）GROSS MARGIN DEVELOPMENTCLOUD GROSS MARGIN CONTINUING POSITIVE TREND Cloud Revenue Current Cloud Backlog1 Glob

9、al Commerce2 Cloud Applications Total Subscrib«rs +14% €1.984m +16% €6.60bn >$4.1 trillion ~230m Concur - Sogmont Rovonu。 Qualtrics - Segment Revenue Number of end users book travel and/or process expense with SAP Concur New workers started on SAP Fieldglass platform -10% €357m +28

10、 €169m ~70rn >975,000 Cloud & Software 815 W.4 816 79.6 Services 22.9 250 315 Total Gross Margin 71.8 nz 72.3 7X7 87487 4Software Licenses & Support87.8ezi由 81 McrHTRS. m peecenc e reported FY/18 Ql/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 Q4/19 FY/19 Q1/20 Q2/2O Q3/20 Cloud Y • ■

11、 631 •—— ..sz . 682 _ ■ 海如 Intelligent Spend 77.8 - 一・一 . 曲 78 1 a 用3 Private Cloud (laaS) 12.2 291 ■ 31。 M.0 3M Pubhc Cloud (SaaS/PaaS) 600 ■ 684 ■— 08- 70Z W.5 冗4 客户数HI实现连续增长，2020年Q3已经蛰过15,100$户.

12、资舛来擢:公SWfi,天风证物满 2MES巨头西门子百家号/未来智座百家号/未来智座百家号/未来智座百家号/未来智座平稳度过疫情，工业软件占据高毛利率宝位，中国业务逆势上扬务必阅读正女之■的值息披nt和免良申朗西门子已经公布2020财年Q1-Q4的财务情况.从2020年全年来看，公司壬您度过疫沽,收入下降2%. FY 2020 revised guidance achieved Siemens weathered COVID-19 crisis wellAdj. EBITA margin Industrial Business Adj. EBITA margin

13、Industrial Business Adj. EBITA margin Industrial Business Adj. EBITA margin Industrial Business Adj. EBITA margin Industrial Business Adj. EBITA margin Industrial Business Basic Earnings per Share •10bps 14.4%14.3% FY2019 FY2O2O Ioi omnty Irmum Orders €bn 403.9 ■■ CM FY 19Q4FY20

14、 Adj. EBITA Margin 04 FY 19 Q4FY2004 FY 19 Q4FY20 M HtllArw^roBlAB 3 壅胸赫:公司财报.天风证券研究所百帝*•击来智庠Q4*M ,公司工兆软件业务公萄工!1皿件业务由2019年的43亿欧元下降至2020年的39亿欧元，同比下降6%. Digital Industries (DI) Excellent execution on strong growth in China Orders. China and large Mentor wins drive growth Revenue;Automation de

15、cline bottoming out Software modestly down on tough compsMarain： Benefit from structural cost action and contingency measures €533m Bentley effect Free cash flow: Excellent cash conversion Effective working capital measuresSIEMENS资所来源：公司财报.天风证券研炳西门子工^软件业务在中始上扬.at速这14%°而其他地区都呈现下降态势.(目u中■工业软件行业事景

16、气，行业内公司有里获得较大发st)Digital Industries (DI)Q4 with first signs of stabilization in short-cycle Automation businessDl revenue share in vertical end markets Q4 with first signs of stabilization in short-cycle Automation businessDl revenue share in vertical end markets Q4 with first signs of stabilizati

17、on in short-cycle Automation businessDl revenue share in vertical end markets Q4 with first signs of stabilization in short-cycle Automation businessDl revenue share in vertical end markets Dl revenue share in vertical end markets Dl revenue share in vertical end markets Dl revenue share in ve

18、rtical end markets Dl revenue share in vertical end markets Dl revenue share in vertical end markets Automotive 0 Machine Tools 0 令 Pharma & Chemicals Food & Beverage a Electronics & Semiconductors a c Aerospace & Defense o 0 Trend new 34 A* of 03^0 Mot 04.70 • Hj

19、 PO>•濯 Q4 FY 2020 - Key recons Automation («xcl. Software) ■ Order*| Rev«nu« *14% Continued growth suppofting toclinc Orders ・17% | Revenue -22% Tough cotnps impacbno growth ralM after severe Mio 03 Orders -17% | Revenue -12% Continued strong decline In Process and DtecmS Rownuo -2% FY

20、 2021 e cfeui g^ePY Orders -5% | Revenue -5% Recovery on low A、® aHar substantial hit m 03 Q4 FY 2020 - Software SIEMENS 1.101 FY2019 Free cash flow - Industrial Businesses 2.108 CCR 086 Q1FT20 Q2FY2O Q3FY20 04 — 20 FY2020 :公司财报,天风证野研炳百料津来智库■■影显公司弼大上下游收价能力.2020年公司匡然收入略德下降,但是现金流仍然保持强

21、劲态丸 04 一 Strong finish in free cash flow performance Consistent progress in operating working capital initiatives Q4: €0.5bn free cash flow from reduction of operating working capital FY 2020: Cash conversion rate of 1.07 excl. Bentley effect and SI divestment gain exceeding 1-growth target Q4:

22、Strong performance of Portfolio Companies FY 2020: Cash focus gains traction 资I43fc» :公国财报・天风证资研究所公司晨通2021:对4岫・心,利润有SB进f 提升，工业软件业务仍占提毛利E- (17%-18% )宝也 Outlook FY 2021FY 2021 Siemens Group FY 2021 Siemens Group FY 2021 Siemens Group FY 2021 Siemens Group FY 2021 Siemens Group FY 2021 Siem

23、ens Group • Book>to1 • Moderate comparable revenue growth • Moderate increase of net income Comparable Adj. EBITA margin revenue growth expectation Digital Industries Modest17 -18% FY2020FY2021 N«t Incom* N«t Income Smart Infrastructure Moderate Mobility 10-11% Mid-single digit 9.5

24、10.5% ExdudM from »h«s ouoook are Ourtens from legdi and regulatory tssucs and effects in connecbon with Siemens Hca thneers planned acqut&fon of Vanan Medical Systems Inc . wtMdi ts expected to dose m the first haM of calendar 2021 斐胸来源:公司财报,天风证野研瑚? 百帮够来智库 •我16合作：与SAP合作.耽说明共11工业软件生态,是未来工业软件企业发

25、展必不可少的F・ •堆续保持房研发投入(达到收入8%＞占比) Leverage R&D investments and partner ecosystems to drive growth Continued high l«v«l of R&D invo»tm«nt... ... combined with strong ecosystem deliver results h ♦…，¥ U3BdTMMi . Partnership SAP - Siemens Inlegialed end-to-end softwwe sohnions across product iif

26、ecyde. supply chain and |nu»rw9«nc«»t Energy as a Service Macquane and Siemen&'SFS pint venture for onsite distributed energy solutions 资归来事；公司财报天风还绑椀疥 Digital process twin VWtuai plant foe vaccine productiofi Faster development lime (-25%) Improved resource offic»ency (-10%) Mentor - a suc

27、cess story -40% of Dl sottwate business revenue E*ciron»c Design AutoouMion • core tor IC and etecirlcal systems design SIEMENS 百隽我赢来智库 FY 2021 Framework Businesses3建筑设计软件巨头欧特克 BIM领军，新产品Fusion 360集各类工业软件之大成，商业模百家号/未来智库百家号/未来智库百家号/未来智库百家号/未来智库百家号/未来智库百家号/未来智库式极具破坏性 urn必阅读正文之店的信息披*

28、心申朗收入实戏乃位故挤长公司Q3单季度实现14.6%的增长，忌收入达到9.52亿美元. Third Quarter Fiscal 21 Results$1B + Billings $1B + Billings $1B + Billings $1B + Billings $1B + Billings $1B + Billings $952M $340M Total Revenue Free Cash Flow 30% Non-GAAP Operating Margin B1M占批#体收入的44% ; AutoCAD (2D CAD)占29% ;工

29、IE软件(3D CAD、CAE、CAM、PLM)占20% B1M占批#体收入的44% ; AutoCAD (2D CAD)占29% ;工IE软件(3D CAD、CAE、CAM、PLM)占20% B1M占批#体收入的44% ; AutoCAD (2D CAD)占29% ;工IE软件(3D CAD、CAE、CAM、PLM)占20% B1M占批#体收入的44% ; AutoCAD (2D CAD)占29% ;工IE软件(3D CAD、CAE、CAM、PLM)占20% B1M占批#体收入的44% ; AutoCAD (2D CAD)占29% ;工IE软件(3D CAD、CAE、CAM、PLM)

30、占20% B1M占批#体收入的44% ; AutoCAD (2D CAD)占29% ;工IE软件(3D CAD、CAE、CAM、PLM)占20% 媒体娱乐软变眉来源:公司财报.天风证券研究所从销色折来香，建筑设计类软件（BIM ）销售占比达60%. Autodesk Makes Software for People Who Make Things Manufacturing Media $ Entertainment $ Other *30% of Sales -60% of Sales :公司财报•天风证券研炳 -10% of Sales Architec

31、ture, Engineering $ Construction (AEC)公司通过产WEI代置务.享5州»»的f ■怅.IB1睫产品的客户无法享受新产品的功能公司通过产WEI代置务.享5州»»的f ■怅.IB1睫产品的客户无法享受新产品的功能公司通过产WEI代置务.享5州»»的f ■怅.IB1睫产品的客户无法享受新产品的功能公司通过产WEI代置务.享5州»»的f ■怅.IB1睫产品的客户无法享受新产品的功能公司通过产WEI代置务.享5州»»的f ■怅.IB1睫产品的客户无法享受新产品的功能公司通过产WEI代置务.享5州»»的f ■怅.IB1睫产品的客户无法享受新产品的

32、功能资屑来源:公田财报,天风证券研炳百福缮来智库■产品Fusion 360横空出世.集告类工件之大成,商业gMS性.|(||有心的3D CAD , CAM , CAE和PCB软件能力，且只呆顶495暨元的年订间券和1500M元的拓展费用. • HH1•平台型、全产品线是未来工业软件公司的发展签势. Fusion 360 Business Model is Disruptive30pnrc«X* 30pnrc«X* 30pnrc«X* 30pnrc«X* 30pnrc«X* 30pnrc«X* 3OSYSTCMS Altair AN $ creo Altair A

33、N $ creo Altair AN $ creo Altair AN $ creo Altair AN $ creo Altair AN $ creo AUTODESK* FUSION 360' $5,000- $50,000 $5,000- $50,000 $5,000- $50,000 $5,000- $50,000 $5,000- $50,000 $5,000- $50,000 VS $495 Subscription PER YEAR $1,500 Extension —frustum Mastercam nlbpoloqy SIEMENS

34、 NX »oiidThinking 湾 CHTIH —frustum Mastercam nlbpoloqy SIEMENS NX »oiidThinking 湾 CHTIH —frustum Mastercam nlbpoloqy SIEMENS NX »oiidThinking 湾 CHTIH —frustum Mastercam nlbpoloqy SIEMENS NX »oiidThinking 湾 CHTIH —frustum Mastercam nlbpoloqy SIEMENS NX »oiidThinking 湾 CHTIH —frustum Mastercam

35、nlbpoloqy SIEMENS NX »oiidThinking 湾 CHTIH OUTCOME-BASED PRICING FOR GENERATIVE DESIGN :公司财报・天风证券研炳 $13B Make TAM ■ Afchttwtucc• Building Engineering ■ CMI/Sha Fnqtr»oe«ing■ |i»diiM(>dlAW>VOih«i 壅料来源:公司瑚,天风证券研炳百料芽来智库未来，工业领域软件（CAD\CAE\CAM\PLM ）将达到330亿美元市场规模 Manufacturing Opportunity $

36、19B Design TAM $14B Make TAM ■ Drafters■ Mcctwnlcdl Engineers ■ Electrkal Eng»ne

37、扬。西门子己经公布202()财年Q1-Q4的财务情况。从2020年全年来看，公司平稳度过疫情，收入下降2%o Q4单季度，公司工业软件业务受疫情影响有所下降。公司工业软件业务由2019年的43亿欧元下降至2020年的39亿欧元，同比下降6%。西门子工业软件业务在中国逆势上扬，增速达14%。而其他地区都呈现下降态势。(目前中国工业软件行业高景气, 行业内公司有望获得较大发展。)强现金流表现彰显公司强大上下游议价能力。2020年公司虽然收入略微下降, 但是现金流仍然保持强劲态势。公司展望2021：对增长未来，岫ft乐软件将达到5(M3美元市场1Medio 8 Entertainme

38、nt Opportunity$5B DESIGN TAM $5B DESIGN TAM $5B DESIGN TAM $5B DESIGN TAM $5B DESIGN TAM ・ Adv Publ & Graphic Dvi ・ F»Jm & TV ・ Gag 资昼来源:公司咖，天风证券研演百帮绪来智感4 百家号/未来智库软件业务双位数增长，产品云化成为趋势，与京东建立PLM合作黄务必阕读正文之店的值息披■和免IB申明达素,软件业务保持双位触长(17%),占总收入91%.其中，软件订阅收入同比 it任28% ,占软件收入82%.工^软件云化后抗风险

39、能力«WiiE. Q3 & YTD 2020 Performance at a GlanceNon- IFRS Non- IFRS Non- IFRS Non- IFRS Non- IFRS Non- IFRS (M 3Q2O YTOM R«v«nu« 1.030 3.245 Growtn • 13% ♦14% Growth exFX* 1 M?% ♦15% OpeMing Margin 28 2% 28.1% EPS(€) 0.80 255 EPSEvo*ubon •3% •4% •冲WFHUBJO3 "a\YTD UoenM

40、t CM* Software Rtvwu* nn a f rr>» WH r • f QlotROm / 1^K to f • kFpro^wt E8. wtratr*3C«u«，rwunpdotm ti 2CW O>nc ,“\svia)E・08xm gate .仆 S^rrici R, w (.逻Q、z上/ IB W K3I*OH ，■“ 9K^hQ2«» UTAStQC 5MM1' 0RMftrgp4vldt«r

41、revenue +22%+17% 资I43RJI:公司财报,天风证券研究所百御净来智摩生*^类软件1*・崛长.公司生命科学类软件Q琐胜达到498% ,该项收入达到19年Q3的近6倍. 经典工业软件CATIA和ENOVIA收入变化不大，SOUDOWRKS Q3增速为10%. Software Revenue by Product Line nonfrs % Growth «xFX 3Q20 YTD20 I Industrial Innovation software revenue -2% •4% - ―• Double-digit ENOVIA license re

42、venue of whch CATIA •1% growth in Q3 of wh ch ENO VIA ♦4% •7% Life Sciences software revenue+498%*462% —• MEDIDATA total revenue up 13% in Q3 Backlog to benefit for 2021 Mainstream Innovation software revenue*9%+2% Of which SOLIOWORKS・1 吹・3%―. SOLIDWORKS: strong recurring revenue and

43、netimprovement of licenses performance from Q2 变科来源:公司羽报・天风证券研涵工业软件收入占比很高.警体占比达列72%.经典工业软件占比达到50% ,主流的创新工业软件占比达到22% , 生命科学类工业软件占比为18%. Revenue by Product Line IFRS30203019■ YTD 20YTD 19 30203019■ YTD 20YTD 19 30203019■ YTD 20YTD 19 30203019■ YTD 20YTD 19 30203019■ YTD 20YTD 19 30203019

44、■ YTD 20YTD 19 壅料来源:公司财报，天风证券研涵百家■洋来智廖达素与AM电巨头京东在PLMI■■开合作.京东将使用达索的Centric PLM产品，该计划从京东的自有品牌部门之一J.ZAOJf始 Adopts &niric P国F] Founded by UuQanqdcwQ on June 18 1998 JO.com is Ctwa s #1 and Mvorkfs *20 iargest teUitef iMth $79 bAon net revenue o 2019 Business Values: ► The program ts start^g

45、from one ot me«r pwate tabel divisions J ZAO. *»wch manager product data > CudngtiimtovMrtM > Reducing co>u > Dnw^ooMovatton Solution: C«ntrtc PLM 8000 SKUs 2 SOO Offline ittxes 25 Otegones InduAnQ Mmw/JOVWmmV f eed .LA 又CbTtMe MCA wmowt6 Y1D 5 (gUm^wiiOS JOB Or mg — nMEW? 3020 3019

46、 5 Growth •iFX YTO20 YTD 19 Growth •*FX MvtlnilSW rrrtfHM M1 «X* 1.664 1743 (g R g IW rjy Ma 林 WlH t? 5 海 e m 674 666 •J% ♦3% iee .g ♦g * m

47、 Serves 116 (W|% 呻 J26 134 (27% m [low，■…3 L030 ♦g ♦17% 1233 21M ♦14% ♦14% I :公司财报・天风证券研朋注:史关上云米伐由四大产品线构成3D Expenene平台已经可以通过云平台在it筑，飞机.汽车等领域进行数字化设计（性计中■工me软件公司.如中,来来上云只 sgnm） 3DEXPERIENCE on the Cloud: Construction, Cities & TerritoriesJflteQfaecnoCowign"Mrde&Qned

48、ano tocNiQtogyand nwxActurvd JflteQfaecnoCowign"Mrde&Qned ano tocNiQtogyand nwxActurvd JflteQfaecnoCowign"Mrde&Qned ano tocNiQtogyand nwxActurvd JflteQfaecnoCowign"Mrde&Qned ano tocNiQtogyand nwxActurvd JflteQfaecnoCowign"Mrde&Qned ano tocNiQtogyand nwxActurvd JflteQfaecnoCowign"Mrde&Qned

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50、oyo Tires Toyo Tires Toyo Tires Toyo Tires Toyo Tires Digital Orthopedics Boxxcraft 斐料来源：公司财报.天风证券研瑚i 风险提亦(1)疫情影响下游制造业客户侦0受限.询软件主要面对制造业企业,中小企业占多数，资金预算有限，需要投入生产设备或生产材料.疫情影响下，公司削减或础工业1T预算. • (2)竞争激烈.全球看,传统制造业龙头凭借丰富行业经幼.纷纷进军工业软彳牛市场，同时企业信息化厂家凭借ERP等信息系统,进入工业软件市场. 百家号/未来智廊 • (3)研发进展不及预期

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