国际集装箱运输市场：有所反弹.pdf

24栏目责编：姚亚平月度航情观察11月，集运市场有所反弹。需求方面，据CTS统计，1至9月，全球集装箱海运量同比减少1.6%，降幅继续收窄。其中，亚欧线去程方向运量同比增长5.7%，跨太平洋线去程方向减少12.7%。从生产端看，J.P.Morgan发布的2023年10月全球制造业PMI为48.8，环比回落0.4个百分点，新出口订单分项指数为47.5，环比微降0.1个百分点，仍均低于荣枯线。从消费端看，10月美国零售销售同比增长2.5%，再度低于通胀增速3.2%；9月欧元区零售销售同比降幅扩大至2.9%。去库存方面，9月美国零售库存销售比为1.31，较8月的1.3略有增长。运力方面，据Alphaliner统计，1至10月集装箱船交付268艘183.75万TEU，按TEU计，同比增长124%；拆解68艘12.72万TEU，2022年同期拆解2艘2 235TEU；11月初，集装箱船运力同比增长7.3%。截至11月20日，500TEU以上船型非运营运力合计275艘121.35万TEU，占全部运力的4.4%，比10月23日下降0.3个百分点。其中，闲置运力111艘39万TEU，占现役运力的1.4%，比10月23日下降0.2个百国际集装箱运输市场：有所反弹 中远海运研发分点。运价方面，上海航运交易所发布的2023年11月中国出口集装箱综合运价指数（CCFI）均值为855点，环比回升4.8%，同比下降49.2%；反映即期市场运价的上海出口集装箱运价指数（SCFI）均值为1023点，环比回升8.7%，同比下降26.4%。东西干线运价小幅回升，11月美西和美东线CCFI指数均值环比分别增长2.7%和0.9%，欧洲和地中海线指数均值环比均增长2.1%。短期看，美国零售联合会（NRF）估计，2023年12月至2024年3月，美国主要港口集装箱货物进口量同比将依次增长6.8%、3.7%、11.1%和6.5%，同比增长的主要原因是去年同期基数较低。运价方面，随着以星重开跨太平洋“ZEX”航线，以及达飞计划新增跨太平洋线运力，以上海至美西航线为代表的10月中旬以来的运价恢复被打断。2024年，从供需基本面看，运力大幅增加已成定局，但需求的恢复仍面临不确定性。此外，巴拿马运河吃水限制、美东港口劳资谈判、环保规则收紧有可能限制有效运力增长，对市场构成一定的支撑。11月，国际干散货市场持续走高。得益于铁矿石、煤炭和粮食旺盛需求以及由此引发的港口拥堵，巴拿马型船和好望角型船相继发力，带动BDI月底升至2 937点，为2022年5月以来最高。11月BDI均值1 831点，环比下跌1.9%，同比上涨41%。111月BDI均值1 298点，同比下跌34%。好望角型船市场：前期巴西卡拉亚斯铁路火灾事故的影响量约400万吨，事故影响消退后，加上矿价上涨，巴西年底前加速发运铁矿石，造成码头拥挤、运价高涨。11月30日，5条期租航线日租金平均水平飙升至46 681美元，比11月初的15 751美元/天大涨196%。巴拿马型船市场：受亚洲和北大西洋地区需求强劲支持，巴拿马型船收益创下2010年以来第二高涨幅。11月30日，5条期租航线日租金平均水平达19 975美元，比11月初的13 398美元/天上涨49%。灵便型船市场：美湾和南美北海岸发出的谷物运输需求十分稳定。由于收成良好，美国增加了粮食出口，而巴西谷物码头的候港时间已高 中远海运研发国际干散货运输市场：持续上涨v26There was some rebound in the container shipping market in November.DemandAccording to Container Trades Statistics,global seaborne container volume dropped 1.6%YoY in the first nine months of 2023 and the decline range continued to narrow.The trade volume on Asia-Europe outward route increased 5.7%YoY while that on the Trans-Pacific outward route dropped 12.7%YoY.From the production perspective,global PMI in October as J.P.Morgan released was 48.8,0.4 points lower than September.The new export order index dropped 0.1 point to 47.5,still remaining in the contraction zone.From the consumption perspective,retail sales in the U.S.rose 2.5%YoY,again lower than the inflation growth which was 3.2%YoY in October.Retail sales in the Eurozone dropped further to 2.9%YoY in September.In terms of destocking,retail inventory to sales ratio of the U.S.stood at 1.31 level in September,slightly higher than the 1.3 in August.CapacityAlphaliner statistics showed that 268 ships totaling 1,837,500 TEUs of containerships were delivered in the first ten months of 2023,growing 124.0%YoY in TEU terms.68 vessels of 127,200 TEUs were scrapped,compared with two boxships totaling 2,235 TEUs dismantled during the same period of 2022.In early November,fleet capacity grew 7.3%YoY.As of 20 November,inactive fleet ships,each with a size larger than 500 TEUs,added up to 275 units of 1,213,500 TEUs and accounted for 4.4%of the total fleet,0.3%lower than that on 23 October.Thereinto,111 ships of 390,000 TEUs were idled,accounting for 1.4%of current fleet capacity,0.2%lower than that on 23 October.FreightChina Containerized Freight Index(CCFI)released by Shanghai Shipping Exchange averaged 855 points in November,up 4.8%MoM but still down 49.2%YoY.Shanghai Containerized Freight Index(SCFI)reflecting the spot market averaged 1,023 points,up 8.7%MoM but still down 26.4%YoY.As for rates on trunk lanes in November,east-west lanes slightly rebounded.CCFI W/C and E/C America Service averages grew 2.7%MoM and 0.9%MoM respectively while European and Mediterranean service index averages grew 2.1%MoM each.In the short term,according to the forecast of the National Retail Federation of the U.S.,the import volume of containerized goods at major ports of the U.S.will grow by 6.8%,3.7%,11.1%and 6.5%on a yearly basis from December 2023 to March 2024 in monthly order.Major cause of the yearly growth attributes to the smaller base comparing to the same period of the previous year.In terms of freight rates,with ZIM s reopening of the Transpacific ZEX route and CMA CGM s expansion of the Transpacific fleet capacity,the recovery represented by the Shanghai-USWC route since mid-October has been disrupted.For 2024 from the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals,a significant capacity expansion has become a foregone conclusion while demand recovery still remains uncertain.Additionally,draft restrictions of the Panama Canal,labor negotiations at ports of the East Coast of the U.S.,and tightening environmental regulations may limit effective capacity growth,providing some support to the market.International Container Shipping Market Overview:Some Rebound COSCO SHIPPING R&D栏目责编：徐亦宁