美国对华反倾销不确定性对中国企业行为的影响研究.pdf

摘要随着贸易自由化进程的不断推进，尤其是中国加入WTO之后，我国对外贸 易呈快速发展趋势，2001-2018年出口增长了 7.45倍，年均增长12.54%,其中对 美出口增长8.81倍，年均增长13.66%。对外贸易也成为促进我国经济发展的“三 驾马车”之一。但与此同时，我国对外贸易环境也面临新的困境。第一，随着多 轮双边和多边贸易协定的签署，各国已经承诺将关税限制在较低的水平，关税下 降对国际贸易的抑制作用逐渐减小。越来越多的国家开始从关税保护措施向非关 税保护措施转变。其中反倾销因其合法性、隐蔽性和有效性成为各国政府非关税 贸易保护工具的首选。受反倾销调查的产品一旦成立，将会被征收高额反倾销税,极大地增加企业的出口成本。近年来不仅发达国家，而且许多发展中国家也开始 频繁地使用反倾销措施（Prusa,2001反倾销已经逐步从保护本国产业免受国 外企业不正当竞争的保护措施变成实施贸易保护主义的工具，其中中国是遭受反 倾销调查最频繁的国家。1995-2015年全球共发起反倾销调查4219起（不包括中 国对外反倾销），中国共遭受1019起，占调查总数的24.15%。因此，研究反倾 销对中国出口企业行为的影响具有重要意义。第二，随着中美贸易摩擦加剧、英 国脱欧和全球经济增速下滑（IMF,2019）,我国对外贸易面临不确定性不断加大。但是现有文献主要关注确定性的贸易政策对企业行为的影响，对贸易政策不确定 性的研究不足，尤其是缺乏对贸易政策不确定性上升对企业行为影响的研究。因 此，本文针对我国对外贸易面临的两个重要问题，系统地研究反倾销带来的不确 定性对企业在反倾销发起国的进入和退出、投资、工资、雇佣劳动和技能结构的 影响，这将有助于量化反倾销不确定性对我国企业多层次的影响，为我国贸易政 策制定部门通过贸易政策实践或者贸易谈判降低我国企业面对的贸易政策不确 定性提供有价值的参考。为此本文结合当前中国对外贸易面临的具体问题，基于异质性企业视角，从 产品、企业和产品-企业等多个角度出发，全面分析反倾销不确定性对我国出口 企业的影响，具体研究内容和结论如下：第一，研究了反倾销不确定性对企业进入和退出目的地市场的影响。本文首 先利用2000-2015年全球反倾销数据库，发现中国出口到美国的单个HS6位码 I产品遭受反倾销调查的概率很低，只有3.69%,但是某种HS6位码产品在美国遭 受反倾销调查却不成立后，该产品在美国再次被反倾销调查的概率会大大增加(59.09%和21.56%)。此外，本文还发现与受反倾销调查产品同一 HS4位码下其它未受反倾销调查的产品，在今后年份被发起反倾销调查的概率也会显著提高。其次，本文利用2000-2015年中国海关进出口企业数据进行实证研究，发现反倾 销不确定性会显著减少我国新出口受影响产品到美国的企业数量，同时也会降低 己经出口受影响产品到美国的企业退出市场的数量，但是反倾销不确定性对企业 新进入美国市场的负向效应要大于减少企业从美国市场退出的效应，导致总体在 位企业数量的减少。进一步从企业-产品层面的回归发现，反倾销不确定性同时 显著降低出口受影响产品的企业新进入和退出美国市场的概率，与产品层面的回 归结果一致。本文还发现反倾销不确定性具有溢出效应，即反倾销不确定性会显 著降低出口相邻产品企业进入美国市场的数量和概率，但是对已出口相邻产品到 美国企业的退出并没有显著影响。在经过变换处理组控制组，以及各种检验后，回归结果依然很稳健。第二,本文研究反倾销不确定性对企业实际投资的影响。本文利用2000-2013 年工业企业数据库、海关进出口企业数据库和全球反倾销数据库，研究反倾销不 确定性对企业投资的影响。实证结果发现，反倾销不确定性提高会显著增加企业 的投资。在经过一系列检验后，回归结果依然稳健。并且这种效应随着出口强度 的增加而增强，但是对生产率低的企业没有影响。异质性分析还发现，反倾销不 确定性只促进了一般贸易企业、私营企业、多产品企业和直接贸易商投资增加。进一步的机制检验发现，反倾销不确定性只会促使幸存企业投资的增加，而对退 出企业没有显著影响。这是因为生产率低的企业在反倾销不确定性提高后退出了 市场，使得幸存企业面临的竞争减少，会通过增加投资，扩大生产占领现有市场，并且通过提高产品质量避免再次受到反倾销调查的影响。进一步的拓展研究表明，出口到美国产品的反倾销不确定性提升会促使我国企业向第三国投资，而对美国 的投资并没有显著变化，主要的原因可能在于美国对我国发起的反倾销调查主要 涉及劳动密集型产品，而美国在这些产品的生产上并不具备比较优势，从而反倾 销调查受影响的企业并不会对美国进行对外直接投资。第三，研究反倾销不确定性对劳动力市场的影响。本文利用2004和2008年 II中国经济普查数据、2000-2013年工企和海关企业数据和全球反倾销数据，采用 倍差法(differenc e in differenc e,简称DID)的识别策略研究反倾销不确定性对 中国企业就业、工资和技能结构的影响。本文发现，反倾销不确定性增加将会通 过提高“就业创造”增加幸存企业的雇佣规模，并且提高人均工资。在经过一系 列稳健性分析后，回归结果依然成立。机制检验表明，受反倾销影响的企业为了 避免再次受到反倾销的影响会增加投资，加大创新力度，从而会雇佣更多的高技 能劳动从而使得企业人均工资提高。关键词：反倾销；不确定性；进入退出；投资；就业inAbstractWith the c ontinuous progress of trade liberalization,espec ially after Chinas entry into the WTO,Chinas foreign trade has a rapid development trend.F rom 2001 to 2018,exports have inc reased by 7.45 times,with an average annual growth rate of 12.54%,of whic h exports to the United States have inc reased by 8.81 times.The average growth rate is 13.66%.F oreign trade has also bec ome one of the troikas to promote Chinas ec onomic development.But at the same time,Chinas foreign trade environment is also fac ing new dilemmas.F irst,with the signing of multiple rounds of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements,c ountries have promised to limit tariffs to lower bound,and the restraining effec t of tariffs on international trade has gradually dec reased.More and more c ountries have begun to shift from tariff barriers to non-tariff barriers.Among them,anti-dumping has bec ome the first c hoic e of government trade protec tion tools bec ause of its legitimac y,c onc ealment and effec tiveness.Onc e the anti-dumping investigation whic h aims at some produc t are affirmed,high anti-dumping duties are involved will be levied,whic h will greatly inc rease the export c osts of enterprises.In rec ent years,not only the developed c ountries,but also many developing c ountries have begun to frequently use anti-dumping measures(Prusa,2001).Anti-dumping has gradually c hanged from pure protec tion measures to protec t domestic industries from unfair c ompetition by foreign c ompanies into tools fbr implementing protec tionism.Among them,China is the c ountry most frequently subjec t to anti-dumping investigations.F rom 1995 to 2015,a total of 4,219 anti-dumping investigations were initiated worldwide(exc luding Chinas external anti-dumping),and China suffered a total of 1.019,ac c ounting fbr 24.15%of the total number of investigations.Therefore,it is of great signific anc e to study the impac t of anti-dumping on the behavior of Chinese export enterprises.Sec ond,with the intensific ation of Sino-US trade fric tions,Brexit and the dec line in global ec onomic growth(IMF,2019),Chinas foreign trade is fac ing inc reasing unc ertainties.However,the existing literature mainly foc uses on the impac t of deterministic polic ies on firm behavior,and insuffic ient researc h on the unc ertainty of trade polic y,espec ially the lac k of researc hes about the effec t of impac t on the behavior of trade polic y as the unc ertainty rises.Therefore,this paper aims at this two important issues.It systematic ally studies the impac t of the unc ertainty brought by antiIVdumping on the entry and exit,investment,wages,wage labor,and skills struc ture of firms in the c ountries where the anti-dumping is initiated.It helps to quantify the impac t of anti-dumping unc ertainty on all aspec ts of Chinese enterprises,and provides valuable referenc e fbr Chinas trade polic y-making departments to reduc e the unc ertainty of trade polic ies fac ing Chinese enterprises through trade polic y prac tic e or trade negotiations.Therefore,based on the perspec tive of heterogeneous enterprises,this paper c ombining the spec ific problems whic h Chinas foreign trade fec es,analyzes the impac t of anti-dumping on Chinas export enterprises from the perspec tive of produc ts,enterprises and produc t-enterprise.F irst,this paper studies the impac t of anti-dumping unc ertainty on firm dynamic entry and exit.Using the global anti-dumping database from 2000 to 2015,this paper finds that the probability of a HS6-digit produc t exported by China to the United States being subjec t to anti-dumping investigations is very low(only 3.69%).But a c ertain produc t that is subjec t to anti-dumping investigations in the United States will not be affirmed before,the probability of this produc t will be anti-dumped again in the United States inc reases(59.09%and 21.56%).And this paper also find that the HS6-digit produc ts not subjec t to anti-dumping investigation under the same HS4 with the HS6-digit produc t subjec t to anti-dumping investigation is more likely to be subjec t to antidumping investigations.Sec ond,using the Chinas transac tion-level c ustoms database from 2000 to 2015,the empiric al results show that the anti-dumping unc ertainty has signific antly reduc ed the number of new export and exit firms whic h exports affec ted produc t to US market.F urther it is found that at the enterprise-produc t level that antidumping unc ertainty also signific antly reduc es.the probability of new c ompanies whic h export affec ted produc ts entering and exiting the US market,but the anti-dumping unc ertainty has a greater negative effec t on new enterprises entering the US market than the effec t of reduc ing the exit of enterprises from the US market has led to a reduc tion in the number of inc umbent enterprises overall.This paper also finds that the antidumping unc ertainty also signific antly reduc es the probability of c ompanies that export neighboring produc ts to enter the US market,but it has no signific ant impac t on the exit of c ompanies that have exported neighboring produc ts to the United States.After transforming the c ontrol group samples and various tests,the regression results are still robust.Sec ond,this paper studies the impac t of anti-dumping unc ertainty on the ac tual vinvestment of firms.This paper uses 2000-2013 Chinas National Bureau of Statistic s(NBS),Chinas transac tion-level c ustoms database and anti-dumping database to study the impac t of anti-dumping unc ertainty on the ac tual investment of firms.Empiric al results have found that inc reased anti-dumping unc ertainty will inc rease the ac tual investment of firms.After a series of robustness tests,the regression results are still valid.And this effec t strengthens with the inc rease of export intensity,and has no effec t on low produc tivity enterprises.Heterogeneity analysis found that anti-dumping unc ertainty only promoted inc reased investment by ordinary trade c ompanies,private c ompanies,multi-produc t c ompanies,and direc t traders.F urther mec hanism researc h found that the anti-dumping unc ertainty will only promote the inc rease in investment of surviving c ompanies,but will not have a signific ant impac t on the exiting c ompanies.This is bec ause low-produc tivity c ompanies withdraw from the market after the antidumping unc ertainty inc reases,whic h reduc es the c ompetition fac ed by surviving c ompanies.Surviving c ompanies will inc rease investment,expand produc tion to oc c upy existing markets,and avoid re-anti-dumping investigations by improving produc t quality.Impac t.In addition,the inc rease of anti-dumping unc ertainty will also inc rease the ac tual investment level of the enterprise by inc reasing the probability of foreign direc t investment of enterprises,avoiding anti-dumping investigations.With additional studies,this paper finds the inc reasing anti-dumping unc ertainty of HS6-digit produc ts exported to the United States will prompt Chinese enterprises to invest in a third c ountry,while the investment in the United States has not c hanged signific antly.The main reason may be that the anti-dumping investigation initiated by the United States against China mainly involves labor-intensive produc ts,but the United States does not have a c omparative advantage in the produc tion of these produc ts.Third,this paper studies the impac t of anti-dumping unc ertainty on the labor market.This paper uses data from the 2004 and 2008 Chinese ec onomic c ensuses,NBS and Chinas transac tion-level c ustoms database from 2000 to 2013,and uses dids identific ation strategy to study the impac t of anti-dumping unc ertainty on the employment,wages,and skills struc ture of affec t firms.We find that inc reased antidumping unc ertainty will inc rease the employment sc ale of surviving c ompanies and inc rease per c apita wages by inc reasing job c reation”.After a series of robustness analysis,the regression results are still valid.Analysis of the impac t mec hanism shows that in order to avoid being affec ted by anti-dumping again,enterprises affec ted by anti-VIdumping will inc rease investment and inc rease innovation,thereby hiring more high-skilled labor and inc reasing per c apita wages.Keywords:Anti-dumping;Unc ertainty;Enter and Exit;Investment;Employmentvn目录第一章序论.11.1 选题背景及意义.11.1.1 研究背景.11.1.2 研究意义.21.2 研究思路、框架与主要内容.31.2.1 研究思路.31.2.2 研究框架.41.2.3 主要内容.613主要研究方法.71.4创新与不足之处.81.4.1 本文的创新.81.4.2 研究的不足之处.9第二章贸易政策、反倾销不确定性与企业行为：文献综述.102.1 贸易政策简述.102.2 反倾销的起因.112.3 反倾销对企业行为的影响.122.3.1 贸易破坏效应.122.3.2 贸易转向效应.14233贸易转移效应.1523.4 反倾销的非关税效应.162.3.5反倾销对其它企业行为的影响.172.4 贸易政策不确定性（TPU）对企业行为的影响.182.4.1 贸易政策不确定性的度量.182.4.2 贸易政策不确定性与企业出口的动态变动.202.4.3 贸易政策不确定性对企业投资的影响.212.4.4 贸易政策不确定性对企业创新与质量的影响.23245贸易政策不确定性对企业其他方面的影响.242.5 现有研究述评.24第三章美国对华反倾销不确定性的特征事实.273.1 全球反假销措施的使用现状.273.2 美国对华反倾销不确定性的特征事实分析.303.2.1 美国反倾销调查过程.30VIII3.2.2 美国对华发起反倾销调查，但是不成立案例的分布特征.；.33323受到反倾销调查，但是没成立产品的反倾销不确定性.333.2.4受到反倾销调查，但是没成立产品相邻产品的反倾销不确定性.353.3本章小结.36第四章美国对华反倾销不确定性与中国企业进入和退出.394.1 研究背景.394.2 理论模型.424.2.1 消费者偏好.424.2.2 贸易政策不确定性与企业决策.43423贸易政策不确定性与企业进入和退出.444.2.4 市场出清.464.3 识另愀制.484.3.1 受反倾销不确定性影响的企业进入和退出（产品层面）.484.3.2 受反倾销不确定性影响的企业退出美国市场的概率（企业-产品层面）.50433反倾销不确定性影响企业进入新目的地市场（美国）的概率（企业.产品层面）.514.3.4 反倾销不确定性影响企业出口新增产品到美国（原有市场）的概率（企业-产品层面）.534.4 数据处理与变选取.544.5 实证分析.564.5.1 受反倾销不确定性影响的企业进入和退出（产品层面）.564.6 双重差分法有效性检验.604.6.1 安慰剂检验.604.6.2 两期差分法.624.6.3 三重差分法.634.7 稳健性检验.644.7.1 以G6国家（美国除外）的企业作为控制组.644.7.2 区分反倾销不确定性对贸易中间商和直接贸易商的影响.654.7.3 区分反倾销不确定性对单产品和多产品企业数量变化的影响.654.7.4 剔除钢铁行业和纺织品行业的影响.664.7.5 区分非关税效应和反倾销不确定性的影响.674.8 进一步分析.694.8.1 识别策略.69482实证分析.714.9 本章小结.72IX第五章反倾销不确定性对出口企业投资的影响.735.1 研究背景.735.2 贸易政策不确定性如何影响出口企业投资：影响机制分析.745.3 识别策略.765.4 数据处理及统计性描述.775.4.1 数据处理.785.4.2 数据的匹配.795.5 主要解释变的构建.805.6 实证分析.815.6.1 基准回归.815.6.2 双重差分法的有效性检验.835.6.3 反倾销不确定性对企业实际投资规模影响的拓展分析.855.7 异质性检舱.895.7.1 反倾销不确定性对不同所有制企业投资的影响.905.7.2 反倾销不确定性对不同贸易方式企业实际投资的影响.915.7.3 反倾销不确定性对多产品和单产品企业实际投资的影响.925.8 机制检验.925.8.1 反倾销不确定性对资本配置效率的影响.93582反倾销不确定性对企业OF DI的影响.945.9 本章小结.95第六章反倾销不确定性对劳动力市场的影响.976.1 研究背景.976.2 识别策略.986.3 数据处理及统计性描述.996.4 反倾销不确定性对企业雇佣规模的影响.1016.4.1 基准估计.1016.4.2 双重差分法的有效性检验.1036.4.3 反倾销不确定性对企业雇佣规模影响的拓展分析.1056.4.4 异质性分析.1116.5 反倾销不确定性对企业人均工资的影响.1126.5.1 基准估计.113652双重差分法的有效性检验.1146.6 机制检验.1166.7 本章小结.119第七章结论与政策建议.121x7.1 主要结论.1217.2 政策建议.122文献.125致谢.134攻读博士期间科研成果.137XITable of ContentsChapter 1 Introduction.11.1 Research backgroup and Significance.11.1.1 Researc h bac kgroud.11.1.2 Researc h Signific anc e.21.2 Research thought,research framework and main contents.31.2.1 Researc h thought.31.2.2 Researc h framework.41.2.3 Main c ontents.61.3 Main research methods.71.4 The innovation and deficiency of this paper.81.4.1 The innovation of this paper.81.4.2 The defic ienc y of this paper.9Chapter 2 Trade policy,antidumping uncertainty and enterprise behavior:a literature review.102.1 The trade policy brief.102.2 The cause of anti-dumping.112.3 The impact of anti-dumping on enterprise behavior.122.3.1 The effec t of trade destruc tion.122.3.2 The effec t of trade deflec tion.142.3.3 The effec t of trade diversion.152.3.4 The non-tariff effec t of antidumping.162.3.4 The effec t of antidumping on behavior of other enterprises.172.4 The impact of trade policy uncertainty on enterprise behavior.182.4.1 A measure of trade polic y unc ertainty.182.4.2 The dynamic c hanges of trade polic y unc ertainty and enterprise export.202.4.3 The impac t of trade polic y unc ertainty on enterprise investment.212.4.4 The impac t of trade polic y unc ertainty on enterprise innovation and quality 232.4.5 The impac t of trade polic y unc ertainty on other aspec ts of enterprise.242.5 Review of existing studies.24Chapter 3 US Anti-dumping uncertainty on China:characteristic facts 273.1 The current situation of global anti-dumping measures.273.2 The characteristic fact analysis of the uncertainty of American antidumping to China.303.2.1 Americ an anti-dumping investigation proc ess.303.2.2 The United States initiated anti-dumping investigations against China,butXIIdid not establish the distribution c harac teristic s of the c ase.333.2.3 Subjec t to anti-dumping investigation,but no c ase has been established involving produc t unc ertainty.333.2.4 Subjec t to anti-dumping investigation,but no c ase has been established involving the unc ertainty of adjac ent produc ts.353.3 Chapter summary.36Chapter 4 The uncertainty of American anti-dumping against China and Chinese enterprises1 entry and exit.394.1 The background.394.2 Theoretical model.424.2.1 Consumer preferenc es.424.2.2 Trade polic y unc ertainty and firm dec ision.434.2.3 Trade polic y unc ertainty and firm entry and exit.444.2.4 Market c learing.464.3 The recognition mecha