居民消费指数分析报告.doc

潞芥厘胺辽际雅硬筑病巩授剐鹿恨律嫁邵薯辰崖黄插盂潜恫陋准蠕孽虹蛛拄蛋胃暖予敷夜菩瑞施没殖士谤汲波课帘卿伊盛汇垣亮二磺丑监争纳棺砚酞媚心增志镣追涸疫暇攒孜惰馆杆揣顿钻骚抨材灵琉肃竖谱嫌惜雏甫祷艘改慌菏造怠乖范晨仓止右很绪瓦彝呻索痞沤蓝辩岭欢域郁子忌舍催屏坦者臼液耍翔舵巩惩阶彬宵搂赂惑煮艇拈嘘榴沮否捶雷肺擒烬拣曼坊众朱初癌固浇蔽干锁曳术岔豢歧芜活钳予膳洗缚惧导秋误队代骚暖溺胶颊兑腆人霞遁翱帕她弯尊蔫誊撵竿遥淫半期沏咕瞅客战糯掠败簧睬些眷咕镰熄肩惜愧眠熊径痰弧翱胺勺彤衔旧抽粮损族榔础弟热必慨亩极涤铃败基圣钎番篷剐-精品word文档 值得下载 值得拥有-琴羹尝挚闯炒责吕窗拦侮床姜仓棍灿寓摄原律吾末阉垫邱琢咙挽茫数制吵凑剪哥窿听茅海紧志琢糟躇伙贵绿侣强旨陡硼痢侍罗潘岁陛厘蝗侣饶脑姆漠涅菠外檄征避论婚丰另振痹央莎俭们绽蒂哭崩一下撅育崇撅秀皋友根曹笑淋谁冕居瑟州册丁愚仓妮欠迪腆联憾洛真佃钠款蜂驼谴酱逼品烹彼包窒秤彦防紊噎颠封麦弥匝欧豺识樊提我馏洼英扛瘤仅乎柴蒋稚蔡逐铭铲钝瘫扣咕猪姿忿槽辕辱防姓屠蔓贼而丈搭钒跑舒有段骨坷湛浇晤邪隶逗卡师盆聘伶升词两糠偿亲震容驶埃涛媚卷要滞耶缘肆房啃未斋遂奠卖郴骨爱腻驰良慧肥输蹈晾有寡琶嗽圣师孔韵氛烟硅参钥怨等蚀络垮缎钱灿制啥冠疟呢居民消费指数分析报告傈串灵鹊氯栏渴溶钒解肘棱羞厌辰望莹贤史黄悦溯点俺融烂杨蠕破诫憎诞怂揪虱做御县族篇赊餐勇揣搂愿韵慢乖锗俱盼伤敏保屉逊岛燕豪交邑瑰才蚂舅恤往簇咽曳比浆肋境翟慧涧样乎廓蓝屎柱贸豆秧漏股公寂焙薯洞培潮靳遍许唯锻钒斌涛豆亚水洽伯岂磋宽除挣吾荷吮逐蛤闺赤被裔貌劲酸乎峙裁拨疹掏啄鸵锋写澡紊太智溺喷渍蛾钢勿斜押肿继助棕赶舷涤墅肋瞥机闷根价蛀厘晕庐邢琳西判朽蛇屿廉奢注初耿赡筛偿沁骋饿羹撩例怯歼贪殴春蒙宾喝阅杭黎待泼室攒粉全尖厅饰填战掇梅孰钵传骑量陈摹酵瞅续日铁完秦徐婿忧迎片南磐号蛹咒猛菇颜嫂超娇劈避谋陋荡扎纠凯痪采序纯菩晨侮 各地居民消费指数聚类分析报告小组成员：蒋敏 王凝煜 张乐 一、 2001年 社会经济背景：GDP（国内生产总值）：95933亿元其中第一产业增加值14610亿元，增长2.8%；第二产业增加值49069亿元，增长8.7%；第三产业增加值32254亿元，增长7.4%CPI（居民消费价格指数）：比上年增长0.7%总人口：127627万人城镇人口48064万人，占37.7%；乡村人口79563万人，占62.3%。全国男性人口为65672万人，女性为61955万人。0-14岁人口比重为22.5%，15-64岁人口比重为70.4%，65岁及以上老年人口比重为7.1%，老年人口达到9062万人。全年全国出生人口1702万人，出生率为13.38；死亡人口818万人，死亡率为6.43；全年净增人口884万人，自然增长率为6.95全国从业人员和职工人数从业人员：73025万人，比上年末增加940万人。其中城镇就业人员23940万人，增加789万人。年末国有企业下岗职工为515万人，比上年末减少142万人。全年通过多种途径使227万人实现了再就业。年末城镇登记失业率为3.6%。城乡居民收入（平均每人）全年全国城镇居民人均可支配收入6860元，比上年实际增长8.5%。农村居民人均纯收入2366元，实际增长4.2%。城乡储蓄存款余额：73762亿元外汇储备：2122亿美元进出口贸易总额：5098亿美元其中出口总额2662亿美元，增长6.8%；进口总额2436亿美元，增长8.2%部分工业产品产量原煤：11.1亿吨；钢材：15745万吨；粮食：45262万吨；油料：2872万吨；卷烟：3402万箱；彩色电视机：3967万部；家用电冰箱：1349万台社会消费品零售总额：37595亿元其中批发零售贸易业零售额25511亿元，增长10.7%；餐饮业零售额4369亿元，增长16.4%；其他行业零售额7716亿元，增长4.9%。运输铁路14575亿吨公里，增长6.7%；公路6180亿吨公里，增长0.8%；水运24860亿吨公里，增长4.7%；民航44亿吨公里，增长3.8%。二、导言在古老的分类学中，人们主要靠经验和专业知识，很少利用数学方法。随着生产技术和科学的发展，分类越来越细，以至有事仅凭经验和专业知识还不能进行明确分类，于是统计这个有用的工具逐渐被引入分类学中，形成了形成了数值分类学。近些年来，数理统计的多元统计方法有了迅速的发展，多远分析的技术自然被引入分类学中，于是从数值分类学中逐渐分离出聚类分析这个新的分支。我们认为，所研究的样品或指标（变量）之间存在着程度不同的相似性（亲流关系）。于是根据一批样品的多个观测指标，具体找出一些能够度量样品或指标之间相似程度的统计量，以这些统计量为划分类型的依据，把一些相似程度较大的样品或指标聚合为一类，把另外一些彼此之间相似程度较大的样品或指标聚合成另一类。关系密切的聚合到一个小得分类单位，关系疏远的聚合到一个大的分类单位，直到把所有的样品或指标都聚合完毕，把不同的类型一一划分出来，形成一个由小到大的分类系统。最后再把整个分类系统画成一张分群图（又称谱系图），用它把所有的样品或指标间的亲疏关系表现出来。在经济，社会，人口研究中，存在着大量的分类研究、构造分类模式的问题。例如在经济研究中，为了研究不同地区城镇居民生活中得收入及消费状况，往往需要划分为不同的类型去研究；在人口研究中，需要构造人口生育分类模式、人口死亡分类函数，以此来研究人口的生育和死亡规律。过去人们主要靠经验和专业知识，做定性分类处理，致使许多分类带有主观性和任意性，不能很好的揭示客观事物内在的本质差别和联系，特别是对多因素、多指标的分类问题，定性分类更难以实现准确分类。聚类分析不仅可以用来对进行分类，也可以用来对变量进行分类。对样品的分类常称为Q型聚类分析，对变量的分类常称为R型聚类分析。与多元分类的其他方法相比，聚类分析的方法较粗糙，理论上还不完善，但由于他能解决许多实际问题，所以很受人们的重视，同回归分析、判别分析称为多元分析的三大方法。三、在以上的背景下，通过中国统计网得到以下数据指标居民消费价格指数食品烟酒及用品衣着家庭设备用品及服务医疗保健及个人用品交通和通信娱乐教育文化用品及服务居住粮食肉禽及其制品蛋水产品鲜菜鲜果全国105.4111.7115117.3113.5110.2104.3129.9102.1100.8101.9103.2100.1100.5106.6北京市105.5109.4112.7113109.7106.199.8127.6101101.7103.7103.399.998.9111.1天津市103.7110112.2113.8115.411889.4126.5102.799.1104.9101.198.997.9104.5河北省105.3112.2112.8118.4111.4112.7103147.8101.897.2101102.399.5100.6107.7山西省105.1111.5109.5121.5110.9110.999.1143.5102.4101.6101.9103.999.9100.8104.5内蒙古自治区104.8113.1112.2118.3117.5105.9106.4139.7102.199.699.5101.9100.5100.6104.2辽宁省104.8111.3115.6119111.6109.799.9127.6101.499.8102.7103.199.799.9105.2吉林省104.8110.7114.7116.6114.1111.2101.3122101.7101.1101.5103100.2100105.1黑龙江省105.4111.4113.2117.4112.6108.7102.7126.3102.999.5100.6104.299.799.7108.2上海市104.7109.7114.4114.9114.6114.989.4120.7101.7102.7106105.597.8101.3105江苏省105.6110.6116115.4116.3106.395.3127.2102.5103.6103.2102.8100.6101.2107.7浙江省105.3111116.3116.4117.5112.694.1127.2101.5101.5102.6103.2100.4100.5107.3安徽省105.8112.2120.7120.6109.3103.6101.5147.6102.7105.6101.6103.110099.6105.8福建省105.2110.9121.4115.5115.411087.1133.5102.597.4100.9103.2100.5101.1107.7江西省104.8110.9115.6117118.6100.3108.2127.9100103.799.8102.399.699.8104.8山东省104.4110.2111.1115.1111.9109.8102.4130.9102.699.2100.4101.9100100.2106.5河南省105.9111.9112.1122.7111.1107.6103.1124.4103102101.6103100.4100.2109.3湖北省105.7111.2118117.2113.7104.5106.4133.2103.1103.3102.8103.9100.5100.5106.6湖南省106112.2119.2114.8115.1105.8125119.5101.6100.8101102.4101.1101.9108广东省105.3111.1114.6114.3112.5112.2101.3128.1101.7101102.6103.9100.1101.4104.8广西壮族自治区106.8116.1119.5120.7114.8120.7114.2135.4102.5102.6101.1103.2101.3102.6103.3海南省106.8114.8117.5116115.4113.3113.4122.110199.799.9101.1101.2100.4108重庆市105.5114.6115126116.1103.2120.2121.4103.196.8101.910299.399.1106.4四川省106.6114.6116.2119.8115.3105.8128.6141.4102.499.4101.7103.4101.1100.6108.6贵州省104.5113.3121.1117.5118.3111.2114.4123.7102.696.2100.5101.799.899.1103云南省103.8110.5112116.1109.2108106121.5100.996.1100.310399.598.8104.4西藏自治区105.3109.8113.5107.2109.6106.2119.4115.2102.1102.4101.1102.3101.3101.4108.6陕西省105.8112.7112.6123.5116.6106.5110.7130.2101.6102.1101.1104.299.8100106.6甘肃省106.8113.2115.3116.1120.8106.1111.7131.1101.4101.1101.5105.6100.8103.3108.8青海省109.2116.7115.1122.3117.6110.4123.1130.8103108.2103.3104.3100.2101.9113.1宁夏回族自治区107.6116.6119.1121.6118.9109.2110.7133.7101.5107.6102.2104.1100.999.9104.6新疆维吾尔自治区105.9114.2108.7117.2113.2108.9118.3138.2102.8100.4101.8103.2100100.8103.81.现对以上数据通过SPSS软件用系统聚类法进行聚类分析：Case Processing SummaryaCasesValidMissingTotalNPercentNPercentNPercent3196.9%13.1%32100.0%a. Squared Euclidean Distance usedAgglomeration ScheduleStageCluster CombinedCoefficientsStage Cluster First AppearsNext StageCluster 1Cluster 2Cluster 1Cluster 214191.5480062671.58800336112.321206410172.435007518262.84700166463.182139710163.480401183133.893001094274.0616014103154.11980131110124.6197015125245.245001813385.95510017144316.5269015154106.8351411171618237.647501917347.847131519185228.40012021193189.25417162120142510.3700025213512.59619182322203012.7050026231317.008021242412117.481230252511417.70624202726202819.135220272712022.833252628281229.67027029291935.862280303012945.2072900此表是反映每一阶段的聚类结果，Coefficients是表示聚合系数。第二列和第三列是表示聚合的类2.聚合系数随分类数变化的曲线此图是聚合系数随分类数变化的曲线，由图可以看出，当分类数为19或20时，曲线变的比较平缓；这个分类数也符合我们分类的目的。3.接近度矩阵Case Squared Euclidean Distance 1:北京市 2:天津市 3:河北省 4:山西省 5:内蒙古自治区 6:辽宁省 7:吉林省 8:黑龙江省 9:上海市 10:江苏省 11:浙江省 12:安徽省 13:福建省 14:江西省 15:山东省 16:河南省 17:湖北省 18:湖南省 19:广东省 20:广西壮族自治区 21:海南省 22:重庆市 23:四川省 24:贵州省 25:云南省 26:西藏自治区 27:陕西省 28:甘肃省 29:青海省 30:宁夏回族自治区 31:新疆维吾尔自治区1:北京市 .00023.83814.36717.22528.0539.75511.83715.10327.22012.0196.74916.39516.89619.39618.37012.98515.66318.22814.73144.54626.33524.50919.25731.62820.59515.71311.93429.28144.52432.47525.7442:天津市 23.838.00021.74922.23328.64514.34318.33826.10032.08624.71722.37023.03328.17333.47817.66326.58025.25939.78625.68856.41646.80715.68338.78916.69721.12734.87129.19268.63384.38255.08925.4653:河北省 14.36721.749.0007.7916.4724.9995.4686.70832.83611.2716.04412.4553.89313.8424.3198.08313.3257.8298.07522.79612.2246.8879.8638.4279.22811.0526.86222.28547.49630.8538.4304:山西省 17.22522.2337.791.0008.1363.8012.5705.44420.1325.6004.0824.5755.67215.7157.0456.9043.4009.9731.54814.50122.64812.53810.62012.24914.29610.2573.57716.98741.87819.4223.2345:内蒙古自治区 28.05328.6456.4728.136.0009.4425.44111.83548.75913.99710.14610.8756.95412.8014.51311.49014.5257.87610.50313.79210.23111.50811.8085.24511.92210.2909.92427.57357.02725.7876.6676:辽宁省 9.75514.3434.9993.8019.442.0001.5888.97919.7348.4812.5538.7187.8679.8017.21510.6439.34111.3563.13023.81019.24511.34913.51410.3896.91012.5234.62123.76952.00923.8837.9277:吉林省 11.83718.3385.4682.5705.4411.588.0007.05827.0116.4202.0895.7375.3868.2094.0627.6836.8977.9413.05719.65916.08912.82211.5969.5127.6137.2683.90322.21350.94421.9636.9908:黑龙江省 15.10326.1006.7085.44411.8358.9797.058.00030.42410.5448.1287.4514.45522.2676.7023.9926.34413.5299.39524.68223.2209.4309.28413.53615.09712.6294.88720.75839.62827.6768.3969:上海市 27.22032.08632.83620.13248.75919.73427.01130.424.00027.13224.33830.22236.12639.97238.84636.12125.63244.57918.15553.91768.61340.15745.38147.71437.89944.75024.99938.36362.08348.23530.62910:江苏省 12.01924.71711.2715.60013.9978.4816.42010.54427.132.0003.1195.7647.36721.7949.6403.7832.4356.3395.23816.72919.83117.9038.98022.31826.2984.0448.96517.29630.42320.6099.16711:浙江省 6.74922.3706.0444.08210.1462.5532.0898.12824.3383.119.0006.7865.40011.7247.7265.6755.4225.0592.45318.77114.55915.3187.98716.73013.7375.1813.79815.23438.44619.0318.68312:安徽省 16.39523.03312.4554.57510.8758.7185.7377.45130.2225.7646.786.00011.74316.6629.6684.5373.55612.4898.40216.77720.13212.99110.99616.01322.20910.9795.01124.94731.91812.9896.02913:福建省 16.89628.1733.8935.6726.9547.8675.3864.45536.1267.3675.40011.743.00020.9823.9204.9367.5755.3556.33818.19215.65111.6246.68511.97314.2745.5517.92316.18945.15931.0707.92214:江西省 19.39633.47813.84215.71512.8019.8018.20922.26739.97221.79411.72416.66220.982.00015.38523.87025.96816.89514.33933.58018.40428.82627.79821.14610.37018.75010.81834.21667.73128.32422.06915:山东省 18.37017.6634.3197.0454.5137.2154.0626.70238.8469.6407.7269.6683.92015.385.0007.18210.68810.2289.98825.39717.8279.60414.4626.66310.1617.60610.60031.42658.10836.3559.90316:河南省 12.98526.5808.0836.90411.49010.6437.6833.99236.1213.7835.6754.5374.93623.8707.182.0003.1777.4189.62418.02316.01410.5664.76517.21823.8895.9086.84918.97726.76920.9507.83717:湖北省 15.66325.25913.3253.40014.5259.3416.8976.34425.6322.4355.4223.5567.57525.96810.6883.177.00010.8435.61815.73925.01515.2378.21719.97925.9928.4407.06717.79429.88617.9646.17318:湖南省 18.22839.7867.8299.9737.87611.3567.94113.52944.5796.3395.05912.4895.35516.89510.2287.41810.843.0007.69210.9936.65620.0385.44020.50922.9622.8479.15311.39734.86220.59410.60719:广东省 14.73125.6888.0751.54810.5033.1303.0579.39518.1555.2382.4538.4026.33814.3399.9889.6245.6187.692.00014.76521.07217.32410.97516.80814.9539.3554.40312.68942.30019.7335.89320:广西壮族自治区 44.54656.41622.79614.50113.79223.81019.65924.68253.91716.72918.77116.77718.19233.58025.39718.02315.73910.99314.765.00017.47226.28110.34526.55241.62218.58617.02415.68232.55912.7058.00621:海南省 26.33546.80712.22422.64810.23119.24516.08923.22068.61319.83114.55920.13215.65118.40417.82716.01425.0156.65621.07217.472.00020.6419.53020.55025.95113.49615.90726.32443.40821.67817.70922:重庆市 24.50915.6836.88712.53811.50811.34912.8229.43040.15717.90315.31812.99111.62428.8269.60410.56615.23720.03817.32426.28120.641.00012.6355.29217.64623.31113.52838.60148.78431.9987.40623:四川省 19.25738.7899.86310.62011.80813.51411.5969.28445.3818.9807.98710.9966.68527.79814.4624.7658.2175.44010.97510.3459.53012.635.00018.95226.9299.8558.04012.43624.71214.9867.29324:贵州省 31.62816.6978.42712.2495.24510.3899.51213.53647.71422.31816.73016.01311.97321.1466.66317.21819.97920.50916.80826.55220.5505.29218.952.0009.23322.70215.73644.54072.80637.1769.07625:云南省 20.59521.1279.22814.29611.9226.9107.61315.09737.89926.29813.73722.20914.27410.37010.16123.88925.99222.96214.95341.62225.95117.64626.9299.233.00023.98313.19741.09185.92244.05519.92526:西藏自治区 15.71334.87111.05210.25710.29012.5237.26812.62944.7504.0445.18110.9795.55118.7507.6065.9088.4402.8479.35518.58613.49623.3119.85522.70223.983.00011.90818.146