2026年中国商业十大热点报告.pdf

What the experts sayJanuary 2026Ten Highlights of Chinas Commercial Sector 202601Preface02About the Organizations03Expert Panel Members04Implications for Businesses and Tips for Enterprises08Ten Highlights for 2026Contents1PrefaceThe HKUST Li&Fung Supply Chain Institute and the Expert Committee of the China General Chamber of Commerce are pleased to present the 23rd edition of our annual report,Ten Highlights of Chinas Commercial Sector.In 2025,Chinas commercial sector continued to evolve,driven by supportive government policies,technological advancements,and changing consumer behaviour.This year witnessed significant progress in various areas,highlighting the dynamic nature of the sector and the businesses operating within it.New types of consumption,particularly digital and tech-driven consumption,experienced substantial growth as artificial intelligence(AI)and other technologies became increasingly prevalent.Service consumption is also on the rise,as consumers seek more engaging and immersive experiences.Emerging trends such as green consumption and emotional spending are opening up fresh avenues for businesses.Chinese commercial businesses have demonstrated remarkable resilience and adaptability in response to shifting consumer preferences and a competitive market landscape.The growing emphasis on consumer experiences has prompted retail businesses to incorporate AI technologies into their products and services,and to create offerings that merge retail with cultural,leisure,and sports elements.In light of the intensifying competition in the domestic market,some companies are pursuing international expansion for growth.Effective localization strategies and strategic partnerships are crucial for their global endeavours.With input from more than 160 top-tier mainland experts,Ten Highlights once again identifies the top trends of the past year and anticipates the developments that will shape Chinas commercial landscape in 2026.The year 2026,marking the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan period,is a critical juncture that connects the past and the future.We expect Chinas commercial sector to continue its growth trajectory,driven by trends such as increasing digital and tech-driven consumption,a rising demand for services,expanding rural markets,and a commitment to green transformation.Government policies aimed at boosting incomes and consumption will further support this growth.Meanwhile,businesses are set to intensify their efforts in service innovation,online-offline integration,AI adoption,and international expansion to adapt to the evolving economic landscape,paving the way for a vibrant market in the coming year.Ten Highlights is a valuable resource for global brands and retailers,and firms and individuals seeking to better understand the latest commercial trends,issues,and opportunities in China.We wish to thank all panel members of the Expert Committee for sharing their important insights,and our colleagues at the HKUST Li&Fung Supply Chain Institute for their many contributions.Helen ChinHKUST Li&Fung Supply Chain Institute12About the OrganizationsThe Expert Committee of the China General Chamber of CommerceThe Expert Committee of the China General Chamber of Commerce(ECCGCC),a sub-division of the CGCC,comprises over 160 prominent experts from various government departments,research institutes and universities,leading corporations,professional associations,consultancy firms and newspaper offices,which include the Ministry of Commerce,the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,China Chain Store and Franchise Association and the Renmin University of China,etc.The ECCGCC serves as a platform for the experts to exchange ideas on the development of commercial enterprises and the distribution sector.The China General Chamber of CommerceFounded in 1994,the China General Chamber of Commerce(CGCC)has around 80,000 members,encompassing enterprises from retail,distribution,services and tourism sectors,local commercial chambers,national professional associations,intermediary organizations and individuals.Commissioned by the Chinese Government,the CGCC consists of 14 business committees.It also supervises 40 national associations and 33 newspapers and magazines published both inside and outside China.HKUST Li&Fung Supply Chain InstituteThe HKUST Li&Fung Supply Chain Institute(Institute)accelerates the creation,global dissemination,and practical application of new knowledge for managing tomorrows supply chains.The Institute seeks to develop local and international talent in supply chain management through teaching,professional development,and exchanges at specialist conferences.It brings together leaders in industry,academia,and the public sector in a new collaboration for research,executive education and practice focused on innovation in business models,sustainable supply chain design,process re-engineering,and the rapid adoption of new technologies.These outcomes are vital in addressing the need for visionary,innovative supply chain management in the face of rapid technological advancements,disruption from geopolitical tensions,and concerns related to sustainability and climate.Jointly established by HKUST and supply chain industry leader Li&Fung,the Institute brings together research excellence and industry expertise in supply chain management to drive real-world impact across the Greater Bay Area,Greater China,Asia,and globally,while contributing to Hong Kongs development as a multinational supply chain management center.23Expert Panel MembersLi TaoGroup Chief Representative Northern ChinaLi&Fung(Development)China Ltd.Li XiangboVice ChairmanChina General Chamber of CommerceMa ZengjunPresidentChina Agriculture Wholesale Market AssociationRen XingzhouFormer Director,Research FellowInstitute for Market Economy,Development Research Center of the State CouncilSong YuanyuanDeputy DirectorDigital Intelligence Information and Policy Research Department,China General Chamber of CommerceSong ZeResearch FellowNational Academy of Economic Strategy,Chinese Academy of Social SciencesWang ChunjuanProfessorBeijing College of Finance and CommerceWang RuidaDirectorCommunity Department,China Chain Store&Franchise Association Wang XiaodongProfessorBusiness School,Renmin University of ChinaWeng XinManager(Research)HKUST Li&Fung Supply Chain InstituteChang Ka MunExecutive Director;MemberHKUST Li&Fung Supply Chain Institute;Chinese Peoples Political Consultative Conference(1998 2018)Chen JinranAssociate ProfessorCapital University of Economics and BusinessChen LipingProfessorCapital University of Economics and BusinessDing JunfaFormer Executive Vice Chairman,Research FellowChina Federation of Logistics&PurchasingFu LongchengMember of the Standing Committee of the CGCC Party Committee;Director,Senior EconomistChina General Chamber of Commerce;Expert Committee of the China General Chamber of Commerce Fu YuehongPresidentBeijing Chamber of CommerceGuo XinmeiProfessorFaculty of Economics,Beijing Technology and Business University Hu RuochiProfessor,Research FellowInstitute of International Economics,University of International Business and EconomicsHuang HaiFormer Minister AssistantMinistry of CommerceWu YingVice ChairmanChina Cuisine AssociationXie LijuanProfessorBusiness School,Renmin University of ChinaYang JinlongDeputy Secretary General,Director of the Secretariat Expert Committee of the China General Chamber of CommerceYang QingsongVice Chairman,Secretary GeneralChina Commerce Association for General MerchandiseYao LimingFormer Director,Research FellowChina Commercial Group Commercial Economic Research Center Yin XiaDeputy Division ChiefStatistical Information Division,China National Commercial Information CenterYu DiDeputy Director,Secretary GeneralExpert Committee of the China General Chamber of CommerceZhang HaoResearcher;Deputy DirectorNational Academy of Economic Strategy,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;Editorial Department,Finance and Trade EconomicsZhao GangDeputy Editor-in-ChiefChina Business HeraldZhu HeliangPresident,ProfessorBrand Research Institute,Beijing University of Technology4Implications for Businesses and Tips for EnterprisesCapitalize on the growing consumer market for business opportunitiesThe Chinese government is actively working to create a unified national market,which aims to enhance market connectivity,streamline regulations,and reduce local protectionism.This initiative will foster an environment that encourages business growth and consumer engagement,contributing to a robust domestic market.(Highlight 1)The government is also promoting consumption as a key driver of economic growth,implementing various initiatives to boost the consumer market and refine the consumption-driving mechanisms to drive sustainable consumption growth.(Highlight 2)In 2025,Chinas commercial sector experienced steady growth and significant transformation,fuelled by supportive government policies,technological advancements,and changing consumer behaviour.The year witnessed remarkable progress in new types of consumption,experiential spending,digital transformation,and green initiatives,reflecting the dynamic nature of the commercial sector.Government efforts to expand and upgrade domestic consumption were crucial in cultivating a robust consumer market,even amid challenges like low consumer confidence and economic uncertainties.Various sectors contributed to the growth of Chinas commercial sector in 2025.New types of consumption,particularly digital and tech-driven,surged as artificial intelligence(AI)and other technologies became more widely adopted.The growth in service consumption outpaced that of physical goods,with innovative models combining commerce,culture,tourism,and sports gaining traction.Moreover,emerging consumer trends such as eco-friendly products and emotional consumption opened up new opportunities for businesses.Looking ahead to 2026the opening year of the 15th Five-Year Plan(2026-2030)Chinas commercial sector is positioned for continued growth.Key trends such as rising digital and tech-driven consumption,increased demand for services,expanding rural markets,and a push for green transformation are expected to drive the consumer landscape.Government policies aimed at boosting incomes and consumption will further bolster this growth.Meanwhile,businesses will ramp up their efforts in areas like service innovation,online-offline integration,AI adoption,and international expansion to take advantage of the evolving economic landscape,paving the way for a vibrant market in the coming year.As Chinas commercial sector continues to evolve,companies that prioritize adaptability will likely thrive.The ability to anticipate and respond to changing trends will be crucial for success in this dynamic landscape.5Our take:The Chinese consumer market is full of opportunities.Enterprises should closely monitor and align their strategies with government policies that foster a unified and strong domestic market.This involves adapting to new regulations that promote fair competition and market access.Businesses can also engage with local initiatives to provide the products and services desired by consumers.Foreign companies might consider partnering with local firms to navigate regulatory landscapes effectively and take advantage of government incentives aimed at stimulating consumption.By aligning with national strategies,businesses can better seize growth opportunities in this evolving market.Enhance consumer experience through integrated experiences and innovationService consumption is witnessing significant growth,driven by a shift towards experience-driven consumption.Consumers are increasingly seeking engaging and immersive experiences.The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence(AI)is creating new service scenarios that blend immersive experiences with real time interactions and personalization.Traditional commercial spaces are also being transformed into experiential destinations with innovative retail and entertainment options.(Highlights 2,4&6)Our take:Businesses must adapt to this trend by creating integrated offerings that combine retail with cultural,leisure,and sports elements for a complete consumer experience.Incorporating AI technologies can help tailor services in retail,tourism,and lifestyle sectors to meet individual consumer preferences.Companies that embrace AI-driven innovations will be better equipped to meet changing consumer demands and stand out in a competitive market.Embrace digital transformationAI-powered digital twin technology is revolutionizing traditional supply chain control towers,while lights-out automated warehouses are rapidly expanding across China.Catering businesses are increasingly adopting digital innovations such as cooking robots and intelligent delivery.Digital technologies and data analytics are reshaping how businesses operate and engage with consumers.Digital transformation is no longer optional;it is essential for businesses to remain competitive.(Highlights 3&7)Our take:Enterprises should prioritize investments in advanced technology such as AI,big data analytics,and blockchain.These tools not only help streamline processes and optimize supply chains,but also provide insights into consumer behaviour,allowing for targeted marketing and product development.By embracing digital transformation,businesses can position themselves for long-term success.Foreign businesses can partner with local tech firms for guidance to navigate the rapidly evolving digital landscape in China.6Go green and embrace sustainabilityChinas green consumption is shifting from being primarily policy-driven to market-led.Consumers are increasingly willing to pay a premium for eco-friendly and ethically sourced products.Green consumption scenarios are expanding from basic products into lifestyle services.(Highlight 5)Our take:Enterprises should adopt sustainable practices across their operations,from sourcing and product design to packaging and logistics.Developing eco-friendly products and promoting transparency in sustainability efforts can build consumer trust.Engaging in green initiatives such as carbon offset programmes and waste reduction strategies can enhance brand reputation and loyalty.Companies that prioritize sustainability will resonate with a growing segment of consumers and gain a competitive edge.Explore opportunities in rural and county-level areasAs China emphasizes integrated urban-rural development,county-level commerce is evolving into a dynamic hub for production,circulation,and consumption,offering significant opportunities for businesses looking to expand beyond urban centres.With rising rural incomes,improved infrastructure,and digital transformation,there is a growing demand for diverse products and services in rural and county-level areas.(Highlight 8)Our take:Enterprises should conduct market research to understand the unique demands of rural and county-level consumers,and tailor their offeri