2026十大AI技术趋势.pdf

十大技术趋势?2025?2026?“Next-State Prediction”?Agent?MAS?Agent?AI For Science?AI?AIOS?Super App?“All in One”?to C?B?POC?AI?“?”?.?02世界模型成为AGI 共识方向，Next-State Prediction 或成新范式p04?具身智能迎来行业“出清”，产业应用迈入广泛工业场景p06?具身智能多模态世界模型多智能体系统决定应用上限，Agent 时代的“TCP/IP”初具雏形p08?AI AgentAI Scientist成为AI4S北极星，国产科学基础模型悄然孕育p12?AI4SAI时代的新BAT 趋于明确，垂直赛道仍有高盈利玩法p15?ToC 应用产业应用滑向“幻灭低谷期”，2026H2迎来“V 型”反转p18?ToB 应用合成数据占比攀升，有望破除“2026年枯竭魔咒”p21?合成数据推理优化远未触顶，“技术泡沫”是假命题p23?推理优化开源编译器生态汇聚众智，异构全栈底座引领算力普惠p25?AI编译器从幻觉到欺骗，AI 安全迈向机制可解释与自演化攻防p27?AI安全?p30?03Trend104?2024?“?+?”?OpenAI?Google?xAI?Scaling Law?DiT?Diffusion Transformer?CLIP?LLM?Scaling?“Next Token Prediction”?“Next-State Prediction”世界模型成为AGI共识方向，Next-State Prediction或成新范式?NSP?NSP?“?”?AI?“?”?“?”?2025?World Labs?2025?RTFM?3D?OpenAI?Sora 2?Trend1?DiT?NSP?2025?10?Emu3.5?Token?NSP?OmniGen2?RoboBrain?NSP?Ling?Ming?Ring?Ming?/?/?Ring?“?icepop?”?GPT-5?05?王仲远北京智源人工智能研究院 院长?Trend2具身智能迎来行业“出清”，产业应用迈入广泛工业场景?2024?“?”?Demo?2025?“?”?230?100?“?”?“?”?“?+?”?OOD?2024?2025?B?IPO?Physical Intelligence?*0.6?Recap?Tesla Robotics?Optimus 2.5?RoboBrain2.0?RoboBrain-X0?06?Trend2?07?Chelsea FinnPhysical Intelligence首席执行官?Robbyant-R1?Trend3?SAS?Langchain?State of Agent Engineer-ing?SAS?63%?MAS?42.1%?Agent?Pilot?MAS?SAS?MAS?Diversity?SAS?AI?Agent?Anthropic?OpenAI?08?多智能体系统决定应用上限，Agent时代的“TCP/IP”初具雏形?Anthropic?57%?2026?81%?39%?29%?OpenAI?Custom GPTs?GPT?19?API?Token?320?Trend3?09?n?Jurors?p?p 0.5?Majority Vote?P?n?MAS?Agent?60%?100%?Independence?Diversity?AI?“?Mode Collapse?”?“?Information Cascades?”?“?”?MCP?A2A?MAS?Langchain?AutoGen?CrewAI?MAS?“?”?“?”?Agent?2026?Agent?MAS?Agent Skills?MAS?MAS Paradigm=Protocols Orchestration *(Cognitive Core+Tools)Sandbox?UI?Trend3?10?MCP?A2A?UI?MCP?A2A?2025?Linux?2025?6?Agent2Agent?Google?Linux?“Agent2Agent Project”?2025?12?MCP?Anthropic?Linux?AAIF?Linux?MCP?“?Narrow Waist?”?IP?Web?HTTP?A2A?Agent?Microsoft?Google?Anthropic?AWS?IBM?LangChain?AutoGen?CrewAI?ACP?IBM?ACP?A2A?“MCP+A2A”?“Agent?Agent”?Agent?UI?Google?Cisco?W3C?Langchain?A2UI?AP2?Agntcy?2026?Agent?MAS?A2A?Trend3?11?Satya NadellaMicrosoft 首席执行官?MCP?Agent?Agent?“Narrow Waist”?MAS?MAS?Agent?Trend412?AI Scientist成为AI4S北极星，国产科学基础模型悄然孕育?2025?AI for Science?AI4S?CoPilot?AI Scientist?AI?AI Scientist?“?”?AI?Science Foundation Models?AI?Agentic Workflow?AI?AI?Trend4?13AI for Science?2025?11?24?“?Genesis Mission?”?AI?DOE?2019?2020?Rick Stevens?“AI for Science”?“?”?AI4S?“?”?STEM?TPC?AuroraGPT?FASST?“?+?+?-?”?“?”?0?1?17?APST?The Assistant to the President for Science and Technolo-gy?AuroraGPT?Chris Wright?SMR?Chris Wright?Dario Gil?Rick Stevens?“?”?AI?2014?40?2025?4.6PB?AI4S?AI?AI4S?Trend4?14?Rick Stevens“创世纪计划”核心科学家、美国阿贡国家实验室副主任?Trend515?AI时代的“新BAT”趋于明确，垂直赛道仍有高盈利玩法?AI?AI?C?AI?“Super App?”?“All in One”?AI?ChatGPT?Gemini?APP?DAU?AI 2.0?“All in One”?Google?2023?9?Extensions?Maps?Flights?2025?11?Gemini?Google Maps?App?11?ChatGPT?Buy it in chatgpt?Shopify?Esty?Stripe?ChatGPT?OpenAI?-?AI?Trend5?16?11?AI?6?200?AI?30?3D?AI?12?App?“?”?C?AI?MAU?ChatGPT?2025?11?Know-how?10?Google?AI?Hyerbolic Labs CTO Yuchen Jin?“Gemini App?6.5?Nano Banana”?Nano Banana?Pro?AI?AI?AI?“?BAT”?Trend5?17?Sam AltmanOpenAI首席执行官?Nano Banana Pro?70?120?0.14?0.002?Nano Banana Pro?1.5%?98.5%?“?”?AI?12?AI?“?”?App?MAU?1500?APP?QuestMobile?AI?MiniMax?AI?AI?/?产业应用滑向“幻灭低谷期”，2026H2迎来“V型”反转?AI?B?PoC?ToB?“Chat”?Agent?“?”?Trend6?2026?“?Trough of disilusionment?”?MIT?300?AI?95%?GenAI Pilot?“?”?Forrester?Gartner?ROI?25%?AI?2027?2027?40%?Agentic AI?MAS?Anthropic?46%?“?”?AI?“Chat”?ERP/CRM?MAS?“Agent?”?MAS?MAS?18?MAS?MAS?2025?10?Towards AI/Substack?We Spent$47,000 Running AI Agents in Production?4?LangChain?11?47000?MAS?ToB?MVP?Trend6?19?ToB?MVP?MVP ToB?6?2025?Enterprise AI?“?”?0?1?ToB?Use Case?2026H2?ToB?ROI?Trade-off?JSON?AI?JSON Schema?Agent?MAS?B?API?2024?1?CMS?CMS-0057-FF?API?HL7 FHIR?JSON?2026?1?2027?1?Agent?TM Forum Open APIs?PSD2/FDX&ISO 20022?IEC 61968/CIM?Trend6?20?黄仁勋Nvidia首席执行官?API?ROI?AI?API?Trend7Scaling Law?AI?Epoch AI?2022?2026?2030?AI?“?+?”?2026?“?”?Rectified Scal-ing Law?Dl?300B tokens?Nemotron-4 340B?98%?SOTA?2026?21?合成数据占比攀升，有望破除“2026年枯竭魔咒”?“?+?”?Frost&Sullivan?11.8?47.6?2030?200?ICCV-2025?DriveDreamer4D?DriveDreamer4D?5?0.5?OccWorld4D?Trend722?Jim FanNVIDIA具身智能工作组（GEAR）负责人?AI?Cosmos-Drive-Dreams?3D?Isaac GR00T-Dreams?Sandbox AQ?520?NVIDIA?10?GraspVLA?4.41?3D?5?3D?“?-?-?”?StereoCarla?“?+?”?AI 2.0?Trend8?23?推理优化远未触顶，“技术泡沫”是假命题?2025?2026?AI?Epoch AI?GPU?6?12?AI?2025 HAI?“?2022?11?token 20.00?2024?10?token 0.07?18?280?”?AI?-1,0,1?BitNet b1.58?DeepSeek V3.2?DSA?O(L)?O(L k)?Qwen3?GPU?ASIC?ASIC?Transformer?GPU?Google TPU?Groq?100%80%60%40%20%0%2023/07 2023/10 2024/01 2024/04 2024/07 2024/10 2025/01 2025/04 2025/07GPQA-Diamond 榜单准确率模型发布时间前沿模型运行于消费级GPU上的开源模型Top-1 模型其他模型Top-1 模型其他模型RTX 4090 Era(28B 模型)RTX 5090 Era(40B 模型)Trend8?24?Jonathan RossGroq 前首席执行官Trend925?85%?AI?NVIDIA+CUDA?AI?2025?DSL?5?9?AI?DSL?DSL?开源编译器生态汇聚众智，异构全栈底座引领算力普惠?MLIR?M?N?MN?CUDA?13.1?CUDA Tile?PyTorch?Trend926?黄仁勋Nvidia首席执行官?CUDA?Triton?OpenAI?AMD?Intel?Triton?Tile?OpenAI?Gluon?Meta?TLX?GPU?NVIDIA?CUDA?“?”?CUDA?FlagOS?FlagOS?AI?FlagGems?18?FlagScale?vLLM?FlagTree?FlagCX?Trend10?27?从幻觉到欺骗，AI安全迈向机制可解释与自演化攻防?AI Incident?2024?233?56.4%?2025?11?330?2024?Future of Life Institute?xAI?OpenAI?Anthropic?8?“?”?2012050100150200250201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024全球每年被报道的 AI（人工智能）事件与争议数量典型案例包括：一段乌克兰总统泽连斯基“投降”的深度伪造（Deepfake）视频，以及美国监狱使用AI监控囚犯通话。?Agent?“?”?AI?2025?AI Security?AI Safety?Trend10?AI?AI?“?”?Anthropic?3?Circuit Tracing?Circuit Tracer?10?Claude?SFT?OpenAI?Aardvark?GPT-5?Anthropic?Petri?AI?AI?AI?12?28?能力扩张欺骗性扩张?AI?Deloitte?Cisco?70%?2025?AI?“?”?“?-?-?”?gPass?AI?Anthropic?Safe AI Forum?AI?AI?“?”?AI?AI?Trend10?MAS?IIFAA?ASL?ASL?MCP?A2A?360?CoE?EB?2026?AI?29?Yoshua Bengio蒙特利尔大学教授、图灵奖得主?30?1?2?3?4?5?6?7?8?9?10?11?12?13?14?15?16?17?18?19?2031?21?22?23?24?25?26?27?28?29?30?31?32?33?34?35?36?37?38?39?4032?41?42?43?44?45?46?47?48?49?50?52?53?54?55?56?57?58?59?60?61?51?