2023年夏：欧洲经济展望.pdf

Economic and Financial AffairsSummer 2023ISSN 2443-8014(online)European Economic ForecastINSTITUTIONAL PAPER 255|SEPTEMBER 2023 EUROPEAN ECONOMYEuropean Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs European Economic Forecast Summer 2023(Interim)EUROPEAN ECONOMY Institutional Paper 255 CONTENTS iii Easing growth momentum amid declining inflation and robust labour market 1 1.EA and EU outlook 2 1.1.Setting the scene 2 1.2.The global economy:recent developments and outlook 2 1.3.Commodities 4 1.4.Financial markets 5 1.5.Recent economic developments in the EU 8 1.6.The outlook 13 1.7.Risks to the outlook 17 2.Prospects by Member States 18 2.1.Germany 18 2.2.Spain 18 2.3.France 19 2.4.Italy 20 2.5.The Netherlands 20 2.6.Poland 21 Previous European Economic Forecasts 25 LIST OF TABLES 1.Overview-the Summer 2023 interim Forecast 1 1.1.International environment 3 LIST OF GRAPHS 1.1.Growth in global GDP and global PMIs 2 1.2.Short-term euro area interest rate expectations at different dates 6 1.3.Composite Credit Cost Indicator and credit to the euro area private sector 6 1.4.10-year sovereign bond yields,international comparison 7 1.5.10-y sovereign bond yield spreads to German bond,selected euro area countries 7 1.6.Business registrations and bankruptcies,EU 8 1.7.Real GDP growth and its contributions,EU 9 1.8.GDP demand-side components,EU excluding IE 9 1.9.Short-term indicators,EU 9 1.10.ESI and PMI,euro area 10 1.11.Factors limiting production,euro area 10 1.12.New orders or incoming new business,euro area 10 1.13.Employment,unemployment and labour market slack,EU 11 1.14.Labour limiting production and vacancy rates,EU 11 1.15.Headline inflation and various alternative measures of core inflation,euro area 12 1.16.Measures of underlying price pressures,euro area 12 1.17.Annualised momentum of major HICP components,euro area 13 1.18.Inflation breakdown,EU 14 1.19.Inflation expectations derived from implied forward inflation-linked swap rates 14 iv LIST OF BOXES 1.1.Insights from the Commissions consumer survey:how inflation is shaping consumer confidence and spending.14 2.1.Some technical elements behind the forecast 23 EASING GROWTH MOMENTUM AMID DECLINING INFLATION AND ROBUST LABOUR MARKET Summer 2023(Interim)Forecast 1 The EU economy continues to show resilience in the face of the formidable shocks it has endured in recent years,but it has lost momentum.Economic activity in the EU was very subdued in the first half of 2023.Weakness in domestic demand,in particular consumption,shows that high,and still increasing consumer prices for most goods and services,are taking a heavy toll,more than expected in the Spring Forecast.This is despite declining energy prices and an exceptionally strong labour market,which has seen record low unemployment rates,continued expansion of employment and rising wages.Meanwhile,the sharp slowdown in the provision of bank credit to the economy shows that monetary policy tightening is working its way through the economy.Survey indicators point to slowing economic activity in the summer and months ahead,with continued weakness in industry and fading momentum in services,despite a strong tourism season in many parts of Europe.The weaker growth momentum in the EU is expected to extend to 2024,and the impact of tight monetary policy is set to continue restraining economic activity.As the outlook for global growth and trade remains broadly unchanged compared to spring,the EU economy cannot count on strong support from external demand.However,a mild rebound in growth is still projected next year,as inflation keeps easing,the labour market remains robust and real incomes gradually recover.Retail energy prices are set to continue declining for the remainder of 2023,but at a slowing pace.They are projected to increase slightly again in 2024,driven by higher oil prices.Inflation in services is set to continue moderating as demand softens,under the impact of monetary policy tightening and a fading post-COVID boost.The other non-energy components of the consumption basket will continue contributing to easing inflation over the forecast horizon,also reflecting lower input prices and normalising supply chains.Overall,this forecast revises growth down for the EU and the euro area in both 2023 and 2024.HICP inflation is expected to continue declining,broadly in line with the spring projections.Russias ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine and wider geopolitical tensions continue to pose risks and remain a source of uncertainty.Furthermore,monetary tightening may weigh on economic activity more heavily than expected,but could also lead to a faster decline in inflation that would accelerate the restoration of real incomes.By contrast,price pressures could turn out more persistent,prompting a stronger response of monetary policy.Mounting climate risks also weigh on the outlook.202220232024202220232024202220232024202220232024Euro area3.30.81.33.51.11.68.45.62.98.45.82.8European Union3.40.81.43.51.01.79.26.53.29.26.73.1Germany1.8-0.41.11.80.21.48.76.42.88.76.82.7Spain5.52.21.95.51.92.08.33.62.98.34.02.7France2.51.01.22.60.71.45.95.62.75.95.52.5Italy3.70.90.83.71.21.18.75.92.98.76.12.9Netherlands4.30.51.04.51.81.211.64.73.011.64.93.3Poland5.10.52.75.10.72.713.211.46.113.211.76.0Table 1:Overview-the Summer 2023 interim ForecastReal GDP growthInflationinterim ForecastForecastinterim ForecastForecastSummer 2023Spring 2023Summer 2023Spring 20231.EA AND EU OUTLOOK Summer 2023(Interim)Forecast 2 1.1.SETTING THE SCENE This Summer interim Forecast updates the GDP and inflation projections of the previous,full-fledged European Economic Spring 2023 Forecast,with focus on the economies of the six largest EU Member States,as well as the euro area and the EU aggregates.Country-specific projections for real GDP growth and HICP inflation in 2023 and 2024 are presented for Germany,Spain,France,Italy,the Netherlands and Poland.For the remaining 21 Member States,latest economic developments are factored into the calculation of the EU and euro area aggregates.Thanks to the later timing for its publication in September instead of July as per past practice,it factors in key data released over the summer,including information on real GDP growth in the third quarter and inflation in August.The factors shaping this forecast are not significantly different from those underpinning the Spring Forecast.The global economy fared somewhat better than anticipated in the first half of the year,despite the weak performance in China.However,the outlook for global growth and trade remains broadly unchanged compared to spring,implying that the EU economy cannot count on strong support from external demand.The tightening of monetary conditions is assumed to continue in line with markets expectations for short and long term rates,without producing any disorderly adjustment in financial markets.As for energy commodity prices,spot and futures prices for oil have moved up compared to the prices assumed in spring,but gas and average electricity prices are lower.Risks of energy supply shortages have receded,and it is still assumed that(limited,but adjusting)supply will match(restrained)demand throughout the forecast horizon.Last but not least,geopolitical tensions caused by Russias war of aggression against Ukraine have not eased and the working assumption underpinning this forecast is again that they will not be resolved within the forecast horizon.1.2.THE GLOBAL ECONOMY:RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK Global economic activity moderated in the second quarter of 2023.Global growth is estimated to have slowed to 0.5%q-o-q in the second quarter of 2023,after a strong(1%q-o-q)beginning of the year(see Graph 1.1).Growth in 2023-Q2 was driven mainly by robust activity in the US,where domestic demand continued to expand,and in other advanced economies.At the same time,growth in China slowed,as the initial reopening surge fizzled out.The US economy has held up better than expected since the start of the year.Output increased by 0.5%q-o-q in both 2023-Q1 and 2023-Q2 on the back of robust consumption growth and positive surprises in investment,possibly spurred by subsidies under the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act.With the unemployment rate at 3.8%in August,still near the trough of 3.4%,and continued employment growth,the labour market remains tight.However,the vacancy rate started to subside,and unemployment claims are creeping up.July monthly data point to a continued expansion of the economy in the third quarter,with industrial production up sharply(1%m-o-m)and retail sales also up(0.6%m-o-m).Stronger-than-expected growth in the first half of the year and sustained momentum into 2023-Q3 results in an upward revision of the projection for real GDP growth for 2023 as a whole,compared to the Spring Forecast.Some slowdown is still expected in 2024 in the face of gradually deteriorating consumer finances in a high interest rate environment.30354045505560657075-8-6-4-2024681019-Q120-Q121-Q122-Q123-Q1q-o-q%Graph 1.1:Growth in global GDP and global PMIsGDP contribution emerging marketsGDP contribution advanced economiesGlobal manufacturing PMI(rhs)Global services PMI(rhs)Sources:OECD,IMF and national sources for GDP,S&P Global for PMI.index 50=expansionSummer 2023(Interim)Forecast 3 The outlook for the other advanced economies for 2023 has brightened as well.Activity in the UK has held up better than previously expected,despite energy prices and inflation being high.Real GDP grew by 0.1%in 2023-Q1 and 0.2%in 2023-Q2,leading to an upward revision to the growth outlook for 2023 compared to the Spring Forecast(1).However,as monetary policy continues to tighten amid persistent inflationary pressures and the outlook for trade,investment and productivity remains weak,the growth projection for 2024 is now lower.In Japan,GDP growth was a robust 1.5%q-o-q in 2023-Q2,driven by rapid expansion of exports on receding supply bottlenecks and booming tourism.The outlook for 2023 is marked up compared to the spring on account of the strong outcome in the first half of the year,while for 2024 it has been slightly lowered as elevated inflation is expected to dent private demand.Chinas reopening rebound following its strict COVID-19 policies proved short-lived.Chinas GDP growth slowed considerably to 0.8%q-o-q in 2023-Q2,from 2.2%in the first quarter.Household spending remained subdued due to relatively poor labour market outcomes,especially for youth,and still high precautionary savings.Investment growth weakened,on the back of poor investor confidence and low private sector investment,especially in real estate.July data point to further softening in activity,adding to unfavourable developments(e.g.,consumer and producer price deflation,the rising default risk of a major property developer,and missed payments on high-yield investment products by a large private wealth manager).The economy is struggling with a confidence crisis,with both households and private enterprises focusing on saving or reducing debt.External demand is also weakening,leaving only the state-run sectors to drive growth.Without further more decisive policy support to boost demand in the second half of 2023,the outlook is revised downwards compared to the spring.The direct impact of the downward revision on the EU economy is likely to be marginal(2).Recent PMI readings point to moderation in global growth over the summer.Global composite manufacturing and services PMIs have fallen from their April readings(which were taken into account in the Spring Forecast).The global manufacturing PMI was at 48.7 in July(49.6 in April),while the services PMI was 52.7 in July(55.4 in April),with PMIs in emerging market economies higher than in the advanced economies.Overall,global growth is now projected slightly higher than in spring for 2023,but slightly lower for 2024.With higher-than-projected growth in the second quarter of 2023 in major advanced economies(e.g.US,Japan,UK),but softer momentum in China,on balance,real global GDP growth is forecast to reach 3.2%(+0.1 pps.)in 2023 and 3.2%(-0.1 pps.)in 2024.Global trade growth deteriorated during the summer amid weak demand.Global trade volumes momentum(latest three months on the three months before)declined to-0.3%in June,down from+0.7%in May.More recent data signal a marked deterioration of global trade during the summer,with the Kiel trade indicator falling by 1.6%m-o-m in July and 0.3%in August.In addition,new export orders in global PMIs declined further(47.8 in July vs.48.3 in June)and still point to a divergence between goods,registering a deeper downturn in export performance amidst weak global demand,and services.Growth in global trade is (1)Moreover,taking account of significant revisions to national accounts data for 2020 and 2021,the volume of UK GDP is now estimated to be 1.8%above pre-pandemic level,instead of being just below in previous estimates.(2)China is the destination of less than 2.5%of GDP worth of exports of goods and services by the EU or the euro area,whereas it is the origin of almost 4%of GDP worth of imports.(Annual percentage change)201920202021202220232024202220232024World(excl.EU)2.9-2.66.33.23.23.23.23.13.3World(excl.EU)exports of goods and services0.2-7.010.44.01.43.23.92.23.2World(excl.EU)imports of goods and services-0.6-8.311.34.81.53.44.81.43.0Table 1.1:International environmentTrade volumesSpring 2023ForecastReal GDP growthSummer 2023interim ForecastSummer 2023(Interim)Forecast 4 forecast to slow significantly(to 1.5%)in 2023,despite a better-than-previously-expected outlook for Chinese imports,driven by a higher import share in domestic demand and stockpiling of oil and raw materials.World trade is forecast to pick up moderately(+3.4%)in 2024,though growth is projected to remain much below long-term averages.This implies minor upward revisions for global imports relative to the Spring Forecast for both 2023 and 2024(see Table 1.1),which may be of limited relevance for EU exports.Supply chain pressures increased marginally but remain relatively low after steady improvement since late 2021.In July,the Federal Reserve Supply Chain Pressure Index rose to-0.9,(3)from-1.14 in June and a historical low of-1.56 in May.The suppliers delivery times index reported in global PMIs deteriorated slightly(51.9 in July vs.52.3 in June)but continues to indicate an improvement in delivery times.Container ship waiting time at major ports continued decreasing or remains at low levels,with the low water levels at the Panama Canal not having a noticeable impact on global maritime traffic.Shipping rates remain contained,albeit the start of the peak shipping season came with an incipient increase in rates since late July.Global headline inflation continued to decline in 2023,but core inflation remains high.Inflationary pressures moderated on lower commodity prices and softening global goods demand.Global(ex-US)headlin