2022年科技预测报告.pdf

DECEMBER 2021TRENDS&INNOVATIONS SHAPING THE GLOBAL TECH SECTOR Important disclosures appear at the end of this report.GP Bullhound Corporate Finance Ltd and GP Bullhound Asset Management Limited are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.GP Bullhound Inc is a member of FINRA.GP Bullhound Hong Kong Limited is authorised and regulated by the Securities&Futures Commission.2Contents04THE VIEW FROM GP BULLHOUND24EXPERT VIEWLiz Wessel,WayUp05TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 202206RECAP OF 2021 PREDICTIONS08SNAPSHOT OF WHATS SHAPING TECHFOR 202210PREDICTION 1Creating a new economy12PREDICTION 2The rise of decentralised finance(DeFi)14PREDICTION 3Technology supercharging supply chains16Peyman Zamani,LogicbrokerEXPERT VIEW18PREDICTION 4The next ARMs race20PREDICTION 5The new virtual playground22PREDICTION 6Technology driving diversity,equity and inclusion26PREDICTION 7Wearables strike back,powered by artificialintelligence28PREDICTION 8The global semiconductor shortage28PREDICTION 9Artificial intelligence automating healthcare atall levels30EXPERT VIEWJason Krantz,Definitive Healthcare32PREDICTION 10The future of paymentA LOOK BACK AT PASTPREDICTIONS3440METHODOLOGY41DISCLAIMER3The viewFROM GP BULLHOUNDAuthorsIn its 15th year,our Technology Predictions report analyses how the latest trends and the leading visionaries in theseecosystems are shaping our future.Our methodology in selecting the coming years predictions is shaped directly by ourexperience in working with the worlds leading entrepreneurs and cutting-edge technologies,balanced with unique marketinsight gathered across our global network.2021 has witnessed record-breaking growth in global technology M&A activity,driven by the need for companies to staycompetitive and innovative during the unprecedented times we are in,which is considerably changing consumer habits.Companies are also rethinking their supply chains due to shifting geopolitical relations,trade wars,and environmental concerns.Driven by critical component shortages,such as semiconductors,and internalisation of supply chains,the global supply chainlandscape looks unprecedented.While the momentum of the tech world shows no sign of slowing,it is of tremendousimportance to understand and navigate regulation wisely as it will continue to be the theme that factors how everything movesforward.Per RomanMANAGING PARTNERAlec DaffernerPARTNERJennifer EllerVICE PRESIDENT,INSIGHTSVICE PRESIDENTOkan InaltayGarrett VazVICE PRESIDENTGerry KelliherASSOCIATEMaria LazarevaANALYST,INSIGHTSDaniel RobertsANALYSTJoseph WilkANALYSTEren YagmurluANALYSTYinzheng LiuANALYSTTHE VIEW FROM GP BULLHOUND4At GP Bullhound we are proud to work with innovative,world-leading companies and their visionaries transforminginnovative ideas into reality.We hope our 2022 tech predictions help you to navigate the opportunities and challenges tocome.STATE OF THE MARKETCREATING A NEW ECONOMYTHE RISE OF DECENTRALISEDFINANCE(DEFI)Creators taking the baton from gigBroader institutional uptake to pave the way formainstream adoptionTHE NEW VIRTUAL PLAYGROUNDDeveloping the next generation of interactionWEARABLES STRIKE BACK,POWERED BYARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Wearables adoption extendedTHE NEXT ARMS RACEThe proliferation of connected devices is outpacingsupply chainsTHE GLOBALSEMICONDUCTOR SHORTAGEARM-based processors will power the artificial intelligence/machine learning revolutionTECHNOLOGY SUPERCHARGINGSUPPLY CHAINSTHE FUTURE OF PAYMENTSupply chain crises force businesses to look to technologyfor new efficienciesBuy Now,Pay Later(BNPL)is here to stayARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AUTOMATINGHEALTHCARE AT ALL LEVELSTECHNOLOGY DRIVING DIVERSITY,EQUITY AND INCLUSIONIndustry-leading solutions are leveraging artificial intelligenceSoftware changing workplace demographicsPREDICTION 1PREDICTION 2PREDICTION 3PREDICTION 4PREDICTION 6PREDICTION 5PREDICTION 7PREDICTION 8PREDICTION 9PREDICTION 10THE VIEW FROM GP BULLHOUND5Over the course of almost two decades,GP Bullhounds TechnologyPredictions report has established a reputation as an industry-leadinganalysis of the trends and innovations shaping the global technologysector.OUR 2022 PREDICTIONS2021 PREDICTIONSRecap of GP BullhoundEdtech continued its surge in 2021 as schools realisedthe benefits of the optionality that digital learningprovides to students and teachers.Large school districtssuch as Miami-Dade County in Florida signed high-profiledeals with well-known edtech platform PowerSchool.Large enterprises have even supported schools to adoptmore tech-based learning;US wireless network operator,Verizon,committed$3bn+to help schools increaseconnectivity and provide devices for students.Despiteconcerns about the Chinese governments restrictions onthe local edtech market,broadly speaking,digitallearning should continue surging given the formats clearbenefits.Healthcare shifted the most of all sectors in 2020 due tohealthtech,and continued its dramatic change in 2021,with increased buy-ins from health organisationsworldwide to reap the benefits of tech-enabledhealthcare.In the US,this was illustrated by ClevelandClinics partnership with IBM to enable high-performancecomputing,artificial intelligence,and quantum computingin healthcare.UK-based healthtech provider,BabylonHealth,also announced a collaboration with RwandasNational ID Agency(NIDA)to expand the reach of itsprimary care services in the country.Thesecollaborations are expected to continue in the comingyear.Online commerce continued to grow in 2021,up 9%fromQ2 2020 to Q2 2021.Buy Online,Pick-up In Store(BOPIS)also continued to grow due to more e-commercebut also changing consumer sentiment.A Shipstationsurvey indicated that 62%of respondents now expectretailers to offer curbside pick-up,and 71%expect BOPISto be permanently available.This shift in sentimentproves that the I want it now e-commerce mindset islikely going to be a permanent commerce fixture.(1)Largely driven by those aged 45-64,the number of hoursspent gaming per week in the US hit 16.5 in 2021,upfrom 12.7 in 2019 and 14.8 in 2020.In 2019,65%ofconsumers in this age group played for c.9 hours perweek;in 2020,69%played for c.12 hours;and in 2021,75%gamed for c.16 hours.A large share of thisgaming was on the Roblox and Fortnite platforms,whichhave built virtual worlds for individuals to connect,andFacebook is trying to replicate.The March Through TimeMartin Luther King Jr.event,built in Fortnite inpartnership with Time Magazine,gathered over 8.1 millionplayers.More interactions are now virtual.(2)(2)(3)EDUCATION IN THE21ST CENTURYTHE NEW PATIENT DOCTORRELATIONSHIPYESI WANT IT NOWE-COMMERCETHE NEXT SOCIAL NETWORKYESYESYES6RECAP OF 2021The ultimate winner of 2021 was the consumer.From online shopping,payments and fitness,to howcompanies fought to understand and retain us,technology kept companies alive and permanentlychanging our behaviour patterns.Heres a quick look at what we got right.Many US states have followed California,enacting wide-ranging digital privacy laws to protect consumers.Thisfurther stoked technology companies,such as Apple,toimprove the privacy functionality on their platforms.Inearly 2021,Apple introduced an important update to itsoperating system that streamlines how developers ofexternal apps,such as Facebook,track Apples users.Those users must explicitly agree to have their datacollected.Consumers still do not have full control,however,as other platforms,such as Google andFacebook,are not fully transparent on data practices,making the full privacy shift incomplete.Digital payments continued to surge in 2021,aided bychanging consumer sentiment.Nearly 47%of consumers saythey will not shop at a store that does not offer a contactlessway to pay.Digital payments also surged in 2021 due toan increased interest in Buy Now,Pay Later(BNPL).In 2020,BNPL accounted for 2.1%of all global e-commercetransactions.Led by extraordinary growth in Europe,this isexpected to double by 2024.Squares acquisition ofAfterpay has strengthened the argument that BNPL will be acritical component of the payment infrastructure,increasingthe volume of e-commerce globally.(4)(5)The focus of martech in 2021 was the customer.This wasdemonstrated by the rapid growth and fundraising ofplatforms focused on customer experience automation,such as ActiveCampaign and Iterable.These platformsexperienced tremendous growth due to an increasingneed for companies to automate their customerexperience and gain insights via artificial intelligence toretain and attract new customers.Large incumbents havealso realised the need for artificial intelligence in theircustomer experience processes,as shown by Zendesksacquisition of Cleverly.ai.At-home fitness continued to grow in 2021,with a bit of atwist from 2020.Whereas many of the companies thatsaw explosive growth were hardware-based in 2020,such as Peloton,Mirror and Tonal,2021 was the year ofmore comprehensive software offerings.Companies,such as FitOn,have developed platforms that address allareas of the body and are more affordable than largehardware purchases.This shift helped digital fitnesscontinue its momentum from 2020 as consumerspermanently look to digital mediums for fitness.The pressure on Apple continued in 2021 regarding itsdeveloper fees.Epics lawsuit against Apple is undergoingthe appeals process,but the initial judgement orderedApple to allow developers to provide alternative paymentrails for app users.This judgement,which is still pendingas Apple requested a stay on the injunction,had a knock-on effect as Google lowered its developer fee to 15%fornew developers from 30%for their first year of service.Asthe fight continues against large incumbents,themomentum seems to be in favour of the developers.Many companies have learned how to construct optimalenvironments for their teams in a post-Covid world.Somecompanies,such as Amazon,learned that theirorganisation can function with employees completelyremote,while others identified that their teams functionbetter in person,such as Bank of America.While 2021solidified the possibility of remote work,the future islikely to remain a hybrid of remote and in-person,asindividuals and companies work to understand how tostrike the right balance between employee satisfactionand maximum productivity.CONSUMERS TAKING CONTROLOF PRIVACYYES/NOSURVIVAL OF THEFITTESTCASH IS NO LONGER KINGTHE FUTURE OF WORKMARTECH ALL-IN ONCUSTOMER EXPERIENCEEPICS ULTIMATE BATTLEROYALEWITH APPLENote:1)Statista(4 September 2021);2)Makuch,E.(2021,7 October)Time And Money Spent On Games Gamespot.Retrieved from ;3)Park,G.(2021,28 September)Epic Games believesthe Internet is broken The Washington Post.Retrieved from ;4)Caminiti,S.(2021,17 August)Digital payments soared during the pandemic CNBC Technology Executive Council.Retrieved from ;and 5)The Global Payments Report 2021.Worldpay from FIS.Retrieved from YESYESYES/NOYESYES7RECAP OF 20218THE PREDICTIONS Buy Now,Pay Later to reach$995bn with 1.5 billion usersby 2026,and later a trillion-dollar market,as tech andfinance giants take residenceDecentralised finance tripled in 2021 to$90bn+in totalvalue locked,accelerating as it integrates with massiveuser-base sectors,like gamingHealthcare providers are looking to tech for bettercapabilities and tools,and accessibility to make data-driven decisions for their patientsWearables producers are using their proprietary data todevelop powerful artificial intelligence engines,drivingactionable insights for users on finance,health andsecurity The new creator economy is decoupling from platforms ascreators seek to own their work;influencers earn as muchas doctors,and non-fungible tokens are breaking recordsData is power,and companies are utilising software andartificial intelligence to achieve better diversity,equityand inclusion,as well as accountability in the workplaceRecruitment has historically been driven by employers,butthe job market is tilting in job seekers favour as theysearch for companies that share their values As more tech companies transition to the ARMplatform,new software will be cheaper and easier todevelop,and legacy software will be retrofittedSupply-chain software platforms have become a criticalelement for companies,and early adopters have thecompetitive edgeThe global semiconductor shortage continues with theproliferation of connected devices outpacing supplychains,and governments are stepping up to bolsterchip productionACCESSIBLE FINANCEAND HEALTHCARETHE EVOLUTIONOF INTERACTIONTHE CHANGING WORKPLACEMEETING EVER-GROWING DEMANDTech innovation is challenging traditional markets,productsand servicesWe are no longer limited by geographies,or even ourphysical presence,the metaverse is the next universe to More immersive experiences for live events,familygatherings and shopping with friendsWorking from the metaverse is on the horizon,with BigTech debuting their virtual workplaces,helping toachieve the hybrid office returnBusiness opportunities,especially in marketing andbranding,will create new industries;2022-2023 couldsee beta versions or final productsNon-fungible tokens in the form of clothing,art or otherobjects will resemble the next generation of designer/exclusive objectsPeople want to control when,where and how they workIncreased consumer demand is leading to innovation,butnot without its challenges2022Technology predictionsOur 2022 predictions focus on how software and artificial intelligence technology are dismantling some ofthe major traditional pillars of society,such as the workplace,how we bank and access healthcare,howwe socialise,as well as how we meet the supply and demand issues impacting the space.SNAPSHOT OF WHATS SHAPING TECH FOR 20229THE PREDICTIONS10PREDICTION 1CREATOR ECONOMY SURPASSING$100M IN EARNINGSINFLUENCER EARNING POWER AS OF 2021%of creatorsSources:GP Bullhound Insights,CB Insights,Influencer Marketing Hub;Note:1)Klein,M.(2020,23 Sept)50 Million Join The Creator Economy Thanks To Forbes.Retrieved from );2)Solsman,J.(2021,6 Oct)YouTube study:Creator economy supports CNet.Retrieved from ;3)Geyser,W.(2021,24 Sept)An In-Depth Look at Influencer Influencer Marketing Hub.Retrieved ;4)U.S.News(as of 1 November 2021);and 5)Crow,K.;Ostroff,C.(2021,11 March)Beeple NFT Fetches Record Breaking The Wall Street Journal.Retrieved .Creating a new economy11FLEXIBILITY IS KEYAnother key component of the rise of the creator economy will be the decoupling from platforms.This hasalready begun,with world-renowned artist,Beeple,selling a non-fungible token for$69m at Christies.Assome work will be less conducive to non-fungible tokens than artwork,the decoupling from platforms will notbe as evident near-term,but this trend is set to gain traction as creators begin to seek to own their work.(5)Influencers are now empowered to create content that aligns with the interests and values of their fans,whichgarners interest from brands.These clear benefits from the creator economy should lead to an increase in theamount of content produced on t