2022中国房地产年度展望.pdf

通时合变SPOTLIGHTSavills Research中国房地产年度展望- Macdonald中国区研究部主管(8621)6391 6688-朱兆荣中国区首席执行官(8621)6391 6688-负债高企的开发商融资状况对投资市场及房地产行业至关重要。投资者能获得多少融资、借款成本高低决定了他们选择在何时点收购何种物业。在过去十年，依赖于低成本的融资，中国房地产市场实现了爆发式的增长。2017年至2019年之间，上海大宗投资成交额连续三年达到人民币一千亿元左右。图1：社会融资总量然而依赖高负债实现增长带来的副作用也很明显，开发商负债率攀升令现金流风险与日俱增，一旦资产价值停顿，开发商资金面将面临很大的挑战。部分开发商的债务危机为行业敲响警钟。当外部环境困难时，对一个企业来说，风险控制有时甚至比收入增长更为重要。进入2022年，随着政府坚持降低房地产行业风险的长期目标不动摇，预计整体的融资环境难有大幅改善，开发商将会继续面临较高的债务偿还风险。慎之又慎的银行政府主要从三个角度实现对资金流入房地产市场的把控：利用“三道红线”等政策严控高负债率开发商继续融资；对购房者进行更为严格的背景调查；限制银行资金流入商业地产和住宅市场。同时，银行需要做到控制坏账和逾期风险，并为实现自身收益和支持经济平稳增长做出努力。为了控制风险，预计银行会对借款方进行更为严格的背景调查，一些大中型企业，资金状况较好，抵押物也集中在一线城市和核心二线城市，还款记录良好，将会受到银行的青睐。另外，对于物流等基本面较强的资产项目，银行放款态度也会更为宽松，然而给出的利率仍主要取决于具体资产品质、所在位置及借款人授信。目前政府选择性地对资金困难的国企提供支持，因此仅是国企已不能成为企业的“免死金牌”。投资者何去何从目前中国写字楼和零售等传统资产的收益率仍低于借款成本，这与其他一些发展中国家情况类似。对绝大多数投资者而言，投资中国传统资产仍是寄望于资产价值的不断增长。然而，纵观当下市场，融资成本增加，基本面回归常态化走势，资产价值很难再延续过去十年大幅增长的情景。在此背景下，预计投资者会继续把收益率较高的利基资产放入其投资组合中。物流资产一直是投资者青睐的利基资产类别。然而，随着物流资产竞争愈发激烈，收益率不断下行，包括数据中心、制造类产业园区、生命科学园区以及长租型住宅等资产类别将获得越来越多的关注。这些资产终端需求积极，政府也给予一定的支持政策，未来发展可期。REITs带来新希望融资困难之时，房地产行业中越来越多的人意识到了寻求可持续性长期融资的重要性。房地产投资信托基金（REITs）在全球很多市场中被验证为重要的长期投资形式，而中国在2021年年内推出房地产投资信托基金显得非常及时。首批9个REITs的股价表现十分瞩目，截至2021年12月1日，首批REITs平均股价增幅达18%（非加权）。随着第二批房地产投资信托基金的出炉，预计中国会不断尝试扩大底层资产类别，并推出一些形式的税收优惠来鼓励更多的投资者和开发商选择房地产投资信托基金。然而，债权融资也不可能完全被取代，其形式可能会发生一些变化。政府也将在融资各方面努力实现更高的透明度。与此同时，例如绿色债券等产品也会更为常见，不断促进市场的可持续发展及整合。来源：CEIC、第一太平戴维斯研究部0%4%8%12%16%20%24%01234562017/3/12017/6/12017/9/12017/12/12018/3/12018/6/12018/9/12018/12/12019/3/12019/6/12019/9/12019/12/12020/3/12020/6/12020/9/12020/12/12021/3/12021/6/12021/9/ 和金融科 技。商务 部数 据显示，2021年1-9月，我国高技术产业实际利用外资金额同比增长29.1%。一些知名投资公司例如淡马锡正积极布局数字化趋势所孕育的投资机会。政府对数字基建的持续投资亦是科技行业欣欣向荣的重要驱动力。北京、天津、上海、四川、重庆、广东等20多个省市发布了包括加大5G基站等数字基建投资或相关措施的计划。而为支持科技初创企业及中小企业发展，政府还提供激励举措，如税费减免、对于发展初期阶段企业放宽监管、奖励新专利以鼓励创新等。50%2025年数字市场对国内经济贡献预期互联网效应、投资增长和支持举措共同助力科技行业繁荣 增长率达到了15.0%。近年来不乏积极扩张的冷链物流开发商在贴近消费终端的重点城市攻城略地，行业投融资及整合频发，预计2025年市场规模将达4,660亿元。冷链仓储领域的投资和并购活动也有所增加，投资者日益关注物流市场更为细分的领域，同时开发商也希望将资产货币化，以便在新的机会窗口关闭之前灵活部署。从租赁需求增长迅猛的几大行业来看，无论是电商、新零售，还是医药、冷链等对科技应用的依赖都有增无减。京东在中国各地积极落子的亚一仓库以及众多租户企业自发升级智慧物流应用无不体现着科技赋能给物流地产带来的正面效应。但值得注意的是，科技物流对于已有项目改造而言投资仍然十分巨大。尤其对现有非高标仓来说，往往具有位置不集中且规模较小的特征，业主对于科技物流应用的落地接受程度有待提升；另一方面在运营端有教育用户的成本，而缺乏运营经验或使得业主难以利用科技支付成本及获取利润。长远来看，随着中国适龄劳动人口数量下降及工业物流用地地价上涨，智慧物流升级的趋势非常必要，新技术在物流仓储及运输管理过程中的应用将有助于行业在降本、增效、提速等方面不断深化发展。物流智能信息化亦将在整个行业加速发展的过程中起到助推作用。科技应用落地图 3：智慧物流市场规模市场规模同比增速来源：中商情报，第一太平戴维斯研究部1E 科技应用与可持续理念物流智慧物流在“双碳”环境下将提升全环节的节能减排能力，更好的服务消费者早在2018年，普洛斯与博枫便各出资50%成立合资公司，承诺在接下来三年时间内在普洛斯位于中国的物流及工业基础设施的屋顶上开发并运营300兆瓦的光伏发电项目，未来更将推广至1吉瓦，相当于75万家庭的年用电量。“双碳”背景下，物流企业在绿色可持续发展道路上可践行的途径十分多样，例如循环快递箱、商品包装减量化，以及仓库物联网节能检测应用等。在ESG报告的指引下，业主及租户开始愈发重视自身环境及社会责任方面的义务。为应对未来可能趋严的排放要求以及吸引优质租户，物流仓储业主或在未来加强对于各范畴碳排放的监控。此外通过提升入驻率及租金、降低运营成本及对电网的依赖亦可对减排做出贡献。而针对物流租户，尤其是第三方物流企业而言，通过践行可持续发展路径，不仅为企业营造了良好的外部环境，亦有效降低了运营成本。企业的绿色减碳行动不仅仅是对政府政策的回应，亦是出于对于环境、社会和企业管治的重视。随着传统地产行业红利逐渐式微，由制造、电商、第三方物流及零售等带动的物流地产在近年来备受追捧。多元化发展为目标的开发商，甚至是物联网企业将脚步迈向了物流业。凯德中国信托即在2021年首次收购了位于上海、昆山、武汉和成都的四个优质物流资产；而字节跳动随着电商业务的不断扩张，亦布局投资了涉及仓储服务、跨境电商基础设施服务以及物流机器人等多家物流行业企业。在物流开发企业逐步聚集在头部的当下，入局物流业的机会或将更多的通过收购成熟物业资产包或入股物流企业达成。绿色可持续发展多元企业入局关键趋势11物流回顾本轮全国房地产市场调控始自2019年，虽然各城市表现不一，但短期的限购、限售、限贷等政策不断趋严。而从国家政策层面来看，大方向仍为市场健康有序发展，政府对于政策把控整体而言“有保有压”。调控政策方向主要取决于各地区经济发展、人口、产业等基本面因素，调控政策调转方向灵活。2021年前11个月，中国住宅销售成交面积达到14亿平方米，与去年同期基本持平。但在银行涉房类贷款受限及买家观望情绪的双重作用下，2021年下半年，全国住宅市场成交面积同比下降35%。展望在2021年末，住宅市场调控政策底逐渐显现，政策迎来调整预期，整体不会再度收紧。在“两集中”的供地模式下，受到土地拍卖规则调整、企业资金压力增大等因素影响，全国重点城市第二批土地流拍率达到30%。针对第三批土地出让，多个地方政府不同程度调降了竞拍门槛。例如，杭州第三批挂牌土地中多宗为前两批流拍地块，挂牌价格相较之前有了明显下调。而在信贷层面，市场普遍预期小幅改善。针对房地产企业及个人抵押贷款的“两集中”政策在2021年底都有小幅放量。然而，一方面政策的传导落地需要一定时间，另一方面市场观望态度普遍，政策小幅调整的作用预期将在2022年逐步现显。预计目前部分开发商融资趋紧的局面将有所缓解，企业资金流动性向好，而整体房地产政策环境仍将趋紧。新政针对进入转型期的房地产市场，政策和税制将不得不进行调整以适应这些变化。许多行业，不仅是房地产行业，都在出台新的法规，以鼓励更健康的商业实践及发展。房地产税的引入可以为地方政府创造另一种收入来源，以帮助减少对土地财6%33家头部开发商预期完成年度销售指标的比例图4:70个大中城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比变动情况来源：CEIC、第一太平戴维斯研究部0102030405060702018年1月2018年3月2018年5月2018年7月2018年9月2018年11月2019年1月2019年3月2019年5月2019年7月2019年9月2019年11月2020年1月2020年3月2020年5月2020年7月2020年9月2020年11月2021年1月2021年3月2021年5月2021年7月2021年9月2021年11月-0.9%-0.9%X-0.6%-0.6%X-0.3%-0.3%X 0.0%0.0%0.0%X 0.3%0.3%X 0.6%0.6%X 0.9%0.9%1.2% ResearchChina Real Estate Market -2022Balancing A was a challenging year for the public and the economy,2021 has been a challenging year for the property market,what will 2022 hold?The first half is likely to prove challenging as debt repayment events continue to arise and credit markets are likely to remain tight despite some loosening at the edges in the last months of 2021.Nevertheless,as authorities provide greater clarity as to how credit default and bankruptcy events are likely to be dealt with and as the government makes effort to ensure creditworthy developers can access credit markets,a better common understanding will be reached and with that a base from which to grow from.Residential sales markets will see performance vary significantly by market.Lower tier-cities,dominated by first-hand sales and driven by price growth expectations,are likely to struggle in 2022 and will have to be supported by policy measures.The more mature higher-tier cities on the other hand will likely see lower volumes by stable pricing as a strong end user base provides support and some particularly restrictive policies are relaxed.The multifamily market on the other hand will be buoyed by continued growth in demand as potential home buyers remain on the side-lines of the sales market,and as institutional capital continues to seep into the market,improving the range and quality of offerings.The commercial markets remain up in the air.2021 has been a fabulous year for the office market with a strong economic rebound boosting occupier demand,nevertheless,financial pressures and regulatory risks along with other economic headwinds continue to weigh on 2022s outlook.The retail market has also seen a strong rebound in 2021 led by luxury sales and“Guochao”brands,though concerns of real estate values(a proxy for net wealth),weaker economic prospects,and sporadic covid lockdowns continue to hinder consumer markets.The industrial markets are expected to remain the bright spot with new capital sources(developer,REIT,funds,etc.)pouring capital into greenfield developments,conversions and stabilized assets,developing a new pipeline of assets,and pushing up prices.Meanwhile,government support measures,domestic R&D,centres of excellence,tax subsidies,as well as structural fundamentals continue to drive new demand from tenants in the logistics(dry,chiller,and refrigerated),IDCs,and life science sectors.Investment markets could have a bumper year next year when it comes to transaction volumes as there may be more asset and portfolio fire sales,bailouts and M&A activity,or state-led asset restructuring,as well as the processing of banks NPLs that are collateralised against real estate.There will also still be the opportunity to reposition assets into higher and better use cases.Repositioning/renovation of existing assets also has the potential to improve project sustainability while also reducing urban sprawl leaving more space to the public and greenery,something a lot of cities are promoting with a focus on city liveability,sponge cities,air quality,and other factors.James MacdonaldHead of Research,China(8621)6391 6688 Ext Siu Wing ChuChief Executive Officer,China(8621)6391 6688 Ext Debt and DevelopersThe availability and cost of financing is an incredible factor in the investment market and general health of the real estate market,determining what assets are acquired and when.In the past decade,Chinas real estate market has witnessed explosive growth which relied largely upon the comparatively cheap financing that domestic developers and investors had access to.Shanghais en-bloc transaction volumes peaked at around RMB100 billion per annum between 2017 and 2019.Largely unfettered access to debt and rapid expansion has straddled many Figure 1:Aggregate increased financingdevelopers with seemingly insurmountable debt piles that rely on the assumption that the capital value of the real estate will keep growing,as well as fragile cashflow positions that rely on the assumption that developers will be able to roll over debt and continue to sell properties.The current real estate debt crunch highlights the importance of more sustainable growth and managing debt risks especially when the overall economy looks set to slow.As the governments long-term objectives to reduce systemic financial risks remain unchanged,the credit markets are expected to remain tight in 2022 while refinancing and default risks will remain high for certain developers.FinancingThe governments approach to debt in the real estate market has been three pronged:tightening developer financing with policy measures such as the“Three Red Lines”,more stringent background checks on potential home buyers,and caps on banks exposure to the real estate and mortgage markets.Banks have it particularly difficult as they try to work a balance between managing bad loans and default risks,turning a profit and supporting government efforts to shore up economic growth and improve market stability.Banks are therefore carrying out greater due diligence on borrowers,favouring mid-to large-sized,financially sound businesses with good credit.If the collateral for the loans is in leading cities and favoured asset classes like logistics,then all the better.While SOE developers are still favoured,they are no longer seen as being immune to potential default risks.Investment ClassesChinas commercial asset classes continue to run at a negative spread against borrowing costs,similar to developing countries at an earlier point in their growth phases,therefore,investment returns are still predominantly driven by the expectation of capital growth.Nevertheless,ample supply and potentially diminishing demand are unlikely to support the levels of rental growth required to justify the higher valuations.At the same time,access to and the cost of debt is unlikely to be comparable to previous years.As a consequence,many investors are seeking out higher yields assets from the niche markets which still have scope for further yield compression.Logistics has been the most highly sought-after sector for years,however,as competition intensifies and yields fall,other sectors are starting to get more attention,whether that be data centres,business/industrial parks,life science real estate,or for-leasing apartments.These sectors are also expected to benefit from structural demand drivers,support from the government,rising consumption level,and changing behaviours.REITsWhile financing may be eased at the fringes,there is unlikely to be a full reversal of policy direction and as such,investors and developers will have to look for a more sustainable and long-term financing channel.The launch of REITs,which is an important source of long-term investment capital in many markets around the world,therefore,seems to be very timely.The first batch of China Infrastructure REITs launched on Jun 21 have performed very well with an average unweighted price increase of around 18%by 1 December 2021.The potential scope of underlying assets is also expected to be expanded for coming issuances while preferential tax treatments should encourage more developers and investors to use REIT structures.While new equity sources may be able to offset some of the debt in the market,it is not possible to replace all financing with equity.For the remaining debt,the government continues to push for greater transparency in who has issued debt,who it is owned by,and how it is issued.At the same time,products such as green bonds are likely to become more common,promoting more sustainable development practices.0%4%8%12%16%20%24%01234562017/3/12017/6/12017/9/12017/12/12018/3/12018/6/12018/9/12018/12/12019/3/12019/6/12019/9/12019/12/12020/3/12020/6/12020/9/12020/12/12021/3/12021/6/12021/9/1RMB trnChina aggregate financing(new)(LHS)YoY(RHS)Source CEIC,Savills R will continue to put relatively high-yielding niche assets into their investment portfolios18%of the first batch of REITs non-weighted share price growthSurviving a tightening credit marketInvestmentKey trendsInternational investors have not been particularly active in the Chinese real estate market compared to previous years,this is partly due to travel restrictions in response to COVID-19 which has made it difficult for overseas investors to carry out site inspections,participate in face-to-face negotiations,and make deals happen.At the same time,market fundamentals have softened while there has been no corresponding change in pricing unlike many other international markets.Nevertheless,as financing remains challenging in China,domestic funds could scale back their investments,thus presenting international investors with more investment opportunities.As developers look to restructure asset holdings to reduce gearing and shore up short term cash,discounted assets may become available as they have in the final months of 2021.While international investors have a lot of dry powder ready to deploy and are underweight on China given limited exposure in recent years,they are still likely to remain cautious when acquiring assets given continuing disruptions caused by zero covid policies,recent regulatory crackdowns of key industries,and slower economic growth resulting from the slowdown of the real estate industry.Asset owners and managers have to spend more time and effort maintaining and improving the asset quality and operations if they want to achieve higher rents and attract tenants in what is becoming an increasingly competitive market.Improved efficiency could also boost margins and sustainability standards.ESG is the hot topic at the moment though it is not fully understood by many.While all real estate practitioners must club together to affect meaningful change,it is really the asset managers that can truly have the biggest impact.ESG can take many forms,from staff training,and procedural changes,to the adoption of new technologies,and the upgrading of outdated facilities.No matter what,ESG has decidedly shifted from a“nice to have”to a“must-have”,with asset values and asset managers being benchmarked against these new metrics.As developers continue to grow and accumulate more recurrent income-generating assets,more might conclude that it might be better to spin off the asset management component of the business,given the different nature of income streams and risk profiles,especially if firms continue to trade at such significant discounts to net asset values(NAVs).For example,CapitaLand recently announced plans to split its business into real estate investment management business,which will be listed as a new entity,and its property development business,which will be taken private.By doing so,CLIM can sharpen its focus and transition to an asset-light and capital-efficient business and deliver better results to the investors.International investments returnAsset management becomes the key5InvestmentDigital driving dem