全球EV市场手册.pdf

Electrifying the Future:A Comprehensive Handbook on the EV Market 2 A Comprehensive Handbook on the EV Market Statzon-2023 Table of Contents E-MOBILITY:ELECTRIFYING THE WAY WE MOVE.4 BASIC BREAKDOWN OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES.4 HOW MUCH CLEANER IS E-MOBILITY COMPARED TO CONVENTIONAL TRANSPORT MODE?.5 BARRIERS TO EVS ADOPTION.6 BATTERIES AND CHARGERS:IMPORTANT COMPONENTS OF E-MOBILITY.8 THE MOVE TOWARDS MOBILITY AS A SERVICE(MAAS).8 AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES.9 GLOBAL E-MOBILITY MARKET.11 BATTERY AND VOLTAGE SEGMENTATION.12 ASIA IS LEADING THE E-MOBILITY MARKET.12 GLOBAL ELECTRIC BUS MARKET.14 CHINA DOMINATES THE GLOBAL ELECTRIC BUS MARKET.15 ELECTRIC BUS MARKET SEGMENTATION.16 GLOBAL ELECTRIC SCOOTER MARKET.18 ASIA PACIFIC LEADS THE GLOBAL MARKET,BUT EUROPE SHOWS THE STRONGEST GROWTH POTENTIAL.19 SEALED LEAD ACID IS STILL THE MOST PREFERRED OPTION FOR BATTERIES.20 GLOBAL BATTERY MARKET.21 THE MARKET FOR PRIMARY AND SECONDARY BATTERIES.22 LITHIUM-ION AND LEAD-ACID BATTERIES ARE THE MOST POPULAR.22 A CLOSER LOOK AT THE LITHIUM-ION BATTERY MARKET.23 LITHIUM-ION BATTERY USAGE IN E-MOBILITY.24 LITHIUM-ION BATTERY SEGMENTATIONS.25 KEY PLAYERS IN THE GLOBAL BATTERY MARKET.27 GLOBAL AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE MARKET.28 AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE MARKET SEGMENTATIONS.29 By level of autonomous driving.29 By type of mobility.29 By propulsion type.29 US AND CHINA RACING TO TOP POSITION.31 E-MOBILITY EUROPE:AN OVERVIEW OF EUROPES LATEST ELECTRIC VEHICLES DATA.32 EUROPE EV SALES 2021.33 PUBLIC CHARGING STATIONS AVAILABILITY.34 WHICH COUNTRIES IN EUROPE HAVE THE MOST ELECTRIC CARS?.35 ELECTRIC BUS MARKET SHARE IN EUROPE.36 EUROPES CO2 EMISSIONS FROM NEW PASSENGER CARS.37 ABOUT STATZON.38 3 A Comprehensive Handbook on the EV Market Statzon-2023 Author Rika Melissa,Data Journalist,E-mobility Rika came to Statzon with a background in market research,both in qualitative and quantitative studies.She has a strong interest in data collection and analysis and how to communicate those data in a simple yet interesting fashion.This book explores the electric mobility revolution and its anticipated effects on the cities in which we reside and plan for.The rise of e-mobility is very much related to the rising awareness of environmental problems.The transport sector accounted for 37%of the total global CO2 emissions.The International Energy Agency(IEA)recorded emissions as big as 7.7 Gt CO2 was produced by the transport sector in 2021.Around 77%of that number came from the road transport category in which passenger cars produced more emissions compared to any other mode of road transport.It is clear that e-mobility and sustainability are closely linked:the more e-mobility solutions we adopt,the larger the decrease in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions.Transition to e-mobility and renewable energy generation holds the key to a cleaner,healthier future.Some important points that will be covered in this book are:Global e-mobility market Global electric bus market Global electric scooter market Global autonomous vehicle market Global battery market Europe EV market 4 A Comprehensive Handbook on the EV Market Statzon-2023 E-mobility:Electrifying the Way We Move How do we define e-mobility?Gartner defines electro mobility,or e-mobility for short,as the use of electric powertrain technologies,IT technologies,and connected infrastructures to move a vehicle.Powertrain technologies include fully electric vehicles,plug-in hybrids,as well as hydrogen fuel cell vehicles that convert hydrogen into electricity.The image of an electric vehicle,or EV,probably comes to mind when we talk about e-mobility.The rise of electric vehicles has been talked about in recent years.Euromonitor reported the registration of EVs has grown more than triple between the years 2017 to 2021 from 3.7 million units to 11.8 million units.It is clearly a fast-growing market.However,it is important to remember that e-mobility is much more than just passenger cars.The development of e-mobility should also be accompanied by the development of transportation in all forms:e-buses,car sharing,e-scooters,e-bikes,bike paths,pedestrian areas,and others because reworking the mobility network means revolutionizing the culture that influences how people choose their mode of transportation.Basic breakdown of electric vehicles Electric vehicles come in different types.Some electric vehicles can rely on fuel cells or gasoline generators to provide electricity instead of powerful battery banks.The unifying factor is that every electric vehicle includes an electric motor to drive the vehicle,either alone or in combination with a gasoline-reliant internal combustion engine(ICE).One very basic of EVs breakdown is the following:EV/BEV:Electric vehicles/Battery Electric vehicles.These are pure electric vehicles relying on a rechargeable battery as the power source to run the vehicle.They can be charged at a power station either at home or at a charging station.HEV:Hybrid electric vehicles that use both electric power and the traditional internal combustion engine(ICE)that runs on gas.The electric batteries are charged autonomously through energy from the gas engine.It also uses regenerative braking,meaning the vehicle captures energy every time driver hits the brake and saves it for later use.PHEV:Plug-in hybrid vehicles are a variety of hybrid electrics that can be plugged in to charge with a larger battery than normal hybrids(HEVs).The vehicle can be charged at home or at public stations just like an EV.For some people,this is a nice compromise as it gives you a taste of EV with the security of a gas tank when doing long trips.5 A Comprehensive Handbook on the EV Market Statzon-2023 FCEV:Fuel cell electric vehicles that run on compressed hydrogen that is combined with oxygen inside a fuel cell stack to generate electricity.No electric batteries are used in this type of vehicle How much cleaner is e-mobility compared to conventional transport mode?When vehicles are running on electricity,they produce zero tailpipe emissions,but emissions may be produced by the source of electrical power such as a power plant.In areas that use relatively clean sources for electricity then the electric vehicles will have lower well-to-wheel emissions in comparison to conventional vehicles running on gasoline or diesel.In regions heavily dependent on coal for electricity,the well-to-wheel emissions will increase even when the vehicle is running fully on electricity.Transport&Environment Organization found out that in the worst-case scenario,an electric car with a battery produced in China and driven in Poland still emits 37%less CO2 than cars running on gasoline.And in the best-case scenario,an electric car with a battery produced in Sweden and driven in Sweden,the emission is 83%less.6 A Comprehensive Handbook on the EV Market Statzon-2023 Another study by International Council and Clean Transportation(ICCT)was looking at the amount of greenhouse gas emissions created by EVs in different countries.Fully electric vehicles by far produced the lowest emissions compared to other cars with different types of powertrains.Medium-size EVs greenhouse emissions are lower than comparable gasoline cars by 66%69%in Europe,60%68%in the United States,37%45%in China,and 19%34%in India.Barriers to EVs adoption 7 A Comprehensive Handbook on the EV Market Statzon-2023 As of today,electric cars are not yet riding the mainstream wave.A study by Appinio shows that only one out of ten drivers in the US drives a fully electric or plug-in hybrid.In fact,most non-owners have never even sat inside an electric car although the desire to try it out is great.Range anxiety remains a barrier to the widespread adoption of EVs.Battery capacities of current EVs range from 17.6 kWh in the Smart EQ,which translates to a maximum of 58 miles drive,to 100 kWh in the Tesla Model S which offers a maximum range of 351 miles.More recently,Lucid Air became the worlds longest-range EV offering 520 miles of driving range.When it comes to the act of purchase,nothing is as important as the price.Electric vehicles are perceived as expensive,especially when people keep associating EVs with Tesla which positions itself as a luxury brand.EVs have a higher up-front cost than gasoline cars but are less expensive over the course of their lifetime,mainly because electricity is relatively affordable.The average price of an EV in the US in 2022 is about USD 66,000.By comparison,mid-sized cars are about USD 32,000 and full-sized cars are USD 44,000.EV sticker price is more aligned with the price of a luxury car than mainstream.Despite many forecasts saying the price of EVs will go down over the years,the pandemic actually increased the price of EVs even more due to shortages of batteries,lithium,and components like semiconductors.Demand for EVs is still strong,however,especially from affluent buyers,making manufacturers more inclined to produce luxury EVs.Charging issues is another barrier to EV adoption.The issues include problems such as charging speeds,charger inaccessibility,cost of chargers,and charging variance by vehicles.Charging points are relatively easy to find in urban settings.They are available on popular roadways,motorways,and service areas.The same cannot be said when a driver finds themselves in rural area.Locating a charging station in such area can be cumbersome and once user finds a station,they may face another problem with charger type or connector fit.Current OEMs often create a charging system exclusive only to specific EVs which can be confusing and intimidating for potential EV consumers.8 A Comprehensive Handbook on the EV Market Statzon-2023 Batteries and chargers:important components of e-mobility As electric vehicles gain popularity so does every other infrastructure and support solution that enables the vehicle to function.Battery,for instance,is a fundamental part of e-mobility.The cost of the battery accounts for 35%-45%of the EVs sticker price.Markets and Markets forecasted the market size for EV batteries will grow tremendously from USD 27.2 billion in 2021 to USD 84.2 in 2026.Todays key focus for OEMs is achieving the optimum battery life,reduced cost,faster charging,and bigger power.Charging stations are an important infrastructure for e-mobility.Its availability can actually influence customers purchase decisions.Although the number of stations has spurted over the years,they are not equally dispersed.Taking Europe as an example,70%of all charging stations in the region are located in The Netherlands,Germany,and France.This is an opportunity for the market to keep growing.We can expect the market for EVs charging stations to grow from USD 7.9 billion in 2022 to USD 32.2 billion in 2032,based on data provided by Apollo Research Reports data.Charging cables,another essential component for electric cars,are used to connect the cars charger to the charging station be it at home or in public.They come in several types that can determine the time you need to charge your vehicle.EV charging cable market size reached USD 400 million in 2021,according to Markets and Markets.This number is expected to rise to USD 2.2 billion by 2026.The move towards Mobility as a Service(MaaS)New economic models have begun to consider sharing concepts as a way to gain profit.In a sharing economy,assets that are currently not being used such as parked cars and extra bedrooms can be rented out.With the growing success of rented items and services,new transportation options have come to the market.The idea of MaaS is to replace the need to own a vehicle by integrating various forms of transport services into a single mobility service accessible on an as-needed basis.A MaaS operator facilitates a diverse mode of transport,be they public transport,car sharing,bike rental,or a combination thereof.For the user,MaaS provides a single application to access mobility with a single payment channel instead of multiple ticketing and payment operations.Next Move Strategy Consulting estimated the market value of Maas which they divided into four different segments of product types:car rental,car-sharing,ride-hailing,and two-wheeler sharing.It is expected that the total market for MaaS will expand almost 20 times within the forecast period of 2021-2030,from USD 3.3 billion to USD 65.8 billion,registering a 39.5%CAGR.9 A Comprehensive Handbook on the EV Market Statzon-2023 Autonomous Vehicles Gartner defines an Autonomous Vehicle(AV)as one that can drive itself from a starting point to a predetermined destination in“autopilot”mode using various in-vehicle technologies and sensors,including adaptive cruise control,active steering(steer by wire),anti-lock braking systems(brake by wire),GPS navigation technology,lasers,and radar.The transition to an autopilot,self-driving car will not occur so suddenly.As of today,most autonomous cars on the road fall into“semi-autonomous”category with only limited amount of“fully autonomous”vehicles still in testing phase.The Society of Automotive Engineers(SAE)defines 6 levels of driving automation ranging from 0(fully manual)to 5(fully autonomous).Most cars produced in recent years have the option of Level 1 automation with a few reaching Level 2.Some companies have already announced their production of Level 3 personal autonomous cars,but these will only hit the market a few years from now.Level 4 and Level 5 developments are designed mostly for ride-sharing or public transport uses in mind.The topics of EVs and Autonomous Vehicles(AVs)are inevitably intertwined.The shift to electric powered vehicles happens almost simultaneously with the development of progressively automated cars.Both concepts aim at a more sustainable means of transport and are being implemented greatly in the shared-mobility scheme.The trend of automation,electrification,and ridesharing are reinforcing one another and are integral parts of mobility of the future.10 A Comprehensive Handbook on the EV Market Statzon-2023 Sources:Statzon,ADB,BloombergNEF,AFDC,Lifewire,Transport&Environment,IEA,Appinio,Exro,Digital Trends,US DOE,iDate report on Future of Mobility,Virta,Interact Analysis,McKinsey,IEA,Worldbank blog,Gartner,SAE,IEA Level Driver Involvement Features Level 0 No automation.Driver performs all driving tasks.Warning or temporary assistance features such as emergency braking,blind spot warning,lane changing warning.Level 1 Driver Assistance.Driver controls vehicle with some driving assist features included in the vehicle design.Lane steering OR adaptive cruise control.Level 2 Partial Automation.Driver remains engaged with driving tasks but enjoys vehicles combined automatic functions Lane steering AND adaptive cruise control that can be utilized at the same time.Level 3 Conditional Automation.Driver does not have to drive but needs to monitor the environment all the time and take control of the car shortly after being alerted.Traffic jam chauffeur function.Level 4 High Automation.Driver may have th