2023年中国物流地产（中英）.pdf

2快递运输量城市0%10%20%30%40%50%60%30.72%21.56%23.13%36.80%7.50%4.74%6.77%5.04%6.54%5.91%6.17%5.33%5.10%4.90%4.95%7.15%3.64%0.94%2.86%4.41%2.63%3.23%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%202220172023312645March Logistics21China Macro032Regional reviews083Investment market164Outlook20China Logistics3China MacroChina LogisticsLogistics values reach new heightsSource:CFLP,Savills ResearchChinas logistics value grew 3.4%in 2022 to RMB347.6 trillion,while the total revenue of the logistics industry reached RMB 12.7 trillion,up 4.7%YoY.Railway transport,cold chain facilities,and express delivery maintained higher growth rates.The national railway network transported 3.9 billion tons of goods,up 4.7%YoY,the highest in nearly three years.Cold-chain logistics market size is expected to exceed RMB 450-490 billion in 2022.Express delivery volumes totalled 110.6 billion parcels,a net increase of 2.3 billion over the previous year.International logistics continue to unlock new routes and expand existing channels with 16,000 China-Europe freight trains operated and 1.6 million TEUs shipped in 2022,up 9%and 10%YoY respectively.Meanwhile,the New Land-Sea Corridor in western China maintained strong growth momentum,with 756,000 TEUs shipped in 2022,up 18.5%YoY.Chinas expanding national logistics network fuels demand for logistics real estate4China Logistics Value by product category20022024026028030032034036020152016201720182019202020212022RMB trnAgricultural ProductIndustrial ProductImported GoodRenewable ResourceConsumer GoodChina LogisticsFDI increases despite headwindsSource:Ministry of Commerce,Savills ResearchFDI drives industrial&logistics demand5Utilized foreign direct investment(FDI)totalled US$189.1 bn(RMB1.23 trn).Despite the continuous business disruption and lockdowns throughout the year,investment grew 8%YoY and 6.8%5YR CAGR.The Yangtze River Delta region is still the most attractive region for foreign capital.Key sectors of growth have been high-tech manufacturing which grew by 28.3%YoY,and the automobile(including EVs)sector which recorded an increase of 264%,driving the demand for high-standard factory and warehouse space.China remains a critical component of the global supply chain.Covid policies,trade tensions,rising costs and other considerations have encouraged international firms to consider augmenting or replacing part or all of their supply chain to markets such as Vietnam and India.Additionally,targeted export restrictions in sectors such as semiconductors will force companies to look for domestic substitutes.While these may not be on par with international peers,increased sales revenues will allow domestic manufacturers to invest more in R&D and begin narrowing the technological divide.10011012013014015016017018019020020152016201720182019202020212022USD bnUtilized Foreign Direct InvestmentChina LogisticsCold chain catalystDemand for fresh food and pharmaceutical products surged during covid with increased attention being paid to food safety and standards,boosting demand for the cold storage sector.Societal changes present prior to covid were also accelerated.More and more families have both parents working while working hours are lengthening with work creeping into personal lives.Also,others are deciding to get married later on in life or choosing to live a more solitary lifestyle.While restaurant food delivery services have recovered many are choosing to continue to cook at home but do not have the time to prepare food or require smaller portions,driving demand for ready-to-cook or preprepared cooking ingredients.At the same time,some restaurants are also looking to reduce labour and real estate costs by having more of the food preparation happening off-site.According to CITIC Securities,the market for pre-prepared dishes is expected to reach about RMB1 trillion in the next decade.More cold chain facilities are therefore incorporating production lines to clean,process and package food enabling consumers to receive Ready-To-Cook packages on their doorsteps.“Quality Evaluation of Prepared Dishes”specifies that frozen prepared dishes should be stored at temperatures below-18C while refrigerated prepared dishes should be stored at temperatures between 0C and 4C.As income levels rise,consumers requirements for food diversity,nutrition,and taste are rising.The development of the cold chain market remains at a very nascent stage of development with structural changes likely to propel growth for decades to come.From fresh food e-commerce to ready-to-eat meals6China LogisticsCourier Express GrowthSource:CFLP,Savills ResearchLivestreaming e-commerce cities climb up the rankings7RankCityParcelsdelivered(mn)2018-2022 CAGRRevenue per parcel1Jinhua-Yiwu11,8052.902Guangzhou10,1318.303Shenzhen5,80010.384Jieyang3,7294.775Hangzhou3,4859.636Dongguan2,88110.037Shanghai2,85864.588Shantou2,4575.039Suzhou2,43510.2310Quanzhou2,1085.9411Beijing1,95614.9012Wuhan1,8468.6213Chengdu1,7609.2814Wenzhou1,6766.1515Foshan1,58411.0116Zhengzhou1,4858.8317Shijiazhuang1,4625.9118Ningbo1,4419.0519Linyi1,4344.6120Taizhou1,3985.24Top 20 cities by parcels deliveredOnline and tech platforms have been a key focus for regulators,sometimes to the detriment of a particular sector such as online education,but in other sectors to curb monopolistic behaviour creating new opportunities for entrants such as with the e-commerce sector which has seen the entry of byte-dance and little red book.Despite weaker consumer sentiment online sales continued to grow with new channels for consumer engagement emerging like live streaming and social commerce,with the total number of parcels delivered growing to 110.6 billion in 2022.Out of the top 50 cities for parcel deliveries,Jieyang and Shantou in Guangdong province stand out for their phenomenal growth over the last four years driven by government-supported industry planning,infrastructure and adaptive manufacturing cluster.However most important was the entrepreneurial spirit of the smaller firms in these cities and the democratisation of sales channels that the growth of these new platforms allowed.2019202020212022China Logistics8*Unless otherwise stated,rents refer to face rent incl.project management fees and excl.tax.Regional reviewsChina Logistics8090100110120130140150H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2201520162017201820192020202120222023E2024EH1/2015 =100First tierSatelliteOthersNation-wide rental indexSteady rental growth forecast as supply levels abate9Base period:2015H1First-tier cities:Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,ShenzhenSatellite cities:Tianjin,Langfang,Jiaxing,Suzhou(incl.Kunshan,Taicang,Changshu,Zhangjiagang),Foshan,Dongguan,HuizhouOther cities:Shenyang,Qingdao,Jinan,Wuxi,Nanjing,Ningbo,Hangzhou,Fuzhou,Xiamen,Xian,Chengdu,Chongqing,Kunming,Guiyang,Wuhan,Zhengzhou,ChangshaSource:Savills ResearchLogisticsKey market comparison performanceNorthern China struggles with oversupply0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0.00.20.40.60.81.01.2BeijingShenyangJinanQingdaoTianjinLangfangShanghaiHangzhouGreater SuzhouNingboNanjingJiaxingChangshaWuhanZhengzhouChengduKunmingGuiyangXianChongqingShenzhenDongguanFoshanHuizhouGuangzhoumn sqmSupply(LHS)Take-up(LHS)Vacancy(RHS)China LogisticsNorthern China11StockMn sqmRentRMB psm pmth Vacancy RateBeijing2.44 61.07.8%Tianjin5.36 30.925.6%Langfang2.94 33.455.7%Shenyang1.69 23.111.8%Jinan1.91 28.816.7%Qingdao1.29 25.88.4%Shenyang Shenyang received 84,000 sqm of new supply in 2022.Shenyang is the regional centre of Northeastern China and key hub in Chinas belt and road initiative.Demand is driven by the citys role as a key distribution hub as well as the needs of ecommerce,food processing and equipment manufacturing companies.Tianjin As the largest warehouse market in Northern China,Tianjin received 589,400 sqm of new supply in 2022.Submarkets along the Beijing-Tianjin expressway are likely to be buoyed by the relaxation of covid-control and the expected rebound in intercity transportation related demand.Jizhou,an emerging submarket,will better serve demand in Northern Tianjin and develop stronger connection with Beijing.Langfang Langfang received record levels of supply in 2022 with 756,200 sqm added to the market,the largest volume in Northern China.Removal of cross-provincial border restrictions combined with a recovery in demand and lower rents could help entice tenants away from Beijing.Nevertheless,it is going to be another year or two before vacancy rates can fall to more sustainable levels.Traditionally Grade A projects focus on Guangyang and Anci districts near the BeijingTianjin expressway.Source:Savills ResearchNB:Langfang projects near BDIA(Beijing Daxing International Airport)are excluded from Langfang figures and included in Beijing figures.Projects in Qihe County,Dezhou are included in Jinan figures.Beijing Beijing received 279,800 sqm supply in 2022.Strict border control combined with a strong consumer market,has spurred the local demand for warehouse spaces.As newly planned logistics hubs,BDIA&Pinggu submarkets are anticipated to receive a surge of new supply in the coming years.Jinan Jinan received 232,800 sqm supply in 2022.Shandongs key inland city,Jinans Grade A warehouse market predominately fulfils the needs of consumers from the surrounding region.Restrictive city planning has pushed new development to Qihe in the west where GLP,Prologis and other warehouse developers have established a presence.Qingdao Major tenants are local retailers from home appliance and furniture manufacturing industries.Qingdao received a large amount of supply during 2020-2021 as the citys airport was relocated across the bay in Jiaozhou.Nevertheless,overall remained supply-demand balance.Qingdaos 2022 status as multimodal transportation hub of the China-Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO)Local Economic and Trade Cooperation Demonstration Area,is expected to boost logistics demand significantly.China LogisticsEastern China12Suzhou Suzhou proper,Kunshan,Taicang,Changshu and Zhangjiagang together form Chinas the biggest logistics market in China.Changshu doubled its stock with more than 800,000 sqm of new supply in 2022.Affordable rents and established industry clusters continue to attract manufacturing companies from other regions benefitting the local warehouse market.Shanghai Qingpu and Jinshan received new projects in 2022,attracting regional food manufacturers,express delivery firms,and petrochemical companies.Weaker consumer sentiment resulted in diminishing demand and withdrawals by some general retail tenants(fast fashion&cosmetics),while manufacturing tenants reassessed their warehousing needs with some choosing to seek more affordable premises closer to production centres.Despite headwinds,express delivery firms continued to drive growth throughout the year.Hangzhou Hangzhou received 295,200 sqm new supply in 2022 focusing on the citys major logistics submarket Xiaoshan.As the national base of livestream ecommerce,3PLs and ecommerce remained as Hangzhous major tenants.Invest heavily in building cross border ecommerce.Nanjing Nanjing received 227,000 sqm of new supply in 2022,with projects located in Jiangning&Liuhe.Strong consumer base in Nanjing.With supply levels having peaked in 2021 occupancy levels are anticipated to gradually improve in 2023.StockMn sqmRentRMB psm pmth Vacancy RateShanghai6.80 49.610.6%Suzhou8.19 36.114.0%Jiaxing4.08 32.431.0%Ningbo2.34 31.920.7%Hangzhou3.32 35.413.0%Nanjing2.32 31.522.6%Ningbo Ningbo received 356,500 sqm of new supply in 2022,with projects located in Cixi&Yuyao submarkets.Reduced cargo shipping resulted in vacancy rates rising by 5.7 ppts in 2022.Key logistics bases are being developed for the airport courier centre,Beilun cross-border ecommerce centre,and Yuyao distribution centre.Source:Savills ResearchNB:Hangzhou includes some Huzhou&Shaoxing projectsJiaxing Jiaxing received 75,000 sqm supply in 2022 with projects in Pinghu&Jiashan.Demand came from strong local manufacturing and up/down stream industries,as well as spillover requirements from Shanghai.The market has attracted not only mature developers like ESR and Mapletree,but also newcomers like Hilltop to invest in Jiaxing.China LogisticsSouthern China13Dongguan Dongguan received 210,000 sqm supply in 2022.A recovery in the manufacturing sector and sizeable spillover demand from Shenzhen helped keep Dongguan vacancy rates at frictional levels.Average rents remain higher than Guangzhou,and only second to Shenzhen in the region.Huizhou Huizhou received 50,000 sqm supply in 2022.The smaller consumer base compared to Shenzhen and Dongguan mean that warehousing demand predominantly come from local manufacturers in electronic devices and automobile sectors.Foshan Foshan received 310,000 sqm of new supply in 2022.Apart from local manufacturing firms(home appliance and auto parts),demand comes predominantly from cross border ecommerce firms.The eastern modern logistics clustered along Highway S55 is a key focus of future development and will see new supply handed over in the coming years.StockMn sqmRentRMB psm pmth Vacancy RateGuangzhou2.55 42.911.0%Shenzhen0.50 60.81.2%Dongguan2.26 43.91.6%Foshan2.68 35.03.0%Huizhou1.06 35.68.0%Source:Savills ResearchGuangzhou Guangzhou received 530,000 sqm new supply in 2022.Unlike Shenzhen and Dongguan,Guangzhou possesses a large industrial land reserve from Zengcheng to Nansha,ensuring adequate supply in the coming years.Demand primarily comes from 3PLs and e-commerce firms.Shenzhen Yantian Port GLP Park handed over its third phase in 2022,adding 60,000 sqm(partially bonded)supply to the Shenzhen market.Average rent in Shenzhen remain the highest in the country.Extremely limited land reserves,stubbornly low vacancy rates and record setting rents have meant that new developments now reach six floors high.Even lower quality development are almost fully pre-leased.China LogisticsWestern China14Chongqing Chongqing has been significantly affected by covid disruption,extreme temperatures and deteriorating trade relations.The market has witnessed growing demand from consumer goods and pharmaceutical firms.As the key distribution hub of Chongqing,the Western Logistics Park(西部物流园)performed better than other submarkets.Submarkets like Chongqing Airport and Western Logistics Park witnessed several land transactions in 2022,pushing up supply levels in the coming years.Guiyang Guiyang received 380,000 sqm of new supply in 2022.Non-bonded logistics market predominantly served local needs,similar to Kunming.Guiyangs future is tied to the big data industry.The improvement of technological innovation and integration of real and digital economies will help to stimulate related logistics development and enhance logistics infrastructure and services.Kunming Kunmings non-bonded warehouse market predominantly serves local consumers and retailers.Despite relatively stable occupancy rates,landlords have lowered their rental expectations given challenging economic conditions.Apart from la