能源转型委员会（ETC）+能源转型所需的材料和资源.pdf

Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy TransitionJuly 2023Version 1.0The Barriers to Clean Electrification SeriesOur Commissioners come from a range of organisations energy producers,energy-intensive industries,technologyproviders,finance players and environmental NGOs which operate across developed and developing countries and play different roles in the energy transition.This diversity of viewpoints informs our work:our analyses are developed with a systems perspective through extensive exchanges with experts and practitioners.The ETC is chaired by Lord Adair Turner who works with the ETC team,led by Faustine Delasalle(Vice-Chair),Ita Kettleborough(Director),and Mike Hemsley(Deputy Director).The ETCs Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition was developed by the Commissioners with the support of the ETC Secretariat,provided by Systemiq.This report constitutes a collective view of the Energy Transitions Commission.Members of the ETC endorse the general thrust of the arguments made in this publication but should not be taken as agreeing with every finding or recommendation.The institutions with which the Commissioners are affiliated have not been asked to formally endorse this report.Accompanying this report,the ETC has developed a series of Material Factsheets for key materials(cobalt,copper,graphite,lithium,neodymium and nickel),available on the ETC website.This report looks to build upon a substantial body of work in this area,including from the IEA,IRENA,and ETC knowledge partners BNEF and RMI.The ETC team would like to thank the ETC members,member experts and the ETCs broader network of external experts for their active participation in the development of this report.The ETC Commissioners not only agree on the importance of reaching net-zero carbon emissions from the energy and industrial systems by mid-century but also share a broad vision of how the transition can be achieved.The fact that this agreement is possible between leaders from companies and organisations with different perspectives on and interests in the energy system should give decision-makers across the world confidence that it is possible simultaneously to grow the global economy and to limit global warming to well below 2C.Many of the key actions to achieve these goals are clear and can be pursued without delay.Learn more at:www.energy-transitions.org and Resource Requirements for the Energy TransitionThe Energy Transitions Commission(ETC)is a global coalition of leaders from across the energy landscape committed to achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century,in line with the Paris climate objective of limiting global warming to well below 2C and ideally to 1.5C.Barriers to Clean Electrification SeriesThe ETCs Barriers to Clean Electrification series focuses on identifying the key challenges facing the transition to clean power systems globally and recommending a set of key actions to ensure the clean electricity scale-up is not derailed in the 2020s.This series of reports will develop a view on how to“risk manage”the transition by anticipating the barriers that are likely to arise and outlining how to overcome them,providing counters to misleading claims,providing explainer content and key facts,and sharing recommendations that help manage risks.Previous publications in this series include ETC(2023),Streamlining planning and permitting to accelerate wind and solar deployment and ETC(2023),Better,Faster,Cleaner:Securing clean energy technology supply chains.The Energy Transitions Commission is hosted by SYSTEMIQ Ltd.Copyright 2023 SYSTEMIQ Ltd.All rights reserved.Front cover Image:Aerial view of an open-pit copper mine in Peru (Jose Luis Stephens/S).Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition2Our CommissionersMr Shaun Kingsbury,Chief Investment Officer Just Climate Mr.Bradley Andrews,President,UK,Norway,Central Asia&Eastern Europe Worley Mr.Jon Creyts,Chief Executive Officer Rocky Mountain Institute Mr.Spencer Dale,Chief Economist bp Mr.Bradley Davey,Executive Vice President,Head of Corporate Business Optimisation ArcelorMittal Mr.Jeff Davies,Chief Financial Officer L&G Mr.Pierre-Andr de Chalendar,Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Saint Gobain Mr.Agustin Delgado,Chief Innovation and Sustainability Officer Iberdrola Dr.Vibha Dhawan,Director General The Energy and Resources Institute Mr.Craig Hanson,Managing Director and Executive Vice President for Programs World Resources Institute Dr.Thomas Hohne-Sparborth,Head of Sustainability Research at Lombard Odier Investment Managers Lombard Odier Mr.John Holland-Kaye,Chief Executive Officer Heathrow Airport Dr.Jennifer Holmgren,Chief Executive Officer LanzaTech Mr.Fred Hu,Founder,Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Primavera Capital Dr.Rasha Hasaneen,Chief Product and Sustainability Officer Aspen Technology Ms.Mallika Ishwaran,Chief Economist Royal Dutch Shell Mr.Mazuin Ismail,Senior Vice President Petronas Dr.Timothy Jarratt,Director of Strategic Projects National Grid Mr.Greg Jackson,Founder and Chief Executive Officer Octopus Energy Mr.Alan Knight,Group Director of Sustainability DRAX Ms.Zoe Knight,Group Head,Centre of Sustainable Finance,Head of Climate Change MENAT HSBC Ms.Kirsten Konst,Member of the Managing Board Rabobank Mr.Martin Lindqvist,Chief Executive Officer and President SSAB Mr.Johan Lundn,Senior Vice President,Project and Product Strategy Office Volvo Mr.Rajiv Mangal,Vice President,Safety,Health and Sustainability Tata Steel Ms.Laura Mason,Chief Executive Officer L&G Capital Dr.Mara Mendiluce,Chief Executive Officer We Mean Business Mr.Jon Moore,Chief Executive Officer BloombergNEF Mr.Julian Mylchreest,Executive Vice Chairman,Global Corporate&Investment Banking Bank of America Mr.David Nelson,Head of Climate Transition Willis Towers Watson Ms.Damilola Ogunbiyi,Chief Executive Officer Sustainable Energy For All Mr.Paddy Padmanathan,Vice-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer ACWA Power Mr.KD Park,President Korea Zinc Ms.Nandita Parshad,Managing Director,Sustainable Infrastructure Group EBRD Mr.Alistair Phillips-Davies,Chief Executive SSE Mr.Andreas Regnell,Senior Vice President,Head of Strategic Development Vattenfall Mr.Menno Sanderse,Head of Strategy and Investor Relations Rio Tinto Mr.Siddharth Sharma,Chief Executive Officer,Tata Trusts Tata Sons Private Limited Mr.Ian Simm,Founder and Chief Executive Officer Impax Asset Management Mr.Sumant Sinha,Chairman,Founder and Chief Executive Officer ReNew Power Lord Nicholas Stern,IG Patel Professor of Economics and Government Grantham Institute LSE Dr.Gnther Thallinger,Member of the Board of Management,Investment Management,Sustainability Allianz Mr.Simon Thompson,Senior Advisor Rothschild&Co Mr.Thomas Thune Andersen,Chairman of the Board rsted Mr.Nigel Topping,Global Ambassador UN High Level Climate Action ChampionsDr.Robert Trezona,Founding Partner,Kiko Ventures IP Group Mr.Jean-Pascal Tricoire,Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Schneider Electric Ms.Laurence Tubiana,Chief Executive Officer European Climate Foundation Lord Adair Turner,Chair Energy Transitions Commission Senator Timothy E.Wirth,Vice Chair United Nations FoundationMaterial and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition3Major ETC reports and working papersSectoral focuses provided detailed decarbonisation analyses on six of the harder-to-abate sectors after the publication of the Mission Possible report(2019).As a core partner of the MPP,the ETC also completes analysis to support a range of sectorial decarbonisation initiatives:MPP Sector Transition Strategies(20222023)a series of reports thatguide the decarbonisation of seven of the hardest-to-abate sectors.Of these,four are from the materials industries:aluminium,chemicals,concrete,and steel,and three are from the mobility and transport sectors aviation,shipping,and trucking.Global Reports Sectoral and cross-sectoral focusesGeographical focuses Keeping 1.5C Alive Series(20212022)COP special reports outlining actions and agreements required in the 2020s to keep 1.5C within reach.Barriers to Clean Electrification Series(20222024)recommends actions to overcome key obstacles to clean electrification scale-up,including planning and permitting,supply chains and power grids.Unlocking the First Wave of Breakthrough Steel Investments(2023)This ETC series of reports looks at how to scale-up near-zero emissions primary(ore-based)steelmaking this decade within specific regional contexts:the UK,Southern Europe,France and USA.Canadas Electrification Advantage in the Race to Net-Zero(2022)identifies 5 catalysts that can serve as a starting point for a national electrification strategy led by Canadas premieres at the province level.China 2050:A Fully Developed Rich Zero-carbon Economy(2019)Analyses Chinas energy sources,technol-ogies and policy interventions required to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.A series of reports on the Indian power system,outlining decarbonisation roadmaps for Indias electricity supply and heavy industry.Setting up industrial regions for net zero(20212023)explore the state of play in Australia,and identifies opportunities for transitioning to net-zero emissions in five hard-to-abate supply chains.Mission Possible(2018)outlines pathways to reach net-zero emissions from the harder-to-abate sectors in heavy industry(cement,steel,plastics)and heavy-duty transport(trucking,shipping,aviation).Making Mission Possible(2020)shows that a net-zero global economy is technically and economically possible by mid-century and will require a profound transformation of the global energy system.Making Mission Possible Series(20212022)outlines how to scale-up clean energy provision to achieve a net-zero emissions economy by mid-century.Financing the Transition(2023)quantifies the finance needed to achieve a net-zero global economy and identifies policies needed to unleash investment on the scale required.Prepared bySupported byINSIGHT REPORT/MARCH 2023UNLOCKING THE FIRST WAVE OF BREAKTHROUGH STEEL INVESTMENTS in the United StatesUNLOCKING THE FIRST WAVE OF BREAKTHROUGH STEEL INVESTMENTS in the United KingdomPrepared bySupported byINSIGHT REPORT/March 2023UNLOCKING THE FIRST WAVE OF BREAKTHROUGH STEEL INVESTMENTS in FrancePrepared bySupported byINSIGHT REPORT/MARCH 2023UNLOCKING THE FIRST WAVE OF BREAKTHROUGH STEEL INVESTMENTS in Southern EuropePrepared bySupported byINSIGHT REPORT/March 2023UNLOCKING THE FIRST WAVE OF BREAKTHROUGH STEEL INVESTMENTS International OpportunitiesTHE UNITED KINGDOM,SPAIN,FRANCE,AND THE UNITED STATES Prepared bySupported byINSIGHT REPORT/April 2023Material and Resource Requirements for the Energy Transition4GlossaryBEV or EV:(Battery)electric vehicle.Bioenergy:Renewable energy derived from biological sources,in the form of solid biomass,biogas or biofuels.Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage(BECCS):A technology that combines bioenergy with carbon capture and storage to produce energy and net negative greenhouse gas emissions,i.e.removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.Carbon capture and storage(CCS):The term“carbon capture”is used to refer to process of capturing CO2 on the back of energy and industrial processes.The term“carbon capture and storage”refers to the combination of carbon capture with underground geological storage of carbon.Carbon emissions/CO2 emissions:These terms are used interchangeably to describe anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.Direct Air Carbon Capture(DACC):The term used for various technologies which use chemical processes to separate carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.This term does not carry any implications regarding subsequent treatment of the captured carbon dioxide,i.e.it could be utilised or stored.Electrolysis:A technique that uses electric current to drive an otherwise non-spontaneous chemical reaction.One form of electrolysis is the process that decomposes water into hydrogen and oxygen,taking place in an electrolyser and producting ”green”hydrogen.This process can be zero-carbon if the electricity used is zero-carbon.Environmental impacts:Harmful effects of human activities on ecosystems and natural resources.These include climate change impacts(through greenhouse gas emissions),ecotoxicity impacts,land-use related biodiversity loss,and water stress.1 Griscom et al.(2017),Natural climate solutions.FCEV:Fuel-cell electric vehicle.Greenhouse gases(GHGs):Gases that trap heat in the atmosphere.Global GHG emission contributions by gas are roughly 76%CO2,16%methane,6%nitrous oxide,and 2%fluorinated gases.Materials:A sub-set of resources that include biomass,fossil fuels,metals and non-metallic minerals.In this report we focus on a set of metals that are highly relevant to the energy transition and are interchangeably referred to as”energy transition materials”,“energy transition metals”,or”critical raw materials”.(See also Primary and Secondary Materials.)Materials efficiency:Using less materials to provide the same level of performance for a given technology,typically in units of mass(kg)per installed capacity(MW or MWh).Mineral Reserves:A dynamic working inventory of economically-extractable minerals/commodities that are currently recoverable.Mineral Resources:The total amount of a mineral/commodity that is geologically available in sufficient concentrations that extraction is potentially feasible.Typically used to refer to materials available on land(i.e.excluding deep-sea resources).Natural Climate Solutions(NCS):“Conservation,restoration and/or improved land management actions to increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests,wetlands,grasslands,agricultural lands and oceans”.1 This can be coupled with technology to secure long-term or permanent storage of greenhouse gases.Natural Resources:These include land,water and materials,and are parts of the natural world that can be used in economic activities to produce goods and services.Ore:Natural rock or sediment deposits that contains one or more valuable minerals.Ore grade:The percentage of an element of interest within a potentially mineable ore.The ore grade of different metals vary considerably,e.g.,around 50%for iron ore or around 0.6%for copper ore.Primary Materials:Materials that have been extracted from the natural environment,typically through mining.Rare Earth Elements(REEs):A set of seventeen metallic elements,made up of the fifteen lanthanides,as well as scandium and yttrium.This report focuses on the neodymium,a rare earth element typically used in high-strength magnets in both wind turbines and electric vehicles.Secondary Materials:Materials that have been recycled from a previous use-case and are supplied back into the economy as“new”raw materials.Tailings:This is the ground rock residual that remains following any milling or beneficiation processes which removes the valuable metallic constituents from the mined ore.Waste Rock:This is rock that has been mined and t