开题报告论文population.docx

Population aging problem in China
Population aging problem in China
1. Research Motivation
1.1 Motivation
The paper mainly introduced the population problem, which is conflicting between economics, society, resources, environment, especially challenging to China's social security system as a result of increasing the retirement age.
The purpose of this paper referring to the population brings many problems, such as environmental, are due to the population in terms of quantity, structure and distribution of rapid change, resulting in the conflict between population and economy, resources, environment. It happened mainly in social, such as economic impact, cost of population, birth and death, the quality of the population and aging of the population.
1.2 Background
(1)The population grows to 1 billion and 295 million population by the year of 2000.
Population aging problem in China is severe, we should take care and find the solution. It is said that the population growth to 1 billion and 295 million population by the year of 2000 in China National Bureau of Statistics in 2003-2012.

Fig .1 China’s population growth Fig .2 The trend of China’s population
(2) The large number of China’s population is the people whose age is 15 to 64 in recent years. Along with the year changed, the population of the age more than 65 years is sustainable grow.
From China National Bureau of Statistics in 2007-2012 we can know that the population is expected to continue to increase, and the speed is so fast. The data displays the population will increase to 2 billion and 400 million in 2050, and it shows the large number of China's population are the person whose age is 15 to 64 in recent years. As time goes by, the number of person whose age is older than 65 years is increasing. According to the relevant literature, more than ten years later, the total population of China will be less than the existing level.

Fig .3 The structure of China’s population in 2010 to 2014
2. Statements and Problems
This paper has discussed the China's population aging and it related to social security problems and economic problems. Many years of birth control policy have resulted in a severe population aging problem in China. China has established a social security system of a combined social pooling account and personal accounts. For years, funds from personal accounts were diverted to fill the gap in the social pooling account, resulting in growing social security debt. What we are facing is not the competitive pressure from the large amount of people, but the shortage of labor. While the social security system is controlled by the government, and China's social security system is largely a pay-as-you-go system, then the social pressure heavier and heavier owing to the problem, we must revise the security system that delayed retirement for example now. The following, believing that the pension replacement rate of manpower account is hard to obtain, so it will coordinate the manpower account funds and personal account fund as a unified pension funds to measure. Specific parameters' settings and projections are high contribution rates, high replacement rates, and high debt in the social security account.
3. Literature Review and References
3.1 current research status
(1)China's population is more severe (China National Bureau of Statistics. (2003-2012)).

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Fig.4 China’s population and its growth rate 1949–2100.

Fig. 5 shows the population trend of persons age 65 or over for China, India, Japan, United Kingdom and the United States
It appeared the population growth peak three times last century, and the birth rates were above 20 per thousand after entering 90s, and then the birth rates decreased year by year. In 2005 dropped to 12.40 per thousand. Many years of birth control policy have resulted in a severe population aging problem in China. According to the paper, although China's population is more than India, but only 60% of the population of children in India, which is the birth rate of China's population is far lower than the result of India. According to figure in the research, in 2014 China's 14 year old population accounted for only 16.5% of the total population, compared to 16.6% in 2010 and down 0.1%, has been in a serious minority, significantly lower than the world's average of 27%. According to the current birth rate of the population projections, more than ten years later, the total population of China will be less than the total of existing. Due to the aging intensifies, children under the age of 14 drop to below 15%, over the age of 60 non labor aging population will reach about 33%, 20 years old of the following non labor population about is about 18%, non labor population accounted for 50%, then the total labor force population will drop to below 5 billion, rather than "within 30 years will remain at between 700 million to 800 million". National Bureau of statistics data shows that in 2012 and 2013, China's working age population respectively over the previous year decreased by 345 million, 244 million, 2014, over the age of 16 to 60 years of age (not including 60 years of age) of the working age population 91583 people, over the previous year decreased 371 million people, accounting for the total population accounted for 67 %, compared with the previous year decreased 6 in a thousand. What we are facing is not the pressure of labor shortage and the structural unemployment caused by the shortage of labor.
(2) The one-child policy contributes to the problem (China Ministry of Labor and Social Security. (2001)).
China's population aging problem is more severe than other countries because of the one-child policy adopted in the early 1980s, increasing the retirement age and the current social security system is not sustainable. It challenges to China's social security system. Maintaining the current replacement and contribution rates, social security debt will be explosive. Then increase the retirement age.
(3) The current social security system is not sustainable (Diamond, P. A., & Barr, N. (2006)).
Funds from personal accounts have been used to finance the deficits in the social pooling account. People older than 60 years can receive a pension. Social problems in different times reflect different contents. Population problem in modern times is one of the most important social problems in the world, which is the core of many social problems. Although it is different in different countries, its essence is mainly manifested in the population reproduction and the material reproduction of the disorder, population growth over economic growth and the emergence of population surplus. In China, for instance, a great variety of problems that we encountered in our social life are directly or indirectly related to the enormous pressure on population in the process of development. First of all, population pressure to provide the existing population living conditions and improve the living standards of the people, has encountered insurmountable difficulties. The obvious performance for the employment is difficult, such as housing shortage of food, fuel and other necessities of life, the performance of the aging population, etc.
3.2 Development direction research status
(1) Growing social security debt
Growing social security debt is becoming a serious problem now (Shiller. R. J. (2006)). Maintaining the current replacement and contribution rates, social security debt will be explosive. Then the increasing the retirement age which China's pension system faces the one of the problems is population aging. Funds from personal accounts must be used to finance deficits in the social pooling account. Then debt will increase in the future. The current system is not sustainable without reforms. The social security system was controlled by the government. China began to reform its centrally planned economy in 1978. In June 1991, a three-tier system was established. The current social security contributions and benefits were defined in 2005. A large number of people need the social security pension while a few people pay the government taxes.
China's population aging problem is more severe than other countries because of the one-child policy adopted in the early 1980s, and the current social security system is not sustainable. A two-sector over lapping generation model is developed to analyze innovation of social security in China. It is shown that if the government done nothing to reform the system, maintaining the current change and contribution rates, social security debt will be explosive. Various reforms are considered, including adjusting the replacement rate while keeping the contribution rate constant, increasing the contribution rate while maintaining the current replacement rate, increasing the retirement age with the contribution rate being unchanged, increasing the retirement age with the replacement rate being unchanged, and switching to a fully-funded system by using government assets to pay the implicit social security debt. The effects of these reforms on capital accumulation, the output, and the welfare for each generation are simulated and compared.
This paper discusses China's population aging problem and the resulting challenges to China's social security system. The effects of various reforms to the social security system on capital accumulation, the output, and welfare for individuals in a two-sector overlapping generations model are analyzed. China's population aging and the related social security problems are really an obvious problem. Many years of birth control policy have resulted in a severe population aging problem in China. China has established a social security system of a combined social pooling account and personal accounts. For years, funds from personal accounts were diverted to fill the gap in the social pooling account, resulting in growing social security debt. The paper developed a two-sector computable equilibrium model of overlapping generations to simulate the effects of various social security reforms. It shows that contribution rates and accumulating social security debt will be explosive. Thus, the current system is not sustainable.
The present practice of financing social security benefits out of the social security taxes paid by the members of the labor force depends upon the fact that the number of old people eligible for social security is not unreasonably high compared to the size of the working population.
Suppose that instead of the approximately 26 million persons eligible, there were 40 million today. The number of people in their working years is much lower in proportion. And benefits would have to be reduced (at least as a percentage of GNP), social security taxes would have to be sharply increased, or social security would have to be operated as a true trust fund. Any of these results would have undesirable consequences on some of the individuals affected.
It is clear that a population policy is only one tool among many ameliorate social ills. Other policy alternatives for dealing with alterations in the age structure are clearly needed. However, other policy options for responding to problems generated by the total number of persons, their locations and age distribution will be ineffective if these fundamental characteristics of the population itself are not kept within manageable limits.
(2) Challenging to economy
The problem impacted on economy (United Nations. (2011)). China's pension system faces the one of the problems is population aging, funds from personal accounts will have to be used to finance deficits in the social pooling account. Then debt will increase in the future. The current system is not sustainable without reforms. In 2009, it is a funded system and participants have their own personal accounts, and the funded system are both individuals and the government contribute. Then that the rural people older than 60 years can receive a pension.
4. Value and Significant
4.1 Realize the problem
We must realize the problem and the paper gives rise to China's social security reforms as population aging has increased. Then the government should take the effective measures instantly. Following is some suggestions that government should try to solve the problem.
4.2 Suggest government to solve the problem
Helping the government solves the implicit social security liabilities necessarily. The government takes emergency action to deal with. To adjust current change and contribution rates, we should increase the retirement age, switch to a fully-funded system. The effects of these reforms, the output, and the welfare for each generation are simulated and compared.
5. Research Approaches and Planning
5.1 Research approaches
Following research approaches will be made by doing survey and learning from literature. The research would give solutions to the problem. But variety of current situations needs a detailed redistribution mechanism before it is implemented.
5.2 Research Planning
Then I am going to do the research by learning literature, and analyzing the question. I would also like to study the research methodology so that to try to make the conclusion effective to solve the problem.
6. References
[1]China Ministry of Labor and Social Security. Beijing: China labor and social security yearbook. China Labor and Social Security Publishing House, 2001.
[2]China National Bureau of Statistics. Beijing: China labor statistical yearbook. China Statistics Press , 2003-2012.
[3]China National Bureau of Statistics. Beijing: China statistical yearbook. China Statistics Press, 2007–2012.
[4]Diamond, P. A., & Barr, N. Social security reform in China. Issues and options. Comparative Studies, 2006, 24:33–66,25: 99–103.
[5] Shiller , R. J. Life-cycle personal accounts proposal for social security. An evaluation of president Bush’s proposal . Journal of Policy Modeling, 2006,28: 427–444.
[6] Department of Economic and Social Affairs. United Nations: World population prospects. Population Division,2011.
[7]Ze- Rong He, Yan Liu. An optimal birth control problem for a dynamical population model with size-structure . Nonlinear Analysis. Real World Applications , 2012, 13: 1369–1378.
[8]聂长建.人口问题能“以日为鉴”.江汉学术,2016，35（2）：48-53.
[9]人口问题. n k ? u r l=o0EGBpwQfzN08a VViDOHXzH6gSZ6KE8WYqnnrGNJiorH_A5_XxZVWKKntt68kcoU7x6BzcXJQbGmv6C_4Q8tca.