投资项目评估习题答案.ppt

单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,项目评估作业答案,某市,2002,年至,2010,年包装板纸的销售额如下表：,试用简单移动平均法预测,11,年的年销售额。,年份,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,销售额,48,42,47,50,48,52,54,51,53,单位,:,万元,3,年平均,4,年平均,5,年平均,年度,实际值,预测值,绝对误差,预测值,绝对误差,预测值,绝对误差,2002,48,2003,42,2004,47,2005,50,45.67,4.33,2006,48,46.33,1.67,46.75,1.25,2007,52,48.33,3.67,46.75,5.25,47,5,2008,54,50.00,4.00,49.25,4.75,47.8,6.2,2009,51,51.33,-0.33,51,0,50.2,0.8,2010,53,52.33,0.67,51.25,1.75,51,2,14.67,13,14,2.44,2.6,3.5,2011,三年平均值,52.67,某产品过去,8,个周期的销售量分别为,73,、,48,、,40,、,59,、,76,、,62,、,55,、,69,，试用指数平滑法，当,a,=0.8,时，预测下一周期的销售量。,期数,实际值,预测值,1,73,2,48,73,3,40,53.00,4,59,42.60,5,76,55.72,6,62,71.94,7,55,63.99,8,69,56.80,66.56,自己设例并用平均增长量法对产品的市场需求量进行预测。,某市,2004,年至,2010,年包装板纸的销售额如下表：,试用直线趋势预测,11,、,13,年的年销售额。,年份,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,销售额,29,30,32,34,35,37,39,单位,:,万元,年度,x,y,x*x,x*y,2004,-3,29,9,-87,2005,-2,30,4,-60,2006,-1,32,1,-32,2007,0,34,0,0,2008,1,35,1,35,2009,2,37,4,74,2010,3,39,9,117,0,236,28,47,a=,33.71,b=,1.68,Y=33.71+1.68x,2011,2013,通过调查，某地民用电价和电冰箱需求量的统计数据如下：值,1,值,2,电冰箱需求量（万台）,30 25,民用电价（元,/,度）,0.3 0.35,初步估计该地,2011,年电冰箱需求量为,40,万台，但根据有关政策知，该地,2011,年电价将提高,15%,，试预测该地,2011,年电冰箱的需求量。,Q,30,25,P,0.3,0.35,-0.17,0.17,C,AB,-1,F,2011,=,40,(1-1,15%)=34,某项目所需主要原材料的供应地位置及年运输情况如下表：,原材料种类及坐标,钢材,生铁,焦炭,其他材料,供应地坐标,（,Km,）,X1,Y1,X2,Y2,X3,Y3,X4,Y4,90,500,350,400,100,120,350,200,年运量,（千吨）,2000,1000,1000,2000,设各地材料吨公里运费相同，试确定该项目厂址的合理位置。,作业,:,某公司有价值,100,万元的办公楼出租,与对方签定一年租赁合同,租金一次预收,17,万元,;,或按月收取,1.5,万元租金,若公司的资金收益率每月,1%,问该公司选取哪种方案更有利？,现金流量图,17,T,12,A,A,A,A,A,A,A,A,A,A,A,A,A=1.5,T,12,方法一,:,P,1,=17,P,2,=1.5+1.5(P/A,1%,11),=17.052,方法二,:,F,1,=17(F/P,1%,12)=19.156,F,2,=1.5(F/A,1%,12)(1+1%),=19.214,现金流量图,17,T,12,A=1.5,A,A,A,A,A,A,A,A,A,A,A,A,T,12,方法一,:,P,1,=17,P,2,=1.5(P/A,1%,12)=16.883,方法二,:,F,1,=17(F/P,1%,12)=19.156,F,2,=1.5(F/A,1%,12)=19.024,课堂作业,:,建设期,投产期,1,2,3,4,5,年初贷款本（利）和,本年使用贷款,100,100,本年偿还贷款,本年应计利息,年末贷款本（利）和,本年还款来源,80,90,100,年度,项目,单位,:,万元，,i=10,%,第一年：应付利息,=,（,0+100/2,）,10%=5,年末贷款本利和,=100+5=105,求：,Pd,。,建设期,投产期,1,2,3,4,5,年初贷款本（利）和,105,本年使用贷款,100,100,本年偿还贷款,本年应计利息,5,年末贷款本（利）和,105,本年还款来源,80,90,100,年度,项目,i=10%,第二年：,应付利息,=,（,105+100/2,）,10%=15.5,年末贷款本利和,=105+100+15.5=220.5,建设期,投产期,1,2,3,4,5,年初贷款本（利）和,105,220.5,本年使用贷款,100,100,本年偿还贷款,本年应计利息,5,15.5,年末贷款本（利）和,105,220.5,本年还款来源,80,90,100,年度,项目,i=10%,第三年：,应付利息,=,（,220.58-80/2,）,10%=18.05,年末贷款本金合计,=220.5-80=140.5,建设期,投产期,1,2,3,4,5,年初贷款本（利）和,105,220.5,140.5,本年使用贷款,100,100,本年偿还贷款,80,本年应计利息,5,15.5,18.05,年末贷款本（利）和,105,220.5,140.5,本年还款来源,80,90,100,年度,项目,i=10%,第四年：,应付利息,=,（,140.5-90/2,）,10%=9.55,年末贷款本金合计,=140.5-90=50.5,建设期,投产期,1,2,3,4,5,年初贷款本（利）和,105,220.5,140.5,50.5,本年使用贷款,100,100,本年偿还贷款,80,90,本年应计利息,5,15.5,18.05,9.55,年末贷款本（利）和,105,220.5,140.5,50.5,本年还款来源,80,90,100,年度,项目,i=10%,第五年：应付利息,=50.5210%=2.525,建设期,投产期,1,2,3,4,5,年初贷款本（利）和,105,220.5,140.5,50.5,本年使用贷款,100,100,本年偿还贷款,80,90,50.5,本年应计利息,5,15.5,18.05,9.55,2.525,年末贷款本（利）和,105,220.5,140.5,50.5,0,本年还款来源,80,90,100,年度,项目,i=10%,课堂作业：,某项目分四年建设，各年投资分别为,2000,，,7000,，,9000,，,3000,万元，流动资金为,1000,万元（在第四年投入），固定资产建成后的使用期限为,15,年，预计残值为,4800,万元，经营成本第,5,年为,2700,万元，以后各年分别为,3200,万元；销售收入第,5,年为,6700,万元，以后各年分别为,8700,万元；销售税金第,5,年为,1000,万元，以后各年分别为,1300,万元。（不考虑所得税）,要求：,1.,列出该项目的现金流量表。,2.,计算其静态投资回收期。,3.,测算其内部收益率。,1.,现金流量表,序号,内 容,建 设 期,生 产 期,合计,1,2,3,4,5,6,18,19,（一）,现金流入,1.,销售收入,2.,残值,3.,回收流动资金,小 计,6700,6700,8700,8700,8700,4800,1000,14500,128500,4800,1000,134300,（二）,现金流出,1.,投资,2.,流动资金,3.,经营成本,4.,销售税金,小 计,2000,2000,7000,7000,9000,9000,3000,1000,4000,2700,1000,3700,3200,1300,4500,3200,1300,4500,21000,1000,47500,19200,88700,（三）,净现金流量,-2000,-7000,-9000,-4000,3000,4200,10000,45600,（四）,累计净现金流量,-2000,-9000,-18000,-22000,-19000,35600,45600,2.,静态投资回收期,年 度,1,2,3,4,5,6,净现金流量,-2000,-7000,-9000,-4000,3000,4200,累计净现金流量,-2000,-9000,-18000,-22000,-19000,-14800,年 度,7,8,9,10,11,净现金流量,4200,4200,4200,4200,4200,累计净现金流量,-10600,-6400,-2200,2000,6200,3.,内部收益率,内 容,建 设 期,生 产 期,合 计,1,2,3,4,5,6,18,19,净现金流量,-2000,-7000,-9000,-4000,3000,4200,10000,45600,13%,折现系数,0.885,0.783,0.693,0.613,0.543,3.323,0.098,现 值,-1770,-5481,-6237,-2452,1629,13957,980,626,14%,折现系数,0.877,0.769,0.675,0.592,0.519,3.034,0.083,现 值,-1750,-5383,-6075,-2368,1557,12743,830,-746,内 容,建 设 期,生 产 期,合 计,1,2,3,4,5,6,18,19,净现金流量,-2000,-7000,-9000,-4000,3000,4200,10000,45600,10%,折现系数,0.909,0.826,0.751,0.683,0.621,4.410,0.164,现 值,-1818,-5782,-6759,-2732,1863,18522,1640,4934,11%,折现系数,0.901,0.812,0.731,0.659,0.593,4.006,0.138,现 值,-1802,-5684,-6579,-2636,1779,16825,1380,3283,12%,折现系数,0.893,0.797,0.712,0.636,0.567,3.645,0.116,现 值,-1786,-5579,-6408,-2544,1701,15309,1160,1853,15%,折现系数,0.870,0.756,0.658,0.572,0.497,2.776,0.070,现 值,-1740,-5292,-5922,-2288,1491,11659,7000,-1392,课堂作业：,某拟建项目生产一种产品，设计生产能力为,2000,件，单位产品售价为,100,元，单位产品变动成本为,60,元，应摊入固定成本总额为,20000,元，试用“安全边际率”分析该项目的风险承受能力。,解：,S=10002000=200000,（元）,F=20000,（元）,N=602000=12000,（元）,Q=S-N-F=200000-120000-20000,=60000,（元）,某公司回收废液中的重金属,有四种工艺方案供选择,基准投资回收期,4,年,其他数据如下表。应选择哪种方案？,A,B,C,D,总投资（万元）,100,120,145,165,年成本（万元）,60,52,44,40,差额投资回收期比较,差额投资回收期,比较,选择,A,与,B,20/8=2.5,4,选,B,B,与,C,25/8=3.1,4,选,C,某钢铁公司有几个互斥型方案，有关数据如下表，方案的寿命期均为,7,年。当折现率为,10%,时，资金无限制，哪个方案最佳？,方案,初始投资（万元）,年净收入（万元）,A,0,0,B,2000,500,C,3000,900,D,4000,1100,E,5000,1380,现金流量,0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,A,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,B,-2000,500,500,500,500,500,500,500,C,-3000,900,900,900,900,900,900,900,D,-4000,1100,1100,1100,1100,1100,1100,1100,E,-5000,1380,1380,1380,1380,1380,1380,1380,0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,净现值,A,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.00,0.00,B,-2000,500,500,500,500,500,500,500,2,434.21,434.21,C,-3000,900,900,900,900,900,900,900,4,381.58,1,381.58,D,-4000,1100,1100,1100,1100,1100,1100,1100,5,355.26,1,355.26,E,-5000,1380,1380,1380,1380,1380,1380,1380,6,718.42,1,718.42,E,方案最优,净现值计算,等额年值计算,方 案,(A/P,10%,7),年等值,A,0,0,0.205405,0,B,-2000,500,0.205405,89.19,C,-3000,900,0.205405,283.79,D,-4000,1100,0.205405,278.38,E,-5000,1380,0.205405,352.98,E,方案最优,