地震的分类与变化规律123.doc

地震分类与变化规律和特征（李喆牛青坡胡长刚）摘要：地震对人类的生命财产具有相当大的危害性，现在我们对以往地震活动进行分析可以帮助人类更清楚的了解地震的规律和变化趋势。然而一次真正的社会显示度的预报需要给出未来的地震时间，地震区域地点和震级。本文的研究立足于国家台网中心发布的地震震级4。0以上的记录数据，运用matlab的拟合运算，极限时间法，并联关系规则算法，纬度经度的图像函数作出相应的函数，作出地震相关性预报，以及中心得出地震发生的规律及其特征，从而预测出地震发生的时间和地点范围，能够及时的减少地震带来的损失。关键词：地震；拟合运算；极限时间法；并联关系规则（一）问题的提出地震对人类的生命财产具有相当大的危害性，5.12汶川大地震造成了巨大的损失，截至7月21日12时，四川汶川地震已造成69197人遇难，18222人失踪(中国新闻网)。对以往地震活动进行分析可以帮助人类更清楚的了解地震的规律和变化趋势。附件是国家台网中心发布的地震震级4。0以上的记录数据，对以上数据建立数学模型进行分析，将特征将其进行分类，并分析其变化规律和趋势。（二）模型的假设（1）假设每两个地震之间的时间差为。（2）第一次地震发生的时间为。（3）假设一些特殊情况对地震的发生无影响。（4）假设地震的发生遵循一定的规律（5）假设声音及震源波动对数据不产生影响（6）假设各个地区之间的地震无影响（7）假设地壳结构对地震的预测不产生影响（三）问题的分析对题中地震区域进行划分，以地区的发生地震的密集程度进行分类，由matlab软件实现地域的分类问题。以其中一块进行分析，列出所举例的区域的所有数据，运用极限时间法求出此地域的未来地震强度，地震的大致日期。（四）符号说明：每两个地震之间的时间差T:第一、二次地震之间的时间差，它是比较大的时间差h :地震异常系数n :地震相应次数 ：开始的时间 ：第n次地震发生的时间n :1 2 3正整数（五）模型的建立及其求解问题一：给出合理的地震分类运用matlab软件将所有附件中所列举的数据一一用散点描述出来，用二维图像表示，横轴表示纬度，纵轴表示经度，一一描点。如下图表由以上图表，可将地震聚集地带分为6个板块：（1）纬度（-32，-20）经度（-180，-175）（2）纬度（-40，20） 经度（-100，-50）（3）纬度（-65，-45）经度（-50，0）（4）纬度（40，60）经度（-200，-100）（5）纬度（-60，-40）经度（150，200）（6）纬度（-20，60）经度（50，200）问题二：预测地震的变化规律及其趋势（1）列出选定的地域范围及其相应数据日期时间纬度经度深度震级参考地点h及T2001-08-2114:52:06.5-34.8-179.80Ms7.0新西兰东北海中2002-08-1919:01:00.0-21.9-178.3540Ms7.5斐济2006-01-0306:13:45.0-20.0-178.2540Ms7.1斐济T=11342006-05-0323:26:33.8-20.0-174.215Ms7.9汤加3.24032006-05-1618:39:20.4-31.6-179.2160Ms7.5克马德克群岛以南地区4.06752007-12-0915:28:22.6-26.1-177.3160Ms7.7斐济以南地区0.4987(2)极限时间法根据公式=T*(1/nh)求出h的值，计算如上表。在根据h的异常情况判断地震发生的震级大致强度，h越大，下次地震震级越高，因而06年5月16日地震震级为7.5级，07年12月09日震级为7.7级。当h的值为0.4987时，下次地震震级较小。从而可判断地震发生的大致时间和震级。（六）模型的讨论与分析本文根据图形描点法，数据的完整性，以及以往的经验算法恰当的描绘出地震的具体分布，利用人工进行地震分布排序。再运用极限时间法计算出相应区域下次地震发生的大致时间和震级。八、参考文献：1刘正荣地震发生的极限时间J地震研究，2OO2，25(2)：95992刘正荣永胜地震的前震分析J地震研究，2OO2。25 (3)：207203 附件日期时间纬度经度深度震级参考地点2008-06-2305:38:32.532.4105.110Ms4.1四川青川县2008-06-1918:25:58.232.8105.533Ms4.4四川青川与陕西宁强交界2008-06-1816:12:14.733.392.133Ms5.0青海唐古拉地区2008-06-1813:23:33.935.391.233Ms5.4青海治多县2008-06-1713:51:44.932.8105.633Ms4.5陕西宁强县2008-06-1407:43:42.539.1140.810Ms7.0日本本州东部2008-06-1106:23:20.230.9103.433Ms5.0四川汶川县2008-06-1100:27:28.632.8105.833Ms4.3陕西宁强县2008-06-1022:15:39.033292.033Ms5.4青海海西唐古拉山地区2008-06-1019:04:18.333.391.933Ms5.1青海海西唐古拉山地区2008-06-1018:04:58.033.291.933Ms5.5青海海西唐古拉山地区2008-06-1014:05:02.849.0122.533Ms5.2内蒙古鄂伦春自治旗与阿荣旗交界地区2008-06-0915:28:36.031.4103.833Ms5.0四川彭县2008-06-0901:56:23.933.292.233Ms5.0青海海西自治州2008-06-0820:25:25.638.021.410Ms6.1希腊2008-06-0806:1429.032.5105.133Ms4.7四川青川县2008-06-0718:42:04.732.4105.633Ms4.6四川广元市2008-06-0715:32:47.832.5105.233Ms4.0四川青川县2008-06-0714:28:34.832.5105.433Ms4.3四川青川县2008-06-0514:02:32.232.7105.533Ms4.3四川青川县2008-06-0512:41:08.232.3105.033Ms5.0四川青川县2008-06-0501:26:41.332.3105.133Ms4.0四川青川县2008-06-0200:59:21.625.0121.796Ms5.0台湾台北2008-06-0109:57:17.820.1121.333Ms6.3巴士海峡2008-05-3115:34:21.932.6105.433Ms4.0四川青川县2008-05-3114:22:42.832.4105.033Ms4.0四川青川县2008-05-2923:46:01.964.0-21.033Ms6.5冰岛2008-05-2912:48:43.032.6105.533Ms4.6四川青川县2008-05-2801:35:11.232.7105.433Ms4.7四川青川县2008-05-2721:59:36.232.5105.233Ms4.7四川青川县2008-05-2716:37:53.232.8105.633Ms5.7陕西宁强县2008-05-2716:03:24.132.7105.633Ms5.4四川青川县2008-05-2516:21:47.032.6105.433Ms6.4四川青川2008-05-2401:53:34.532.5105.233Ms4.1四川青川县2008-05-2400:10:24.732.2105.033Ms4.0四川江油市2008-05-2219:22:27.532.6105.433Ms4.0四川青川县2008-05-2123:29:52.632.4105.133Ms4.3四川青川县2008-05-2117:33:13.632.3105.233Ms4.5四川青川县2008-05-2011:42:28.632.5105.433Ms4.0四川青川县2008-05-2001:52:36.432.3104.933Ms5.0四川平武县2008-05-1918:08:34.342.4132.1540Ms6.2东俄罗斯东海岸近海2008-05-1914:06:54.932.5105.333Ms5.4四川青川县2008-05-1912:08:59.032.1105.033Ms4.8四川江油市2008-05-1801:08:23.432.1105.033Ms6.0四川江油市2008-05-1706:33:11.332.2105133Ms4.2四川江油市2008-05-1704:16:52.031.3103.533Ms5.0四川汶川县2008-05-1704:00:13.932.6105.433Ms4.1四川青川县2008-05-1700:14:46.331.2103.533Ms5.1四川汶川县2008-05-1618:20:49.132.5105.133Ms4.0四川青川县2008-05-1614:34:39.632.4105.233Ms4.3四川青川县2008-05-1613:25:49.031.4103.233Ms5.9四川理县2008-05-1611:10:00.632.5105.133Ms4.0四川青川县2008-05-1521:04:08.132.6105.633Ms4.4四川广元市2008-05-1505:01:08.031.6104.233Ms5.0四川安县2008-05-1421:29:45.232.3105.133Ms4.5四川江油市2008-05-1418:00:33.032.4105.133Ms4.8四川青川县2008-05-1417:26:44.031.4104.033Ms5.1四川什邡县2008-05-1410:54:36.531.3103.433Ms5.6四川汶川县2008-05-1402:27:53.022.6121.033Ms5.1台湾台东2008-05-1323:1031.832.6105.533Ms4.1四川青川县2008-05-1321:31:32.332.4105.133Ms4.5四川青川县2008-05-1321:13:02.532.5105.533Ms4.4四川青川县2008-05-1320:51:36.532.3105.033Ms4.6四川青川县2008-05-1316:11:01.032.5105.233Ms4.1四川青川县2008-05-1315:53:03.732.3105.033Ms4.8四川青川县2008-05-1315:51:32.732.5105.333Ms4.4四川青川县2008-05-1315:19:16.532.3105.033Ms4.8四川青川县2008-05-1315:07:11.030.9103.433Ms6.1四川汶川县2008-05-1313:36:34.632.4105.233Ms4.4四川青川县2008-05-1313:25:50.632.6105.233Ms4.2四川青川县2008-05-1308:54:04.932.5105.233Ms4.3四川青川县2008-05-1307:54:46.431.3103.533Ms5.1四川汶川县2008-05-1307:46:22.731.2103.433Ms5.3四川汶川县2008-05-1304:51:29.132.4105.233Ms4.7四川青川县2008-05-1304:45:31.731.7104.533Ms5.2四川安县2008-05-1304:08:50.131.4104.033Ms5.7四川什邡县2008-05-1302:55:24.731.9105.133Ms4.4四川江油市2008-05-1302:46:14.632.5105.033Ms4.4四川青川县2008-05-1301:54:36.130.8103.933Ms5.0四川郫县2008-05-1300:34:15.632.5105.133Ms4.2四川青川县2008-05-1223:28:56.231.0103.533Ms5.0四川都江堰市2008-05-1223:05:34.131.0103.833Ms5.0四川彭县2008-05-1222:46:09.532.7105.533Ms5.1四川青川县2008-05-1221:40:54.331.0103.533Ms5.1四川汶川县2008-05-1220:23:28.832.7105.333Ms4.5甘肃文县2008-05-1220:06:33.132.2105.515Ms4.1四川剑阁县2008-05-1220:04:39.232.6105.315Ms4.2四川青川县2008-05-1219:52:22.332.6105.515Ms4.7四川青川县2008-05-1219:10:58.431.4103.633Ms6.0四川汶川县2008-05-1218:23:40.131.0103.315Ms5.0四川汶川县2008-05-1217:42:26.431.5103.933Ms5.2四川什邡县2008-05-1217:07:03.131.3103.833Ms5.0四川彭县2008-05-1216:47:29.032.1105.533Ms4.8四川剑阁县2008-05-1216:21:47.331.3104.133Ms5.2四川绵竹县2008-05-1215:34:47.831.0103.510Ms5.0四川汶川县2008-05-1214:43:15.031.0103.533Ms6.0四川汶川县2008-05-1214:28:04.031.0103.414Ms8.0四川汶川县2008-05-1103:42:00.924.0122.533Ms5.6台湾以东海中2008-05-0800:45:06.936.1141.633Ms7.1日本本州东海岸近海2008-05-0209:33:36.052.0-177.633Ms7.0安德烈亚诺夫群岛2008-04-2402:28:45.023.0121.733Ms6.1台湾东部海中2008-04-2021:14:48.946.082.733Ms5.1新疆裕民县2008-04-1208:30:12.3-55.6158.415Ms7.1麦夸里岛地区200804-0920:46:20.1-20.2168.996Ms7.3洛亚尔提群岛2008-03-3016:32:29.038.0102.033Ms5.0甘肃肃南裕固族自治县2008-03-3001:30:51.53.095.333Ms6.8北苏门答腊西海岸远海2008-03-2618:39:28.135.781.633Ms5.0新疆于田县2008-03-2423:24:41.032.6110.110Ms4.2湖北竹山县2008-03-2120:36:55.624.597.633Ms5.0云南盈江县与缅甸交界地区2008-03-2120:02:57.635.381.333Ms5.0新疆洛浦与西藏日土交界地区2008-03-2108:26:16.535.581.533Ms5.2新疆于田县2008-03-2108:10:41.035.581.533Ms5.0新疆于田县2008-03-2107:12:03.035.581.533Ms5.2新疆于田县2008-03-2106:38:58.635.581.533Ms5.1新疆于田县2008-03-2106:33:02.635.681.633Ms7.3新疆于田县2008-03-1104:24:14.639.9118.910Ms3.9河北卢龙县2008-03-1005:45:13.035.0114.710Ms4.3河南封丘、长垣与兰考交界2008-03-0621:57:54.526.4118.710Ms4.2福建宁德市古田县2008-03-0501:31:47.323.2120.710Ms5.1台湾台南、高雄县间2008-03-0322:11:14.913.3125.833Ms6.7菲律宾群岛地区2008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