房地产价格波动的动因分析.docx

房地产价格波动的动因分析
——基于贵阳市房地产业的实证分析
刘玮
学位授予单位:贵州财经学院;学科专业:企业管理
摘要
我国房地产业发展迅速,房地产市场的发展对促进国民经济的发展做出了突出贡献,房地产业已经成为
我国重要的产业之一,但它的发展并不是一帆风顺的,而是在波动和曲折中前进。房地产业关联度广、影响力
强,房地产价格波动危害性大,起伏过大的波动会危机整个国民经济的发展。贵阳市作为贵州省的省会城市,
其房地产价格的运行,可以作为我国落后地区中等城市的房地产价格的代表,研究贵阳市房地产价格波动,把
握贵阳市房地产业和房地产市场发展的规律,具有一定的理论意义。同时,探究贵阳市房地产价格波动的动因,
有助于指导贵阳市房地产业的健康发展,具有很高的实践价值。
影响房地产价格波动的动因有很多,如反映市场因素的供求关系,还有反映非市场因素的诸如地租、消
费者的心理预期、国家宏观调控政策和国际金融危机等因素。然而,这些影响因素在不同的城市和地区、不
同的房地产业发展阶段所表现出来的影响力大小是各不一样的。本文以贵阳市房地产价格(主要以住宅成交
价格)为研究对象,试图探讨在现阶段贵阳市房地产市场环境下,哪些因素对贵阳市房地产价格产生的影响是
主要的,哪些是次要的(当然这种主次因素是相对且是动态的),并通过对贵阳市房地产业进行定性和定量的
实证研究,揭示其内在的运行机制。
本文对房地产价格波动的动因分析主要由以下部分组成:
第一部分:简要阐述了房地产价格波动的选题背景、国内外研究现状,并归纳了本文的研究思路、研究
方法及创新点。
第二部分:房地产价格波动的基本理论综述。这部分主要介绍房地产价格波动的含义及特征以及影响房
地产价格波动的市场因素和非市场因素。
第三部分:贵阳市房地产价格波动的现状及问题。这部分首先介绍中国房地产价格波动的大背景;其次
介绍了贵阳市房地产价格波动的现状及问题。
第四部分:价格波动理论的实证分析—贵阳市房地产市场。这部分首先运用市场因素的供求理论,对贵
阳市房地产价格波动进行定性和定量的分析,其中重点是定量的实证分析;其次,运用非市场因素理论对贵阳
市房地产价格波动进行分析;最后,介绍了贵阳市房地产价格未来走势的预期。
第五部分:简要介绍贵阳市房地产价格波动的对策与建议。
本文的创新之处:鉴于已有的研究成果大多数是从宏观的角度对我国房地产价格进行分析,本文通过对
贵阳市房地产价格波动的动因进行实证分析,在研究方法上,以数量模型的形式定量地将房地产价格和影响
房地产价格的其他市场因素(如房地产开发投资占全社会固定资产投资的比率、社会消费品总额、城市居民
人均可支配收入、土地出让面积占GDP的比率等)定义为应变量和自变量:同时,本文也运用非市场因素理论
对贵阳市房地产价格波动进行分析,即以定性的形式来说明。通过观察它们之间的因果关系来寻找其内在之
间的变化规律,以此为房地产业的政策制定提供依据。鉴于对于特定主体(比如一个城市)房地产价格运行的
研究还是非常有限的,所以本文的研究在特定对象上也表现出一定的创新性。
本文通过实地调查,收集资料,在大量调查研究的基础之上,通过理论研究与实证研究相结合,着眼于目
前贵阳市房地产业的现状及问题,并在对资料进行全面整理、分析的基础上,对贵阳市房地产价格波动的动因
进行理论和实证研究分析,并给出了相关的对策。
关键词：房地产价格;;房地产业;;波动;;动因Abstract
The rapid development of our country real estate,real estate market development in promoting the
development of the national economy have made outstanding contributions to,the real estate industry has become
one of important industries in our country,but its development is not smooth,but in the fluctuations and twists and
turns ahead.Correlation degree in real estate and impact resilient,real estate price fluctuations danger of big ups
and downs will be too large fluctuations in the development of the entire national economy crisis.Guiyang City,
Guizhou Province,as the capital city,and its real estate price run our country backward areas can serve as a
medium-sized city on behalf of real estate prices,research real estate price fluctuations in Guiyang City,Guiyang
City to grasp the real estate industry and real estate market development laws,has a certain theoretical significance.
At the same time,explore the Guiyang City real estate price fluctuations cause,help guide the health of Guiyang
City real estate development,with high practical value.
The impact of fluctuations in real estate prices have a lot of motivation,such as a reflection of market supply
and demand factors,have reflected the non-market factors such as rent,consumer psychology,national
macro-control policies and the international financial crisis and other factors.However,these influencing factors in
different cities and regions,different stages of development of the real estate industry has shown the influence of
the size are all different.In this paper,Guiyang City real estate prices(mainly residential transaction prices)as the
research object,trying to explore at this stage in Guiyang City real estate market environment,what are the factors
of Guiyang City,the impact of real estate prices are the main and which are secondary the,and Guiyang City real
estate industry through qualitative and quantitative empirical research to reveal its inherent operating mechanism.
In this paper,real estate price fluctuations cause analysis mainly by the following components:
PartⅠ:briefly elaborated on the topics of real estate price fluctuations background,domestic and foreign
research and this paper summarizes the research ideas,research methods and innovation.
PartⅡ:real estate price fluctuations the basic theory of synthesis.This part of the major real estate price
fluctuations introduce the meaning and characteristics,as well as the impact of price fluctuations in the real estate
market factors and non-market factors.
PartⅢ:Guiyang City real estate price fluctuations and question the status quo.This part of the first Chinese
real estate price fluctuations introduce background;followed by the introduction of Guiyang City real estate price
fluctuations and question the status quo.
PartⅣ:Price fluctuations in the theory of empirical analysis-Guiyang City real estate market.This part of
the first use of the market factors of supply and demand theory,fluctuations in real estate prices in Guiyang
qualitative and quantitative analysis,which focused on quantitative empirical analysis;Secondly,the use of
non-market factors in the theory of Guiyang City real estate price volatility analysis;Finally,introduced the
Guiyang City real estate prices the expected future trends.
PartⅤ:A brief Introduction of Guiyang City real estate price fluctuations of the countermeasures and
suggestions.
Innovation of this article:In view of the majority of existing research results are from a macro point of view
of our country real estate price analysis,this article of Guiyang City real estate prices cause fluctuations in the
empirical analysis,research methods at up to the number of model the form of quantitative real estate prices will
affect the real estate prices and other market factorsshould be defined as variables and independent variables;At
the same time,this article also use non-market factors in the theory of Guiyang City real estate price volatilityanalysis,that is the form of qualitative description.By observing the causal relationship between them to look for
changes between its inherent laws,as the real estate industry provide the basis for policy formulation.In view of
the main body for a particular(such as a city)real estate prices to run the research is still very limited,so this study
on a specific object must also show innovative.
In this paper,through field surveys to collect information at a large number of investigations and studies
based on theoretical research and empirical studies combining focus on the current status of Guiyang City and the
real estate industry issues and to conduct a comprehensive collation of information,analysis of the basic on the
Guiyang City real estate prices cause fluctuations in theoretical and empirical research and analysis,and give the
relevant countermeasures.
Key Words：Real estate price;;Real estate enterprise;;Volatility;;Driving force目录
1导论······························································································································································6
1.1选题背景及研究意义····························································································································6
1.1.1选题背景·········································································································································6
1.1.2研究意义·········································································································································6
1.2理论综述················································································································································8
1.2.1国外研究现状·································································································································9
1.2.2国内研究现状·································································································································10
1.3研究内容和方法····································································································································12
1.3.1研究内容·········································································································································12
1.3.2研究方法·········································································································································12
1.4本论文研究的目的及创新点·················································································································13
1.4.1研究目的·········································································································································13
1.4.2创新点·············································································································································13
房地产价格波动的基本理论综述················································································································14
2.1房地产价格的含义及特征·····················································································································14
2.2房地产价格波动的市场因素·················································································································15
2.2.1房地产市场波动的供给因素··········································································································15
2.2.2房地产价格波动的需求因素··········································································································15
2.2.3房地产价格波动的供求因素··········································································································16
2.3房地产价格波动的非市场因素·············································································································17
2.3.1地租理论·········································································································································17
2.3.2消费者的心理预期理论··················································································································17
2.3.3国家宏观调控政策·························································································································18
2.3.4 2008年金融危机·····························································································································18
贵阳市房地产价格波动的现状及问题········································································································20
3.1中国房地产价格波动的大背景·············································································································20
3.1.1中国房地产价格波动的现状··········································································································20
3.1.2中国房地产价格波动的问题··········································································································21
3.2贵阳市房地产价格波动的现状及问题·································································································23
3.2.1贵阳市房地产价格波动的现状······································································································23
3.2.2贵阳市房地产价格波动的问题······································································································25
价格波动理论的实证—贵阳市房地产市场································································································27
4.1供求理论对贵阳市房地产市场价格波动的分析··················································································27
4.1.1一般理论分析·································································································································27
4.1.2实证数量分析·································································································································28
4.2非市场因素对贵阳市房地产市场价格波动的分析··············································································34
4.2.1地租理论对贵阳市房地产价格波动的影响分析···········································································34
4.2.2消费者预期理论对贵阳市房地产价格波动的影响分析································································35
4.2.3国家宏观调控政策对贵阳市房地产价格的导向作用····································································374.2.4 2008年金融危机对贵阳市房地产价格波动的冲击·······································································38
4.3贵阳市房地产价格未来走势的预期·····································································································39
5贵阳市房地产价格波动的对策与建议········································································································41
5.1调整和改善住房供求结构·····················································································································41
5.2加大土地供应调控力度························································································································41
5.3贯彻和落实宏观调整政策·····················································································································42
5.4加大消费者购房的贷款支持·················································································································43
5.5正确引导潜在购房者的消费需求·········································································································43
5.6削弱金融危机对房地产市场的负面影响······························································································44
参考文献··························································································································································46
发表论文与科研情况说明·······························································································································48
后记··································································································································································49
1导论
1. 1选题背景及研究意义
1. 1. 1选题背景
1998年，我国结束福利分房制，开始实行货币化分房，成为房地产业走向市场
化的分水岭。从此，我国的房地产市场迅速发展，对拉动内需，加快城市化进程，促
进国民经济增长，起到了重大作用。经过十多年的发展，房地产业已成为我国第三产
业中的主要产业之一。〔门国家统计局日前公布的数据显示，房地产业增加值占我国
国内生产总值(GDP)比重超过50}，在国民经济发展中发挥了支柱产业的重要作用。
}z}然而，受到美国金融危机的冲击，我国的房地产业也出现了一些新问题，比较突
出的有:房地产开发投资增幅放缓、商品房价格不断波动、住房结构失衡等等。
面对住房结构失衡严重、价格不断波动的城市住房市场，为了保持房地产业稳定
和健康发展，我国政府相继出台并实施了一系列的宏观调控措施，土地、信贷、税收、
规划多管齐下，对房地产市场的发展起到了一定的积极作用。
但是，房地产的价格一直处于变化中，并且有不断波动的趋势，成为影响我国社
会经济和群众生活的重大问题。房地产价格是个较为复杂的问题，涉及到的因素有社
会的(比如供需关系)、经济的(比如住宅租金)，政策的(比如国家宏观经济政策、
货币政策)等等。贵阳市作为贵州省的省会城市，其房地产价格在西部欠发达地区的
城市中一直处于较高的位置，其价格与一些经济发展情况要远远好过贵阳市的城市比
齐，成为各界十分关注的一个现象。在这方面己有许多讨论，主要是政策层面上和市
场经营层面的，基于贵阳市房地产业的实证创新研究，仍然有许多尚待调查研究的问
题。鉴于此，本文的研究分析成果就显得更具有理论上和现实上的意义。
1. 2研究意义
本文研究意义可以从理论和实践两个方面进行阐述:
1.理论意义
从理论的角度来说，根据产业经济学、发展经济学的相关原理，一个国家的城市
房价与该国所处经济发展阶段密切相关，不同经济发展时期的房地产价格有不同的表
现特点，一般情况下，经济越是发展，房地产的价格就越能够形成与经济整体的联动
关系。特别是当前国家金融危机中，房地产成为一个十分敏感的产业。比如:受到美
国金融危机的打击，美国两大官方按揭融资机构房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美
(Freddie Mac)财政出现严重经济困难，濒临破产。据统计，两家公司拥有或提供担
保的抵押贷款的总值约为5万亿美元，相当于全美12万亿美元房屋抵押贷款债务的
近一半。由于房利美和房地美在美国当前楼市乃至经济整体中所扮演的重要角色，他
们的危机引起了布什政府的高度关注。isl
改革开放30年，尽管我国房地产业有了长足的进展，但我国目前仍处于经济发
展中对于房地产需求的“刚性和弹性”与“投资和投机”并存的特别时期，城市居民
对住房的需求面临巨大的增长空间的同时，房地产市场的投资效用也日益显现。因此，
对城市住房价格波动的动因分析是我国现阶段经济、社会发展和当前对付世界性金融
危机的客观反映和必然要求。
具体到某个城市的房地产价格运行情况看，本文拟建立特定的数量模型，根据影
响价格变动的一些变量，来从数量上讨论房地产价格变动的机理。影响房地产价格波
动的因素可能有多种形式。首先，供求关系影响房地产价格，供求关系的变化是影响
房价变化的主要原因;其次，房地产价格的波动又不仅仅受到供求因素的影响，它在
受到供求关系影响的同时，还会受到其它一些变量(如国家宏观调控政策、租金、消
费者的心理预期、城市居民人均可支配收入等)的影响，这些变量可能是随机的，也
可能是人为控制的，这种影响在理论上可能会成为一个难以监控的因素，这在理论上
是需要深入探索的。因此，本文在理论上可能面临一些新的需要突破的难点，需要采
用更加综合的方法来进行分析和研究，从而深化本文的理论意义。
2、实践意义
从实践的角度来说，房地产业是我国国民经济的基础性、先导性产业。住房既是
生活和生产的必需品，同时也是一种资产或者说财富。房地产的价格既关系到一般老
百姓的生活和生产问题，也关系到城市发展潜力和竞争力，更关系到