2024年全球房地产泡沫指数（英）.pdf

UBS Global Real Estate Bubble IndexSeptember 2024|Chief Investment Office GWM|Investment research2UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2024 3 Editorial 4 Key results 5 Catching breath 7 Regions13 Benchmarks15 Spotlights22 Overview23 Methodology&dataUBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index This report has been prepared by UBS Switzerland AG,UBS AG Singapore Branch,UBS AG Hong Kong Branch,UBS AG London Branch and UBS Financial Services Inc.(UBS FS).Please see the important disclaimer at the end of the document.Past performance is not an indication of future returns.Editor in Chief Matthias HolzheyAuthors Matthias HolzheyMaciej SkoczekClaudio SaputelliKatharina Hofer Thomas RiederRegional contributors Jonathan Woloshin(US)Dean Turner(London)Wen Ching Lee(Singapore)Matteo Ramenghi(Milan)Ronaldo Patah(So Paulo)Fahd Iqbal(Dubai)Editorial deadline 23 September 2024Design CIO Content DesignCover photoGetty ImagesLanguage EnglishContactubs-cio-Subscribe Electronic subscription is also available via Investment Views on the UBS e-banking platform.Content3UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2024Dear reader,Youd be forgiven for thinking that global housing markets currently seem like the playground of central banks.Since the financial crisis in 2008,money supply has expanded rapidly and interest rates have been loweredoften into negative territoryas the merest whiff of economic turmoil appeared on the horizon.When the economy was running smoothly again,interest rates were hardly raised.Consequently,the price development of residential real estate was often a one-way street.As a result,housing bubble risk reached record highs in many global metropolitan areas.The rise in interest rates,for a long time considered unlikely,came with the post-pandemic inflation spike.Housing prices reset where high imbalances had accumu-lated.Homes in major European cities lost up to a quarter of their value in real terms and imbalances corrected rapidly.Real estate bubble risk has also fallen considerably in cities where home values have shown relative stability during the interest rate turnaround like Sydney and Vancouver,since extreme housing shortages and rising rents helped stabilize markets there.Unintentionally,central banks have meanwhile laid the foundation for the next price boom.Since the sharp rise in interest rates thwarted the plans of many real estate developers,new construction has nosedived in many cities and looks set to exacer-bate the housing shortage,thereby leading to upward price pressure in the future.In this edition of the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index,discover more about grow-ing,existing,and deflating bubble risks and where interest rate cuts should help revi-talize the housing market.We wish you an engaging read.EditorialClaudio SaputelliHead Swiss&Global Real EstateChief Investment Office GWMMatthias HolzheySenior Real Estate EconomistChief Investment Office GWM4UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2024Reshuffling of risksImbalances have declined in Europe,remained stable in Asia-Pacific,and increased in the US.While Miami tops the bubble risk ranking this year,Dubai has recorded the highest risk increase since mid-2023.Housing shortageBuilding permits have been declining in most cities amid deteriorating financing conditions.Real rents have accelerated in a majority of cities and increased by more than 5%on average over the last two years.Bursting bubblesWhere high imbalances accumulated,real house prices have shed 20%since mid-2021.This compares to a correction of 2%on average for all other cities in the study.The tide is turningWith financing costs set to become more attractive,housing demand is bot-toming out and prices should accelerate.Economic growth will be crucial in deter-mining the price dynamics.Correction overAverage real house prices increased by 2%compared to last summer.But,price changes were uneven:While real prices in Paris and Hong Kong fell by 10%,Warsaw and Dubai recorded double-digit increases.Market freezeBuyers can afford 40%less living space than in 2021,before interest rates increased.As a result,fewer properties are being bought,apparent in sharply lower growth of outstanding mortgage volumes.StockholmFrankfurtMunichZurichMilanMadridDubaiSingaporeSydneyHong KongTokyoGenevaBostonNew York Los AngelesSan FranciscoVancouverParisTorontoMiamiLondonAmsterdam1.670.740.590.780.640.321.510.540.410.200.351.000.560.750.981.031.791.170.370.770.480.780.69Tel AvivHigh(1.5)Bubble risk scores,2024Elevated(1.0 to 1.5)Moderate(0.5 to 1.0)Low(1.5)Elevated(1.0 to 1.5)Low(0.5)UBS Global Real Estate Bubble IndexBubble risk scores for the housing markets of select cities,2024Source:UBS For an explanation,see the section on Methodology&data on page 23.Moderate(0.5 to 1.0)1.79?1.67?1.51?1.17?1.03?1.00?0.98?0.78?0.78?0.77?0.75?0.74?0.69?0.59?0.56?0.54?0.48?0.41?0.37?0.35?0.32?0.23?0.20?0.64?0.04?0.00.51.01.5?Bubble risk score change vs.2023Catching breathCatching breath6UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2024No affordability,no panicThe financially affordable living space for a skilled service-sector worker is,on average,40%less than in 2021,before the rise in global interest rates.Current price lev-els thus seem far from sustainable at prevailing interest rate levelsespecially in markets with high homeowner-ship rates such as Toronto or Los Angeles.However,a significant deterioration in affordability does not necessarily cause a strong price correction,as seen in Sydney,Vancouver,Madrid,and some cities in the US.Homeowners are reluctant to sell at a loss and the incen-tive to stay put increases further if the current home has been favorably financed.With declining transaction vol-umes,apparent in sharply lower growth of outstanding mortgage volumes,prices can continue to rise,even if overall underlying demand has decreased significantly.Housing shortage saves the dayAn increasing housing shortage,reflected in rising rents,has also helped stabilize many urban housing markets.Real rents have increased by 5%on average over the last two years and have outpaced income growth in most cases.In a majority of cities,rents have even accelerated almost everywhere else in the last four quarters.This has contributed to lower bubble risk scores globally.No relief to the housing shortage is likely from the supply side,as high interest rates and increased building costs have severely hampered housing construction.Building permits have declined in most cities over the past two years.Looking forward,the housing shortage is likely to become a bigger challenge,making city living even less affordable.However,for existing homeowners and espe-cially for buy-to-let investors,this may represent only seemingly good news as housing shortages often lead to political intervention in the housing marketwith unpre-dictable consequences.Relief in sightThe momentum in the housing market is set to improve.Rising rents underpin demand for home ownership in urban areas.Falling interest rates will shift the user-cost advantage sharply back from renting to buying.First-time homebuyers would return to the market as affordability improves.In our view,real house prices in many cities have bottomed out.The economic outlook will likely determine whether prices once again surge or track sideways.101505105DubaiWarsawMiamiAmsterdamTokyoVancouverMadridSingaporeZurichSydneyMilanSo PauloLos AngelesTel AvivBostonNew YorkSan FranciscoGenevaTorontoLondonFrankfurtStockholmMunichParisHong Kong2023 2024Last 4 quartersLast 5 yearsBubble risk assessmentRising prices in the majority of citiesReal house price growth,annualized in%Source:See the section on Methodology&data on page 23.7UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2024Eurozone Both Frankfurt and Munich displayed a very high risk of a housing bubble as recently as 2022.Since then,rising mort-gage rates have seen both markets tumble,with house prices falling by one fifth since their respective peaks.As rents and incomes remained firm,the risk of a real estate bubble has declined to moderate(see spotlight Frankfurt p.18).The cor-rection has been losing steam in the last four quarters.Lower expected interest rates paired with low supply should see a recovery in prices.However,a new boom is unlikely in the near future,in our view.Backed by falling mortgage rates and strong international demand,real prices increased in Paris by 30%between 2015 and 2020.Stretched affordability and short supply of larger flats for families weighed on the citys attractiveness.Out-migration has reduced the population by 6%within the last 10 years.Additional lending restrictions,higher mortgage rates,and a property tax hike throttled demand.In real terms,prices have corrected by more than 20%since 2021.With a 10%decline over the last four quarters,Paris was the weakest European housing market among all cities in the study.The bubble risk is currently low.Home prices in Milan have continued to outperform the national average.A robust economy,new developments,and a favorable tax regime have supported housing demand.How-ever,in inflation-adjusted terms,prices and rents remain at 2018 levels.As a result of higher financing costs,mortgage growth has slowed down.Overall,bubble risk is low.In addi-tion to solid prospects for the local economy,an extension of the underground railway,and the upcoming 2026 Olympic Winter Games may have a positive impact on the market.The bubble risk in Madrids housing market has increased compared to last year but is moderate.Although real prices are still 25%below their all-time peak in 2007,the housing market in the Spanish capital has decoupled from the rest of the country over the past few years.Strong household forma-tion and investment demand intensified the housing shortage.Real rents increased by 15%over the last four quarters.Hence,home prices increased by 5%between mid-2023 and mid-2024,despite unfavorable financing conditions.Between 2012 and 2022,real house prices in Amsterdam doubled,decoupling from other Dutch regions and the local rental market,propelling the bubble risk to high territory.Worsening financing conditions,inflation diminishing house-holds purchasing power and their willingness to buy a home,and the reduction of the gift allowance for home ownership exacerbated the situation.A higher transfer tax and prohibi-tion of renting out after the purchase worsened conditions for investors,too.As a consequence,real prices fell by 15%between 2022 and 2023.But on the back of scarce supply,robust income growth,and lower mortgage rates,the market bottomed out quickly.Real prices are now 7%higher than a year ago and the bubble risk is moderate.2.51.50.50.51.5Source:UBS8488929600040812162024FrankfurtMunichAmsterdam#N/A#N/ASource:UBS8488929600040812162024MadridMilanParishighelevatedmoderatelowRegionsHistorical development of index scoresRegions8UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2024Rest of EuropeLondons housing market has shed a quarter of its value since its all-time peak in 2016.As inflation fell and the Bank of Eng-land decreased interest rates,real housing prices stabilized.More rate cuts are expected,which could revive demand for home purchases,especially since rents are also on the rise.The skies appear cloudier on the prime market where uncertainty over unfavorable taxation schemes for the wealthy threatens to undermine demand in this segment.Overall,the risk of a real estate bubble is low,in our view(see spotlight London p.21).Buying owner-occupied real estate in Zurich now costs close to 25 percent more than five years ago.The demand for housing is steadily growing as Zurichs population has consistently increased by well over one percent annually over the last decade,except during the two pandemic years.Zurich has seen one of the high-est rent increases of all the cities in the study over the last four quarters.Consequently,the risk of a real estate bubble has decreased but is still considered high(see spotlight Zurich p.17).Since the pandemic,prices in Geneva have risen only half as much as in Zurich.They are about 10%higher in real terms than five years ago,but have stagnated over the last four quar-ters.The city of Geneva recorded the strongest population growth since 2015,ending a three-year period of stagnation.Although construction activity has hardly slowed in the region in recent quarters,it cannot keep pace with the strengthened demand.Accordingly,rents in Geneva have risen more sharply than incomes over the last four quarters.The real estate bubble risk has declined and is now just barely in the elevated zone.Between 2009 and 2021,falling mortgage rates boosted demand for owner-occupied homes in Stockholm,causing real housing prices to rise by about 90%,outpacing local incomes and rents.Excessive housing valuations combined with high household debt and variable-rate mortgages turned out to be a dangerous mix.Rising interest rates and a weak local economy caused demand to plummet and triggered a sharp price correction.Over the last three years,real prices have fallen by almost 30%.For now,the bubble risk is low,and the correction is losing steam.Demand for owner-occu-pied housing is likely to rise again as affordability improves.The overregulated and undersupplied rental market is not a viable alternative for many prospective owners.Real house prices in Warsaw surged nearly 30%between 2012 and 2022.Strong employment prospects,subway expansions,and modern housing developments kept the mar-ket attractive for new residents and buy-to-let investors.How-ever,Polands capital has become increasingly unaffordable.Higher mortgage rates led to a real price drop of roughly 10%in 2022.A new government-sponsored subsidy program trig-gered another buying frenzy.Prices have risen by over 15%since early 2023.In the first half of 2024,many buyers were looking to even more generous subsidies,but these have not been forthcoming.Consequently,price dynamics are likely to slow in the coming quarters.8488929600040812162024LondonStockholmWarsaw2.51.50.50.51.5Source:UBSSource:UBS8488929600040812162024highelevatedmoderatelowZurichGenevaHistorical development of index scoresRegions9UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2024United StatesThe home ownership market in the US suffers from increasing unaffordability as the median monthly mortgage payment as a percentage of median household income is well above that experienced during the peak of the 2006/2007 housing bub-ble.As a large share of all US single-family homes has no mortgage or low,locked,longer-term mortgage contracts,we believe many potential buyers are waiting for more attractive mortgage rates.As a result,fewer properties are being sold.This keeps the supply tight and supports property prices.Infla-tion-adjusted prices increased by 2%between mid-2023 and mid-2024 on average in all analyzed US cities.With more interest rate cuts on the horizon,affordability will improve,and transaction activity should increase.Move-up buyers are also likely to accept slightly im