2024年国家能源政策报告（英）.pdf

State of Energy Policy 2024 The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,13 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.IEA member countries:Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea LithuaniaLuxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Spain Sweden Switzerland Republic of TrkiyeUnited Kingdom United States The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraineSource:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.org State of Energy Policy 2024 PAGE|1 Key findings IEA.CC BY 4.0.Key findings State of Energy Policy 2024 PAGE|2 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Key findings Key findings The last four years unleashed a wave of new energy policies that addressed pressing energy security concerns and accelerated the uptake of clean energy.The global economic crunch triggered by the Covid19 pandemic prompted governments to launch new recovery and relief packages,with many prioritising clean energy transitions.Close to 150 countries-covering close to 95%of global greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions set forth new,more ambitious climate commitments,leading about 50 governments to tighten energy efficiency,renewables and emissions standards alongside these new incentives for clean energy.Since 2020,clean energy investment grew 60%globally.Energy security has prominently reemerged as a priority for policymakers.Russias invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to energy price spikes globally,highlighting the risks posed to interconnected energy systems.Countries were reminded anew of traditional energy security concerns,while the shift to clean energy brought forth new ones,particularly in terms of supply chain concentration of key technologies and the critical minerals essential to their production.Disruptions to trade routes amid growing geopolitical tensions and climate-induced extreme weather are complicating the situation,exposing energy systems to new vulnerabilities.More than ever,countries are having to consider and adopt new approaches to balance the interconnected goals of sustainability,affordability,competitiveness and security.Against this backdrop,the IEA has produced its inaugural edition of State of Energy Policy.Intended as a first-of-its-kind global inventory,this annual publication provides users with the most comprehensive up-to-date energy policies by countries and sectors,highlighting the most substantial changes in the preceding 12 months.It draws upon the expertise,insights,and review of numerous international experts,to compile more than 5 000 policy records across 50 key policy types from more than 60 countries,all available in a public database,the Energy Policy Inventory.Distinct trends emerge from this comprehensive review as to the types of policy governments use to bridge the gaps to their long-term pledges while ensuring energy security,and where these policies have gained traction.Government incentives for clean energy grew to unprecedented levels,and are now a major driver for rising clean energy investment.Since 2020,governments have earmarked almost USD 2 trillion in direct investment support for clean energy nearly triple the amount committed to clean energy in response to the 2007-08 financial crisis.Some 80%of this earmarked funding is concentrated in just three regions:China,the European Union and the United States.Many measures are framed as efforts to boost clean technology deployment and to secure positions in emerging industries that promise to be major future sources of growth and State of Energy Policy 2024 PAGE|3 Key findings IEA.CC BY 4.0.employment.New spending measures continue to be approved.In the first half of 2024 alone,more than 40 countries earmarked clean energy support,totalling to USD 290 billion.Government interventions to manage energy prices peaked in 2022,but affordability remains a key concern.Price spikes prompted by Russias invasion of Ukraine pushed total end-use expenditure on energy to a record high in 2022 USD 10 trillion.Short-term consumer support directly from governments totalled USD 940 billion,mainly concentrated in Europe,while other pricing regulations instituted by governments amounted to USD 2.4 trillion worth of fossil fuel subsidies accruing since 2022.Prices have since declined and government have rolled back most emergency provisions.Still,all G20 countries maintain programmes that provide affordability support to certain consumers.Such programmes benefit from targeting households most in need to manage fiscal burdens and ensure a fair distribution of costs and benefits a task that only one-third of the emergency measures achieved.Securing clean energy supply chains has become a key priority,prompting use of diverse policy measures from direct incentives to trade policy.Geographical concentrations within clean energy supply chains remains higher than fossil fuel supply.Across key technologies solar PV,wind,battery,and electrolyser at least 80%of manufacturing capacity is concentrated within the top three producing countries.This renders global supply chains vulnerable to disruptions,whether due to policy changes in individual countries,natural disasters,technical failures or corporate decisions.Recent policies and strategies have designated key clean energy technologies and related commodities to be of strategic importance,proposing requirements or targets for minimum shares of domestic manufacturing.Recent notable examples the United States Defence Production Act and the European Unions Net Zero Industry Act,however other countries have introduced similar policies and targets.Additionally,government direct support available to domestic manufacturers of these technologies climbed to USD 170 billion globally in the last four years nearly 10%of total government energy spending mobilised across that period.The largest portion of these incentives is going to electric vehicles(EVs),followed by hydrogen and batteries production,along with critical minerals refining and production.Since 2020,around 70%of this earmarked support was concentrated in advanced economies and China,although new spending is being mobilised in other emerging manufacturing hubs,such as Brazil,India and Malaysia.Since 2020,sharp rise is evident in trade measures relating to clean technology supply chains.Over the past 25 years,the number of new trade measures targeting batteries,solar PV,EVs,wind turbines and electrolysers has increased steadily.Since 2020,countries implemented nearly 200 trade policies targeting clean energy technology,whereas only 40 such initiatives were implemented in the preceding 5 years.Often,the largest importers and exporters of these technologies are at the forefront of these changes in trade rules,which may well have implications for clean technology supply chains,innovation,competition and economic efficiency.Tariff adjustments,anti-dumping duties and countervailing State of Energy Policy 2024 PAGE|4 Key findings IEA.CC BY 4.0.measures(including those recently announced by the European Union and the United States),account for close to 40%of policy changes since 2020.In that same period,around 50 new free trade agreements were signed,of which nearly 90%still extended preferential tariffs to clean energy technologies.Energy performance regulations now cover three-quarters of global energy-related emissions.As of 2024,fifteen G20 countries have energy performance regulations in place covering each key energy sector power,industry,buildings transportation,and fuel supply.This is a substantial change from just a few decades ago.In 2000,only 5%of industrial motors were covered by energy performance standards;now over 50%are.Since 2020,half of G20 countries have updated building energy codes,affecting 70%of their sector emissions.Since 2023,35 countries representing one-fifth of energy-sector CO2 emissions passed new energy regulations.Among the most impactful updates to energy regulations include the latest fuel-economy and emissions standards for passenger cars and trucks,as well as new regulations for GHG emissions from fossil fuel-fired power plants in the United States.Several major firsts also warrant mention:Australia added its very first fuel efficiency standard for vehicles,the European Union introduced regulations on climate-forcing refrigerants used in appliances(so-called fluorinated greenhouse gases F-gas regulations);and Ukraine established its first-ever biofuel blending mandate,set to start in 2025.Some policies were rolled back since 2020,but their impact was smaller than the increased stringency elsewhere.Notable rollbacks or delays were applied to proposed regulations banning the sale of new fossil fuel boilers in buildings and of internal combustion engines(ICE)vehicles,and on phase-out of unabated coal.Such adjustments were largely motivated by the energy crisis and public concerns.The replacement regulations either delayed the start date for compliance or relaxed the proposed policy stringency.Regulations that were rollbacked and delayed policies in 2023 covered around 1%of current global emissions.Still,substantial leeway exists to advance coverage,stringency and enforcement of these policies.Around one-quarter of global energy growth to 2030 is projected to occur in unregulated sectors,and in most countries,the least efficient appliances legally sold are at least 40%less efficient than the“best-in-class”equivalent in that region.Additionally,rising policy coverage does not necessarily imply near-term impact.Some policies naturally come with some time-lag most fuel economy standards are updated every 4 5 years and aim to give industry a 10 15-year time horizon to comply but a lack of enforcement of these standards can also diminish their impact.For instance,while 90%of fossil fuel production is now subject to one or more regulations targeting fugitive methane,energy-sector methane emissions still climbed by 3%last year.Current Nationally Determined Contributions target reducing energy-sector CO2 emissions to 32 Mt by 2030,with updated NDCs expected in 2025.The IEAs Climate Pledges Explorer State of Energy Policy 2024 PAGE|5 Key findings IEA.CC BY 4.0.assesses the energy component of all NDCs and long-term climate ambitions and finds that current NDCs fall short of what is needed to hit long-term climate objectives.With Paris Agreement signatories set to submit new NDCs targets in 2025 State of Energy Policy 2024 can help highlight which policies have proven effective,and where they can be expanded.Many recent energy policies show clear potential to advance climate mitigation in the energy sector.But they must also fit local contexts,and ensure security,competitiveness and affordability.The IEA remains committed to monitoring and providing the latest energy policy data to governments and the public,as we collectively chart a path to a secure and sustainable energy future.State of Energy Policy 2024 PAGE|6 Key findings IEA.CC BY 4.0.Countries covering one-third of energy-related CO2 emissions earmarked new clean energy spending last year;those representing one-fifth of emissions adopted new energy regulations Global CO2 emissions covered by changes in policy between June 2023 and September 2024(%)Climate ambition Government spending on CETs Regulations IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:CET=clean energy technology.One tile represents 1%of global energy-related CO2 emissions.Change in climate ambition reflects changes in stringency of NDCs or of net-zero targets.Change in CET government spending highlights countries that increased(between 2023 and 2024)their earmarked spending linked to energy-related emissions.Change in regulation tracks a change in policy to address sectoral CO2 emissions,with more details provided in the sectoral scorecards later in this report.1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%Legend:11%12%13%14%15%16%17%18%19%20%11%12%13%14%15%16%17%18%19%20%11%12%13%14%15%16%17%18%19%20%No change in existing policies21%22%23%24%25%26%27%28%29%30%21%22%23%24%25%26%27%28%29%30%21%22%23%24%25%26%27%28%29%30%31%32%33%34%35%36%37%38%39%40%31%32%33%34%35%36%37%38%39%40%31%32%33%34%35%36%37%38%39%40%Change set to decrease emissions41%42%43%44%45%46%47%48%49%50%41%42%43%44%45%46%47%48%49%50%41%42%43%44%45%46%47%48%49%50%51%52%53%54%55%56%57%58%59%60%51%52%53%54%55%56%57%58%59%60%51%52%53%54%55%56%57%58%59%60%Withdrawal or postponement61%62%63%64%65%66%67%68%69%70%61%62%63%64%65%66%67%68%69%70%61%62%63%64%65%66%67%68%69%70%71%72%73%74%75%76%77%78%79%80%71%72%73%74%75%76%77%78%79%80%71%72%73%74%75%76%77%78%79%80%No known policy or not covered81%82%83%84%85%86%87%88%89%90%81%82%83%84%85%86%87%88%89%90%81%82%83%84%85%86%87%88%89%90%91%92%93%94%95%96%97%98%99%100%91%92%93%94%95%96%97%98%99%100%91%92%93%94%95%96%97%98%99%100%State of Energy Policy 2024 PAGE|7 Key findings IEA.CC BY 4.0.Governments continue to allocate more long-term investment support to clean energy,with over USD 2 trillion in fresh allocations since 2020 Earmarked government support for clean energy investment and consumer energy affordability measures by budget allocation year IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Earmarked government spending shows planned disbursements and indicative forward-looking spending across budget timelines as validated between 2020 and H1/2024.These estimates do not translate into disbursement projections up to 2030,as it is expected that governments will route more spending packages through annual approval processes.100 200 300 400 500 60020202021202220232024202520262027202820292030Earmarked planneddisbursmentsIndicative forward-looking spendingClean energy investment supportShort-term affordability supportBillion USD(2023,MER)State of Energy Policy 2024 PAGE|8 Key findings IEA.CC BY 4.0.Trade policies related to key clean energy technologies sharply increased in the early 2020s Cumulative new trade policies covering clean technologies,2015-H1/2024 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Each count indicates a single instance of a trade measure impacting solar PV,wind turbines,batteries,EVs,heat pumps or electrolysers,and their components.This includes EVs and battery cells,anode and cathode;solar PV modules,cells,wafers and polysilicon;wind nacelles and blades;heat pumps and electrolysers.Any measure th