赢在全渠道：在重塑的零售业寻找增长点(英文版).pdf

IS SUE 2|J UNE 2018OVERCOMING ZERO GROWTHCHANNEL STRATEGYGLOBAL GROWTH FORMATSWINNING MNICHANNELFINDING GROWTH IN REINVENTED RETAILCONTENTS03 OVERCOMING ZERO 04 OMNICHANNEL:A GLOBAL PICTURE 06 DEFINING CHANNEL STRATEGY 08 GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS 10 NEW GROWTH FORMATS:E-COMMERCE 12 NEW GROWTH FORMATS:DISCOUNTERS 13 FORECAST 14 WHERE TO FIND GROWTH 15 CREDITS2Theres no way of hiding it:growth has become more difficult for fast-moving consumer goods(FMCG)brands and retailers.Just 1.9%was added to the global value of the FMCG industry last year,and theres a disconnect between its growth and that of gross domestic product(GDP)which saw an increase of around 4%during the same period.As such,zero has become the watchword for the FMCG industry globally.Zero-based growth on the assumption that growth will remain generally flat in volume in the coming years is the starting point for many.Growth is at the heart of brands and retailers strategies.OVERCOMING ZERO:FINDING GROWTH IN FMCGGlobal GDP versus Global FMCG value growth7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%2012201320142015201620172018Global FMCGGlobal Real GDP In this publication we will explore global FMCG and retail trends,looking at how to drive growth through different lenses:geographies,targets,and type of brands,whether local or global,branded or private.We will assess the impact of channels including e-commerce and discounters the two fastest-growing channels last year.We will provide an extended vision of areas including out-of-home(OOH),and how the FMCG trade will continue to change in the coming years with the O+O(online and offline)proposition.At Kantar Worldpanel,we provide a complete picture of FMCG performance across all channels;a unique understanding of where to find growth.Source Kantar Worldpanel,International Monetary Fund3INTRODUCTIONOMNICHANNEL:A GLOBAL PICTUREThe retail industry continues to undergo significant changes.The impact of technology is clear for all to see,and shopper behaviour has become more difficult to predict.USA:+0.5%1.9%9.9%88.2%LATIN AMERICA+7.3%55%0.1%44.9%Modern tradeTraditional and othersE-commerceRetailers and manufacturers have been forced to reinvent themselves to remain relevant in this new environment.Growth is harder than ever before.While we saw a slight recovery in 2017,with growth at 1.9%,the long-term trend since 2012 has been a slowing down of growth for the FMCG industryand we forecast that this will continue in 2018 and beyond.FMCG growth outpaced that of GDP for many years,but the scenario we now face is one where the former is far below the latter.In fact,GDP grew almost twice as quickly as the FMCG industry in 2017,and the gap is likely to grow.GLOBAL:+1.9%5.8%61.8%32.4%Since 2012 the FMCG industry has been slowing downand we forecast that this will continue in 2018 and beyond.4OMNICHANNEL:A GLOBAL PICTUREDEMAND GENERATION IS A GLOBAL PROBLEMUndoubtedly,the industry is under pressurethe cause of which can be grouped into three equally challenging areas:A changing global population Population growth is slowing globally.And this will continueto the extent that,by 2030,growth is predicted to be just 0.9%.On top of this,we have an ageing population.There were 600 million people aged over 60 in 2000,900 in 2015 a 50%increase and more than two billion global citizens are predicted to be over 60 by 2050.Trading down People are spending less on FMCG.As we will explore in this paper,discounters are growing in popularity,while promotions are prevalent across markets.AFRICA:+8.8%76%24%WESTERN EUROPE+2.2%85.6%8.8%5.6%ASIA:+4.3%7.3%40.9%51.8%FMCG value share by channel and annual growth in 2017Source:Kantar Worldpanel Private label brands are also being chosen over established counterparts more oftenespecially in the USA and Western Europe.Frequency On average,shoppers around the world are making fewer trips to purchase FMCG products.We can see that this figure is decreasing rapidly in all regions every year.Globally,in 2015,shoppers made an average of 185 trips per yeartoday,that figure has fallen to 178.The result of all of this is stagflationwith demand for FMCG goods remaining stagnant.FLAT EVOLUTION IS THE NORMWestern Europes 2.2%growth,compared with 2016s 0.3%figure,appears at first glance to be an impressive turnaroundbut the number is skewed by inflation increases that can be in large part attributed to the consequences of Brexit in the UK.The USA the biggest contributor to FMCG spend in the world also saw flat growth in 2017(0.5%).It has a very mature FMCG market,eight times the size of that in the UK and France,and retailers here rely heavily on promotionswhile discounters are rising to prominence and therefore private label brands are growing quickly.Asias growth(4.3%)is boosted by the performance of local brands in India and China as we saw in our most recent Brand Footprint publication and its strength in e-commerce.As well see later in this publication,brands in Asia are successfully merging online and offline experiences.Latin Americas 7.3%growth shows a slowdown in comparison with its 13%increase in 2016.And,like the UK,this growth is skewed by inflationas is the case in Africa and the Middle East,too.5OMNICHANNEL:A GLOBAL PICTUREDEFINING CHANNEL STRATEGYDespite global FMCG growth remaining slow in 2017,retailers and manufacturers that flex their strategies to meet macro-economic changes and shopper needs can still find ways to grow.The three fastest-growing channels globally are e-commerce(+15%),discounters(+5.2%)and cash-and-carry(4.4%).But these figures wont be surprising to the FMCG industry,as we have seen a growing trend towards better shopping experiences,value for money and proximityfactors that can be addressed most effectively through these growing channels.New categories:Healthy living Around the globe,consumers are becoming more health-conscious.With people living longer and having more information at their fingertips,there has been heightened demand for FMCG products that promote healthy living or deliver added health benefits.As a result,there has been a noticeable trend towards fresh produce.Global avocado sales,for example,climbed 11%in the past 12 months.Sales of fresh berries including strawberries,blueberries and raspberries increased by 8%over the same time period.Fresh seafood is another burgeoning areaespecially in Europe and the USA.Sales of fresh seafood grew by 5.9%in Germany,faster than anywhere else in the world.Spain(+5.4%)and France(+5.2%)also displayed strong growth in this categorydriven by the likes of Pescanova in Spain and Petit Navire in France,two of the fastest-growing brands in Europe according to our most recent Brand Footprint ranking.The UK(4.7%)and the USA(2.8%)saw positive growth here,too.The organic food trend is still a niche market globally.However,it has broadened its appeal over the past 12 months.Organic products in Germany,France,Spain and the UK all gained share against fresh foodwith Spain growing the fastest at 26%growth since 2014.+15%E-COMMERCE+5.2%DISCOUNTERS+4.4%CASH-AND-CARRY+2%CONVENIENCE+2%TRADITIONAL+0.8%HYPERS/SUPERSOrganic food value growth since 2014UKGERMANYSPAINFRANCE+8.7%+10.1%+26%+6.2%FMCG global value annual growth in 2017Source Kantar Worldpanel,EuropanelSource:Kantar Worldpanel6DEFINING CHANNEL STRATEGYLocal versus global brandsIn this years Brand Footprint publication,we highlighted the continued march of local brands as they once again won share from their global counterparts in 2017.Local brands adapt more easily to market needs and trends,allowing them to cater to local tastesand we now know that every 0.1%share gained by local brands is worth$500m to the global FMCG industry.This highlights the importance of establishing strong partnerships with local brands.It also shows the power of putting local residents at the heart of the retail experience.In Asia,smaller neighbourhood store formats are bridging the gap between modern and traditional trade,serving as community hubs where shoppers can pay utility bills,buy travel tickets,book concerts and attend social gatherings.As a result,many are delivering strong growth and outpacing hyper-and supermarkets.We see that shoppers generally value local brands for consumables,with an increased desire for locally sourced products at affordable prices.However,it is possible for global brands to connect with local tastes.Lays is currently the fifth-most chosen brand on the planet,and its growth in 2017 showcased exactly how the brand satisfies local consumers.It launched specific flavours in Indonesia Fried Chicken,Spicy Lobster,Pepper&Lime,and Steak variants which helped add five million new shoppers to the brand.This was the strongest example we saw in 2017 of global brands adapting to local needs.The beverages sector also sees global brands perform wellwith global brands winning share from local rivals consistently for the past few years.Reaching the right targetThe behaviour of millennials has become a point of fascination for many FMCG brandsespecially those aggressively targeting this demographic for growth.And,while its common knowledge that their shopping behaviour differs greatly from older generations,the importance of Millennial shoppers for FMCG growth is less understood.In reality,shoppers aged 35 and under represented just 14%of total FMCG spend in 2017showing that the bulk of business is still down to older generations.In fact,the 45-64 age group contributes the most value to FMCG growth in Western Europe,suggesting that retailers and manufacturers should direct more of their marketing budgets to attracting this demographic.However,this of course depends on which channels you are playing in.As we can see in Western Europe,different age groups tend to shop using different channels.Taking the two fastest-growing channels in this market as examples,millennials here are great targets for e-commerce and 35-44-year-olds are the best targets for discounters.Importance of out-of-homeIn Kantar Worldpanels Out of Home:Out of Mind?publication,released earlier this year,we outlined the huge importance of out-of-home(OOH).Across the markets we analysed,we saw that$4 out of every$10 spent on non-alcoholic drinks and snacking is for OOH consumptionalmost doubling the size of the addressable market globally.And yet OOH trends vary significantly in different marketsinfluenced by local customs and cultures,by climate,or simply by the channels available to shoppers.Therefore,retailers and manufacturers in these sectors must recognise and consider OOH purchases if they are to gain a complete market understanding.For many categories,we see that shoppers are increasing OOH spend while that of take-home is decreasingdriven by the nomadism trend that has seen hyper-and supermarkets begin providing additional experiences and options such as in-store cafs.But this is not incremental for OOH spend.Rather,it is shopper choice moving from one channel to anothersomething that needs to carefully considered by FMCG players when designing their growth strategy.7DEFINING CHANNEL STRATEGYGLOBAL MARKET TRENDS UNITED KINGDOM:TOP-UP SHOPPINGAshley Anzie,Business Unit Director,Grocery Retail,Kantar Worldpanel Shopper behaviour in the UK is starting to change.Discounters continue to switch spend away from supermarkets at a rate of 500 million($675 million)per year.With a 12.7%combined market share in the 12 weeks to 22nd April 2018,Aldi and Lidl continue to make ground on their competitors.But scratch the surface and we begin to see a slowdown in growth for this sector.Rates of shopper acquisition are slowing,in line with a slowdown in projected store openings.This presents discounters with a new challenge:how to increase shopper conversion and drive short-term penetration.E-commerce growth has also slowed,from more than 8%in 2017 to under 6%today.Grocery sales online are worth 8 billion annually(7.6%of all UK sales),with 28%of the country making an online food purchase in the past year.The existing weekly shop fulfilment model may have reached a point of saturation,and any future growth will have to be delivered through speed and convenience.This helps explain one of the bigger shopper trends driving the take-home grocery market top-up shopping with nine in 10 shopping trips annually are now made to top up on goods.Top-up shopping also drove more growth in the market than bigger trips(3.9%versus 2.5%)suggesting that this area would be a sensible place to look for brand and retailer growth potential.With merger discussions ongoing between two of the big four supermarkets,the next 12 months in the UK will be a very interesting time.CHINA:THE NEW RETAIL ERA Jason Yu,General Manager,Greater China,Kantar WorldpanelThe Chinese FMCG market showed a clear improvement in 2017,with spend growing 4.3%year-on-year.Modern trade remains the countrys most significant channel(53%of the FMCG market),with the leading retailers getting stronger.E-commerce also reported 29%growth and contributed 8%of total spending in the market.Tech giants Alibaba and Tencent are moving from online to offline.The Tencent/JD camp(including Yonghui,Carrefour,Walmart,WSL and BuBuGao)recently reported 14.6%share higher than the 11.1%recorded by Alibaba(including Sun Art and BaiLian)and the integration of the two brands is set to help accelerate recovery of modern trade by directing consumer traffic back to physical stores and using store networks to deliver to consumers faster and more efficiently.Large-format stores in China are no longer attractive to young,middle-class shoppers.While the Hema model(the supermarket offers fresh food,in-store dining,on-and offline delivery)has been duplicated,unmanned stores are the new favourites with investors.At regional or provincial level,the FMCG market has remained more fragmented than at national level.This indicates that there is plenty of room for cross-provincial expansion and acquisition.On top of its investment in WSL and Hongqi,Yonghui was able to expand its own presence into adjacent provinces where local market leaders currently dominate.Until 2015201620172018Alibaba and Tencent alliance and acquisition8GLOBAL MARKET TRENDSAFRICA&MIDDLE EAST:COMPLEX NEEDSIdriss El Ganari,Business Development Director,AME,Kantar WorldpanelFMCG is growing in Sub-Saharan markets,but we have to keep in mind that inflation and population growth is high.The situation is even more complex in Saudi Arabia,where external elements including the oil market and new laws and taxes are influencing shoppers to purchase less.Retail landscapes in Middle Eastern and Sub-Saharan markets arent comparable.Modern trade is still close to non-existent in Nigeria and Ghana,while it accounts for between 30%and 50%of trade in Kenya and Saudi Arabiawhere Panda dominates with its hypermarkets.In the Ivory Coast,Mauritanian shops are still by far the leading FMCG channel,with close to 50%of the market.Households are shopping at least daily in Ghana,Nigeria and Ivory Coast(betwee