塑造我们的电力未来路线图.pdf

Shaping Our Electricity Future RoadmapA summary of version 1.1Shaping Our Electricity Future Roadmap:A summary of version 1.123July 2023Contents1.WhyarewetalkingaboutIrelandandNorthernIrelandselectricityfuture?72.Whathaschanged?83.Howdoestheelectricitygridwork?104.WhatdoEirGridandSONIdo?105.Whywillweallbeusingmorecleanelectricityinfuture?106.Howwillthegridprepareforcleanelectricity?117.Whatdoesthismeanfortheelectricitygrid?118.Whatarethechallengesofcleanelectricity129.Whodoweneedtoworkwithtoachievethis?1310.Whohavewebeenspeakingto?1411.ShapingOurElectricityFutureRoadmap:thekeycomponents1712.Securityofsupply2513.Beyond20302614.Nextsteps264Shaping Our Electricity Future Roadmap:A summary of version 1.1Roadmap6 upgrades to existing circuits10 new technology projectsprojectsin Ireland16projects inNorthern Ireland32 upgrades to existing circuits1 new substationExpected GenerationNorthern IrelandOnshore:2.45 GW,Oshore:0.5 GW,Solar:0.6 GW,Storage:0.625 GWA plan to deliver 80%renewable energy by 2030 and reduce GHG emissions by 51%from 2018 to 2030.And net zero carbon emissions by 2050.Expected Generation IrelandOnshore:9 GW,Oshore:5 GW(+2 GW for hydrogen),Solar:8 GW,Storage:3.825 GWIreland ApproachGeneration-led approach with aspects of demand-led and technology-ledNorthern Ireland ApproachA balance of all approaches,leaning towards developer-ledMulti-year plans for Engagement,Markets,Operations,NetworksJuly 20235Thegridrequiresunprecedentedchangeintheleadupto2030.ThemainobjectiveoftheShapingOurElectricityFutureRoadmapVersion1.1istooutlinehowwecanmakethegridreadysothat80%ofIrelandsandNorthernIrelandselectricitycancomefromrenewablesources,likethewindandsun,by2030.Thesetargets,andnewlimitstocarbonemissions,aretheproductofupdatestoclimatechangepolicyacrosstheislandin2022.6Shaping Our Electricity Future Roadmap:A summary of version 1.1CoolkeeraghMagherafeltTamnamoreTandrageeKilrootBallycronanBallylumfordCastlereaghHannahstownKellsAhaneKnockrannyEAST TO WESTINTERCONNECTORMOYLEINTERCONNECTORWOODLANDPORTANDUNSTOWNOLDSTREETMONEYPOINTKellisTynaghGreat IslandCullenaghProspectTarbertKilpaddogeArklowBallynahullaSrananaghShannonbridgeCashlaGormanLouthLodgewoodBallyvouskillKillonanFlagfordClashavoonUggoolKnockaloughTurlough HillKnockanureLoguestownColeraineRasharkinLimavadySorne HillTrillickKillymallaghtLisaghmoreSpringtownArdnagapparyLetterkennyTievebrackBinbaneStrabaneMagherakeelTremogeGortDungannonDromoreCreaghNewryBallynahinchBanbridgeWaringstownEnniskillenAghyouleGortaweeAntrimBallymenaLisburnCorraclassyClogherLisdrumDundalkMullagharlinShankillAvraDrybridgePlatinKnockumberNavanTonroeSliabh BawnRichmondArignaStephenstownDunfirthThornsberryBlakeBarodaMullingarAthloneSomersetCloonAthyPortlaoiseCarlowDallowIkerrinThurlesKilkennyAnnerDoonBallydineCahirTipperaryCauteenWexfordDungarvanBarrymoreMallowCharlevilleBrinnyDunmanwayBandonBallylickyCoolroeMacroomKnockearaghOughtraghTraleeTrienNenaghDrumlineSinglandMungretAgannygalSlievecallanTullabrackBanogeCraneCordalKnockacummerGlenlaraBallybegStratfordGalwaySalthillScreebDaltonCastlebarCarrowbegSligoGlenreeMoyBellacorickCorderryRathkealeBaltrasnaKinnegadSealrockCastlefarmAughinishWaterfordKilloteranButlerstownOmaghCarrick-on-ShannonLanesboroGilraEnnisCarrigadrohidMonteenLimerickDrumkeenDrumnakellyClonkeenSlieve KirkBrockaghboyMulreavyGolaghDrumquinCliffCathleens FallMeentycatRathrussanGarvaghTawnaghmoreSrahnakillyCunghillMountLucasCushalingDerryironPollaphucaBallywaterCastledockerallLisheenKill HillShelton AbbeyWoodhouseBoogeraghGarrowCoomagearlaghyGlanleeCoomataggartDromadaAtheaClahaneCloghboolaReamoreArdnacrushaBolltiaghDerrybrienInniscarraKnockrahaAgahdaRaffeenGlanagowLongpointNewbridgeDerrycarneyThornsberryCarrigdanganMeath HillWOODLANDPORTANMaynoothCloneeCorduffFinglasInchicoreHuntsmanNorthwallIrishtownPoolbegShellybanksCarrickminesGrangeDardistownGlasmoreKilmorePoppintreeArtanePelletstownCabraBlackrockPottery RoadCherrywoodFassaroeKilmahudBarnakyleCorkaghTaneyRinawadeRyebrookGriffinrathCitywestFortunestownBancroftCookstownMilltownKilteelMonreadTrinityHaroldsCrossHeuston Sq.MacetownCromcastleNewburyMacDermottNorth QuaysMisery HillWhitebankRingsendCentral ParkWolfe ToneFrancis St.CloughranSnugboroughCollege ParkGrange CastleAirtonBelcampCastlebaggotDarndaleKilrootBallycronanBallylumfordCastlereaghHannahstownKellsLarneRathgaelNewtownardsAntrimGlengormleyCarnmoneyBallymenaFinaghyKnockRosebankLisburnBelfast North MainBelfast CentralCragaghDonegalEdenBallyvallaghKnockrahaAgahdaRaffeenGlanagowLongpointMidletonOld CourtCow CrossCastleviewTrabegLiberty St.MarinaKilbarryBarnahelyHaulbowlineRingaskiddyDublin AreaCork AreaBelfast AreaBelfastDublinCorkLegend400kV Lines275kV Lines220kV Lines110kV Lines220kV Cables110kV CablesInterconnectorHydro GenerationThermal GenerationPumped Storage GenerationWind Generation400kV Stations275kV Stations220kV Stations110kV StationsTransmission Connected GenerationTransmission System Map7July20231.Why are we talking about Ireland andNorthernIrelands electricity future?IrelandandNorthernIrelandwillneedatleastanother19gigawatts(GW)ofelectricityfromcleansourcesifnotmore.Thatsroughlythreetimesasmuchcleanelectricitycomparedtowhatisavailabletoday.Forcontext,oneGWcanproduceenoughelectricitytosupport750,000homes.Thispowerwillhavetobegenerated,connectedtothegrid,anddeliveredthroughouttheisland.IrelandsandNorthernIrelandstransitiontocleanelectricitywillbechallengingbutwillhelpdeliverinvestmentandjobs.Itwillalsomakeusmoreenergyindependentandwillsignificantlyreducethecarbonemissionscausedbyelectricitygeneration.8Shaping Our Electricity Future Roadmap:A summary of version 1.12.What has changed?WepublishedtheShapingOurElectricityFutureRoadmapVersion1.0inNovember2021.Version1.0reflectedtheclimatechangepoliciesofIrelandandNorthernIrelandatthattime.Sincethen,thingshavechanged.2.1Government policyIn Ireland Renewabletargetswereincreasedin2022.80%ofourelectricitymustbeproducedfromrenewablesourcesby2030(upfromthe70%targetthatwasinplacein2021).Carbonbudgetswereintroducedin2022.Thesesetout,infiveyearblocksoftime,alimitforthetotalamountofcarbonemissionsthatIrelandcanemit.Theelectricitysectorisnolongersolelyaimingtoachievea2030target,butnowmustalsodosowithoutexceedingcarbonemissionsacrossfiveyearblocks.TheClimateActionPlan2023(CAP23)sets out the amount of renewable generationrequiredtoachievethe80%renewableelectricityandcarbonemissionstargets.CAP23requiresIrelandtoconnect9GWofonshorewindgeneration,5GWofoffshoregeneration,and8GWofsolarPVgeneration.Italsorequires2GWofoffshorewindgenerationspecificallyfortheproductionofhydrogen(thisgenerationisnotconnectedtothegrid).ComparedtoShapingOurElectricityFutureVersion1.0thisisanincreaseof3.3GWofonshorewindand6.5GWofsolarPVgeneration.Theoffshorewindtargethasnotchanged.InNorthernIreland Renewabletargetswereincreasedin2022.80%oftheelectricityusedmustbefromrenewablesourcesby2030.Toachievethistheamountofoffshorewindconnectedtothegridhasbeenincreasedfrom100MWto500MW.Onshorewindgenerationremainsthesameat2,450MWandsolarPVremainsat600MW.Carbonbudgetswereintroducedin2022.Thesesetout,infiveyearblocksoftime,alimitforthetotalamountofcarbonemissionsthatNorthernIrelandcanemit.Goingforward,wellrefertoIrelandsandNorthernIrelandsclimatechangepoliciescollectivelyastheRenewableAmbition.AchievingtheRenewableAmbitionallowsustoachieveclimateaction.Todothismorerenewable generation needs to be developed.Thisisessentialtoreducethelifethreateningrisksoftheclimatecrisis.92.2An evolving RoadmapWetookonboardextensivefeedbackfromthepublicandindustryonfourdraftapproaches,todevelopasingleplanledapproachthatformedthebasisoftheVersion1.0Roadmap.Version1.1buildsuponthisandconsidersthewholesystem:Transmission network development.Publicandstakeholderengagement.Evolution of system operations.Appropriatelyincentivisingelectricitymarkets.Thisplanledapproachwillsupportthetransition towards the ultimate goal of achievingnetzerocarbonemissionsby2050.Shaping OurElectricity FutureShaping OurElectricity FutureVersion 1.070%renewable electricityVersion 1.180%renewable electricityCarbon budgets10Shaping Our Electricity Future Roadmap:A summary of version 1.13.How does the electricitygridwork?MovinglargeamountsofelectricityaroundIrelandandNorthernIrelandrequiresover9,500kmofoverheadlinesandundergroundcables.Thisisthegridanditsbeensafelybringingpowerfromgeneratorstousersfordecades.Themaponpage6showswhereIrelandandNorthernIrelandgetsitselectricity,andthetransmissionnetworkthatmovesthispowertowhereitsneeded.4.What do EirGrid and SONI do?EirGridandSONIdonotgenerateelectricitywetransportitfromgeneratorsacrossthe grid.We use the grid to supply power directlytolargeenergyusersandtobothESBNetworksandNIENetworks.Theythendistributeelectricitytoeveryuserontheisland,includinghospitals,schoolsandhomes.EirGridplansforthefutureofIrelandselectricitygridandoperatesiteveryminuteofeveryday.Thisincludesinterconnectingtoneighbouringgrids.SONIisresponsibleforoperatingandplanningtheelectricitygridinNorthernIreland.EirGridandSONIalsorunthewholesaleelectricitymarketontheislandofIreland.Weensurethateveryonehaspowerwhentheyneeditatthemosteconomicpricepossible.5.Why will we all be using moreclean electricity in future?Wehavetofindnewwaystomeetanincreasingneedforenergywithoutrelyingonburningfossilfuels.Electricityhelpsmakethispossible,asitcanbegeneratedfromcleanandrenewablesourceslikethewindorthesun.Thesesourcesofenergywillneverrunout,andtheydonthavecarbonemissionsthatcauseclimatechange.Thismeansrenewableelectricitywillincreasinglyreplacefossilfuelslikecoalandoil.Becauseofthis,electricitywillincreasinglybeusedformoreactivities,liketransportandheating.Naturalgasisexpectedtostillbeusedtogeneratesomeelectricityasabackupwhenwecantrelyonthe sun or the wind.Power generation companies create electricity and compete to supply it at the best price.EirGrid transports electricity from where its generated to where its needed.ESB Networks take electricity from the grid and send to everyone who needs it.Consumers choose an electricity supplier,condent that theyll have a reliable and secure supply now and in future.11July 20236.How will the grid prepare forclean electricity?Toprepareforthischange,EirGridandSONImustmaketheelectricitygridstrongerandmoreflexible.Thegridwillneedtocarrymorepower,andmostofthispowerwillcomefromrenewable generation that varies depending ontheweather.Wherewecan,wewillusetheexistinggridtomeetthisgoal.However,giventhescaleofchange,wewillalsoneedtoplanforagreatdealofnewgridinfrastructuresuchasundergroundcables,pylonsandsubstations.7.What does this mean fortheelectricity grid?DeliveringontheRenewableAmbitioncreatesseveralchallengesfortheelectricitygrid:ThegridwillneedtocarrymuchmorepowerIn2020,thedemandforelectricitywastwicetheamountusedin1990.Thatdemandwillincreaseagainandsubstantiallyby2030.Theseprojectionsarebasedontheincreasinguseofelectricityfortransportandheating.Buttheyalsoreflecttheincreasingdemandforelectricityfromhighdemandusers.Theseincludepharmaceuticalplants,hightechmanufacturinganddatacentres.WellneedtocopewithvariablesourcesinremotelocationsBy2030,mostoftheelectricityonthegridwillbegeneratedfromclean,renewablesourceslikethewindorthesun.However,theamountofelectricityfromthesesourcesdependsontheweather.Wecanteasilyoreconomicallystorelargeamountsofelectricity,sowemustallowforthisvariability.Also,sourcesofrenewableelectricityhavetypicallybeenlocatedfarawayfromwheremostpowerisused.WellbecombiningcomplexformsofgenerationGeneratingelectricityfromthewindorsunistechnicallyverydifferentfromburningfossilfuelstocreatepower.Themainchallengeisthatrenewableelectricityisgeneratedatadifferentfrequencytotherestofthepoweronthegrid.Addingthismuchelectricityfromrenewablesourcesisasignificanttechnicalchallenge.Thegridwehavetodaycannotcarrythismuchextrapower,letalonemovethismuchpowercrosscountryfromrenewablesources.Toprepareforthisfuture,theelectricitygridneedstobemadestrongerandmoreflexible.WeremanagingadecadeofgridupgradesThesechallengesneedadecadeofnewprojectstoupgradeandaddtothegrid.Withoutthiswork,wewontbeabletorelyonasecuresupplyofelectricity,andwewonthave80%ofthispowercomingfromcleansourcesby2030.Finally,thisRoadmappresumesthatexistinggridupgradeprojectswillgoaheadasplannedandonschedule.Withouttheseexistingprojects,itwillbedifficultifnotimpossibletoachieve2030goals.We need to build and improve partnerships ThisRoadmapdependsonsupportandflexibilityfromallthosewhoworkwithusontheislandselectricitysystem,includingthepublic,government,developers,andregulators.12Shaping Our Electricity Future Roadmap:A summary of version 1.18.What are the challenges ofcleanelectricityWeknowthatthecompaniesthat build renewable generation are working hard to make sure therewillbeenoughnewsourcesofrenewableelectricitytomeet2030targets.Butwedontknowiftheelectricitygridwillbereadytocarrythispower.Asaresult,theelectricitygridincludingtheregulationsandpolicythataffectthegridneedstochange.ThechangeswediscussinthisRoadmaparesothegridcanmeettheuniquechallengesofrenewableelectricity.Thisformofenergy:Is often generated far from where itsneeded;Comesfromvariablesources;and Hasadifferentfrequencytotherestofthepoweronthegrid,andsoistechnicallyhardertoworkwith.8.1Dealing with remote locations Weareobligedtoconnectnewgeneratorstothegrid,nomatterwheretheychoosetolocate.Irelandsgreatestsourceofrenewableenergyiswind,andthestrongestandmostreliablesourceofinlandwindpowerisinthewestofIreland.Similarly,thegreatestpotential for solar power is in the south of the country.However,mostofIrelandselectricityisusedontheeastcoast.InNorthernIrelanditsasimilarpicture,withthegreatestresourceofonshorewindinthenorthandwest,solarpowerinthesoutheast and the greatest demand for electricityintheeast.Movingthismuchpoweracrossthegridisahugechallenge.Weneedtomakethegridstrongenoughwherewereconnectingrenewablegenerators,thenbuildor strengthen our network to move the power.Thiswillrequireahugenumberofprojectstoupgradeoraddtothegrid.OffshorewindwillalsobeanincreasingfactorintermsofGridplanninginNorthernIrelandandIreland.8.2Upgrading the grid without disrupting your supply of electricity Wecantmakemajorchangestothegridwhilepowerisflowingandneithercanweturnitallofftogetworkdone.Ifwearetokeepthesupplyofelectricitysecure,wehavetocarefullysequencethetimingofgridprojectstoensurewekeepthelightson.Thislimitshowmanyprojectswecancompleteatanyonetime.13July 20238.3Informing the public andrespondingto their concerns Weknowthatnewgridinfrastructureprojectsleadtotoughandemotivedebates.Communitiesexpectstrongreasonsfordisruptivechange.Thatswhyweofferthepublicanopportunitytoinfluenceourdecisionmakingprocess.Weaimtobuildtrustbyclearlyexplainingourgoalsandourlimitations,andthenaskingforyourresponse.Wherepossible,weaimtoproposefinalsolutionsthatreflectyourviewsandaremorelikelytobeaccepted.9.Who do we need to work with toachieve this?Thescaleofthechallengeiswithoutprecedent.EirGridandSONI,astheoperatorsofthegrid,willplayakeyrole,butwecannotdeliverontheRenewableAmbitiononourown.Thisisatargetthatwillrequirech