2019年全球时尚及奢侈品行业私募基金和投资者调研.pdf

Fashion&Luxury Private Equity and Investors Survey 2019Global reportContentsPreface and methodology 4Key takeaways 7M&A Deal Monitor 2018 9Private Equity and Investors Survey 2019 17Glossary and contacts 374Fashion&Luxury Private Equity and Investors Survey 2019|Preface and methodologyPrefaceDuring 2018,Fashion&Luxury(F&L)grabbed the attention of PE funds and Investors.Some have raised special vehicles to be on top of trends and to recognise the best assets in the industry.Valuations have grown high and this has shone the spotlight on the F&L industry,despite market challenges such as disruptive technologies and new competitive landscapes.PE funds and Investors have faced increasing competition from strategic buyers,that pursue strong buy-and-build strategies to consolidate their businesses and to survive market transformation.Competition has also extended geographically,with increased interest from Asia and Middle East.In this context,global investors interested in the Fashion&Luxury industry are reviewing their expectations and strategies for the next years.In order to analyse and measure market trends and expectations on M&A activities,Deloitte has launched the fourth edition of the“Global Fashion&Luxury Private Equity and Investors Survey”.5Fashion&Luxury Private Equity and Investors Survey 2019|Preface and methodologyMethodology and contentsThe study considers more than ten sectors of the F&L industry,of which three are Personal Luxury Goods.ContentsGeoScopeData sourceRemarksPrimarydata levelFull secondary dataFull primary dataNew sectorGlobalGlobalThe survey targeted senior members within investment funds,with a substantial knowledge of the F&L industryNews and reportsfrom major media providers Investor pressreleasesCompany pressreleases Online survey basedon Computer AssistedWeb Interviewing(CAWI)Interviews with PrivateEquity funds topmanagement F&L market outlookExit and investmentstrategies in 2019 Investors currentportfolio of F&L assets Size of M&A deals by F&Lsector Target company profilesInvestor profiles Analysis of global dealsSectors coveredPrivate Equity andInvestors Survey 2019M&A Deal Monitor 2018Market segmentationAbsoluteAspirationalAccessibleFashionPersonal Luxury GoodsApparel&Accessories FurnitureLuxuryHotelsLuxuryCruisesLuxury RestaurantsDigital LuxuryGoodsPrivateJetsYachtsLuxuryCarsElectricCarsCosmetics&Fragrances Watches&Jewellery AspirationalFashionAbsolutePrice point analysisLuxuryConsumers perceptionPrimarydata level7Fashion&Luxury Private Equity and Investors Survey 2019|Key takeawaysKey takeawaysM&A Deal Monitor 20182018 Global M&A deal overview The Fashion&Luxury industry proved to be fertile soil for M&A activities with#265 deals registered in 2018,presenting a significant increase of#47 deals compared to the previous year.Personal Luxury Goods deals have increased(+11 deals versus 2017)with Cosmetics&Fragrances(17%of total)growing by#16 deals,while both Watches&Jewellery(11%)and Apparel&Accessories(28%)decreased by#1 and#4 deals respectively.The Hotels sector,which represents 28%of total,was the best segment in terms of deals growth with respect to the previous year,increasing by#29.M&A deals volumes in other sectors increased,with activity in Cruises(+3 deals),Restaurant&Pubs(+3)and Yachts(+1)growing compared to the previous year.The average deal value has shown flat at$233m in 2018,with just a$3m increase from 2017.M&A deals in Europe strongly increased(+41 deals),whilst North America and Asia-Pacific remained flat.Luxury Automotive deals were present only in China during 2018,driven by the very active electric cars industry.Top deals in 2018Acquisitions in Automotive,Hotels and Apparel&Accessories sectors drove numbers in 2018:Beijing Electric Vehicle Ltd.by BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology Ltd.(3.6B$for 100%)Belmond Ltd.by LVMH(3.3B$for 100%)Gianni Versace SpA by Michael Kors Holdings Limited(2.1B$for 100%)Other relevant acquisitions in 2018 involved Cruises,Yachts and Furniture companies:Silversea Cruises Ltd.By Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.(1.5B$for 67%)Boat Holdings,LLC by Polaris Industries Inc.(717M$for 100%)Ekornes ASA by Qumei Investment AS(700M$for 100%)M&A features and strategiesOf the M&A deals completed,56%were carried out by Strategic investors(vs.47%in 2017),with a strong increase in 2018 in terms of number of deals compared to 2017(+42 deals).Financial investors,involved in 44%of the total,increased only slightly the number of deals(+5 YoY).Strategic sellers were involved in 57%of the transactions(vs.63%in 2017).Generally,bidders investments focused on a buyout strategy(38%of the times,+3 deals vs.2017).8Fashion&Luxury Private Equity and Investors Survey 2019|Key takeawaysPrivate Equity and Investors Survey 2019Fashion&Luxury market outlookWithin its Private Equity Survey,Deloitte focuses on understanding investors perceptions of the potential growth in the F&L market in coming years.The consensus view is that major players in Personal Luxury Goods(PLG)are projected to achieve 1.1 times their 2018 sales index by 2021(+4%CAGR 2018-21),while other Luxury sectors are expected to achieve 1.2 times their value(+6%CAGR 2018-21).Within the next three years,investors forecast that the F&L industry will continue to grow by 5-10%annually.Digital Luxury Goods,Cosmetics&Fragrances and Furniture are projected to outperform strongly,growing by more than 10%per year.Apparel&Accessories,Hotels and Restaurants are consolidating(with expected annual growth of 5-10%).A decrease is expected in Cars and Private Jets,while Yachts,Jewellery and Selective Retailing are forecast to stay flat.Investors positive consensus regarding both Asia and the Middle East has continued in 2019 as the forecast continues to see these regions stimulating the growth of the F&L industry.Expectations for North America are positive(5-10%annual growth),but sentiment has decreased compared to 2018.Finally,sentiment regarding Europe,Latin America and Japan has changed compared to the previous year,but the regions are forecast to develop relatively stable.2019 exit strategyThe report considers potential strategies investors will undertake in 2019 to enhance or disinvest their Fashion&Luxury portfolios.About 43%of funds are considering divesting an F&L asset in 2019,resulting in an increase from the previous year(+8.2 percentage points).Generally,an investors exit is motivated by an opportunity for high returns,the closing of the investment period,market trends mismatches or concerns related to the shrinking of multiples.2019 investment strategy70%of funds are considering investing in an F&L asset in 2019,with notable interest rising in:Apparel&Accessories(where 79%intend to invest),Cosmetics&Fragrances(79%),Furniture(57%),Watches&Jewellery(36%),Selective Retailing(29%).Interest across categories is increasing compared to previous year,mostly noticeable at Selective Retailing and Cosmetics&Fragrances.Interest however in Digital Luxury Goods decreases,despite positive market growth expectations.Both current investors and newcomers are more attracted to consolidated sectors within the F&L industry(such as Apparel&Accessories and Cosmetics&Fragrances)where market knowledge is widespread.Newcomers seem more interested in experiential luxury.With respect to 2018,the continuous consolidation of the F&L industry is moving investments towards smaller-sized companies(+10 percentage points),where investors plan to boost performance by implementing internationalization,performance improvement and digital strategy design(which grew by 20 percentage points).Digital disruptions,such as Artificial Intelligence(AI),Robotics and Big Data&Analytics enable companies to keep pace with the virtual customers;given that,luxury companies are seeking for digital startup/companies to exploit synergies.Digital penetration will lead to physical disruption;the classical store will inevitably change from point of sales to point of touch.The consensus is that forecast returns will range from 21 to 30%.According to respondents in 2019,43%will probably invest in disruptive technologies in order to benefit from potential synergies.Internet of Things,Big Data&Analytics and Artificial intelligence will have the largest impact on investors portfolios according to respondents in 2019.9Fashion&Luxury Private Equity and Investors Survey 2019|M&A Deal Monitor 2018M&A Deal Monitor 2018Deals in 2017Sector20172018Growth-4+29-1+16-3-1+1+4+3Deals in 2018Deals+4721817746292817107273752844149861414265 Personal Luxury Goods(PLG)+3Apparel&AccessoriesHotelsWatches&JewelleryCosmetics&FragrancesFurniturePrivate JetsYachtsCars(including Electric Cars)CruisesRestaurantsNotes:1)2017 adjusted for changes in perimeter;2)Still pending The analysis considers both closed and announced deals during 2018Source:Elaboration on Deloitte intelligence dataFashion&Luxury M&A dealsOverview of deals in 2018 by sectorTop luxury deals of 2018MonthTargetBidderValue ($m)Jul.Beijing Electric VehicleBAIC BluePark New Energy Technology3,620Dec.Belmond Ltd.LVMH Group3,310Oct.NH Hotel Group SA Minor International Public Company 3,207Dec.Gianni Versace SpAMichael Kors 2,162Jul.Silversea Cruises Ltd.Royal Caribbean Cruises1,513MayWyndham European Vacation RentalsPlatinum Equity1,231Jul.Boat Holdings,LLCPolaris Industries 717Aug.Ekornes ASAQumei Investment 702Aug.Guangzhou Xiaopeng Motors TechnologyPrimavera Capital Group595Oct.Perry Ellis InternationalGeorge Feldenkreis541Jun.Byton Contemporary Amperex Technology501Aug.ShangHai YouXia Motors Co.,Ltd.Gezhi Asset Management357Nov.2Nox Bellcow CosmeticsFujian Green Pine343Nov.Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Shanghai Electric Group Company Limited298Apr.VF Corporation (Nautica brand business)Authentic Brands Group27810Fashion&Luxury Private Equity and Investors Survey 2019|M&A Deal Monitor 2018Source:Elaboration on Deloitte intelligence dataM&A deals by region and sector Overview of deals in 2018 by region(number of deals)Key findingsEurope201720181091502016951811161812504663141621471519385Apparel&AccessoriesCosmetics&FragrancesOthersHotelsWatches&JewelleryPrivate JetsYachts+41Middle East2017201832201651112122-1North America201720185958201659818517510142510891410161510-1Asia-Pacific20172018363820163636761087421212101184+2#Variance 2017-18Japan201720184820168311241251+4Rest of the world201720186820168411412135+2Europe was the only region which saw a significant increase of Fashion&Luxury deals in 2018,with 41 more deals,driven by an increase in the Hotel business.North America and Middle East presented a lower number of deals with respect to 2017.Luxury Hotel and Apparel deals were present in all major regions,and were notable drivers of M&A activity globally in 2018.Asia-Pacific presented a slight increase in F&L deals since 2017,thanks to the Watches&Jewellery segment.11Fashion&Luxury Private Equity and Investors Survey 2019|M&A Deal Monitor 2018Size of main M&A dealsThe F&L soil has been fertile with 265 M&A deals in 2018,showing a 22%increase from 2017.Personal Luxury Goods(+8%YoY)represent 55%of all deals.Key findingsCosmetics registered#16 deals more compared to 2017.Apparel and Watches&Jewellery deals decreased by#4 and#1 respectively.The Hotel sector has become more attractive to investors during 2018,becoming the top gainer in terms of deal number(+29).75144428445%55%265PersonalLuxuryGoods OtherLuxuryMarkets869Apparel&AccessoriesWatches&JewelleryCosmetics&FragrancesHotelsFurniturePrivate JetsYachtsCarsRestaurantsCruisesTotal F&LSectorbreakdown 27.5%28.3%3.4%16.6%5.3%3.0%1.5%2.3%10.6%Var.#deals2017-18 -4+29-1+16-3+1+3-141.5%+47100%+3+4+11PLG YoY 2017-1873Number of deals in 2018-Breakdown by sector(number of deals,percentage)Source:Elaboration on Deloitte intelligence data12Fashion&Luxury Private Equity and Investors Survey 2019|M&A Deal Monitor 2018Average value of main deals by sectorDeals related to the Cars industry were the largest in 2018 with an average value of$945m(#6 deals).The average deal value of PLGs in 2018 was$117m.Key findingsCosmetics and Apparel saw their average deal value fall in 2018.Automotive(+561%YoY),Yachts(+407%),Private Jets(+174%),Hotels(+63%)and Furniture(+45%)recorded remarkable increases.Average value per deal in 2018 Breakdown by sector($m,percentage)Note:The average deal value has been calculated based upon data of disclosed transactionsSource:Elaboration on Deloitte intelligence data 945+561%Watches&JewelleryApparelHotelsAvg.PLG$117mYoY 2017/18(%)Private JetsFurnitureCruisesF&LAverageCarsYachtsOther luxury sectorsF&L averagePersonal Luxury Goods771279266233191120976324Cosmetics&FragrancesRestaurantsN/AN/A+407%+63%+45%+174%-12%-46%-15%-84%17213Fashion&Luxury Private Equity and Investors Survey 2019|M&A Deal Monitor 2018Target company featuresCompared to the previous year,funds increased the number of deals related to smaller sized firms,delivering lower average multiple,with a significant increase of the 5-10 x EV/EBITDA multiple(42%of deals in 2018,vs.17%in 2017).Key findingsIn 2018,investors were mostly oriented towards lower-sized firms($0-$50m)which accounted for 65%of deals in the year,compared to 55%in 2017.There was a marked decrease in deals involving players in the Medium Size market,between$51m and$250m,by 11%(-25%CAGR 2016-18).Deals involving multiples superior to 15 times the EBITDA decreased,while there was an increase in deals positioned on EBITDA multiples of both 5-10 x and 11-15x.Target company features-Sales class and multiples(percentage,enterprise value-EV/EBITDA multiples)TARGET COMPANIES SALES CLASSDEAL EV/EBITDA MULTIPLE40%32%28%100%201655%29%16%100%201765%18%17%100%2018201620%34%37%9%100%201717%31%42%10%100%201842%35%23%100%Big Size($250m)15x11x-15x5x-10 x10%per year)Stable(10%per year)Stable(10 x(EV/Ebitda)10 x(EV/Ebitda)Secondbuyout43%+8.2ptsMarket trendsmismatchexpectationsOther driversHigh returnsopportunityClosing of theinvestmentperiod6%19%100%56%19%19%19%13%100%50%37%0%55%45%44%56%67%33%100%100%100%100%63%Source:Elaboration on Deloitte survey21Fashion&Luxury Private Equity and Investors Survey 2019|Private Equity and Investors Survey 2019Personal Luxury Goods remain the most attractive sectors for investors,with Apparel&Accessories and Cosmetics&Fragrances becoming even more prominent.Investments in Digital Luxury Goods are expected to decrease.Key findingsThe sectors considered to be most attractive based on survey respondents are:Apparel&Accessories(79%),Cosmetics&Fragrances(79%),Furniture(57%)and Watches&Jewellery(36%).Interest across sectors is increasing compared to last year,particularly in Selective Retailing,which went up by 19 percentage points.Digital Luxury Goods on the other hand(7%)declined by 9 percentage points.NoYes100%Apparel&AccessoriesCosmetics&FragrancesFurnitureWatches&JewellerySelectiveRetailingRestaurantsWill your fundacquire an F&Lasset in 2019?30%70%of PEfundsDigital LuxuryGoods36%29%79%21%7%12%Other157%79%Personal Luxury GoodsOther F&L sectors12pts