全球投资策略：2050年实现净零排放的途径.pdf

Disclosures&Disclaimer:This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Asset/SubcategoryMarch 2021ESG&Climate Change|GlobalFuture FrontiersPlay interview withAshim PaunESG&Climate ChangeGlobalMarch 2021By:Ashim Paun,Sriharsha Pappu,Wai-Shin Chan,Tarek Soliman and the Global Research team Future FrontiersThe pathway towards net-zeroTo achieve the global warming targets agreed in the Paris Agreementthe world needs to cut emissions rapidlyOur global decarbonisation scenario looks at how cleaner power,transport,buildings and industry can reduce the emissions gap to net-zero by 81%by 2050 1 ESG&Climate Change Global March 2021 Future Frontiers Atmospheric carbon continues to rise,as we emit more greenhouse gases each year.Even the lockdowns of 2020 only resulted in around a 7%temporary annual drop.We have already experienced 1.2oC warming since pre-industrial times,and the impacts of this are worsening.As governments,companies and investors around the world begin to target net-zero emissions,we look across sectors and ask a question:How can the deep,economy-wide transition necessary for this level of decarbonisation be achieved?Two years ago,in The second frontier Why the transport sector is next in tackling climate change(January 2019),we looked at how the focus so far has been on replacing fossil fuels in power generation.As we argued then and now,the transport sector follows-the second major step is to replace the internal combustion engine.In this new report,we go much further,and look at future frontiers for decarbonisation,moving beyond power and cars to consider other clean transport modes,greener buildings and low-carbon industry.-81%Emissions reduction vs BAU in our Future Frontiers scenario We begin with a discussion of emissions in the context of net-zero targets,and we look at how major economies are positioning to deliver on their ambition,as well as what future catalysts may drive decarbonisation.Four subsequent sections then describe how we project radical pathways for decarbonisation across these four major emitting sectors:power,transport,buildings and industry.We aggregate these four pathways to create our Future Frontiers Scenario.Overall,these decarbonisation pathways across sectors reduce total emissions by 81%by 2050,vs a business-as-usual outlook Currently,we are not on track to meet the maximum warming targets of the Paris Agreement.The pathway we explore in this report is extremely challenging it exhausts a lot of the technological options currently available,in some areas requires further innovation and to compound this,there remain many policy gaps to stimulate the scale-up we need for removing emissions fast across a number of sectors.Additionally,some materials may prove to be scarce until adequate reserves or alternatives are found.Executive Summary Going beyond the first steps of decarbonisation Aggregating sectoral decarbonisation pathways On the wrong pathway ESG&Climate Change Global March 2021 2 Yet we believe that catalysts continue to stack up.For every disappointment in the rate of energy transition,other areas bring surprises on the upside.Now we need major economies to show energy transition leadership,and all countries need to increase their ambition and deliver on their plans.We see investors all around the world who are seeking to ensure that they are aligning the funds they manage with a low-carbon energy transition.And they fully understand that the transition goes well beyond the cleantech sectors they may have traditionally invested in,focussed on renewable power technologies in particular.So we believe that this report can help investors to shape their portfolio decarbonisation strategies,by focussing on the major sectors which will be the priority for reducing greenhouse gas emissions,via energy consumption and other industrial processes.Responsible investment frameworks can play a crucial role in driving companies to deploy resources towards lower carbon solutions-for their own long-term viability.Current levels of climate ambition are very far from putting us on a pathway that will meet our Paris Agreement goals Patricia Espinosa,Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change,March 2021 2050 is only a generation away,not long in terms of human history to accomplish such a radical transformation as we need to protect our world,its human populations and all the systems we depend upon from dangerous,runaway climate change.But in terms of politics,policy,technological advances and economics,29 years is a long time.There are many,many things that we can achieve and change in that time.It is still possible to keep global warming to within less dangerous boundaries,but we need to act now and act radically to achieve this.but there is progress Investors are playing a key role and its not too late We acknowledge the contribution of Abhishek Kumar and Anushua Chowdhury,climate change analysts,Bangalore,in the preparation of this report 3 ESG&Climate Change Global March 2021 Future Frontiers:The pathway to net-zero in 2050 Source:UNEP,HSBC;Note:Our Future Frontiers Scenario focuses on energy emissions,as well as emissions from non-energy industrial processes.Significant emitting sectors important to the energy transition which we do not cover include waste generation and management,water utilities,agriculture and forestry;GtCO2e refers to gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent;The United Nations Environment Programmes(UNEP)Current Policy Scenario is used as business-as-usual emissions,where no further policy measures are taken to limit emissions beyond those already in place;Emissions from agriculture,waste and LUCF are capped at 2019 levels through to 2050 in our Future Frontiers scenario;Emissions reduction from the buildings sector versus 2019 level is shown at 88%,but can be described as a reduction of 96%by including indirect emissions,via decarbonised power.Green buildings Retrofitting in existing buildings and green new builds increase energy efficiency,as oil and gas are replaced by electricity and hydrogen as energy sourcesLow-carbon Industry A disparate sector requiring diverse solutions,such as materials efficiency and recycling,electrification,carbon capture and hydrogen reduce emissions from metals&mining,chemicals,cement,oil&gas and F-gasesClean power generation Coal and natural gas phased out by 2035 in developed markets,and mostly by 2050 in the rest of the world,with renewables growing rapidly,along with some nuclear,carbon capture and storageCleaner transport Diesel and gasoline make way for batteries and fuel cells in road transport by 2040,with global regulation limiting shipping and aviation emissionsReduction in emissions vs 2019 levelsOur Future Frontiers Scenario shows how it is possible to close the gap between where we are headed and net-zero emissions by 81%by 2050Low-carbon industry:-80%Clean power:-100%Cleaner transport:-81%Green buildings:-88%-23 GtCO2e-23 GtCO2e-12 GtCO2e-5 GtCO2e03060902019 2023 2027 2031 2035 2039 2043 20472050GtCO2eFalling emissions under HSBC Future Frontiers ScenarioRising emissions under UNEP Current Policy Scenario Our scenario sees 63 GtCO2e removal from across energy consuming sectors and industrial processes.Sectors including waste generation and management,water utilities,agriculture and forestry will also require material decarbonisation to close the remaining 16 GtCO2e gap towards net zero.Stabilisation of emissions from land use,forestry and agriculture results in a further 7 GtCO2e cut vs BAU.ESG&Climate Change Global March 2021 4 Figure 1:Major steps towards decarbonisation in HSBCs Future Frontiers Scenario Major emitter,over a quarter of total GHGs Fossil fuels account for 64%of global generation Deep and rapid transition core to Paris Agreement goals Future Frontiers Scenario includes zero carbon generation mix in DM by 2035 With emissions in emerging,frontier markets and ROW,capped at 2019 levels through to 2025,decreasing to zero by 2050 With solar and wind backed by energy storage solutions dominant drivers Electricity is a key enabler in reducing fossil fuel usage in other sectors so as well as needing to decarbonise generation,we will need much more of it Oil is the key energy feedstock for transport,at 92%of the total HSBCs Future Frontiers Scenario includes complete decarbonisation of land-based transport Batteries and hydrogen fuel cells essential to the transition Shipping to meet IMO targets of 50%emission reduction from 2008 levels,by 2050.Emissions from aviation capped at 2019 levels,in line with CORSIA regulations Our modelled emissions from transport are cut by 81%vs BAU in 2050 Buildings emit directly,via use of fossil fuels for heating,hot water,cooking,and indirectly through electricity consumption Buildings also emit indirectly Scope 2 via the carbon emitted in generating the power they consume Via retrofitting the existing stock and construction of high-spec green newbuild,buildings can consume less fossils and less energy overall Electricity plays a key role in this transition,and hydrogen gas may also form a future energy feedstock Our assumptions lead to 88%lower direct emissions and,as power is decarbonised,a 96%total emissions cut in 2050 Diverse sector requires disparate solutions Electrification can play major role,replacing fossil fuels,for instance in mining,recycled steel,and non-ferrous metal-making Cutting methane emissions from oil&gas production and coal mining is also crucial Meanwhile,carbon capture may play a major role if virgin steel making and cement emissions are to be materially curbed Clean hydrogen can also play a role in multiple industrial sectors F-gases,used in refrigeration and cooling,are a growing GHG the EU is targeting a two-thirds reduction Industry-wide 80%reduction in emissions from 2019 levels to be achieved by 2050 Source:HSBC Clean power generation Cleaner transport Green buildings Low-carbon industry 5 ESG&Climate Change Global March 2021 Comment from Sriharsha Pappu,Energy Transition thematic lead Energy transition is first and foremost about acceptance.Acceptance that the way we currently power and fuel our economies and day to day lives,while convenient,is inconsistent in the long run with sustainable,equitable development and the needs of the planet.Energy transition is about change.This is not the first ever energy transition,there have been many others from biomass,to wood,to coal,to oil but it is going to be the first transition where the driving force is not convenience,but sustainability.Energy transition is about inevitability.Decarbonisation goals and climate change targets simply cannot be met without a transformation in our sources and uses of energy.If we are serious about addressing the problem of climate change,a whole-hearted embrace of energy transition is inevitable.Energy transition is about pace:the pace of technological innovation driving the pace of adoption driving the pace at which scale is achieved driving the pace of cost declines,in a virtuous circle.Solar power costs for example have declined by 82%over the past decade,as per the International Renewable Energy Agency,and thats the template on technology,adoption and scale curves for most other transition technologies to follow.Energy transition is about policy support,be it in the form of investment,regulation,taxes,tariffs or subsidies.There is a real danger in the false narrative of decarbonisation being a tax,or investment in energy transition despite a lack of initial price competitiveness vs.fossil fuels being a perversion of free market capitalism.Subsidies and policy support mechanisms today offset and defray very real and very significant costs of climate change in the future.The sooner we start framing these support mechanisms as long-term investments with material payback in the form of eliminating future costs,rather than as subsidies,the faster we can see progress on market-based solutions.Energy transition is about externalities and the right framework for cost equivalence.Negative externalities from fossil fuels in the form of carbon emissions or for example from plastic producers in the form of plastic pollution are a cost borne by society and not factored into producer cost structures and therefore the true cost of fossil based energy is understated.The cost equivalence comparison when we think about energy transition options vs.fossil fuels needs to incorporate the true costs of externalities.Energy transition is about optionality.There isnt going to be a one-size-fits-all solution for renewable power or for energy storage or for transportation there is unlikely to be a silver bullet.We will likely see a multitude of solutions from solar power to wind to batteries to electric vehicles to hydrogen,and more all with different strengths,scale efficiencies,use cases and differing paces of development and commercialisation.And finally energy transition is about optimism.The emission reduction goals we talk about in this note might appear ambitious,but if we view them as a series of interconnected dominoes,starting with electrification,where progress on one goal sets everything else in motion,then the challenge is closer to being overcome than it might first appear.ESG&Climate Change Global March 2021 6 Executive Summary 1 Comment from Sriharsha Pappu,Energy Transition thematic lead 5 Future frontiers 7 Emissions are still rising and so is the temperature 7 The rise of net zero emissions 8 Decarbonisation across sectors 11 Future catalysts-policy 14 Future catalysts technology and innovation 16 Clean power generation 19 The first frontier:power has been the focus 20 The second frontier-Transport transition 28 Cars 31 Buses and light-goods vehicles 36 Trucks 37 Motorcycles and e-bikes 40 Ships 41 Rail 44 Aviation 45 Green buildings 49 Buildings decarbonisation:technologically less complex,practically difficult 51 Low-carbon industry 54 Metals&mining 57 Oil&gas production 61 Cement manufacture 62 Chemicals 64 F-Gases 66 Closing the gap 67 Major contribution towards mid-century decarbonisation 69 Disclosure appendix 72 Disclaimer 75 Contents 7 ESG&Climate Change Global March 2021 Emissions are still rising and so is the temperature It is 29 years since the Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit pushed awareness of and focus on environmental risks towards the spotlight of global attention.From the Earth Summit was born the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC),enshrined in the Kyoto Protocol,designed to enable state parties to reduce greenhouse gas emissions(GHGs).And in 2015,the Paris Agreement was adopted,bringing in a new era of global focus on addressing climate change risks.Yet annual emissions are still rising,as Figure 2 makes apparent(with 2020 as an anomaly due to the collapse in economic activity associated with the COVID-19 pandemic).And moving in t