2021商业地产发展白皮书.pdf

2021 前前 言言.1 一、市场表现：一、市场表现：需求回暖，需求回暖，商业地产市场稳步复苏商业地产市场稳步复苏.2 1.商业地产新房市场：1-5 月全国商办新房开发投资额同比增长 6.1%，销售面积同比增长8.8%，新开工面积同比下降 11.2%.2 2.商业地产大宗交易：经济向好，需求释放，大宗交易市场升温.6 3.商业地产租赁市场：需求回暖带动百 MALL 商铺租金环比上涨 0.31%，写字楼租金环比微跌0.10%，TMT、金融、专业服务行业持续引领写字楼租赁需求.8 4.商办土地市场：上半年推出成交面积同比均下降，楼面价同比上涨 9.0%.12 二、企业表现：二、企业表现：聚焦核心城市，加快轻资产与数字化运营，融资渠道有望拓宽聚焦核心城市，加快轻资产与数字化运营，融资渠道有望拓宽.14 1.企业投资聚焦城市群核心一二线城市，并密切关注具备消费需求空间的三四线城市.14 2.轻资产及数字化成为企业商业运营转型的重要方向.17 3.资产证券化拓宽企业融资渠道，商业地产 REITs 备受关注.18 三、三、趋势展望：体验式商业与数字化赋能，寻找商业地产运营价值新范式趋势展望：体验式商业与数字化赋能，寻找商业地产运营价值新范式.21 1.围绕“Z 世代”消费需求，商业地产新业态新模式不断涌现.21 2.体验式商业成为购物中心发展热点，赋能商业地产发展新变革.22 3.数字化赋能商业地产，催生数字时代商业地产的运营新范式.23 结语结语.27 专题一：商业地产运营标杆企业及项目发展分析专题一：商业地产运营标杆企业及项目发展分析.28 专题二：写字楼运营服务加强，业态更加灵活多元专题二：写字楼运营服务加强，业态更加灵活多元.32 研究主办：研究主办：中指研究院 中房指数系统 主要研究成员：主要研究成员：莫天全 黄瑜 曹晶晶 孙晓一 姚卓 吴刚 汪勇 张化学 丁晓 黄秀青 牛晓娟 吴建钦 张凯 薛建行 赵丽一 王慧博 胡佳娜 杨红侠 程宇 樊朋飞 张文静 黄雪 2021 1 2020 2021ZTMT 2021 2021 2 202120211-525.7%4.3%1.1-56.1%8.8%11.2%2016-20211-5 CREIS 120211-567996.1%1+6.4%6.2%5.0%4.7%4.6%4.1%3.8%3.4%2.9%3.1%2.9%2.3%2.4%2.8%2.5%2.2%1.9%1.5%15.4%14.2%11.8%10.0%9.2%8.5%13.4%11.5%9.6%8.3%8.0%6.9%6.9%7.6%7.0%5.9%5.3%4.2%0%5%10%15%20%25%开发投资额新开工面积销售面积办公楼占比商业营业用房占比 2021 3 20201-514.0%1.412.6%20211-5689311.2%9.2%2016 20211-520211-538028.8%20201-57.2%5.7%1.5 120211-56.1%7.7%8.6%2010-20211-5 CREIS 20211-545916.1%20191.3%20211-415%33.6%1-450%20%5599 7370 9312 11945 14346 14607 15838 15640 14177 13226 13076 4591 6.1%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%050001000015000200002010201120122013201420152016201720182019202021:1-5亿元商业营业用房开发投资额(左)同比（右）2021 4 2010-20211-5 CREIS 20211-551607.7%201922.6%()20211-530%227%158.1%2010-20211-5 CREIS 20211-527898.2%201915.3%()90.2%42.4%14.1%9.8%9.1%17461206712200725902250482253022317204842006618936180125160-7.7%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%050001000015000200002500030000201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021:1569217878775984699075925210812128381197110173928927898.2%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%02000400060008000100001200014000201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021:15 2021 5 21-56.2%20.2%10.5%2010-20211-5 CREIS 2010202020205.4%20192.620211-522086.2%20211-437.3%16.0%20211-473.6123.3%30.7%22.4%16.2%2010-20211-5 CREIS 20211-5173320.2%201929.3%()20211-51807254433674652564162106533676159966163649422086.2%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%02000400060008000100002010201120122013201420152016201720182019202021:1-5亿元办公楼开发投资额（左）同比（右）367853615986688773496569641561406049708466041733-20.2%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%010002000300040005000600070008000201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021:15 2021 6 89.8%81.1%71.8%34.3339.3%241.566.9%2010-20211-5 CREIS 20211-5101310.5%201919.0%()10068.6%6.3%21.3%7.5%40-6048.2%35.7%2.2021 3D2021312.0218DD 18822008225428832498291238264756436337233334101310.5%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%010002000300040005000201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021:15 2021 7 20211-6 CREIS 2021CREIS90157063.7%27.7%2021327.3520201150 20202021 64%28%6%2%股权交易资产交易其他法拍 2021 8 3.MALL0.31%0.10%TMT 1 2021202010024.90/0.24%100MALL26.84/0.31%20212021MALL201968.7%56.8%2019 2021 9 CREIS 20202592021600APP 随着国民经济持续稳定恢复，促进消费的政策不断发力，居民消费需求稳步释放，商业地产市场稳定恢复。从整个商业地产市场发展趋势看，新技术与新消费理念引领商业地产市场变革的时代已经形成。预计下半年，随着消费市场活力持续恢复，我国重点城市商铺租金将逐渐恢复至疫情前的水平，同时实体商业的智慧运营与综合服务水平也将不断提升。20.10%1520214.75/0.10%45.0%50.0%5.0%2021 10 2020-2021 CREIS CREIS202112%9%19.1%2.410%10%0%5%10%15%20%25%2020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q1北京上海广州深圳苏州郑州杭州西安南京 2021 11 2020 CREIS 2020TMT 60%202016.9%10%2020 CREIS 2020TMT45%/TMT40%2021TMT 39.5%14.0%11.9%12.3%8.8%6.0%4.3%3.2%科技/媒体/通信（TMT）银行/保险/证券/其他金融行业律所/教育/专业服务业其他房地产零售制造业医疗44%31%46%32%42%39%31%9%15%16%21%16%10%13%16%12%6%9%12%8%12%0%10%20%30%40%50%/TMT/2021 12 4.9.0%2016-20216300 CREIS 20213001-6300987015.3%300858710.8%20211-63002516/9.0%6.9%20200.673001772130473.6%46826.4%20201.7 2016-20216 CREIS 010002000300040005000600070001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 11 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 11 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 11 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 11 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 11 121 2 3 4 5 6201620172018201920202021万平方米商办用地推出规划建筑面积商办用地成交规划建筑面积推出年度月均成交年度月均-100%-50%0%50%100%050001000015000200002016201720182019202021:1-62016201720182019202021:1-62016201720182019202021:1-6一线城市二线城市三四线城市万平方米成交规划建筑面积（左）同比（右）2021 13 2016-20216 CREIS 20211-632646.4%10330/16.2%0.3%20211-639613.7%2795/18.3%6.7%3.1 20211-6300430012.4%1665/15.1%10.6%5.0-40%-20%0%20%40%03000600090001200015000180002016201720182019202021:1-62016201720182019202021:1-62016201720182019202021:1-6一线城市二线城市三四线城市元/平方米成交楼面均价（左）同比（右）2021 14 1.202011%42%GDP54.8GDP54%2021 15 2010-2020 20211-6300 CREIS 20211-646%50%一线城市二线城市二线城市46%50%杭州593.86.9%西安350.94.1%成都349.14.1%济南300.63.5%重庆192.22.2%沈阳187.42.2%武汉186.52.2%苏州176.12.1%郑州164.71.9%长沙155.71.8%贵阳151.81.8%宁波143.71.7%南京120.01.4%青岛109.41.3%其他779.19.1%湖州274.23.2%嘉兴200.82.3%泰州183.92.1%南通152.91.8%潍坊140.21.6%盐城134.21.6%遵义133.51.6%佛山128.31.5%萍乡120.01.4%菏泽101.91.2%其他2729.731.8%广州184.22.1%上海122.81.4%北京10.10.1%深圳9.00.1%2021 16 593.763006.9%3.2%2.3%2020106132020520203322202095 20201-2021 17 39 2./202170 TOD 10 +2+1 2021134911502025150 20213085 2021 18 202092021 2021 3.REITs 1REITsREITs 20184REITs REITs 2020430REITsREITs202172REITs 2021 19 REITs REITs99 2REITs20211-642%REITsREITs 2020-20216REITs CNABS 36.1%17.7%6.8%4.2%16.9%9.2%9.2%138 68 26 16 单位：亿元 2021 20 2020-20216REITs383.4520211-670.3642%REITsREITs232.3960.6%2020-20216REITs CNABS REITsREITs2020-20216REITs2374211.155%172.345%REITs REITsREITs 一线城市55%二线城市45%2021 21 1.Z Z20192527.5%3.8Z Z“”“”Z 2021 22 IP 2.=52:18:3030%-40%F&BZ 2021 23 KOL 3.2021 24 POSAIREIDVRAR-BI+KOL+APPERPERPCRMCRM 2021 25 25%2018PM+AMP PM +APM PMAPM 2021 26 AIIoT 2021 27 4.0 2021 28 2021 2021 29+2021 1 ATLAS 50 2021 30 2021 5G CBD113CBD Mall+55 2021 31 2021TOD TODTODTODTOD 260 2021 32 2021 2021TMT5G 2021 33 2020 2021 OFFICEZIPCOOCOFFICEZIPOFFICEPROPowered by OFFICEIZIP