2030年adas及自动驾驶市场发展趋势.pdf

20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx1ADAS and autonomousdriving market trendsto 2030Webinar|November 24,202120211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx2We are looking forward to our discussion todayDr.Wolfgang BernhartSenior PartnerStuttgartEmail:Mobile:[phone]ManuelYoonPrincipalFrankfurtEmail:Mobile:[phone]Source:Roland Berger20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx3When talking about ADAS and AD,all vehicle types can be equipped with the according technology and address customer-specific use casesMoving peoplePrivate autonomous carsRobotaxis(city center&rural area)Regional&long-haul busPrivately-owned cars with AD functionality as additional equipmentMass transport and people mover,potentially part of public transportVehicles may be regular cars or pods,in urban city centers or rural areasMoving goodsLCVs/last-mile roadAutonomous long-haul trucksDelivery robots&dronesTransporters for package distribution used to deliver packages to end customer24 h/7 operation of trucks which deliver goods aiming for dock-to-dock use caseCurb-side road delivery of small packages/productsSource:Roland BergerA.ADAS development 2020-202520211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx5Legislation combined with safety ratings are main drivers of ADAS systems uptake besides customer pull for convenienceOverview of global safety legislation and ratings for passenger carsSource:Desk research,Roland Berger AEB car-to-car Reversing detection Lane keeping Intelligent speed assists AEB car-to-pedestrian AEB car-to-cyclist Advanced driver distraction warning LegislationADAS systems penetrationSafety ratings AEB/AES pedestrian,cyclist AEB JA car-to-car,PTW Lane support system PTW AEB head-on Driver monitoring V2X 20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx620182019202020212022202320242025AEB Head-onRoadmap 2020Mobile progressive deformable barrierGrading of AD functionsRescue,extrication and safetyAEB VRU cyclistFar-side protectionAEB Junction&CrossingAEB VRU pedestrian Back-overAutomatic emergency steeringRoadmap 2025 ADChild presence detectionV2XDriver monitoringWhiplash/Rear-end crash protectionRoadmap 2025 Safety ratingRevised subsystem for pedestrian&cyclistEU NCAP sets a specific roadmap for testing of safety until 2025 Most AEB requirements can only be fulfilled with a front cameraEU NCAP roadmap 2018-2025Communication only based on first ideasProposal to release updates out of phase with overall ratingImplementationProtocol releaseStart New AEB features require higher performance of systems and may only be achieved with a front camera and/or fusion of camera and radar Initial NCAP 2022-2024 timetable has been delayed by one year to 2023-2025Source:Xilinx,Roland Berger20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx7For the next years,L2/L2+features are becoming most important for ADAS commercialization as L3 legislation is delayed and costs are higherDefinition of levels of autonomy Blind spot detector Lane departure warningL0.Warning information Automatic emer-gency braking Adaptive cruise control Lane keep assistL1.Driver assistance Cruise control(adaptive cruise control with lane keep assist in parallel)L2.Partial automation Advanced cruise control(adaptive cruise control with lane change assist in parallel)L2+.Combined partial autom.ADASADDe-emphasis of L3 in favor of L2+expectedUse caseConsumer vehiclesRobotaxi+Consumer vehiclesLegalRegulation clear Driver obligationLegislation delayedMarketCurrent focus of commercialization(Compliance+NCAP rating)Reasonable costMobility cases Higher costs acceptableNiche,2025+Highway pilot with automatic lane changes(no human inter-action from exit to exit and full monitoring of environment)L3.Conditional automation Fully automated driving in somesituations without need for human as fallback(chauffeur mode)L4.High automationL5.Full automation Fully autonomousz.z.zSource:SAE Int.,J3016;fka;Roland Berger20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx8In the next five years,it is expected that both L2/L2+market penetration will increase whereas no autonomy/L0 are likely to shrink8%19%20195%34%2%44%15%1%46%25%202529%5%24%29%11%20301068997+1.6%Market penetration rates per level of autonomy,light-duty vehicles m of vehicles,%Source:Roland BergerADAS L4ADAS L1ADAS L3ADAS L2+/+No ADASADAS L2ADAS L020211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx9ADAS/AD features require a range of sensors of which especially cameras and radars will see a strong volume increase in the coming yearsCornerradarCornerradarSurround view cameraParking cameraFront radarSurround view cameraDriver monitoringADAS DCUNight visionUltrasonicLIDARFrontcameraCornerradarCornerradarIllustrativeOverview of automotive sensors in vehicleSource:Roland BergerB.Medium-term ADAS development 2025-203020211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx11Post-2025,ADAS E/E architectures will become more centralized enabling driving and parking features from a central ADAS DCUDecentralized vs.centralized ADAS DCU architecturesSource:Roland BergerIllustrativeUltrasonic sensorRadarParking camera Smart sensors with independent ECUs and isolated functionality Higher practicality for lower levels of ADAS and volume/budget modelsDecentralized architecture(today)Centralized architecture with ADAS DCU(future)Satellite sensors with transmission of sensor data to centralized ADAS DCU,which computes centrally for driving and parking Best suited to higher levels of autonomy with more complex functionalities2025:c.70%of new vehicle sales2025:c.30%of new vehicle salesUSS ECUParking cameras ECUFront camera(smart)SoCNetworkADAS DCUSoCsFront camera(satellite)20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx12Since L3 regulation is delayed/unclear,industry focus shifts towards advanced L2+/+systems with driver liabilityRationale for the introduction of L2+Source:Desk research;SAE;Roland BergerLiabilityBackground/motivationFeatures L3 requires OEMs to be liable for thesystem even if thedriver is required torapidly take over L2+solves the issues of unclear/delayed L3 regulation as drivers have to act as fallback-ready usersLevel 2+/+Level 2Level 3Temporary hands offTemporary hands offACC+TJAEyes off possible,but driver has to resume control at system requestDriver is responsibleDriver is responsibleOEM is liableHWAA.lanechangeHWPAESL3-like functionalityL2-like liabilityL2+/+systems offer L3-like functionality,but as in L2 systems the driver is liable,not the OEM as in L3However,a clear standard or industry-agreed definition of L2+/+does not exist20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx13Ford,GM and Tesla have started to sell their hands-off ADAS solutions as subscription models USD 1,595(F-150)to 3,200(Mach-E)upfront(dep.on trim)Thereof,USD 600 for the first three years of service for the BlueCruisesoftware After that,continued use of the technology will require a subscription USD 2,500 upfront for HW(depending on model/trim)After three-year free trial period,subscription will cost USD 25 per month(standalone basis)Alternatively,it can be added to certain OnStar plans or bundles for USD 15 per monthPricingSelected OEM ADAS OTA offeringsBlueCruiseSuper CruiseUSD 10,000 for hardware and lifetime FSD software updatesIntroduction of subscription model 200 USD per month2021 Ford F-150&Mustang Mach-E that are equipped with Co-Pilot360AvailabilityLaunched with 2018 Cadillac CT6,now also 2021s CT4,CT5,EscaladeAP v7 launched 2015,FSD v9 launched H2/2021 All modelsSource:Desktop research;Roland BergerFront camera,radars,DMSSensorsFront camera,radars,DMS,ultrasonic sensors8 cameras(360),no radar,DMSHands-free on 100,000 miles of approved highways in North AmericaODDHands-free on 200,000 miles of approved highways in North AmericaAny major highway(FSD currently allows limited use on city streets in certain situations)Autopilot/FSD20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx14With more hands-off scenarios in L2+/+systems,the importance of drivermonitoring systems increasesGM and Tesla driver monitoring systemsSource:Electrek;Roland BergerTesla starts using in-car camera for Autopilot driver monitoringTheV(May 27,2021)Tesla Autopilot loses to GM Super Cruise due to lack of driver monitoring in industry-wide testelectrek.co(October 28,2020)C.Long-term ADAS/AD development 2030+20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx16In the future,zonal architectures lead to consolidation and commoditization of hardware by 2030,OEMs expected to move with different speedSource:Huawei,Roland BergerDistributed:EstablishedDomain-centralized in volume 2025+GatewayDCUECUCentral computerZonal computerSensors/ActuatorE/E architecture roadmapZonal in volume 2030+Single SW platform,full HW abstractionCentral vehicle computer(s)Domain-independent geographic zone controllers Bundling of functions into safety-critical and non-safety-critical partitions Redundant central vehicle computer for safety-critical tasks 2-4(geographic)zones non-safety-critical tasks,Full consolidation and commoditization of SoC based computing hardware starting in 2026 at volume in 2030,reducing Tier-1 value share Car treated like a data center with complete hardware abstraction20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx17Combining new mobility concepts with automated driving,robocabs could provide a cheap and convenient alternative to owning a car Adjusted for inflation,the cost to own and operate a personal car has not changed since the Model T rolled off the first assembly line ARK estimates that,at scale,autonomous taxis will cost consumers USD 0.25 per mile,spurring widespread adoptionCost per mile of a personally owned vehicle 2020 USDSource:ARK Investment Management LLC,2020;Morton Salt Company Records;American Automobile Association(AAA)Note:ARK had estimated previously that an autonomous taxi could price at USD 0.35 per mile.We have refined our estimates and believe that aoutonomous taxis could be even cheapter at only USD 0.25 per mile1)Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon187119341950201620251)1.700.700.700.700.2520211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx18AD players have launched first robotaxi services and target autonomy by mid of the decadeAutonomous vehicle announcementsSource:Desk research;Roland BergerChina202120222023202420252026Selection Not exhaustiveTrucksGlobal20192023:3 m users with a fleet of 3,000 robotaxis2021:Robotaxi service launch in Beijing2019:Ride-sharing program launch in US2020:Driverless service launched in in Phoenix2024:L4 autonomoustrucks2021:Supervised L4autonomous trucks2024:L4 autonomoustrucks2025:Consumer-grade autonomy2022:Robotaxi service launch in Israel,France20202021:FSD Beta v9(L2+)2020:Reveal of prototype2020:AutonomousFreight Network launch2021:First Permit for Autonomous Trips with Passengers20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx19Significant differences between countries with regards to legal frame for AV commercialization USA,UK,Germany and Singapore most advanced1)Germany Status Jul 2021 2)National Highway and Transportation Safety Administration 3)Automated Driving SystemsSource:Roland Berger Automotive Disruption Radar GermanyAllows level 4 autonomous driving on public roads for defined use cases3)FranceGovernment with right to adapt rules of highway code to AV development RussiaTesting of AVs postponed to 2021,concept for road safety with AVs approved by government in March 20ChinaNational standards for Automotive Driving Automation Classification implemented on Jan 1,2021JapanAims to allow level 4 autonomous driving at 40 areas by 2025SingaporeNational 2020 budget included SGD 6 m to support AV testbedsUSANHTSA2)released new federal guidelines for ADS3)in Sept 20UKAV and EV legislation enacted for three year period in Jul 18Step 1Highest limitation for type approval:Initial discussions ongoingStep 2Basic regulatory scene for type approval setStep 3Regulationfor concrete type approval process in progressStep 4Regulationfor concrete type approval process in decision phaseStep 5No limitation for type approvalApproval process for L4&L5(Jan 2021)1)20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx20Computing hardware enabling level 4 autonomy is announced Power consumption remains a very significant challengeIndicator ratingNo activityFeasibility provenDevelopment road-maps in placeRoadmap-milestone achievedCommercialization towards deflection pointDeflection point arrivedSelf-driving vehicles require an estimated computing power1)of level 5:2.000-4.000 TOPS;level 4:300 1.000 TOPSLeading Semcos such as NVIDIA,Intel and Qualcomm have announced products with sufficient computing power for level 4 autonomyContinuous sensor resolution increases lead to a steady increase in necessary computing power-Requirements are evolvingCurrent L2+advanced driver assistance functions use a computing power of approx.10-30 TOPSComputing power consumption remains a very significant challenge Announced level 4 boards use approx.1 kW of electrical power.Startups and selected OEMSs work on ICs with significantly better energy consumptionTechnologySource:Desk research,Expert interviews,Roland Berger1)Semiconductors that are specifically developed for autonomous driving will require less computing power and achieve higher performance per WattAutonomous vehicle Computing power:Current status20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx2159%of people think Level 4/5 vehicles should be on the roads by 2030 globally India,ME,China,SGP are the highest AV believers Source:RB online survey July 2021:23,691 participants -Participants by country:Belgium(1,008);Brazil(1,010);Canada(1,020);China(1,014);France(1,014);Germany(1,005);India(1,003);Indonesia(1,016);Israel(1,381);Italy(1,015);Japan(1,018);Netherlands(1,011);Norway(1,053);Russia(1,005);Saudi Arabia(1,008);Singapore(1,018);South Korea(1,012);Spain(1,012);Sweden(1,017);Thailand(1,025);UAE(1,013);UK(1,000);USA(1,013)When do you believe we will have level 4/5 autonomous vehicles,ie fully autonomous vehicles without drivers,commercially operational(not for testing)on the roads?17%14%15%4%5%11%5%11%4%5%5%3%7%3%5%7%4%4%6%3%3%3%3%6%34%34%28%35%28%25%24%23%20%22%18%18%19%19%15%18%15%14%10%11%14%12%11%20%30%32%33%36%35%31%38%31%39%35%37%36%30%32%32%27%30%31%33%30%27%24%25%32%8%11%12%15%14%13%11%13%15%17%18%17%14%15%13%15%16%16%10%18%17%18%19%15%7%8%9%9%13%15%14%17%16%17%17%19%16%22%15%16%21%22%21%20%21%23%19%17%4%1%3%1%5%5%8%5%6%4%5%7%14%9%20%17%14%13%20%18%18%20%23%10%ChinaIndiaKSAUKGermanyUAEThailandBelgiumSingaporeNetherlandsNorwayIsraelItalyIndonesiaSouth KoreaBrazilSpainUSARussiaFranceCanadaJapanSwedenGLOBAL20222025203020352040NeverBefore 203020211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx2255%of people globally are ready to use robotaxis,but there is a high variance across countries20%RussiaChinaFranceSpain87%45%Nether-lands68%13%80%52%India21%58%46%79%UAE32%YesSingaporeSouth Korea41%33%UK54%67%Italy36%64%USASweden37%63%42%58%Japan46%54%Saudi Arabia48%46%55%Germany55%45%55%45%54%56%No44%Bel