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Global Corporate CapitalFlows,2008/9 to 2013/14A study of the investment intentions of companies in 15 countries around the world.June 2008 TAX Across KPMGs global network of member firms,we have 22,000 tax professionals.The insights they offer-both in local tax knowledge and cross-border tax skills-provides organizations,both large and small,with clear and defendable advantage in the immediate and long-term.And crucially,through the deep industry knowledge of our people and multi-disciplinary approach,we are able to help our firms clients to think beyond the present,see beyond borders and achieve long-lasting success.For further information please visit Contents1 Introduction 2 Commentary 7 Country by country 8 The United States 9 China 10 United Kingdom 11 Germany 12 Russia 13 India 14 Brazil 15 Spain 16 Mexico 17 South Africa 18 Australia 19 Canada 20 Ireland 21 Switzerland 22 Netherlands 2008 KPMG International.KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss cooperative with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.1 Global Corporate Capital Flows,2008/9 to 2013/14 IntroductionThe only certain thing about the shape of the global economy in future is that it will be different from what we see today.To offer our member firms clients and guests an opportunity to think beyond the present,see beyond borders and debate how things might be different,we have devoted the whole of our 2008 European,Middle East and Africa Tax Summit,taking place in Barcelona,to discussions on how the global economic game is changing,and what the new rules might be.As a contribution to these discussions,we have commissioned a research project covering 15 countries around the world,asking over 300 corporate investment strategists,plus representatives of private equity funds and sovereign wealth funds,where and how they expect to be investing the funds under their control both in the next 12 months,and in the next 5 years.The countries covered were the U.S.,U.K.,Germany,Spain,Netherlands,Switzerland,Ireland,Russia,India,Australia,Canada,China,Brazil,Mexico and South Africa.This is our report on what these people told us about their expectations for the world economy and their future plans.We think it gives some very clear indicators of the future direction of corporate capital flows,and raises some fundamental questions about how governments and corporations can and should react.We hope that delegates to KPMGs 2008 EMEA Tax Summit,as well as company leaders,government officials,commentators,and anyone with an interest in the future direction of the world economy,will find this an interesting and thought provoking debate,helping them to make decisions now that may add long-lasting value.Sue Bonney KPMGs Europe and EMA Head of Tax 2008 KPMG International.KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss cooperative with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.Global Corporate Capital Flows,2008/9 to 2013/14 2 Commentary Global corporate investment flows are switching from the U.S.,Japan,Singapore and some European countries to China,India,Russia and Brazil.The U.S.economy should retain its position as a world leader,but is expected to share this position with China.India is likely to lead in manufacturing investment,and the U.K.should be able to compete on equal terms with the U.S.in financial services.European economies hold up well,but governments must find a way to counter the attraction of new markets in the BRIC countries if they are to keep their share of investment.27%26%24%22%20%18%28%17%16%14%13%14%12%11%12%10%10%10%8%6%6%4%2%0%The increasing importance of the economies of China,India,Russia and Brazil(BRIC),and widespread economic concerns in Europe and the U.S.,suggest that we may now be beginning a new phase in global economic development.Companies need to ask whether the global business game is changing,and whether we know the new rules.To find out whether there really is a new pattern emerging and if so,what its implications might be,researchers asked over 300 senior corporate investment strategists in 15 countries around the world which countries(other than their own)they plan to invest in during 2008/09,and where they are looking to invest in five years time.This group of people was chosen because their investment decisions are medium to long term,they are intended to generate real growth for the companies these people run,and they are usually made on the basis of careful analysis of the underlying prospects for markets and countries.To add a slightly different perspective,researchers also carried out 10 in-depth interviews with private equity fund managers and controllers of sovereign wealth funds.These are organizations with a very significant influence on investment flows,but with a different set of priorities from corporate investors.The results point to a marked change in the pattern of investment.This year,the U.S.leads by a long way,with 27 percent of investors planning a significant investment in the country in the next 12 months.Next is China,with 17 percent,followed by the U.K.,with 14 percent,Germany with 13 percent and Russia with 12 percent.Percentage of companies expecting to make a significant investment in these countries in the next year 5%5%5%5%4%4%3%3%3%3%3%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%1%U.S.ChinaU.K.GermanyRussiaFranceIndiaBrazilItalySpainSingaporePolandMexicoSouth AfricaOtherMalaysiaIndonesiaChileAustraliaArgentinaUkraineUAETurkeyThailandRomaniaJapanDubaiCzech RepublicCanadaVietnam Source:Global Corporate Capital Flows,2008/9 to 2013/14,KPMG International 2008 KPMG International.KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss cooperative with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.3 Global Corporate Capital Flows,2008/9 to 2013/14-5%U.S.OtherUAEJapanChinaU.K.GermanyRussiaFranceIndiaBrazilItalySpainSingaporePolandMexicoSouth AfricaMalaysiaIndonesiaChileAustraliaArgentinaUkraineTurkeyThailandRomaniaDubaiCzech RepublicCanadaVietnam Source:Global Corporate Capital Flows,2008/9 to 2013/14,KPMG International 8%Change in percentage of corporates planning a significant investment,7%7%2008/09 2013/14 7%5%4%3%3%2%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%-1%-1%-1%-1%-2%-2%-2%-3%-4%-4%0%ChinaU.S.RussiaIndiaU.K.BrazilGermanyFranceSpainItalySouth AfricaMexicoAustraliaChileMalaysiaPolandSingaporeIndonesiaUkraineVietnam ThailandPhilippinesArgentinaAustriaBelgium Percentage of companies expecting to make a significant investment in these 28%26%24%countries in the next five years 23%22%20%24%19%18%17%16%18%14%13%12%14%10%10%8%7%7%6%5%6%4%4%4%4%3%3%3%4%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%Czech RepublicDubaiRomaniaTurkey Canada In five years time,however,China is expected to head the table,with 24 percent planning an investment,followed by the U.S.with 23 percent and Russia with 19 percent.Fourth,and the biggest winner overall,will be India with 18 percent,a rise of 8 percent.The U.K.will be fifth,with 17 percent.Elsewhere in the table,one of the major winners will be South Africa,where todays figure of 4 percent expecting to invest will rise to 6 percent.Source:Global Corporate Capital Flows,2008/9 to 2013/14,KPMG International 2008 KPMG International.KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss cooperative with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.U.S.U.K.GermanyChinaFranceJapanRussiaBrazilIndia Global Corporate Capital Flows,2008/9 to 2013/14 4 Although Brazil will overtake Germany and France,with Russia and India outpacing both the U.K.and Germany,the survey suggests that this is not due to any substantial decline in the attractiveness of the major European economies.Investors expect to remain broadly as enthusiastic for investments in France,Germany and the U.K.in 2013/2014 as they are today.There is a shift in sentiment away from the U.S.,and it seems likely that much of the additional investment expected to go to the BRIC economies will come from funds which would otherwise have gone to North America.Given the very high levels of funds flowing into the U.S.economy over the past five years,it is possible that investors are anticipating a return to more“normal”long term patterns of investment.Indeed,when researchers asked investors for their views on the current difficulties in the credit markets,most(76 percent)saw these as affecting investment strategies for no more than 2-3 years,and there was a strong view that todays problems represented a process returning the markets to normality after several years of abnormal conditions.But a return to the market conditions of,say,2003 would not explain the change that investors expect in the countries with most commercial influence in their sector.Asked which are the top three countries dominating their sector today,65 percent ranked the U.S.as most dominant,followed by the U.K.with 36 percent,Germany with 32 percent,China with 30 percent,France with 18 percent and Japan with 12 percent.Percentage of corporates declaring these countries dominant in their sector now 70%65%60%50%40%36%32%30%30%18%20%12%10%7%7%10%0%Source:Global Corporate Capital Flows,2008/9 to 2013/14,KPMG International Percentage of corporates expecting these countries to be dominant in their sector in five years 70%59%60%50%45%40%29%30%25%21%20%14%13%10%9%10%0%Source:Global Corporate Capital Flows,2008/9 to 2013/14,KPMG International 2008 KPMG International.KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss cooperative with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.U.S.ChinaU.K.GermanyIndiaFranceRussiaJapanBrazil 5 Global Corporate Capital Flows,2008/9 to 2013/14 Looking ahead,although the U.S.,U.K.and Germany are still highly influential with respondents,their dominance is expected to reduce in favor of China,which moves into second place with 45 percent of responses.More surprising,Japan,for so long an industrial and technological powerhouse,is displaced by India which also overtakes France.In some sectors,this shift in influence is even more marked.According to respondents China will become the world leader in mining,industrial products,and IT/telecoms,with India becoming the leader in manufacturing investment and the U.K.competing on equal terms with the U.S.for investment in financial services.Coming from this particular group of people,this is,by itself,evidence of a significant shift in their expectations of future global economic power.If the survey respondents are changing their view,and given that the investment decisions they make are usually based on good evidence,thorough analysis and caution,it is worth looking more closely at what attributes they look for in a country before investing,to see what this might say about these new economic giants.The first point to make is that when choosing their preferred country for investment in the next five years,with the exception of India,the majority of investors(71 percent)were not making their first entry into the country.Just under half(42 percent)were planning to use profits from existing investments in the country to consolidate or expand their operations.So a large proportion of this group are reinvesting the results of earlier,successful investments or are using new funds to increase their exposure to these markets.This suggests that many respondents are not in the early,high risk stages of their involvement in a new economy,but have satisfied themselves through experience that these markets work and investments can be made safely and with confidence.Asked what are the main attributes they look for in a country before investing,the most popular was access to new customers,followed closely by political,legal and regulatory stability and predictability.Quality of labor was generally valued much more highly than low cost of labor.Most influential factors when choosing a country for investment,rated on a scale of 1(least important)to 5(most important)5 3.964 3.68 3.53 3.45 3.40 3.23 3.21 3.09 3.05 2.87 2.843 2 1 0 Access to newcustomersPoliticalstabilityImpartialrule of lawInfrastructureRegulatoryclimateTax regimeHigh qualityof laborCultural fitTransportReengineering thebusiness modelReengineeringthe supply chainLow labor costs Source:Global Corporate Capital Flows,2008/9 to 2013/14,KPMG International 2008 KPMG International.KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss cooperative with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated.2.69 Global Corporate Capital Flows,2008/9 to 2013/14 6 Tax policy is a factor,but stability is more important than a low corporate tax rate or specific incentives like tax holidays.One respondent commented that governments understand very well the impact that their tax policies can have on inward investment,and are unlikely to act against their own interests.Another described certain tax regimes as“an irritant”,but no more.So if investors are looking for good market opportunities,broad social stability,predictability of outcomes and a commercially aware approach to taxation,and are planning to increase their investments in the BRIC economies,it is reasonable to conclude that they are finding what they want in these countries.The results of this survey are a strong vote of confidence in the efforts that these countries have been making to hasten their economic and social development.For European countries,these results present a dilemma.Corporate investment clearly flows to new markets,and there is little that Europeans can do in the short term to match the population and prosperity growth of the emerging economic giants.However,the results also show that corporates like stability and predictability,and it may be that developing and emphasizing the quality of social infrastructure in the European economies presents a new route forward for Europe.It is less clear what respondents think about the U.S.It could be interpreted as a vote against high levels of regulation and a relatively high tax burden,but both of these attributes are also found in the economies of Western Europe,and investment in these countries seems,in the short term,broadly unchanged.It seems most likely that we are indeed seeing a return to long term patterns of investment from corporate investors,but this must be of little comfort to U.S.organizations looking for new capital and finding foreign investors less willing to provide it.It is possible,however,that demand for investment could be met from other sources.A large majority of those polled(61 percent)expected the influence of private equity funds on global investments to increase in the next five years,and a similar proportion(62 percent)expected sovereign wealth funds to do the same.But people were divided on whether these new sources of capital are necessarily a good thing.Nearly a quarter(24 percent)of respondents said that they would not welcome an investment from a soverei