2024年亚洲及太平洋经济社会概览（英）.pdf

Boosting affordable and longer-term financing for governmentsEconomic and Social Surveyof Asia and the PacificBoosting affordable and longer-term financingfor governments公共债务 deuda pblica dette publique public debt2024Economic and Social Surveyof Asia and the PacificBoosting affordable and longer-term financingfor governments公共债务 deuda pblica dette publique public debt2024B|Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2024The Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(ESCAP)is the most inclusive intergovernmental platform in the Asia-Pacific region.The Commission promotes cooperation among its 53 member States and 9 associate members in pursuit of solutions to sustainable development challenges.ESCAP is one of the five regional commissions of the United Nations.The ESCAP secretariat supports inclusive,resilient and sustainable development in the region by generating action-oriented knowledge,and by providing technical assistance and capacity-building services in support of national development objectives,regional agreements and the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.*The designations employed and the presentation of material on this map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country,territory,city or area or of its authorities,or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.The shaded areas of the map indicate ESCAP members and associate members.*Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific2024Boosting affordable and longer-term financing for governmentsEconomic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2024Boosting affordable and longer-term financing for governmentsUnited Nations PublicationLanguage:ENGLISHSales no.:E.24.II.F.3Copyright United Nations 2024All rights reservedPrinted in BangkokISBN:9789210031158eISBN:9789213589137ISSN:0252-5704eISSN:2412-0979Photo CreditsCover:Dmytro Sunagatov/Adobe StockChapter 1:Paakpoom Pajjangkata;Lazy_Bear;olyphotostories;and Lemonsoup14/Adobe StockChapter 2:Joo Macedo;and narawit/Adobe StockChapter 3:Freshidea;EtiAmmos;1st footage;and alphaspirit/Adobe StockChapter 4:Photon_photo;svetolk;freshidea;Photobank;and Wuttichai/Adobe StockMention of firm names and commercial products does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations.This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder,provided that the source is acknowledged.The ESCAP Publications Office would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source.No use may be made of this publication for resale or any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission.Applications for such permission,with a statement of the purpose and extent of reproduction,should be addressed to the Secretary of the Publications Board,United Nations,New York.ForewordGovernments of developing countries across Asia and the Pacific are victims of an unjust,outdated and dysfunctional global financial architecture.They face fiscal constraints,rising borrowing rates with shorter loan maturity,and heavy debt burdens.Up to half of low-income countries in the region are already in,or at high risk of,debt distress,forced to choose between servicing debt or investing in education,health and social protection for their people.There are signs of hope.At the SDG Summit in 2023,world leaders endorsed the SDG Stimulus to provide more affordable long-term financing for developing countries and the need to reform the global financial architecture work that must move from words to action.This report highlights ways in which countries across Asia and the Pacific can strengthen access to financing.This includes working with donors,multilateral development banks and credit rating agencies to boost affordable financing and investment pathways in sustainable transitions,and making vital improvements to public-revenue collection and domestic savings.The United Nations will continue standing with countries across Asia and the Pacific in their calls for justice,and as they invest in a better,more prosperous and peaceful future for the 4.7 billion people who call this extraordinary region home.Our world is engulfed in a perfect storm.The ongoing effects of the cost-of-living crisis are joined by multiple conflicts,geopolitical tensions,rising mistrust,and the triple planetary crisis of climate change,biodiversity loss and pollution.The Sustainable Development Goals are at risk of slipping away,with vital systems to address hunger,poverty and inequality being starved of urgently needed investment.The Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2024 reminds us that a lack of financial support for developing countries is at the core of these crises.Antnio GuterresSecretary-General ofthe United NationsArmida Salsiah AlisjahbanaUnder-Secretary-General of the United Nationsand Executive Secretary of ESCAPPrefaceThe 2024 edition of the Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific depicts a mixed picture of the regions economic landscape.While there has been an upturn in the average economic growth rate in 2023 and projected steady growth for 2024 and 2025,showcasing the regions robust economic resilience,the rebound was uneven,limited to a few large economies.High inflation and interest rates,coupled with weak external demand and heightened geopolitical uncertainty,are casting shadows over near-term economic prospects.Moreover,despite the appearance of relatively steady economic growth,there are underlying issues,such as subdued job creation,weakened purchasing power and increased poverty and socioeconomic inequalities across the region.Beyond managing near-term macroeconomic challenges,Governments of countries in the region have a major task at hand.At the current pace of implementation,there will be a staggering 32-year delay before the Sustainable Development Goals have been achieved.To significantly accelerate progress towards achieving these Goals,more investment is urgently needed in such transformative areas as energy,digital connectivity,social protection and climate change.As the Survey for 2024 underscores,enhancing the availability of affordable and long-term financing for Governments is pivotal in this endeavor.It is crucial to dispel the misconception that higher public debt levels inevitably lead to higher debt distress.In fact,strategic deployment of public debt to invest in the Sustainable Development Goals not only benefits people and the environment but also contributes to lowering public debt as a percentage of gross domestic product over the long term.Addressing persistent challenges requires innovative solutions.For example,to enhance public revenue collection,policymakers can,in addition to digitalizing tax administration,explore how behavioural science can raise societys willingness to pay taxes.Fiscal schemes to leverage the increase in land values brought about by better public infrastructure also offer untapped resources.International development partners must adopt fresh perspectives to better align their efforts with evolving needs.Official development assistance should prioritize countries with wider development financing gaps and higher vulnerability to shocks.Multilateral development banks should weigh the need to maintain their top-notch credit ratings with the growing development needs of developing countries by providing more lending out of the existing capital base.Credit rating agencies should adopt a longer-term lens and appreciate that public investments in sustainable development raise sovereign creditworthiness over time.Meanwhile,debate continues on whether Asia and the Pacific needs a new credit rating agency that better understands the regions development context.In this context,ESCAP can play an important role in achieving these domestic and multilateral policy actions by facilitating dialogues and knowledge-sharing within the region and beyond.As we gear up for the eightieth session of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific and the Summit of the Future in 2024,it is time to act collaboratively to revive optimism for multilateralism.Only multilateral solutions can address the changing global financial and development context and challenges.Executive SummarySteady economic performance amid increasing poverty and inequality concernsRelatively steady economic growth and moderating inflation in 2023 Average economic growth in the developing Asia-Pacific region picked up from 3.5 per cent in 2022 to 4.8 per cent in 2023.The rebound was concentrated in only a few large economies though,such as in China after it lifted COVID-19 pandemic restrictions and in the Russian Federation due to higher military-related investments.Meanwhile,India has become the worlds fastest-growing major economy in 2023 amid strong household consumption and public investment in infrastructure.Elsewhere in the region,output growth in most economies moderated in 2023.Export-oriented countries faced weak external demand,especially from China and Europe.International tourist arrivals in the region stood at only 62 per cent of pre-pandemic levels compared with the global average of 87 per cent.On the domestic front,although global commodity prices have receded from their 2022 peaks,household consumption remained restrained due to a relatively high average rate of inflation at 5.2 per cent in 2023.The subsequent monetary policy tightening,necessary to tame inflation,has contributed to rising debt servicing burdens.This situation,together with subdued external demand and considerable uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions,suppressed capital investment.Subdued job creation and risk of rising poverty and inequality remain concerning nonetheless High inflation,including of food items,in developing Asia-Pacific economies in the past few years have eroded peoples purchasing power and deepened food security concerns.Many Governments have instituted fiscal measures,such as cash transfers and food vouchers,to help people cope with the high cost of living,but room for sustained support is limited amid Governments tighter fiscal positions.At the same time,creation of formal and decent jobs remains subdued,while informal and vulnerable employment has increased somewhat.Moreover,as many more women are informal workers with no access to social protection,this situation is deepening gender inequality.New estimates by ESCAP show that the pandemic and the cost of living crisis may have pushed almost 42 million more people in the region into extreme poverty in 2022.Income inequality is also likely to widen,as the real value of national minimum wages for several countries have declined between 2020 and 2022.This further weakens the ability of lower-income groups to cope with job losses and high food prices.Near-term economic prospects are clouded by downside risksEconomic growth in the developing Asia-Pacific region is projected to decline somewhat to 4.4 per cent in both in 2024 and 2025.The moderation is most notable in East and North-East Asia,in contrast to an expected economic rebound in South-East Asia and a relatively stable trend in other subregions.Overall,supported by declining inflation,household consumption would continue to drive output growth in the near term amid weak external demand.Inflation is projected to decrease to still relatively high levels of 4.8 and 3.8 per cent in 2024 and 2025,respectively.As such,policy interest rate cuts may not be instituted as soon and their scale not be as large as desired in many economies.Concerns regarding capital outflows,exchange rate volatility and overall financial stability in the wake of higher interest rates in the United States of America are also likely to delay interest rate reductions in the region.As with the monetary policy stance,the fiscal conditions are expected to remain rather tight given rising public debt distress and sovereign debt servicing costs.The baseline projections are subject to several downside risks,such as uncertainty relating to inflation trends,including the impact of El Nio phenomenon,and thus the monetary policy stance,the depth and duration of Chinas economic slowdown and escalation of geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation within the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.The challenging economic outlook has direct implications for the ability of countries in the region to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.Executive Summary|v vi|Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2024The need for affordable and long-term financing for GovernmentsRealizing a global agenda,articulated in the Secretary-Generals SDG Stimulus to Deliver Agenda 2030,in Asia and the Pacific The United Nations Secretary-General proposed the SDG Stimulus in February 2023,calling for immediate actions to reduce government borrowing costs and make debt longer term.He also called for an increase in financing for sustainable development and reforms to the international financial architecture.During the High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development under the auspices of the General Assembly in September 2023,world leaders declared their commitment to advancing the SDG Stimulus.While a strong and fair taxation system and efficient and effective public spending should remain the backbone for financing essential public investments,Governments will need to borrow in order to finance large sustainable development investment needs.As these investments offer notable socioeconomic and environmental benefits but with low or zero financial returns,government borrowing costs should be kept at a low level.Lending to Governments should also be for a longer period,as analyses in recent issues of the Survey show that the benefits of investing in the Sustainable Development Goals,including a lower public debt level,take at least 15-20 years to become clearly visible.If government debt must be repaid before these payoffs materialize,fiscal positions will remain weaker,thus discouraging public investments for a brighter future.Lending to Governments in the Asia-Pacific region remains expensive and short term For Asia and the Pacific,the share of external public debt owed to official creditors dropped from 54 per cent in 2010 to 35 per cent in 2022.As such,private creditors,bondholders in particular,have now become the main creditors for countries in the region.The increasing reliance on loans from private creditors matters because they charge higher interest rates and offer shorter maturity.The regions average interest rate on new external public debt committed in 2022 from private creditors increased from 3.9 to 5.0 per cent during the period 2017-2021.The same rate from official creditors remained at about 2.1 per cent throughout the years 2020-2022.Meanwhile,the average maturity period of new e