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P A T H W A Y S T O I N D U S T R I A L D E C A R B O N I S A T I O N1P H A S E 3 REP ORT -FE B RUA RY 20 23W W W.E N E RGY T R A N S I T ION S I N I T I AT I V E.ORGAustralian Industry ETI is convened by Climateworks Centre and Climate-KIC AustraliaPathways to industrial decarbonisation Positioning Australian industry to prosper in a net zero global economyThe Australian Industry Energy Transitions Initiative(Australian Industry ETI)is funded by a combination of philanthropy and industry participants,and has also received funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency(ARENA)as part of ARENAs Advancing Renewables Program.The views expressed herein are not necessarily the views of the Australian government,and the Australian government does not accept responsibility for any information or advice contained herein.The Australian Industry ETI is convened by Climateworks Centre,operating within the Monash Sustainable Development Institute,and Climate-KIC Australia,in collaboration with the Energy Transitions Commission and delivery partners CSIRO,RMI(formerly Rocky Mountain Institute)and BloombergNEF.The Australian Industry ETIs industry participants and supporters have contributed to the research,findings,conclusions and messages in this report.Industry participants have collaborated in the development of,and have had oversight of,the model inputs and architecture of the report.Industry participants endorse,in a general way,the central themes and findings of the report relating to the need for ambitious,coordinated action to meet the significant challenges involved in transitioning Australias energy system and broader economy in order to limit warming to 1.5C above preindustrial levels,and in relation to the potential opportunities for Australias economy if strong,effective and coordinated action is achieved.While this report provides an evidence-based,independent analysis informed by consultation with industry,it does not necessarily reflect the position of each individual participant.This report contains statements that are,or may be deemed to be,forward looking statements,including goals,pathways and ambitions for the supply chains in focus.Such forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve known and unknown risks,uncertainties and other factors,many of which are beyond the control of the Australian Industry ETI.Participants:Australian Gas Infrastructure Group,APA Group,Aurecon,AustralianSuper,BHP,BlueScope Steel,bp Australia,Cbus,the Clean Energy Finance Corporation,Fortescue Metals Group,HSBC,Orica,National Australia Bank,Rio Tinto,Schneider Electric,Wesfarmers Chemicals,Energy&Fertilisers,Westpac and Woodside Energy.Supporters:Australian Industry Group and the Australian Industry Greenhouse Network.This report is the result of three years engagement with Australias emissions-intensive industry and related businesses to coordinate learning and action,and develop pathways and projects towards achieving net zero emissions supply chains in Australia by mid-century.This report was written by Climateworks Centre specialists and Paul Graham from CSIRO,with significant contributions from reviewers within Climateworks Centre,Climate-KIC Australia and the Energy Transitions Commission(ETC).Jobs figures in this report were provided by Accenture Australia and developed from data provided by Climateworks Centre and CSIRO on a range of carbon abatement opportunities in Australian Industry ETI supply chains.A full analysis of jobs figures can be found in the companion jobs report.We acknowledge and pay our respect to the Traditional Owners and Elders past and present of the lands and waters on which program participants operate nationally.AcknowledgementsP A T H W A Y S T O I N D U S T R I A L D E C A R B O N I S A T I O N3Pathways to industrial decarbonisationClimateworks Centre and Climate-KIC Australia 2023,Pathways to industrial decarbonisation:Positioning Australian industry to prosper in a net zero global economy,Australian Industry Energy Transitions Initiative,Phase 3,Climateworks Centre.ISBN:978-0-9924232-6-1 Positioning Australian industry to prosper in a net zero global economyPhase 3 report,February 2023Authors Dr Tyra Horngren Dr Tessa Leach Ro Maxwell Paul Graham Rob Kelly Kylie Turner Anna Malos Contributors Peter Carton,Meredith England,Jay Gordon,Alasdair Graham,Mike Hemsley,Ita Kettleborough,Philip Lake,Rafal Malinowski,Hannah Maral,Jason Nielsen,Laura SimesA U S T R A L I A N I N D U S T R Y E N E R G Y T R A N S I T I O N S I N I T I A T I V E 4Contents Acknowledgements 2Table of Figures 6Foreword by Simon McKeon 8Executive summary 91.Introduction 142.Pathway for heavy industry decarbonisation 22 2.1 Decarbonisation aligned to 1.5C requires a significant stretch in efforts 22 2.2 The decarbonisation of Australias industrial supply chains will require a transformational shift in Australias energy system 25 2.3 Australia is one of the better placed economies set to benefit from a global energy transition 46 2.4 Achieving the energy transition will involve challenges but these can be overcome.473.Focus on iron and steel 49 3.1 Iron and steel production assumptions 51 3.2 Technology deployment timeline 51 3.3 Iron and steel supply chain decarbonisation 54 3.4 Momentum is building across the Australian and global iron and steel industry 64 3.5 Enabling the transition 654.Focus on aluminium 70 4.1 Aluminium supply chain production assumptions 72 4.2 Technology deployment timeline 72 4.3 Aluminium supply chain decarbonisation 76 4.4 Momentum is building across the Australian and global aluminium industry 83 4.5 Enabling the transition 84P A T H W A Y S T O I N D U S T R I A L D E C A R B O N I S A T I O N55.Focus on other metals 90 5.1 Other metals production assumptions 92 5.2 Technology deployment timeline 93 5.3 Other metals supply chain decarbonisation 94 5.4 Momentum is building across Australian and global other metals industries 101 5.5 Enabling the transition 1026.Focus on chemicals 107 6.1 Chemicals production assumptions 109 6.2 Technology deployment timeline 109 6.3 Chemicals supply chain decarbonisation 115 6.4 Momentum is building across the Australian and global chemicals industry 122 6.5 Enabling the transition 1237.Focus on LNG 128 7.1 LNG production assumptions 130 7.2 Technology deployment timeline 132 7.3 LNG supply chain decarbonisation 135 7.4 Momentum is building across the Australian and global LNG industry 142 7.5 Enabling the transition 1428.Enabling the transition to net zero emissions in Australian industry 148 8.1 Enablers of a coordinated transition 149 8.2 Recommended actions to unlock 1.5C-aligned pathways 1579.Conclusion and summary of recommended actions 174References 179Glossary 192A U S T R A L I A N I N D U S T R Y E N E R G Y T R A N S I T I O N S I N I T I A T I V E 6Table of FiguresFigure A:Priority objectives for action11Figure B:Findings for key enablers12Figure C:Supply chain snapshot13Figure 1.01:The significance of the Australian Industry ETI supply chains15Figure 1.02:Estimated emissions from downstream use of selected Australian commodity exports compared with Australias domestic emissions16Figure 1.03:Global carbon budget at different likelihoods of limiting warming to 1.5C17Figure 1.04:Climate ambition in the three core scenarios20Figure 2.01:Annual emissions in the Australian Industry ETI scenarios23Figure 2.02:Cumulative emissions in the Australian Industry ETI scenarios24Figure 2.03:Annual emissions from industry in the Australian Industry ETI scenarios24Figure 2.04:Cumulative investment in renewable energy and industry abatement technologies by 205025Figure 2.05:Changes in industry energy use over time in the Coordinated action scenario26Figure 2.06:Electricity generation mix in the Coordinated action scenario27Figure 2.07:Electricity required for the Coordinated action with exports sensitivity29Figure 2.08:Renewable energy capacity in the Coordinated action scenario and Coordinated action with exports sensitivity29Figure 2.09:Renewable generation capacity instalments in Australia and the scale of instalments needed to achieve the Coordinated action scenario and Coordinated action with exports sensitivity30Figure 2.10:Cumulative electricity system expenditure in the Australian Industry ETI scenarios(2020-2050)31Figure 2.11:Hydrogen production routes considered in the Coordinated action scenario in the Australian Industry ETI analysis32Figure 2.12:.Levelised cost of hydrogen in NEM states33Figure 2.13:Hydrogen production in the Australian Industry ETI scenarios34Figure 2.14:State-level green hydrogen production costs in 205035Figure 2.15:Storage capacity requirements in 2050 relative to renewable capacity36Figure 2.16:Weighted average cost of electricity and transmission over time37Figure 2.17:Electricity prices for general market customers in 205037Figure 2.18:Electricity prices for green hydrogen producers in 205038Figure 2.19:Electricity prices for different customer segments in 205039Figure 2.20:Potential drivers of green hydrogen production location and transport40Figure 2.21:.Model findings for hydrogen production locations in the Coordinated action scenario in 205041Figure 2.22:Model findings for hydrogen production locations in the Coordinated action with exports sensitivity in 205042Figure 2.23:Australian industrial energy needs in 2030 under two scenarios43Figure 2.24:Energy needed for hydrogen production in the SWIS in 2040 under two scenarios43Figure 2.25:Quantities and types of hydrogen produced in 2030 under different gas prices45Figure 2.26:Global electricity costs in 2030 and 205046Figure 2.27:Challenges for the energy transition47Figure 3.01:Assumed relative production changes in Australia under the Coordinated action scenario51Figure 3.02:Technology deployment timeline for the decarbonisation of iron and steel in the Coordinated action scenario52Figure 3.03:Steel production routes53Figure 3.04:Challenges for iron and steel decarbonisation in Australia54Figure 3.05:Hematite-goethite and magnetite processing56P A T H W A Y S T O I N D U S T R I A L D E C A R B O N I S A T I O N7Figure 3.06:Changes in fuel use for iron ore mining and iron and steelmaking in the Coordinated action scenario58Figure 3.07:Electricity generation required for the decarbonisation of the iron and steel supply chain in the Coordinated action scenario59Figure 3.08:Electricity and cumulative investment(2020-2050)needed to unlock Australias green iron export opportunity61Figure 3.09:Cumulative investment in steelmaking technologies in the Coordinated action scenario62Figure 3.10:Objectives and recommended actions for iron and steel65Figure 4.01:Assumed relative production changes in Australia under the Coordinated action scenario72Figure 4.02:Technology deployment timeline for the decarbonisation of the aluminium supply chain in the Coordinated action scenario73Figure 4.03:Cumulative investment in low-emissions technologies in the Coordinated action scenario74Figure 4.04:Selection of technology options to decarbonise the aluminium supply chain75Figure 4.05:Challenges for aluminium decarbonisation76Figure 4.06:Electricity generated from fossil fuel and renewable sources for aluminium smelting79Figure 4.07:Changes in fuel use for bauxite mining with the corresponding rise in electricity generation requirements in the Coordinated action scenario80Figure 4.08:Objectives and recommended actions for aluminium84Figure 5.01:Assumed relative production changes in Australia under the Coordinated action scenario93Figure 5.02:Technology deployment timeline for the decarbonisation of other metals in the Coordinated action scenario94Figure 5.03:Challenges for other metals decarbonisation in Australia94Figure 5.04:Changes in fuel use for other metals mining and haulage with the corresponding rise in electricity generation requirements in the Coordinated action scenario97Figure 5.05:Cumulative investment in low-emissions technologies in the Coordinated action scenario99Figure 5.06:Objectives and recommended actions for other metals102Figure 6.01:Assumed relative production changes in Australia under the Coordinated action scenario 109Figure 6.02:Conventional nitrogenous chemicals production110Figure 6.03:Potential ammonia emissions abatement technologies111Figure 6.04:Green ammonia production with hydrogen feedstock112Figure 6.05:Technology deployment timeline for the decarbonisation of the chemicals supply chain in the Coordinated action scenario113Figure 6.06:Cumulative expenditure on decarbonisation technologies and hydrogen for the chemicals supply chains in the Coordinated action scenario114Figure 6.07:Challenges for chemicals decarbonisation in Australia115Figure 6.08:Change in energy mix for ammonia production in the Coordinated action scenario119Figure 6.09:Hydrogen production and consumption in 2050 in the Coordinated action scenario(PJ/year)120Figure 6.10:Objectives and recommended actions for chemicals123Figure 7.01:LNG production assumptions in Australia130Figure 7.02:LNG emissions up to 2050 as part of Australias 1.5C aligned carbon budget(50 per cent probability)132Figure 7.03:Technology deployment time for the decarbonisation of LNG in the Coordinated action scenario133Figure 7.04:Cumulative investment in LNG technologies134Figure 7.05:Challenges for LNG decarbonisation in Australia135Figure 7.06:Emissions by Australian Industry ETI scenario in 2030 and 2050,including the impact of reservoir CCS136Figure 7.07:Energy mix in coordinated action and the percentage of energy used by e-drives139Figure 7.08:Objectives and recommended actions for LNG143Figure 8.01:Types of enablers of industrial decarbonisation150Figure 8.02:Cumulative investment between 2020 and 2050 in each scenario152Figure 8.03:Objectives to unlock 1.5C aligned pathways158Figure 8.04:Some emerging technologies in the Australian Industry ETI supply chains166Figure 8.05:Some mature technologies in Australian Industry ETI supply chains167A U S T R A L I A N I N D U S T R Y E N E R G Y T R A N S I T I O N S I N I T I A T I V E 8ForewordAustralian business understands the long game.Nowhere is this more apparent than in the steps business is taking to address Australias,and the worlds,decarbonisation challenge.When we started the Australian Industry Energy Transitions Initiative(Australian Industry ETI)in 2019,we invited Australian businesses to come with us on a journey.We provided a space for robust and challenging discussion and we rolled up our sleeves to understand how we could act together because what is required is of such a scale,that it necessitates strong collaboration and coordination.So much has changed since we began the program.We have lived through a global pandemic,fires and floods.We have seen firsthand,the terrible price some of us are paying for climate change and the ways in which our world is inextricably connected.Our corporate participants have collaborated
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