2026全球风险报告（英）.pdf

ContentsPrefaceOverview of methodologyKey findingsChapter 1:Global Risks 2026-2036:The Age of Competition1.1 The world in 2026:on a precipice1.2 The path to 2028:compounding risks1.3 The path to 2036:over the edge?1.4 A darkening outlookChapter 2:Global Risks In-Depth:Anticipating Tomorrows Challenges Today2.1 An underlying context of structural change2.2 Multipolarity without multilateralism2.3 Values at war2.4 An economic reckoning2.5 Infrastructure endangered2.6 Quantum leaps2.7 AI at largeEndnotesAppendix A:Definitions and Global Risks ListAppendix B:Global Risks Perception Survey 2025-2026Appendix C:Executive Opinion Survey:National Risk PerceptionsAppendix D:Risk GovernancePartner InstitutesAcknowledgements45614141518212323243240465360687578819194100Global Risks Report 20262AcknowledgementThe Global Risks Report is produced exclusively by the World Economic Forum.We are grateful to our longstanding partners on previous editions,Marsh and Zurich Insurance Group.Their generous inputs and in-depth guidance have been invaluable.Terms of use and disclaimerThis document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project,insight area or interaction.The findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum,nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders.World Economic Forum91-93 route de la Capite CH-1223 Cologny/Geneva Switzerland Tel.:[phone] Fax:[phone] E-mail:contactweforum.org www.weforum.orgCopyright 2026 by the World Economic ForumAll rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced,stored in a retrieval system,or transmitted,in any form or by any means,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,or otherwise without the prior permission of the World Economic Forum.ISBN:978-2-940631-60-5The report and an interactive data platform are available at https:/www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2026/.The Global Risks Report 2026January 2026Global Risks Report 20263Saadia Zahidi Managing DirectorThe annual Global Risks Report offers a view of global risks at the start of each year,focusing global leaders on addressing emerging challenges and their potential knock-on effects.It does not offer predictions,nor does it suggest that the future is predetermined.Instead,it provides a range of potential futures with a view to prevention and management.Three years ago,the 18th edition of the Global Risks Report considered the possibility of a“polycrisis”,as risks from multiple domains unfold at the same time.This 21st edition of the Global Risks Report explores how a new competitive order is taking shape and its impact across multiple concurrent risk domains.We are witnessing the turmoil caused by kinetic wars,the deployment of economic weapons for strategic advantage,and growing fragmentation across societies.And as these“here and now”risks unfold,longer-term challenges,from technological acceleration to environmental decline,continue to create knock-on effects across systems.In parallel,rules and institutions that have long underpinned stability are increasingly deadlocked or ineffective in managing this turbulence.While this report examines the worst-case scenarios across domains,it is also clear that new forms of global cooperation are already unfolding even amid competition,and the global economy is demonstrating resilience in the face of uncertainty.This shifting landscape,where cooperation looks markedly different than it did yesterday,reflects a pragmatic reality:collaborative approaches remain essential to sustain economic growth,accelerate innovation responsibly,and build adaptive capacity for an increasingly complex era.This report examines a future where todays relative resilience breaks down in the face of unprecedented turbulence,defined by the accelerating scale,interconnectedness and speed of global risks.Among contributors to the reports survey and narrative,negative perceptions of the future are mounting.We find that 50%of leaders and experts surveyed anticipate either a turbulent or stormy outlook over the next two years,growing to 57%over the next 10 years with only 1%anticipating a calm outlook across each time horizon.Geoeconomic confrontation has emerged as the most severe risk over the next two years while economic risks have experienced the sharpest rises among all risk categories over the two-year timeframe,with concerns growing over an economic downturn,rising inflation and potential asset bubbles as countries face high debt burdens and volatile markets.Meanwhile,inequality is once again identified as the most interconnected global risk over the next decade,fuelling other global risks as the social contract between citizens and government falters under pressure.And as shorter-term concerns overtake shared long-term global objectives,environmental risks are being reprioritized downward in the two-year time horizon,with the majority declining in rank and exhibiting reduced severity scores,even as they remain key concerns in the ten-year time horizon.Finally,technological acceleration,while driving unprecedented opportunities,is also generating significant risks in the form of misinformation and disinformation,a top short-term concern,and creating anxiety about the potentially adverse long-term outcomes of AI,a risk that sees the sharpest increase in rank between the short term and the long term across all 33 risks covered.The first section of this report shares these and other results from the latest annual Global Risks Perception Survey,which this year brought together the views of over 1,300 global leaders and experts across academia,business,government,international organizations and civil society.The second section of this report examines six key global themes in depth and considers how the risks associated with them may unfold in the coming years.These include relatively short-to medium-term risks associated with“multipolarity without multilateralism”,“values at war”,and an“economic reckoning”as well as medium-to long-term concerns associated with“infrastructure endangered”,“quantum leaps”and“AI at large”.As nations turn inward and strategic competition intensifies,we need a clear-eyed focus on understanding the dangers that lie ahead as well as maintaining or rebuilding capacity for collective action on these shared challenges.PrefaceGlobal Risks Report 20264We would like to thank over 160 experts,including from the Global Risks Report Advisory Board,the Chief Risk Officers Community,as well as Forum C-suite communities and staff from across its eleven thematic Centres,whose insights have shaped this report.We would also like to express our gratitude to the core team that developed the report-Mark Elsner and Grace Atkinson-and to Mitali Chatterjee,Ricky Li and Eoin Cathasaigh for their support.As the Global Risks Report enters its 21st year,one lesson endures:cooperation is indispensable for global risk management.In a world with greater competition,this may be harder to achieve,but only by rebuilding trust and new forms of collaborative mechanisms can leaders steer us towards greater resilience and help shape a more stable future.The future is not a single,fixed path but a range of possible trajectories,each dependent on the decisions we make today as a global community.The challenges highlighted in this report spanning geopolitical shocks,rapid technological change,climate instability,societal strife,and economic risks underscore both the scale of the potential perils we face and our shared responsibility to shape what comes next.Global Risks Report 20265Overview of methodologyThe Global Risks Perception Survey(GRPS)has underpinned the Global Risks Report for two decades and is the World Economic Forums premier source of original global risks data.This years GRPS has brought together insights on the evolving global risks landscape from over 1,300 experts across academia,business,government,international organizations and civil society.Responses for the GRPS 2025-2026 were collected between 12 August and 22 September 2025.“Global risk”is defined as the possibility of the occurrence of an event or condition that,if it occurs,would negatively impact a significant proportion of global GDP,population or natural resources.Relevant definitions for each of the 33 global risks are included in Appendix A:Definitions and Global Risks List.The GRPS 20252026 included the following components:Risk landscape invited respondents to assess the likely impact(severity)of global risks over a one-,two-and 10-year horizon to illustrate the potential development of individual global risks over time and identify areas of key concern.Consequences asked respondents to consider the range of potential impacts of a risk arising,to highlight relationships between global risks and the potential for compounding crises.Risk governance invited respondents to reflect on which approaches have the most potential for driving action on global risk reduction and preparedness.Outlook asked respondents to predict the evolution of key aspects underpinning the global risks landscape.Refer to Appendix B:Global Risks Perception Survey 20252026 for more detail on the methodology.To complement GRPS data on global risks,the report also draws on the World Economic Forums Executive Opinion Survey(EOS)to identify risks that pose the most severe threat to each country over the next two years,as identified by over 11,000 business leaders in 116 economies.When considered in context with the GRPS,this data provides insight into local concerns and priorities and points to potential“hot spots”and regional manifestations of global risks.Refer to Appendix C:Executive Opinion Survey:National Risk Perceptions for more details.Finally,the report integrates the views of leading experts to generate foresight and to support analysis of the survey data.Contributions were collected from 161 colleagues across the World Economic Forums Centres of expertise and community meetings,drawing on private interviews and thematic workshops with experts from across academia,business,government,international organizations and civil society.These discussions were conducted from May to November 2025.Experts included the Global Risks Report Advisory Board and the Chief Risk Officers Community.Refer to Acknowledgements for more detail.Global Risks Report 20266Key findingsThe Global Risks Report 2026,the 21st edition of this annual report,marks the second half of a turbulent decade.The report analyses global risks through three timeframes to support decision-makers in balancing current crises and longer-term priorities.Chapter 1 presents the findings of this years Global Risks Perception Survey(GRPS),which captures insights from over 1,300 experts worldwide.It explores risks in the current or immediate term(in 2026),the short-to-medium term(to 2028)and in the long term(to 2036).Chapter 2 explores the range of implications of these risks and their interconnections,through six in-depth analyses of selected themes.Below are the key findings of the report,in which we compare the risk outlooks across the three-time horizons.Uncertainty is the defining theme of the global risks outlook in 2026.GRPS respondents viewed both the short-and long-term global outlook negatively,with 50%of respondents anticipating either a turbulent or stormy outlook over the next two years,deteriorating to 57%of respondents over the next 10 years(Figure 1).A further 40%and 32%,respectively,view the global outlook as unsettled over the two-and 10-year time frames,with only 1%anticipating a calm outlook across each time horizon.As global risks continue to spiral in scale,interconnectivity and velocity,2026 marks an age of competition.As cooperative mechanisms crumble,with governments retreating from multilateral frameworks,stability is under siege.A contested multipolar landscape is emerging where confrontation is replacing collaboration,and trust the currency of cooperation is losing its value.This years GRPS findings show heightened short-term concerns compared to last year,with a 14 percentage-point increase in respondents selecting a turbulent or stormy outlook over the next two years.By contrast,compared with last year,there is a five percentage-point improvement over the next 10 years in those two categories(from 62%last year to 57%this year),with a slight uptick in respondents selecting either a calm or stable outlook(up three percentage points)or an unsettled outlook(up two percentage points).Multilateralism is in retreatThe multilateral system is under pressure.Declining trust,diminishing transparency and respect for the rule of law,along with heightened protectionism,are threatening longstanding international relations,trade and investment and increasing the propensity for conflict.Geoeconomic confrontation is top of mind for respondents and was selected as the top risk most likely to trigger a material global crisis in 2026 by 18%of respondents,increasing two positions from last year(Figure 2).This is followed by State-based armed conflict,selected by a further 14%of respondents.SourceWorld Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2025-2026NoteThe percentages in the graph may not add up to 100%because values have been rounded up/down.Short-term(2 years)and long-term(10 years)global outlookFIGURE 1Unsettled:Some instability,moderate risk of global catastrophes“Which of the following best characterizes your outlook for the world over the following time periods?”Stormy:Global catastrophic risks loomingTurbulent:Upheavals and elevated risk of global catastrophesStable:Isolated disruptions,low risk of global catastrophesCalm:Negligible risk of global catastrophesShort term(2 years)Long term(10 years)1%9%10%40%32%42%8%38%19%1%Global Risks Report 20267In a world already weakened by rising rivalries,unstable supply chains and prolonged conflicts at risk of regional spillover,such confrontation carries systemic,deliberate and far-reaching global consequences,increasing state fragility.The centrality of Geoeconomic confrontation in the global risks landscape is not restricted to 2026,with respondents selecting it as the top risk over the two-year time horizon(to 2028,Figure 3),as well,up eight positions from last year(Figure D).Geoeconomic confrontation threatens the core of the interconnected global economy,as explored further in Section 2.2:Multipolarity without multilateralism.Economic risks are intensifyingEconomic risks,taken collectively,show the largest increases in ranking over the next two years,albeit from relatively low rankings last year.Economic downturn and Inflation are both up eight positions,to#11 and#21 respectively,with a similar uptick for Asset bubble burst,up seven positions to#18(Figure 4).Economic downturn has witnessed one o