2026首席经济学家展望（英）.pdf

Centre for the New Economy and SocietyChief Economists OutlookI N S I G H T R E P O R TJ A N U A R Y 2 0 2 6Images:Getty Images,UnsplashDisclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project,insight area or interaction.The findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum,nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders.2026 World Economic Forum.All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,including photocopying and recording,or by any information storage and retrieval system.Executive summary1 Economic risks outlookAsset valuationsDebt and spending2 Growth,policy and geoeconomic outlookTrade and investment outlookRegional growth and policy expectations3 AI adoption outlookRegional adoptionIndustry adoptionFirm-level adoptionContributorsEndnotes4568131315212122242629ContentsChief Economists Outlook January2January 2026Chief Economists OutlookThis briefing builds on the latest policy development research as well as consultations and surveys with leading chief economists from both the public and private sectors,organized by the World Economic Forums Centre for the New Economy and Society.It aims to summarize the emerging contours of the current economic environment and identify priorities for further action by policy-makers and business leaders in response to the compounding shocks to the global economy from geoeconomic and geopolitical events.The survey featured in this briefing was conducted from 19 November to3December 2025.Chief Economists Outlook January3Executive summaryWith 53%of chief economists expecting global economic conditions to weaken,28%expecting nochange and 19%expecting a stronger economy,the prospects for the global economy tilt towards the negative in the year ahead,albeit with improved sentiment compared to last years outlook.Drawing on a survey and dialogue with leading chiefeconomists,the World Economic Forums latest Chief Economists Outlook identifies downside risks in the form of inflated asset values,building debt pressures and intensifying geopolitical tensions,which are shifting trade and investment patterns.In the medium term,the integration of artificial intelligence(AI)remains a key source of both opportunities and risks for the global economy.In a volatile environment,financial markets have maintained an upward trend,sparking debate about the sustainability of current valuations.Someeconomists have highlighted risks associated with asset bubbles and the possibility of abrupt corrections,while others point out the underlying profitability and real investment that distinguish these firms from previous speculative episodes.Traditional safe-haven assets such as gold have regained appeal in an uncertain environment,while the trajectory of the US dollar remains akeyquestion for global investors.The issue of debt,both public and private,hasmoved to the forefront as governments and corporations contend with the legacy of prolonged borrowing and managing elevated debt levels,prompting a reassessment of fiscal approaches.Areas such as defence,digital infrastructure and energy are expected to command larger shares of public budgets,reflecting the demands of a more unpredictable world and the imperatives oftechnological change.At the same time,the need to balance these priorities with other objectives is intensifying debates about the future direction of monetary and fiscal policies.Trade and investment flows are adapting to a new era characterized by strategic competition and evolving alliances.The US and China have de-escalated trade tensions,but many underlying frictions remain unresolved.As global supply chains adjust,regional and bilateral agreements are expected to multiply while countries work to secure access to essential technologies and resources.The outlook for global trade is mixed,with some regions positioned to benefit from emerging opportunities while others face challenges from protectionist measures and policy uncertainty.Foreign direct investment is also being redirected in response to these developments,resulting in varied prospects for major economies,according to chief economists.The rapid adoption of AI stands out as both a source of optimism and a catalyst for disruption.While the potential for significant productivity improvements is widely acknowledged,the pace and distribution of these benefits are expected to vary considerably across regions,industries and firm sizes.The impact on employment remains uncertain,with divergent views on the long term and modest disruption predicted in the short term.Regional growth trajectories reflect the complex interaction of these forces.The US is experiencing a surge in investment in AI and data centre infrastructure,fuelling hopes for a productivity revival even as questions persist about the scope and durability of these gains.China is managing a delicate balance between external demand and domestic pressures,leveraging technological innovation to maintain momentum.Europe faces a more subdued outlook,weighed down by demographic trends and the costs associated withconflict and fragmented regulatory frameworks,while regions such as South Asia and East Asia and the Pacific remain relative bright spots,supported by reform and integration.Other regions,such as Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America,are grappling with the dual challenges of debt and theneed for structural transformation.The prevailing mood is one of vigilant anticipation,with the potential for rapid shifts in sentiment ever-present.The decisions made by governments,businesses and workers in the year ahead will be pivotal in determining whether this period of technological,geopolitical and economic change leads to short-term risk management only or lays the foundations for broad-based prosperity.As the world moves into 2026,the central challenge is to harness the relative resilience and continued creativity of the global economy to ensure that as many people as possible can access the rewards ofthe new economy.Chief Economists Outlook January4Economic risks outlookThe January 2026 Chief Economists Outlook opens on a cautiously brighter note than the past year.Although 53%of respondents still expect the global outlook to weaken in the year ahead,this is an improvement compared with the 72%who expected this outcome in September 2025.Yet even as the relative resilience of the global economy to shocks in the past year has brightened views of the year ahead,there also remain significant uncertainties.Trade and investment tensions remain a concern,while ongoing artificial intelligence(AI)adoption,though proceeding unevenly across geographies,industries and firms,raises hopes for meaningful productivity gains.Large downside risks remain in the form of inflated asset prices,increased levels ofpublic debt and high geopolitical uncertainty.Chief economists surveyed frequently listed the potential of a bursting asset bubble as well as rising debt pressures among the most worrying potential macroeconomic developments.Chapter 1 takes a closer look at both sets of risks.Chapter 2 explores trade and investment in the global economy as well as regional growth and policy expectations.The third chapter explores the expected productivity impact from the adoption and deployment of AI,as well as the technologys potential impacts on labour markets.1May 25613910050050100Share of respondents(%)Much weakerSomewhat weakerUnchangedSomewhat strongerMuch strongerSep 251117693Jan 25172856Sep 2495437May 24174141Jan 242320533May 233342942Figure 1:The global economic outlookLooking to the year ahead,what are your expectations for the future condition of the global economy?Jan 266472819Source:Chief Economists Surveys and Outlooks.(May 2023November 2025).Note:Chief Economists Surveys are conducted 78 weeks ahead of the launch of a new Chief Economists Outlook.In Mays edition,chief economists looked at the remainder of the year.In other editions,the outlook for the year ahead is given.The numbers in the graphs may not add up to 100%because figures have been rounded up/down.Chief Economists Outlook January5Figure 2:Asset developmentsLooking at the year ahead,what do you expect to happen to the value of the following categories of assets?Significant decreaseDecreaseNo changeIncreaseSignificant increaseAI-related stocks in China249653European stocks212159Gold3123433Other stocks in the US292943AI-related stocks in the US943940Other stocks in China244530US dollar542620Cryptocurrencies12502118Share of respondents(%)Source:Chief Economists Survey.(November 2025).Global markets in the past year have been driven by a concentrated US equity boom among AI leaders.Though still below the levels reached at the peak of the bubble,valuations of the top seven US tech firms(the“magnificent seven”,M7)have now reached the top 10%of their historical distributions.1 Equity gains have been largely concentrated in these tech firms:the M7 share in the total index market capitalization has grown to nearly 35%,from about 20%in November 2022.2 Yet other assets also saw remarkable developments.While bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies slumped,gold has surged 60%this year on the back of high uncertainty,supported by safe-haven demand,including from central banks its best annual performance since 1979.3 Meanwhile,the US dollar halted the depreciation path it had entered in April,posting gains against other major currencies.4Asset valuationsChief Economists Outlook January6In the year ahead,a narrow majority of 52%ofchief economists surveyed expect AI-related stocks in the US to decline,with 9%anticipating asignificant decline.However,40%of respondents expect further gains,highlighting the uncertainty of the current situation.Compared to AI stocks,other stocks in the US are viewed somewhat more favourably,although a majority of 58%also expect values to plateau or decline.Concerns about valuations in the US contrast with exuberance about AI-related stocks in China.Over two-thirds ofchief economists surveyed anticipate increases invalue in the year ahead.On other Chinese stocks,respondents are split,with 45%anticipating no change in either direction.Following the strong performance of European stocks in 2025,a majority of 59%of respondents expect further increases inthe year ahead.5 While a majority of 54%expect gold to have reached its peak,46%of respondents expect its value to increase even further in the year ahead.World Bank analysis attributes the 2025 surge mainly to safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty,alongside robust central bank purchases that have significantly increased their share of total demand compared with a decade ago.6 The precious metal traditionally fulfils a portfolio diversification role and may continue to fulfil this role again in the year ahead.7 When it comes to cryptocurrencies,62%anticipate further decreases in value in the year ahead.After amarket crash on 10 October exposed weaknesses in the wider cryptocurrency infrastructure,bitcoin lost a quarter of its value injust two months.8 Furthermore,a majority of 54%expect the US dollar to resume its downward trajectory.A depreciating dollar affects both borrowers and foreign investors balance sheets and could easefinancialconditionsfor emerging markets bylowering debt servicing burdens.9Valuations and investor behaviour raise the spectre of asset bubbles.According to Bank for International Settlements(BIS)research,US equitiesand gold exhibit patterns historically associated with bubble episodes,surging in lockstep for the first time in the last 50 years.10 TheEuropean Central Banks(ECB)latest Financial Stability Review also highlights“stretched”valuations of major US tech stocks,driven by fear of missing out,and warns that negative surprises,including political shocks around the Federal Reserve,could trigger sharp corrections.11 TheInternational Monetary Funds(IMF)October Global Financial Stability Report adds that rallies centred on the magnificent seven significantly raise the risk that disappointment in a few firms could reverberate across global equity and bondmarkets.12At the same time,there are credible arguments against viewing the AI boom as a bubble,which temper the case for a downward correction.Unlike the era,todays leading AI firms are already highly profitable,with strong earnings growth underpinning rising share prices and significant real investment in data centres and infrastructure.13 Price-to-earnings multiples for top AI names sit at levels that assume multiple years of uninterrupted growth,but remain below some peaks reached during the bubble.14 The OECD(Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)and IMF both note that AI-related capital spending has materially supported US growth in 2025,even after stripping out front-loaded activity linked to tariffs.15Figure 3:Breadth of impactIn the case of a significant decrease,what is your expectation of the breadth of the impact on the global economy?Gold1189AI-related stocks in China1189Other stocks in China1783European stocks1783Cryptocurrencies2971Other stocks in the US6337US dollar6634AI-related stocks in the US7426Share of respondents(%)WidespreadContainedSource:Chief Economists Survey.(November 2025).Chief Economists Outlook January7Chief economists were asked to assess the breadth of impact of a significant decrease in the value of certain assets on the global economy.The centrality of the US in the global economy stands out.16 Almost three-quarters of respondents(74%)expect a significant decrease in the value of US AI assets to have widespread impacts on the global economy,while a quarter expect it to be more contained.To a lesser extent(63%),this is also the case for other stocks in the US.Some estimates suggest that a stock market crash in the US could generate potential losses up to$35 trillion.17 Two-thirds of chief economists surveyed also foresee widespread impacts should the US dollar decrease significantly in value.When it comes to gold,cryptocurrencies or stocks in China or Europe,the majority anticipate the impact of a significant decrease to be contained.Chief economists were also asked to assess the timeframe of the expected impact.A significant decrease in the value of the US dollar is expected by a majority of respondents(56%)to have a long-lasting impact.All other assets,including AI-related stocks in the US,are anticipated by the majority of respondents to have short-lived impacts on the global economy.Figure 4:Timeframe of impactIn the case of a significant decrease,what is your expectation of the timeframe of the impact on the global economy?Long lastingUS dollar4456AI-related stocks in the US5941Other stocks in the US6832Cryptocurrencies