2026年全球汽车展望：应对分化（英）.pdf

2026 will be a year in which adaptability to BEVs(electric vehicles)and NOA(Navigation on Autopilot)will be tested,but it is highly likely that separate standards will become established for both.We expect to see more active moves by automakers to avoid supply chains overly concentrated in certain regions and to prioritize stable procurement,leading to the fragmentation of BEV and NOA specifications by region.Furthermore,regional disparities in environmental policies will also likely amplify,with both“carrots”(subsidies)and“sticks”(regulations)offered.Europe has already reduced BEV purchase subsidies,and the US has abolished them at the national level.China auto sales likely to decline yoy in 2026,leading to an accelerated export drive.Chinese BEVs are structurally more than 30%lower in cost(primarily due to batteries and eAxles),and we expect that Chinese-made BEVs will rapidly penetrate regions with low tariff levels.China effectively controls the BEV supply chain(holding 72-98%of the global market share for batteries and rare earths),which is the source of its cost competitiveness.Meanwhile,geopolitical risks are rising in the semiconductor and rare earth sectors,and there are growing moves,particularly in the US,to develop domestic BEV supply chains,even if it means higher costs.As a result,only high-cost BEVs will likely be available in some developed economies.We introduce a new global auto tariff barometer to track the competitive advantages of Chinese BEVs.Another focus for 2026 is whether consumers prioritize BEVs or NOA.While it is preferable for full-spec NOA(Level 2+or higher)to be operated with BEVs,BEV sales are slowing in Europe and the US,and consumers,while showing interest in Level 2+autonomous driving,are turning cautious on purchasing BEVs.In the first half of the 2020s,the P/E of traditional OEMs declined by 50%when the sales share of BEVs rapidly increased to 10%.Towards 2030,if consumer demand for NOA were to increase,we would see downside risks to the valuations of automakers slow to respond to this new technology.We are most bullish on India,as its growing presence is driven by more companies pursuing geographical diversification strategies.We anticipate intensifying competition in the ASEAN/Australia region and maintain a bearish stance on Japan.Our focus stocks by region are:India:Maruti Suzuki,US:GM,China:BYD,South Korea:Kia,Europe:BMW,Japan:Toyota Motor.Kota Yuzawa Co.,Ltd.Tina Hou ities Company Limited Mark Delaney,CFA C Christian Frenes nal Chandramouli Muthiah Do Hyoung Kim.C.,Seoul Branch Will Bryant+1(212)934-4705|Goldman Sachs&CKen Kawamoto.,Ltd.Aman Gupta C Jenny Du ies Company Limited Sian Keegan ational Monika Mengt+44(20)7051-7601|Goldman Sachs InterShivam Kotecha 8 January 2026|8:08AM JST Equity ResearchGLOBAL AUTOMOBILES 2026 Outlook:Navigating Divergencecf0439ae21ba4b11866e2e238df6bf878 January 2026|8:08AM JST1Global Autos Teams Investment View 3 Chinas Automotive Export Drive and ASEAN Competition 4 BEV and NOA Autonomous Driving Out of Sync in 2026 12 Alliances and Consolidations for True Scale 17 Stock performance:BEV and NOA determine traditional automakers valuations 23 Disclosure Appendix 31 Goldman SachsGlobal AutomobilesTable of Contents cf0439ae21ba4b11866e2e238df6bf872Global Autos Teams Investment View Exhibit 1:Bullish on India,bearish on Japan View by region Source:Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Exhibit 2:Divergence among stocks could become apparent Global valuation comparison Jan 05Target ReturnMarketTradingPricePricePotentialCap.VolumeFY24FY25EFY26EFY24FY25EFY26E(%)($mn)($mn)(x)(x)(x)(x)(x)(x)Assembers NissanNeutral393350-11%9,27370-2.1-3.423.80.280.300.30ToyotaBuy3,3993,80012%341,3264379.512.49.90.960.870.73MitsubishiSell372350-6%3,4571913.035.113.70.570.560.55MazdaNeutral1,2461,3004%5,003416.928.38.80.440.440.43HondaBuy1,5581,85019%52,3001448.715.58.10.720.650.61SuzukiBuy2,3923,05028%29,8709011.111.710.22.051.521.38SubaruBuy3,4454,30025%16,056657.512.38.90.940.900.84Yamaha MotorNeutral1,1761,000-15%7,6124910.719.29.80.990.960.90Japan Average7%8.216.411.70.870.770.72BMWBuy93.9112.019%61,6941028.18.78.00.620.600.56Mercedes-Benz Buy60.473.021%68,1711385.910.87.40.650.610.57StellantisNeutral9.69.0-6%32,5942704.213.76.20.350.370.36Stellantis(NYSE)Neutral11.310.0-12%38,3681764.916.27.30.410.440.42PorscheNeutral46.946.0-2%25,019011.9114.719.01.851.861.79RenaultNeutral35.636.01%12,332424.073.14.30.310.450.43VolkswagenNeutral120.8106.0-12%24,903944.89.25.20.260.260.24FerrariBuy321.2391.022%68,799138.036.130.516.3614.3412.05Aston MartinNeutral64.761.0-6%884379-1.9-2.0-5.971.48131.48169.50Europe Average6%11.038.011.52.912.642.29Ford$Neutral13.514.004%52,7171,0947.311.68.21.212.012.13General Motors$Buy83.293.0012%77,5676777.88.07.21.491.211.11Tesla$Neutral451.7420.00-7%1,502,17217,010221.4411.2258.221.6519.6018.21Rivian$Neutral19.618.00-8%23,939760-4.6-6.3-6.33.025.3911.70US Average3%58.0106.166.86.847.058.29HyundaiWNeutral304,500330,0008%43,0942056.37.37.30.670.620.57KiaWBuy122,600150,00022%33,083795.06.36.00.870.790.72Korea Average15%5.66.86.60.770.700.65SAICRMBSell15.268.40-45%25,086117106.016.114.50.610.590.58BYDHKDBuy95.80141.0047%45,32728519.222.315.64.243.152.71BYD(A)RMBBuy98.11144.0047%76,23836521.324.817.84.623.593.10GuangzhouHKDNeutral4.082.20-46%1,4741847.3-17.610.90.350.330.33Guangzhou(A)RMBSell8.194.00-51%8,64847102.8-38.224.40.740.750.73XpengHKDBuy76.6596.0025%15,38974-26.1-188.252.84.654.904.57Xpeng$Buy20.1525.0024%15,747120-3.4-24.76.90.610.640.60China Average0%38.1-29.420.42.261.991.80BajajINRBuy9,497.510,200.07%29,3983535.931.728.110.808.257.79Hero MotoINRSell5,985.54,770.0-20%13,2644530.226.023.36.666.055.61Mahindra&MahindraINRBuy3,790.34,300.013%50,3797942.938.429.08.717.406.20Maruti SuzukiINRBuy*17,155.020,200.018%59,7395939.336.533.36.275.735.09Tata MotorsINRNeutral373.6365.0-2%15,2351275.06.7133.61.441.141.22India Average3%30.727.849.56.785.715.18CurrencyCompanyRatingP/EP/B*on Regional Conviction List Source:Company data,Bloomberg,Goldman Sachs Global Investment ResearchGoldman SachsGlobal Automobilescf0439ae21ba4b11866e2e238df6bf873Chinas Automotive Export Drive and ASEAN Competition Impact of China slowdown Our China auto team forecasts that Chinas auto retail sales will decline by 1.8%yoy in 2026 and by 5.2%yoy in 2027(after a 4.5%increase in 2025),which they expect to accelerate the export drive(6.7 mn units in 2025 7.4 mn units in 2026,+10%).Chinese BEVs are structurally more than 30%lower in cost(primarily due to batteries/eAxles),and rapid penetration of Chinese-made BEVs is anticipated in regions with low tariff levels.China effectively controls the BEV supply chain(holding 72-98%global share in batteries and rare earths),which is the source of its cost competitiveness.Even by 2025,Chinese BEVs have already increased their global presence.Regarding sales momentum and share trends in the top 30 countries by BEV sales volume,BEV sales are increasing in most regions,with the exception of some areas like Canada and Sweden,and the share of Chinese BEV manufacturers is also rising in the majority of countries/regions.Exhibit 3:Vehicle exports from China surge Japan and China auto exports Exhibit 4:China exports account for over 10%share of global NEV demand Ratio of exported vehicles to total global demand -1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026E2028E2030E2032E2034E Japan export China export China NEV export(k units)0%5%10%15%20%25%198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026E2028E2030E2032E2034E Japan export China export China NEV export relative to global NEV Source:Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association,CAAM,Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source:Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association,CAAM,Goldman Sachs Global Investment ResearchGoldman SachsGlobal Automobilescf0439ae21ba4b11866e2e238df6bf874 Timing to be more aware of geopolitical risks On the other hand,geopolitical risks are rising in the semiconductor and rare earth sectors,leading to movements,particularly in the US,to foster domestic BEV supply chains,even if at a higher cost.As a result,only high-cost BEVs will likely be offered in developed countries.The adoption rate of BEVs is highly likely to slow down in the short term.Countries will likely want to avoid supply chains that are overly dependent on specific nations,even if it takes time.Exhibit 5:BEV momentum varies by region BEV sales by region BEV Total sales(units)BEV sales(units)BEV penetration(%)China OEMs BEV penetration(%Non-China OEMs BEV penetration(BEV mix by China OEMs(%)YoYMoMYoYMoMYoYMoMYoYMoMYoYMoMYoYMoMChina15%13%30%5%5%1%5%1%0%-1%5%2%United States6%-14%-35%-54%-3%-7%0%0%-2%-7%0%0%Germany14%13%44%14%5%1%1%0%4%1%2%-1%United Kingdom11%270%22%-49%5%2%2%0%2%2%6%-1%France2%61%68%13%8%2%0%0%8%2%-1%0%South Korea21%14%54%-33%7%-3%1%0%6%-3%4%1%India3%11%69%14%1%0%0%0%1%0%1%0%Netherlands-17%21%26%11%14%1%4%-1%9%2%5%-3%Norway14%2%0%-23%0%-4%-1%5%2%-9%-2%7%Vietnam-7%23%-47%35%4%4%-1%31%5%-6%Turkey26%9%76%-2%3%-1%0%0%3%-1%0%0%Belgium1%19%2%-1%2%-2%2%1%0%-3%8%5%Thailand11%4%109%3%9%2%9%2%0%0%2%2%Denmark12%33%24%-16%6%-5%-1%2%7%-7%-4%5%Sweden0%24%0%-8%1%-2%-1%0%1%-2%-2%1%Spain16%40%95%-10%3%-2%1%0%2%-2%6%4%Canada1%-2%-29%36%-2%2%0%0%-2%2%-2%-4%Australia7%3%26%-41%1%-4%1%-1%0%-3%6%15%Italy6%91%26%-14%1%-1%0%0%1%-1%0%0%Indonesia-15%0%193%240%13%12%12%12%0%0%21%21%Austria33%21%36%-4%3%0%1%1%2%-1%2%4%Brazil3%8%21%-3%0%0%0%0%0%0%-1%-2%Portugal15%31%27%-5%5%0%3%2%2%-2%7%7%Japan-2%42%12%-23%0%0%0%0%0%0%7%3%Switzerland1%23%18%-19%3%-3%2%-1%1%-2%9%-4%Israel28%3%-81%-93%-15%-22%-9%-15%-6%-6%33%22%Poland19%19%303%1%4%0%2%0%2%-1%29%5%Taiwan-8%14%-58%-71%-4%-9%0%0%-4%-9%0%0%Malaysia1%-21%186%32%3%0%0%0%3%1%-11%-11%Ireland9%-24%13%-60%1%-5%1%6%0%-11%4%45%Source:MarkLines,Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Exhibit 6:The cost competitiveness of Chinese BEVs is high BEV powertrain cost comparison -1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000China BEVNon China BEV Battery(70kWh)Motor/e-transmission Inverter BMSUSD 3300 Source:MarkLines,Company data,Goldman Sachs Global Investment ResearchGoldman SachsGlobal Automobilescf0439ae21ba4b11866e2e238df6bf875 Japanese auto industry promotes local production This structure bears some resemblance to the Japanese automotive industry in 1980-1990.At that time,as Japanese exports rapidly expanded,there was a strong desire,especially in the US,to protect domestic automotive industry jobs.Following the Plaza Accord in 1985,the appreciation of the yen led to a plateau in exports from Japan,prompting Japanese automakers to significantly shift towards overseas local production.Introducing our global auto tariff barometer This time,Chinas BEV situation involves not only employment issues but also significant economic security elements related to global supply chains.If tariffs and localized production regulations materialize,Chinese manufacturers will likely accelerate their expansion into overseas production bases.Notably,changes in trade policy,such as increased localized production requirements by country,have already occurred in Russia Exhibit 7:The supply chain is concentrated in China Suppliers of BEV-related components China market shareTrade conditionBattery cell80%Cathode85%(Cathode LFP)98%Proposed technology export contril in Jan 2025Anode90%Graphite refine98%Export licensing in Dec 2023Lithium refine72%Proposed technology export control in Jan 2025Graphite refine90%Rare earths92%Export ban of rare earth extraction and separation technologies in Dec 20230%20%40%60%80%100%120%Battery cellCathode(Cathode LFP)AnodeGraphite refineLithium refineGraphite refineRare earths Source:IEA,Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Exhibit 8:Overseas production ratio has risen sharply Japanese automakers production and exports Exhibit 9:Opening plants in North America and Asia Japanese automakers production volume by region 02,000,0004,000,0006,000,0008,000,00010,000,00012,000,00014,000,00016,000,00018,000,00020,000,000Domestic SalesExportOverseas Production(units)05,000,00010,000,00015,000,00020,000,00025,000,000Overseas production by regionAsiaMiddle EastEuropeN.AmericaL.AmericaAfricaOceania(units)Source:Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association,Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source:Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association,Goldman Sachs Global Investment ResearchGoldman SachsGlobal Automobilescf0439ae21ba4b11866e2e238df6bf876and Mexico over the past 12-18 months.Our tariff barometer,which indexes the impact of tariffs in regions excluding China and the US by sales volume weighting,shows that tariff rates were on an upward trend from 2024 to 2025.Although there are regional disparities,from a global perspective,the 30%cost advantage of Chinese BEVs is largely neutralized by tariff policies.In scenarios where tariffs significantly exceed 30%,the export competitiveness of Chinese BEV manufacturers diminish in relative terms.Conversely,should tariffs fall below 30%,the export drive of Chinese-made BEVs will likely accelerate.Exhibit 10:The global average tariff rate on China BEVs is c.30%Global auto tariffs on China BEVs(excluding China and the US)17%28%28%29%23%24%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%Global weighted average tariffs rateGlobal weighted average tariffs rate incl.local productionChina BEV cost advantage(30%)Changes in Brazil,Canadaand EUChange in India localizationrule Calculated based on a weighted average of calendar year sales volume and automobile tariff rates by region,excluding China and the US.Source:Reuters,Nikkei,Goldman Sachs Global Investment ResearchGoldman SachsGlobal Automobilescf0439ae21ba4b11866e2e238df6bf877 If tariffs and localization regulations materialize,the expansion of Chinese manufacturers overseas production bases will accelerate.Key devices like batteries are expected to be imported from China for the time being(India also has a 5%tariff on battery imports),and overseas BEV production costs are expected to remain competitive.In case of USA however,tariffs and incentives are affecting the import calculation for US OEMs.Many of the US OEMs are looking to produce in the US or import from other countries besides China.Ford is still going to make LFP batteries in the US,and Tesla is now making LFP in the US too.In this environment,finished vehicle manufacturers with a strong presence in ASEAN,Australia,and Europe,in our view,will be increasingly caught up in intensifying competition.Furthermore,some traditional automakers have begun to expand sales of Exhibit 11:Tariff policy is fluid Auto tariffs in major countries RegionTariffTrend in TariffNoteUS137.5%137.5%for EVs/62.5%for non EVsCanada106%Mexico50%Updated on Dec.11,2025 EU18-45%Brazil18%35%by 2026Russia15%Raised recycling fee on imported vehiclesIndonesia29%0%if local productionIndia70-100%15%if local productionThailand0%With