世界油气行业就业的未来.pdf

TMFWOGI/2022 The future of work in the oil and gas industry Opportunities and challenges for a just transition to a future of work that contributes to sustainable development Technical meeting on the future of work in the oil and gas industry(Geneva,28 November2 December 2022)Sectoral Policies Department Geneva,2022 Copyright International Labour Organization 2022 First edition 2022 Publications of the International Labour Organization(ILO)enjoy copyright under Protocol 2 of the Universal Copyright Convention.Nevertheless,short excerpts from them may be reproduced without authorization,on condition that the source is indicated.For rights of reproduction or translation,application should be made to ILO Publishing(Rights and Licensing),International Labour Office,CH-1211 Geneva 22,Switzerland,or by email:rightsilo.org.The ILO welcomes such applications.Libraries,institutions and other users registered with a reproduction rights organization may make copies in accordance with the licences issued to them for this purpose.Visit www.ifrro.org to find the reproduction rights organization in your country.The future of work in the oil and gas industry:Opportunities and challenges for a just transition to a future of work that contributes to sustainable development(Geneva,28 November2 December 2022),International Labour Office,Sectoral Policies Department,Geneva,ILO,2022.ISBN 978-92-2-037557-0(print)ISBN 978-92-2-037558-7(Web pdf)Also available in French:Lavenir du travail dans lindustrie ptrolire et gazire:Perspectives et dfis associs une transition juste vers un avenir du travail qui contribue au dveloppement durable(Genve,28 novembre2 dcembre 2022),ISBN 978-92-2-037559-4(print),ISBN 978-92-2-037560-0(web PDF);and in Spanish:El futuro del trabajo en el sector del petrleo y el gas:Oportunidades y desafos para una transicin justa a un futuro del trabajo que contribuya al desarrollo sostenible(Ginebra,28 de noviembre2 de diciembre de 2022),ISBN 978-92-2-037561-7(print),ISBN 978-92-2-037562-4(web PDF).The designations employed in ILO publications,which are in conformity with United Nations practice,and the presentation of material therein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the ILO concerning the legal status of any country,area or territory or of its authorities,or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers.The responsibility for opinions expressed in signed articles,studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors,and publication does not constitute an endorsement by the ILO of the opinions expressed in them.Reference to names of firms and commercial products and processes does not imply their endorsement by the ILO,and any failure to mention a particular firm,commercial product or process is not a sign of disapproval.Information on ILO publications and digital products can be found at:www.ilo.org/publns.Formatted by RELMEETINGS:TMFWOGI-2022-SECTO-220906-001-EN.docx Printed in Switzerland.TMFWOGI/2022 3 Contents Page Background.5 Chapter 1.The oil and gas industry.6 1.1.Definition and structure.7 1.2.Global oil and gas reserves.10 1.3.Global oil and gas production.12 1.4.Oil and gas consumption.13 1.5.Contribution to GDP and world trade.15 1.6.Global employment.18 Chapter 2.Megatrends and drivers of change.19 2.1.Climate change.19 2.1.1.The contribution of the industry to climate change.20 2.1.2.The energy transition.21 2.1.3.The production gap persists.24 2.1.4.Rebalancing energy investments for a just transition.25 2.2.Technological advances.27 2.2.1.Robotics and automation.27 2.2.2.Digitalization.28 2.2.3.Technologies to reduce industry emissions.29 2.2.4.The search for new sources of products and energy.31 2.3.Demographics.32 2.4.Globalization.33 Chapter 3.Challenges and opportunities for decent and sustainable work.35 3.1.Employment.35 3.1.1.Macroeconomic and growth policies.35 3.1.2.Industrial and sectoral policies.36 3.1.3.Job creation,transformation and losses.38 3.1.4.Skills needs,mismatches now and in the future.41 3.1.5.Other active labour market policies.44 3.2.Enterprises.45 3.2.1.Multinational enterprises.45 3.2.2.Small and medium-sized enterprises.49 TMFWOGI/2022 4 Page 3.3.Conditions of work.51 3.3.1.Wages.51 3.3.2.Organization and hours of work.54 3.4.Social protection.54 3.5.Fundamental Principles and Rights at Work and other international labour standards.56 3.5.1.Freedom of association and the right to collective bargaining.56 3.5.2.The elimination of forced or compulsory labour and the abolition of child labour.58 3.5.3.The elimination of discrimination in respect of employment and occupation.58 3.5.4.Occupational Safety and Health.60 3.5.5.Other international labour standards.63 3.6.Social dialogue and labour market institutions.65 3.6.1.Employer and business membership organizations.65 3.6.2.Workers organizations.66 3.6.3.Labour administration and inspection.67 TMFWOGI/2022 5 Background At its 341st Session(March 2021),the Governing Body of the ILO decided to convene a technical meeting on the future of work in the oil and gas industry.1 At its 343rd Session(November 2021),the Governing Body in turn decided that the technical meeting should take place in Geneva from 28 November to 2 December 2022.2 In the context of the ILO Centenary Declaration for the Future of Work(2019),3 the meeting will discuss opportunities and challenges for a just transition to a future of work that contributes to sustainable development in its economic,social and environmental dimensions.This report has been prepared by the International Labour Office as a basis for discussions at the meeting.Chapter 1 contains a brief overview of the oil and gas industry today in terms of its structure;reserves and production;consumption;international trade and contribution to gross domestic product(GDP);and employment.Chapter 2 sets out the megatrends and drivers of change that will transform the industry in the future,with a focus on climate change,technological advances,demographics and globalization.Chapter 3 describes the decent work opportunities and challenges that the industry faces within the framework of the four strategic objectives that are at the heart of the Decent Work Agenda,4 and with special attention to the nine key policy areas of the ILO Guidelines for a just transition towards environmentally sustainable economies and societies for all.5 1 GB.341/POL/3(Rev.1).2 GB.343/POL/2(Rev.2).3 ILO,ILO Centenary Declaration for the Future of Work,International Labour Conference,108th Session,2019.4 ILO,ILO Declaration on Social Justice for a Fair Globalization(2008)as amended in 2022.5 ILO,Guidelines for a Just Transition Towards Environmentally Sustainable Economies and Societies for All,2015.TMFWOGI/2022 6 Chapter 1.The oil and gas industry 1.While the earliest known oil wells were drilled in China in the year 347,the first modern oil wells were created in the 1850s.Since then,the oil and gas industry has provided the energy to catapult the industrial revolution,it has transformed mobility,transport,electricity provision,heating,cooling,and cooking.In addition to powering our economies,oil and gas is the base ingredient in thousands of manufactured products that businesses and consumers use every day.2.The oil and gas industry makes a significant contribution to the global economy and to its growth and development worldwide.The oil industry alone accounts for almost 3 per cent of global domestic product.The trade in crude oil reached US$640 billion in 2020,making it one of the worlds most traded commodities.6 3.The industry is highly capital-intensive.Investments in oil and gas supply reached more than US$511 billion in 2020.7 According to the International Energy Agencys(IEA)recent report,World Energy Employment,oil and gas supply employed close to 11.9 million people in 2019.8 4.Being the worlds most valuable commodities,oil and gas have greatly contributed to the wealth and power of governments and corporations that are endowed with these natural resources and that control their production and distribution.For this reason,the desire and ability to control oil and gas have played a significant role in geopolitics,wars and conflicts across the globe,and continue to do so today.5.In recent decades,the industry has come under additional scrutiny because of concerns about the changing climate.According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),in 2019 approximately 34 per cent of total net anthropogenic greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions came from the energy supply sector.9 During a speech in March 2022,the Secretary-General of the United Nations(UN)warned that our“addiction to fossil fuels is mutually assured destruction”.10 6.As highlighted by the International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association(IPIECA),the oil and gas industry will need to align its business strategies with the national strategies called for in the Paris Agreement to significantly reduce GHG emissions and to support the global energy transition.According to the IEA,no oil and gas company will be unaffected by the transition to clean energy,and every segment of the industry will need to consider the nature of their operations and business models.11 7.Combined with concerns about working conditions and violations of fundamental principles and rights at work in oil and gas production in some countries,the industry is faced with increasing pressure to address the significant opportunities and challenges for a just transition to a future of work that contributes to sustainable development in its economic,social and environmental dimensions.6 The Observatory of Economic Complexity(OEC),“Crude Petroleum”.7 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),Climate Change 2022:Mitigation of Climate Change.Summary for Policymakers,2022.8 IEA,World Energy Employment,2022.9 Anil Pandey,James Thomas and Aditya Harneja,“How the Oil and Gas Industry can Turn Climate-change Ambition into Action”,Strategy&,2021.10 UN,“Secretary-Generals Remarks to Economist Sustainability Summit”,21 March 2022.11 IEA,The Oil and Gas Industry in Energy Transitions:Insights from IEA Analysis,2020.TMFWOGI/2022 7 1.1.Definition and structure 8.For the purposes of this report,the oil and gas industry is defined in accordance with the International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities(ISIC),Revision 4.12 9.The supply chains of the oil and gas industry span the globe and can be separated into three segments(figure 1):The upstream segment of the oil and gas industry encompasses activities linked to exploration,including the search for hydrocarbons,identification of high-potential areas for oil and gas extraction,test drilling,the construction of wells,and initial extraction.Drilling for oil and gas are typically contracted to specialized drilling firms.Drilling facilities can either be onshore,frequently in the form of oil wells that are grouped together in a field,or offshore from single platforms that hold all the drilling equipment,storage areas and housing for crews.Another method used to extract oil and gas is hydraulic fracturing,which is used to extract hydrocarbons from inaccessible parts of existing wells or coalbed wells,tight sand formations and shale formations.13 The midstream segment of the industry refers to the transportation and storage of oil and gas.This includes the operation of pipelines and other modes of transportation to move oil and gas long distances,such as tank trucks,rail tank cars,barges and oil and liquefied natural gas(LNG)tankers.Another important midstream activity is the storage of oil and natural gas,largely for the purposes of softening supply and demand shocks.Companies in the downstream segment refine crude oil and natural gas into thousands of finished products,including petrol,diesel,kerosene,jet fuels,heating oils and asphalt for building roads.Long-chain hydrocarbons are also found in products such as fertilizers,rubber,plastics,chemicals,pharmaceuticals,paints and fabrics.The downstream segment also covers the marketing and distribution of refined petroleum products to business,industry,government,and public consumers.Figure 1.The oil and gas supply chain Source:Adapted from Library of Congress,“Oil and Gas Industry:A Research Guide”.12 UN,International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities(ISIC),Rev.4,2008.13 Library of Congress,“Oil and Gas Industry:A Research Guide”.eolo ical sur eys and ri hts nshore o shore drillin loration e elo ment of infrastructure il eld de elo ment rillin e aration om ression ehydrationProduction Pi elines a o e round,elow round,on the sea ed ea oadTrans ortation Primary se aration y distillation econdary con ersion rac in e nin stream idstream ownstream TMFWOGI/2022 8 10.The oil and gas industry is dominated by a limited number of large multinational enterprises(MNEs),both private,public and state-owned.In 2019,petroleum and energy companies accounted for seven of the top ten Fortune Global companies,and in 2022 the trailing 12 month revenues(TTM)of the ten biggest oil companies ranged from US$111.5 billion to US$1.3 trillion.14 These MNEs coexist with prospectors,drillers,exploration juniors and small producers,and with numerous small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs)in their supply chains,both globally and in local communities.11.Oil and gas companies can be generally divided in two categories,international oil companies(IOCs)and national oil companies(NOCs):15 IOCs:The se en“ajors”that is,BP,Chevron,ExxonMobil,Shell,Total,ConocoPhillips and Eni are examples of integrated IOCs that are involved in each segment of the oil and gas supply chain and have a market capitalization of US$10 billion or more.IOCs also include the smaller rou of“Inde endents”,who focus on frontier areas or assets of less interest to the ajors,and who operate across the supply chain or in a specific segment of it.Examples include Repsol,Marathon,Apache,Hess or Mitsubishi Corp.In addition to the fully or partially integrated IOCs,the oil and gas industry also includes companies that either specialize in a segment of the supply chain,such as pure downstream companies(for example,Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66),service companies(for example,Schlumberger and Baker Hughes)and trading companies(for example,Glencore and Vitol).NOCs:Since Mexico nationalized its oil production in 1938,countries have been creating private state-owned companies or purchasing significant shares in publicly traded oil companies.The rise of oil nationalization was not only a response to historical exploitation by IOCs,but also a political strategy to control access to national oil and gas reserves.16 Examples of NOCs include Saudi Aramco,National Iranian Oil Company,Basra Oil Company,Qatar Petroleum,Rosneft,Uzbekneftegaz,SOCAR,KazMunayGaz,Petrobras,PEMEX,Petrleos de Venezuela,SA(PDVSA),Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation(NNPC),Sonatrach,and Sonangol.