MIT斯隆做的电信业价值链研究报告.ppt

,*,Mapping the Telecom Value Chain:,A Roadmap for Communications Networks,Professor Charles Fine,Massachusetts Institute of Technology,Sloan School of Management,Cambridge,Massachusetts 02142,May 2001,charley,mit,.,edu,www.,clockspeed,.com,Tel:[phone],Fax:[phone],Excerpts from,1.Fruit Flies&Temporary Advantage,2.Value Chain Design&3-DCE,3.,eBusiness,Phenomena:,Business Model Innovation,Telecom Value Chains:,A fruit fly example,Mapping the Telecom Value Chain:,A Roadmap for Communications Networks,Evolution in,the industrial world:,INFOTAINMENT,is faster than,MICROCHIPS,is faster than,AUTOS,evolve,faster than,AIRCRAFT,evolve,faster than,MINERAL EXTRACTION,THE KEY TOOL:,Cross-INDUSTRY,Benchmarking,of Dynamic Forces,Value Chain Design in a,Fast-,Clockspeed,World:Study the,Industry,Fruitflies,Evolution in,the natural world:,FRUITFLIES,evolve faster than,MAMMALS,evolve faster than,REPTILES,THE KEY TOOL:,Cross-SPECIES Benchmarking,of Dynamic Forces,Ciscos End-to-End Integration for its Fulfillment Value Chain,Cisco,Customers,Contract,Manufacturers,Component,Suppliers&,Distributors,New product development on-line,with supply base,Technology Supply Chain Design:,Innovation through Acquisition,Single enterprise information system,Dynamic replenishment,direct fulfillment,merge in transit,Customer orders through Cisco Connection online,Finished Product flows direct to customer via logistics supplier,Order info,flows direct to,Cisco and suppliers,Ciscos Strategy for,Technology Value Chain Design,Integrate technology around the router to be a communications network provider.,2.Leverage acquired technology with,-sales muscle and reach,-end-to-end IT,-outsourced manufacturing,-market growth,3.Leverage venture capital to supply R&D,Volatility Amplification in the Supply Chain:,“The Bullwhip Effect”,Customer,Retailer,Distributor,Factory,Tier 1 Supplier,Information lags,Delivery lags,Over-and,underordering,Misperceptions of feedback,Lumpiness in ordering,Chain accumulations,SOLUTIONS:,Countercyclical,Markets,Countercyclical,Technologies,Collaborative channel mgmt.,(Cincinnati Milacron&Boeing),Equipment,-80,-60,-40,-20,0,20,40,60,80,100,1961,1963,1965,1967,1969,1971,1973,1975,1977,1979,1981,1983,1985,1987,1989,1991,%Change,Year to Year,%Chg.GDP,%Chg.Vehicle Production Index,%Chg.Net New Orders Machine Tool Industry,Supply Chain Volatility Amplification:,Machine Tools at the tip of the Bullwhip,Upstream Volatility in the Supply Chain:The Machine Tool Industry as a Case Study,E.Anderson,C.Fine&G.Parker,Production and Operations Management,Vol,.9,No.3,Fall 2000,pp.239-261,.,“We are experiencing a 100-year flood.”J.Chambers,4/16/01,INDUSTRY CLOCKSPEED IS A COMPOSITE:,OF PRODUCT,PROCESS,AND ORGANIZATIONAL,CLOCKSPEEDS,THE,Automobile,MANUFACTURING,COMPANY,organization,Automobile,INDUSTRY CLOCKSPEED,THE,Automobile,product technology,THE,Automobile,PRODUCTION,PROCESS,process technology,Automobile,CLOCKSPEED IS A MIX OF ENGINE,BODY&ELECTRONICS,Automobile,ENGINE,slow,clockspeed,BODY,medium,clockspeed,ELECTRONICS,fast,clockspeed,ISSUE:,MOST AUTO FIRMS OPERATE AT,ENGINE OR BODY CLOCKSPEEDS,;IN THE FUTURE THEY WILL NEED TO RUN AT,ELECTRONICS CLOCKSPEED.,Dynamics between,New Projects,and,Core Capability Development:,PROJECTS MUST MAKE MONEY,AND BUILD CAPABILITIES,CORE,CAPABILITIES,NEW PROJECTS,(New products,new processes,new suppliers),Leonard-Barton,Wellsprings of Knowledge,Clockspeed,drives,Business Strategy Cadence,The Strategic Leverage of Value Chain Design:,Who let Intel Inside?,1980:IBM designs a product,a process,&a value chain,Intel,Microsoft,IBM,Customers,The Outcome:,A,phenomenonally,successful product design,A disastrous value chain design(for IBM),Intel Inside,LESSONS FROM A FRUIT FLY:,THE PERSONAL COMPUTER,1.BEWARE OF,INTEL INSIDE,(Regardless of your industry),2.MAKE/BUY IS,NOT,ABOUT WHETHER IT IS,TWO CENTS CHEAPER TO OUTSOURCE,3.VALUE CHAIN DESIGN CAN DETERMINE,THE FATE OF,COMPANIES,AND,INDUSTRIES,AND OF,PROFIT,AND,POWER,4.THE LOCUS OF VALUE CHAIN CONTROL,CAN SHIFT IN,UNPREDICTABLE,WAYS,Automotive Power Dynamics,of Technology Value/Content,Autos,Steel,-styling,-structural integrity,Elec,.,Autos,Electronics,-$/vehicle,-customer interface,Steel,1965,2005,.as the most integral subsystem in the automobile,driving shifts in the relative strategic and financial,importance of various members in the supply chain?,Will electronics replace sheet steel.,Strategic Design of,Automotive Electronics,Value Chains,Toyota,Chrysler,Mercedes,Supplier,Visteon,Ford,Auto,Opns,Delphi,GM,NAO,Supplier,Customers,Denso Inside,?,JCI Inside,?,Delphi Inside,?,Vertical Industry Structure with,Integral,Product Architecture,IBM,DEC,BUNCH,Microprocessors,Operating Systems,Peripherals,Applications Software,Network Services,Assembled Hardware,All Products,All Products,All Products,(A.Grove,Intel;and Farrell,Hunter&,Saloner,Stanford),Computer Industry Structure,1975-85,Horizontal Industry Structure with,Modular,Product Architecture,Computer Industry Structure,1985-95,Microprocessors,Operating Systems,Peripherals,Applications Software,Network Services,Assembled Hardware,Intel,Mac,TI,etc,Microsoft,Mac,Unix,HP,Seagate,etc,Intel,Mac,TI,etc,Intel,Moto,AMD,etc,Epson,etc,Microsoft,Novell,etc,Lotus,AOL/Netscape,EDS,etc,Microsoft,etc,HP,Dell,etc,IBM,Compaq,etc,(A.Grove,Intel;and Farrell,Hunter&,Saloner,Stanford),THE DYNAMICS OF PRODUCT ARCHITECTURE,AND VALUE CHAIN STRUCTURE:,THE DOUBLE HELIX,MODULAR PRODUCT,HORIZONTAL INDUSTRY,INTEGRAL PRODUCT,VERTICAL INDUSTRY,Fine&Whitney,“Is the Make/Buy Decision Process a Core Competence?”,PRESSURE TO,INTEGRATE,PRESSURE TO,DIS-INTEGRATE,ORGANIZATIONAL,RIGIDITIES,HIGH-,DIMENSIONAL,COMPLEXITY,NICHE,COMPETITORS,PROPRIETARY SYSTEM,PROFITABILITY,SUPPLIER,MARKET POWER,TECHNICAL ADVANCES,THE,DOUBLE HELIX,IN OTHER INDUSTRIES,TELECOMMUNICATIONS-,“MA BELL”was,Vertical/Integral,BABY BELLS&LONG LINES&CELLULAR are,Horizontal/Modular,Todays,Verizon,is going back to,Vertical/Integral,AUTOMOTIVE-,Detroit in the 1890s was,Horizontal/Modular,Ford&GM in the mid 1900s were,Vertical/Integral,Todays Auto Industry is going back to,Horizontal/Modular,TELEVISION-,RCA was,Vertical/Integral,1970S THROUGH 1990S were,Horizontal/Modular,Todays media giants are going back to,Vertical/Integral,BICYCLES-,Safety Bikes to 1890s boom to,Schwinn,to,Shimano Inside,TELECOMS:IN THE BEGINNING,THERE WAS VERTICAL INTEGRATION,AND MARKET POWER,TELEPHONE,NETWORK,VOICE,COMMUNICATION,AT&T,CABLE&BROADCAST,NETWORKS,VIDEO,ENTERTAINMENT,Cable Operators&,Network Broadcasters,DATA,NETW0RKS,CORPORATE DATA,IBM,DEC,ETC.,CONTENT,INFRASTRUCTURE,DAVE CLARK,LCS,MIT,IP BEGAT CONVERGENCE&LOSS OF MARKET POWER,THE HOURGLASS,SHOPPING,PORTALS,SEARCH,MUSIC,VIDEOS,JOKES,CHAT,EMAIL,PORNOGRAPHY,DATA,ETC.,ETC.,CONTENT,(How ephemeral?),IP,FIBER OPTIC NETWORKS,CABLE MODEMS,DSL CONNECTORS,SWITCHING SUBSTATIONS,ETC.,ETC.,INFRASTRUCTURE,(How to achieve ROI,CoC,?),IP ALLOWS CONTENT AND INFRASTRUCTURE TO BE DEVELOPED INDEPENDENTLY,DAVE,CLARK,RPCP,MIT,Controlling the Channel Through Closeness to Customers:,consumer research,pricing,promotion,product development,Retailer,Retailer,Retailer,Customers,P&G,Controlling the Chain Through Distribution:,The End of,P&G Inside,?,Controlling the Channel Through Closeness to Customers:,Chain Proximity,Retailer,Retailer,Retailer,Customers,P&G,WalMart,WalMart,Private Label,Controlling the Chain Through Distribution:,Beware of,Walmart,Outside,Battle for Channel Control-,Proprietary Systems v.Closeness to Customers,Intel,Compaq,Dell,Gateway,Customers,AMD,Nexgen,Volatility Amplification in,“The Bullwhip Effect”and,Clockspeed,Amplification in,“The Speedup Effect”,Customer,Retailer,Distributor,Factory,Tier 1,Equipment,Web Site,Developer,Chip maker,Equipment,Maker,PC Maker,Inventories&Orders fluctuate more,as you look upstream,tough on suppliers,but,Clockspeeds,accelerate as you head downstream,closer to the final customer,Competitive,Intensity from,Reduced Trade,Barriers and,Internet Commerce,Technological,Innovation in,Computing&,Communications,+,+,Mutually Reinforcing,Clockspeed,Drivers,:,Technological Innovation&Competitive Intensity,Industry&,Organization,Clockspeeds,Industry&,Organization,Clockspeeds,+,+,Media Supply Chains:,An Industry at,Lightspeed,Video/Audio:,Movies&Art,&News&Sports,Wireless:,-broadcast TV,-CDMA,TDMA,GSM,-satellite/microwave,Land-,basedTelco,:,-copper POTS,-fiber,-DSL,Customers,Television,Cable,Networks,PC/laptop,The box,The Pipe,(,Access,Metro,Backbone),The Content,Communication:,voice&video&email,Education,Internet,et al,Shopping,Wired Phone,Pager,News/articles/books,(newspapers&magazines),VCR,Retail Outlets,-Borders:,-Blockbuster,-Seven-Eleven,Wireless phone,Delivery(e.g.,Fedex,),PDA,Banking,ALL COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE,IS TEMPORARY,Autos:,Ford,in 1920,GM,in 1955,Toyota,in 1990,Computing:,IBM,in 1970,DEC,in 1980,Wintel,in 1990,World Dominion:,Greece,in 500 BC,Rome,in 100AD,G.B.,in 1800,Sports:,Bruins,in 1971,Celtics,in 1986,Yankees,no end,The faster the,clockspeed,the shorter the reign,Fruit Flies&Temporary Advantage,2.Value Chain Design&3-DCE,3.,eBusiness,Phenomena:,Business Model Innovation,4.Telecom Value Chains:,A fruit fly example,Mapping the Telecom Value Chain:,A Roadmap for Communications Networks,VALUE CHAIN DESIGN:,Three Components,1.,Insourcing,/,OutSourcing,(The Make/Buy or Vertical Integration Decision),2.Partner Selection,(Choice of suppliers and partners for the chain),3.The Contractual Relationship,(Arms length,joint venture,long-term contract,strategic alliance,equity participation,etc.),IMPLEMENTATION OF VALUE CHAIN DESIGN:,EMBED IT IN 3-D CONCURRENT ENGINEERING,PRODUCT,PROCESS,VALUE CHAIN,Recipe,Unit Process,Details,Strategy,Performance,Specifications,Product Architecture,Make/Buy components,Time,Space,Availability,Technology,&,Process Planning,Manufacturing System,Make/Buy processes,Integral product architectures,feature,close coupling among the elements,-Elements perform many functions -Elements are in close,spacial,proximity -Elements are tightly synchronized,-Ex:jet engine,airplane wing,microprocessor,Modular product architectures,feature,separation among the elements,-Elements are interchangeable -Elements are individually upgradeable -Element interfaces are standardized -System failures can be localized,-,Ex:stereo system,desktop PC,bicycle,ARCHITECTURES IN 3-D,INTEGRALITY,VS.,MODULARITY,VALUE CHAIN ARCHITECTURE,Integral value-chain architecture features close proximity among its elements,-Proximity metrics:Geographic,Organizational Cultural,Electronic,-Example:Toyota city -Example:Ma Bell(AT&T in New Jersey)-Example:IBM mainframes&Hudson River Valley,Modular value-chain architecture features multiple,interchangeable supplier and standard interfaces,-Example:Garment industry -Example:PC industry -Example:General Motors global sourcing,-Example:Telephones and telephone service,DESIGNING ARCHITECTURES FOR PRODUCTS&VALUE CHAINS:THE NEED FOR ALIGNMENT,INTEGRAL,MODULAR,PRODUCT,ARCHITECTURE,VALUE CHAIN ARCHITECTURE,(Geog.,Organ.,Cultural,Elec,.),Jet engines,Microprocessors,Mercedes vehicles,Personal ComputersBicycles,Chrysler Vehicles,Cisco,INTEGRAL,MODULAR,Polaroid,Nortel,Automotive,Supplier Parks,DESIGNING ARCHITECTURES FOR,PRODUCTS&VALUE CHAINS:,MODULARITY VS.OPENNESS,INTEGRAL,MODULAR,ARCHITECTURAL,STRUCTURE,ARCHITECTURAL,PROPRIETARINESS,Pentium ChipMercedes Vehicles,SAP ERP,Palm Pilot,software&accessories,Phones&service,Web-based ERP,CLOSED,OPEN,IBM Mainframes,Microsoft,Windows,Chrysler Vehicles,Linux,INFORMATION ARCHITECTURE MUST,REFLECT BUSINESS MODEL,In/Outsourcing:,Sowing the Seeds of Competence Development to develop,dependence for knowledge,or,dependence for capacity,+,+,+,Amount of,Work,Done In-house,knowledge,+/or supply,Amount of,Internal,Learning,Internal,Capability,+,+,Amount of,Work Outsourced,knowledge,+/or supply,Amount of,Supplier,Learning,Supplier,Capability,Dependence,Independence,+,Japanese,industry,size&,capability,Japanese,appeal as,subcontractors,U.S.,industry,size&,capability,U.S.firms,appeal as,subcontractors,Boeing,outsources,to Japan,(Mitsubishi Inside?),Japanese,Industry,Autonomy,+,+,+,+,-,+,Technology Dynamics,in the Aircraft Industry:,LEARNING FROM THE DINOSAURS,SOURCEABLE ELEMENTS,PROCESS ELEMENTS,SUBSYSTEMS,PRODUCTS,I4,V6 V8,ENGINEERING,ASSY,TEST,CONTROLLER,VALVETRAIN,BLOCK,DEPENDENT FOR,KNOWLEDGE,&CAPACITY,INDEPENDENT FOR,KNOWLEDGE&,DEPENDENT FOR,CAPACITY,BEST,OUTSOURCING,OPPORTUNITY,WORST,OUTSOURCING,SITUATION,CAN,LIVE,WITH,OUTSOURCING,A,POTENTIAL,OUTSOURCING,TRAP,ITEM IS MODULAR,ITEM IS INTEGRAL,Strategic Make/Buy Decisions:Assess Critical Knowledge&Product Architecture,Adapted from Fine&Whitney,“Is the Make/Buy Decision Process a Core Competence?”,INDEPENDENT FOR,KNOWLEDGE&CAPACITY,BEST,INSOURCING,SITUATION,OVERKILL,IN,VERTICAL,INTEGRATION,Strategic Make/Buy Decisions:Also consider,Clockspeed,&Supply Base Capability,Adapted from C.Fine,Clockspeed,Chap.9,DEPENDENT FOR,KNOWLEDGE&CAPACITY,DEPENDENT FOR,CAPACITY ONLY,DECOMPOSABLE,(Modular),INTEGRAL,Clockspeed,Suppliers,Few Many,Fast Slow,Clockspeed,Suppliers,Few Many,Fast Slow,Clockspeed,Suppliers,Few Many,Fast Slow,Clockspeed,Suppliers,Few Many,Fast Slow,OK,Watch,it!,Trap,Best,Out,Worst,OK,INDEPENDENT FOR,KNOWLEDGE&CAPACITY,Clockspeed,Suppliers,Few Many,Fast Slow,Clockspeed,Suppliers,Few Many,Fast Slow,Over-kill,Best In,Qualitative analysis of strategic importance uses five key criteria,Customer,Importance:,High,Medium,Low,Technology Clockspeed:,Fast,Medium,Slow,Competitive,Position:,Advantage,Parity,Disadvantage,Capable Suppliers:,None,Few,Many,Architecture:,Integral,Modular,Possible Decisions(Knowledge&Supply):,Insource,Outsource,Partner/Acquire,Partial Insource,Partial Outsource,Invest,Spin Off,Develop Suppliers,Competitive,Position:,Advantage,Parity,Disadvantage,Criteria are applied differently for Products than for Subsystems,Value chain elements with high customer importance and fast clockspeed are generally strategic(unless there are many capable suppliers),Competitive position is seldom the primary consideration for strategic importance,rather it serves as a“tie-breaker”when other criteria are in conflict,When many capable suppliers exist,knowledge may be considered commodity and development should be outsourced,Architecture is considered a constraint for the sourcing decision model,controls the,level,of engineering that must be kept in house for integration purposes,Model developed by GM,Powertrain,PRTM,&,Clockspeed,Inc.,Sourcing Strategy Decision Tree-High Customer Importance Path,Customer,Importance?,Technology,Clockspeed?,Competitive,Position?,High,Low,Fast,Slow,Capable,Suppliers,?,None,Many,Competitive,Position?,Architecture,?,Few,Strong,Minimal,Outsource-,Invest,Minimal Outsource-Invest,Integral,Minimal Outsource-Equity/Acquire and Partner,Minimal Outsource-Equity/Acquire,Modular,Architecture?,Integral,Minimal Outsource-Equity/Acquire&Partner,Outsource All,Modular,Weak,Capable,Suppliers,?,None,Many,Few,Minimal Outsource-Invest for