©2010-2026 宁波自信网络信息技术有限公司 版权所有
客服电话：0574-28810668 投诉电话：18658249818
浙ICP备2021020529号-1 | 浙B2-20240490
关注我们 ：
1、GenCost202324FinalreportPaulGraham,JennyHaywardandJamesFosterMay2024AustraliasNationalScienceAgencyGenCost202324|iContactPaulGraham+61249606061paul.grahamcsiro.auCitationGraham,P.,Hayward,J.andFosterJ.2024,GenCost202324:Finalreport,CSIRO,Australia.CopyrightCommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearch
2、Organisation2024.Totheextentpermittedbylaw,allrightsarereservedandnopartofthispublicationcoveredbycopyrightmaybereproducedorcopiedinanyformorbyanymeansexceptwiththewrittenpermissionofCSIRO.ImportantdisclaimerCSIROadvisesthattheinformationcontainedinthispublicationcomprisesgeneralstatementsbasedonsci
3、entificresearch.Thereaderisadvisedandneedstobeawarethatsuchinformationmaybeincompleteorunabletobeusedinanyspecificsituation.Norelianceoractionsmustthereforebemadeonthatinformationwithoutseekingpriorexpertprofessional,scientificandtechnicaladvice.Totheextentpermittedbylaw,CSIRO(includingitsemployeesa
4、ndconsultants)excludesallliabilitytoanypersonforanyconsequences,includingbutnotlimitedtoalllosses,damages,costs,expensesandanyothercompensation,arisingdirectlyorindirectlyfromusingthispublication(inpartorinwhole)andanyinformationormaterialcontainedinit.CSIROiscommittedtoprovidingwebaccessiblecontent
5、whereverpossible.Ifyouarehavingdifficultieswithaccessingthisdocumentpleasecontactwww.csiro.au/en/contact.ii|CSIROAustraliasNationalScienceAgencyContentsAcknowledgements.viiExecutivesummary.viii1Introduction.141.1ScopeoftheGenCostprojectandreporting.141.2Feedbackreceivedfromtheconsultation.151.3Chang
6、esmadeinresponsetofeedback.162Currenttechnologycosts.262.1Currentcostdefinition.262.2Capitalcostsource.272.3Currentgenerationtechnologycapitalcosts.282.4UpdateoncurrentcostofnuclearSMR.292.5Estimatinglargescalenuclearcosts.312.6Perceivedinconsistencybetweenhighnuclearcapitalcostsandlowcostnuclearele
7、ctricityoverseas.332.7TimingofdeploymentofnuclearinAustralia.332.8Currentstoragetechnologycapitalcosts.363Scenarionarrativesanddataassumptions.403.1Scenarionarratives.404Projectionresults.424.1Shortterminflationarypressures.424.2Globalgenerationmix.434.3Changesincapitalcostprojections.455Levelisedco
8、stofelectricityanalysis.645.1PurposeandlimitationsofLCOE.645.2LCOEestimates.655.3Storagerequirementsunderpinningvariablerenewablecosts.75Globalandlocallearningmodel.78Datatables.81Dataassumptions.94Frequentlyaskedquestions.103GenCost202324|iiiTechnologyinclusionprinciples.119Shortenedforms.122Refere
9、nces.125iv|CSIROAustraliasNationalScienceAgencyFiguresFigure21Comparisonofcurrentcapitalcostestimateswithpreviousreports.28Figure22ChangeincurrentcapitalcostsofselectedtechnologiesrelativetoGenCost202223(inrealterms).29Figure23TimelineofnuclearSMRcostestimates(calendaryear)andcurrentcostsincludedine
10、achGenCostreport(financialyearbeginning).31Figure24Newgenerationprojectstages.35Figure25Capitalcostsofstoragetechnologiesin$/kWh(totalcostbasis).37Figure26Capitalcostsofstoragetechnologiesin$/kW(totalcostbasis).38Figure41Projectedglobalelectricitygenerationmixin2030and2050byscenario.44Figure42Global
11、hydrogenproductionbytechnologyandscenario,Mt.45Figure43Projectedcapitalcostsforblackcoalultrasupercriticalbyscenario.46Figure44ProjectedcapitalcostsforblackcoalwithCCSbyscenariocomparedto202223projections.47Figure45Projectedcapitalcostsforgascombinedcyclebyscenariocomparedto202223projections.48Figur
12、e46ProjectedcapitalcostsforgaswithCCSbyscenariocomparedto202223projections.49Figure47Projectedcapitalcostsforgasopencycle(small)byscenariocomparedto202223projections.50Figure48ProjectedcapitalcostsfornuclearSMRbyscenariocomparedto202223projections.51Figure49Projectedcapitalcostsforlargescalenuclearb
13、yscenario.52Figure410Projectedcapitalcostsforsolarthermalwith14hoursstoragecomparedto202223projections(whichwasbasedon15hoursstorage).53Figure411ProjectedcapitalcostsforlargescalesolarPVbyscenariocomparedto202223projections.54Figure412ProjectedcapitalcostsforrooftopsolarPVbyscenariocomparedto202223p
14、rojections.55Figure413Projectedcapitalcostsforonshorewindbyscenariocomparedto202223projections.56Figure414Projectedcapitalcostsforfixedandfloatingoffshorewindbyscenariocomparedto202223projections.57Figure415Projectedtotalcapitalcostsfor2hourdurationbatteriesbyscenario(batteryandbalanceofplant).58Fig
15、ure416Projectedcapitalcostsforpumpedhydroenergystorage(12hours)byscenario.59GenCost202324|vFigure417ProjectedtechnologycapitalcostsundertheCurrentpoliciesscenariocomparedto202223projections.60Figure418ProjectedtechnologycapitalcostsundertheGlobalNZEby2050scenariocomparedto202223projections.61Figure4
16、19ProjectedtechnologycapitalcostsundertheGlobalNZEpost2050scenariocomparedto202223projections.62Figure420ProjectedtechnologycapitalcostsforalkalineandPEMelectrolysersbyscenario,comparedto202223.63Figure51Rangeofgenerationandstoragecapacitydeployedin2030acrossthe9weatheryearcounterfactualsinNEMplusWe
17、sternAustralia.69Figure52Levelisedcostsofachieving60%,70%,80%and90%annualvariablerenewableenergysharesintheNEMin2023andin2030.70Figure53CalculatedLCOEbytechnologyandcategoryfor2023.72Figure54CalculatedLCOEbytechnologyandcategoryfor2030.73Figure55CalculatedLCOEbytechnologyandcategoryfor2040.74Figure5
18、6CalculatedLCOEbytechnologyandcategoryfor2050.75Figure572030NEMmaximumdemand,demandatlowestrenewablegenerationandgenerationcapacityunder90%variablerenewablegenerationshare.76ApxFigureA.1Schematicofchangesinthelearningrateasatechnologyprogressesthroughitsdevelopmentstagesaftercommercialisation.79ApxF
19、igureC.1ProjectedEVsalesshareundertheCurrentpoliciesscenario.98ApxFigureC.2ProjectedEVadoptioncurve(vehiclesalesshare)undertheGlobalNZEby2050scenario.98ApxFigureC.3ProjectedEVsalesshareundertheGlobalNZEpost2050scenario.99TablesTable31Summaryofscenariosandtheirkeyassumptions.41Table51QuestionstheLCOE
20、dataaredesignedtoanswer.66Table52Committedinvestmentsbycategoryincludedinthe2023costofintegratingvariablerenewables.68ApxTableA.1Costbreakdownofoffshorewind.80ApxTableB.1CurrentandprojectedgenerationtechnologycapitalcostsundertheCurrentpoliciesscenario.82vi|CSIROAustraliasNationalScienceAgencyApxTab
21、leB.2CurrentandprojectedgenerationtechnologycapitalcostsundertheGlobalNZEby2050scenario.83ApxTableB.3CurrentandprojectedgenerationtechnologycapitalcostsundertheGlobalNZEpost2050scenario.84ApxTableB.4Oneandtwohourbatterycostdatabystorageduration,componentandtotalcosts(multiplybydurationtoconvertto$/k
22、W).85ApxTableB.5Fourandeighthourbatterycostdatabystorageduration,componentandtotalcosts(multiplybydurationtoconvertto$/kW).86ApxTableB.6Twelveandtwentyfourhourbatterycostdatabystorageduration,componentandtotalcosts(multiplybydurationtoconvertto$/kW).87ApxTableB.7Pumpedhydrostoragecostdatabyduration,
23、allscenarios,totalcostbasis.88ApxTableB.8Storagecurrentcostdatabysource,totalcostbasis.89ApxTableB.9DataassumptionsforLCOEcalculations.90ApxTableB.10ElectricitygenerationtechnologyLCOEprojectionsdata,202324$/MWh.92ApxTableB.11Hydrogenelectrolysercostprojectionsbyscenarioandtechnology,$/kW.93ApxTable
24、C.1Assumedtechnologylearningratesthatvarybyscenario.94ApxTableC.2Assumedtechnologylearningratesthatarethesameunderallscenarios.96ApxTableC.3Hydrogendemandassumptionsbyscenarioin2050.100ApxTableC.4Maximumrenewablegenerationsharesintheyear2050undertheCurrentpoliciesscenario,exceptforoffshorewindwhichi
25、sinGWofinstalledcapacity.101ApxTableD.1ComparisonoflimitingfactorsappliedinacademicliteraturetothecalculationofvariablerenewableintegrationcostsandtheGenCostapproach.112ApxTableE.1Examplesofconsideringglobalordomesticsignficance.120GenCost202324|viiAcknowledgementsThisreportincorporatesfeedbackrecei
26、vedfromstakeholderinputfollowingthepublicationofaconsultationdraftinDecember2023.Theauthorsgreatlyappreciatethetimestakeholdershavegiventosupporttheproject.WecontinuetorelyonthecollectivedeepexpertiseoftheenergycommunitytoreviewGenCosttoimproveitsquality.viii|CSIROAustraliasNationalScienceAgencyExec
27、utivesummaryTechnologicalchangeinelectricitygenerationisaglobaleffortthatisstronglylinkedtoglobalclimatechangepolicyambitions.Whiletherateofchangeremainsuncertain,inbroadterms,worldleaderscontinuetoprovidetheirsupportforcollectiveactionlimitingglobalaveragetemperatures.Atadomesticlevel,theCommonweal
28、thgovernment,togetherwithallAustralianstatesandterritoriesaspiretoorhavelegislatednetzeroemissions(NZE)by2050targets.Globally,renewables(ledbywindandsolarPV)arethefastestgrowingenergysource,andtheroleofelectricityisexpectedtoincreasemateriallyoverthenext30yearswithelectricitytechnologiespresentingso
29、meofthelowestcostabatementopportunities.PurposeandscopeGenCostisacollaborationbetweenCSIROandAEMOtodeliveranannualprocessofupdatingthecostsofelectricitygeneration,energystorageandhydrogenproductionwithastrongemphasisonstakeholderengagement.GenCostrepresentsAustraliasmostcomprehensiveelectricitygener
30、ationcostprojectionreport.Itusesthebestavailableinformationeachcycletoprovideanobjectiveannualbenchmarkoncostprojectionsandupdatesforecastsaccordinglytoguidedecisionmaking,givenelectricitycostschangesignificantlyeachyear.Thisisthesixthupdatefollowingtheinauguralreportin2018.Technologycostsareonepiec
31、eofthepuzzle.Theyareanimportantinputtoelectricitysectoranalysiswhichiswhywehavemadeconsultationanimportantpartoftheprocessofupdatingdataandprojections.ThereportencompassesupdatedcurrentcapitalcostestimatescommissionedbyAEMOanddeliveredbyAurecon.Basedontheseupdatedcurrentcapitalcosts,thereportprovide
32、sprojectionsoffuturechangesincostsconsistentwithupdatedglobalelectricityscenarioswhichincorporatedifferentlevelsofachievementofglobalclimatepolicyambition.Levelisedcostsofelectricity(LCOEs)arealsoincludedandprovideasummaryoftherelativecompetitivenessofgenerationtechnologies.Outcomesof202324consultat
33、ionGenCostreceivedthehighestvolumeoffeedbacktotheconsultationdraftinitshistorywith45writtensubmissionsandmanyparticipatingforthefirsttime.Thisinputhasledtoseveralchanges,themostsignificantofwhichbeingtheinclusionoflargescalenuclearinthereportforthefirsttime.GenCosthasalsoincreasedwindgenerationcosts
34、anddevelopedarevisedapproachforincludingsolarthermalgenerationcostsonacommonbasiswithotherbulksupplytechnologies.Consultationcontinuestobeavaluablewayofimprovingthequalityofthereportgiventhatnosingleorganisationcancoverthebreadthoftechnologiesexplored.Feedbackcantaketheformofsuggestionsandquestions.
35、Giventhevolumeoffeedbackithasnotbeenpossibletoindividuallyaddresseveryquestionraisedinthebodyofthisreport.However,wehavenowaddedAppendixDwhichaddressesthemajorcommonquestionsandanswers.GenCost202324|ixKeychangesincapitalcostsinthepastyearTheCOVID19pandemicledtoglobalsupplychainconstraintswhichimpact
36、edthepricesofrawmaterialsneededintechnologymanufacturingandinfreightcosts.Consequentlythe202223GenCostreportobservedanaverage20%increaseintechnologycosts.Oneyearon,theinflationarypressureshaveconsiderablyeasedbuttheresultsaremixed.Thecapitalcostsofonshorewindgenerationtechnologyincreasedbyafurther8%
37、whilelargescalesolarPVhasfallenbythesameproportion.Gasturbinetechnologiesweretheothermaingrouptoexperiencecostincreasesofupto14%(ESFigure01).Thecapitalcostsofothertechnologieswererelativelysteady.Technologiesareaffecteddifferentlybecausetheyeachhaveauniquesetofmaterialinputsandsupplychains.ESFigure0
38、1ChangeincurrentcapitalcostsofselectedtechnologiesrelativetoGenCost202223(inrealterms)Additionofintegrationcostsforvariablerenewablesin2023SolarPVandwindarecalledvariablerenewablesduetotheirweatherdependency.The202324GenCostreportincludesintegrationcostsforvariablerenewablesin2023forthefirsttimeandi
39、ncorporatesitintheLCOE.Mostnewbuildtechnologiescanenteranelectricitysystemandprovidereliablepowerbyrelyingonexistingcapacity.Existingcapacitycanprovidegenerationattimeswhenthenewplantisnotavailableorwhendemandisrisingbutthenewbuildtechnologyisalreadyatfullproduction.Thisincludesnewbuildvariablerenew
40、ableswhentheyareintheminority.However,astheirshareincreases,forcingtheretirementofexistingflexiblecapacity,thesystemwillfinditincreasinglydifficulttoprovidereliablesupplywithoutadditionalinvestment.Toaddressthisissue,GenCostcalculatestheadditionalcostofmakingvariablerenewablesreliableatsharesof60%,7
41、0%,80%and90%1.Wecalltheseadditionalcoststheintegrationcostsofvariablerenewablesandtheyconsistmainlyofadditionalstorageandtransmissioncosts.190%isaboutashighasvariablerenewabledeploymentislikelytoneedtogoasincreasingitfurtherwouldresultintheundesirableoutcomeofshuttingdownexistingnonvariablerenewable
42、generationfrombiomassandhydroelectricsources.5%2%3%14%10%6%2%8%8%2%BrowncoalBlackcoal BlackcoalwithCCSGascombinedcycleGaswithCCSGasopencycle(large)RooftopPVLargescalePVWind(onshore)Battery(2hr)x|CSIROAustraliasNationalScienceAgencyFeedbackfromthe202223GenCostreportrequestedthatintegrationcostsbepres
43、entedthataccountforstorageandtransmissionprojectsthatwillbedeliveredbefore2030sincetheyhavebeensponsoredbygovernmentorapprovedbytherelevantregulatoronthebasisthattheywillbeneededtosupportvariablerenewables.Toaccommodatethatrequest,wepresentvariablerenewableintegrationcostsfor2023whichincludecommitte
44、dandunderconstructionpre2030storageandtransmissionprojects.2030LCOEresultsarealsoincludedbutcontinuetoexcludethesepre2030costssinceby2030theywillrepresentexistingcapacity.TheresultsindicatethatthecostofdeployinghighVREsharesis12%to36%higherin2023thanin2030.Aroundtwothirdsofthehighercostsareduetoinve
45、storshavingtopay2023insteadof2030technologycosts.Technologycostsarefallingovertime.Theremainderofthedifferenceisduetothecostofthepre2030committedandunderconstructionstorageandtransmissionprojects.Totalintegrationcoststomakehighsharesofvariablerenewablesreliableareestimatedat$41/MWhto$49/MWhin2023and
46、28to$53/MWhin2030dependingontheVREshare.AdditionoflargescalenucleartoGenCostAmajorityofsubmissionstothe202324consultationprocessrequestedtheinclusionoflargescalenuclearinadditiontonuclearsmallmodularreactors(SMR)thathadbeenincludedinGenCostsinceitsinceptionin2018.InresponseGenCostreexaminedtheappro
47、priatenessoflargescalenuclearandconcludedthat,althoughthedeploymentoflargescalenuclearwouldrequireasignificantincreaseinthereservemarginrelativetoSMRandexistingAustraliangenerationplants,therewasnoknowntechnicalconstrainttodeployinggenerationunitsofthissize.Itwasalsoconcluded,duetothecurrentstateoft
48、hedevelopmentpipelineinAustralia,thattheearliestdeploymentwouldbefrom2040.TosourceappropriatelargescalenuclearcostsforAustralia,itisnecessarytorelyoncostsoflargescalenucleardeployedinothercountries.SuchcostsarenotdirectlytransferabletoAustraliaduetodifferencesinamultitudeoffactorsincludinglabourcost
49、s,workforceskills,governanceandstandards.Thesourcecountryforlargescalenuclearcostdataalsohastobecarefullyselectedbecausetherearelargedifferencesincostsbetweencountries.ThelowestcostsoccurincountriessuchasSouthKoreawhichhasdeliveredacontinuousbuildingprogramformanyyearsandcostsaregenerallyhigherinwes
50、terncountrieswhichhavetendedtohavemoresporadicbuildingprograms.GenCostbaseditslargescalenuclearcostonSouthKoreancostsasthebestrepresentationofacontinuousbuildingprogramconsistentwithothertechnologiesinthereport.GenCostthenadjustedfordifferencesinAustralianandSouthKoreandeploymentcostsbystudyingthera
©2010-2026 宁波自信网络信息技术有限公司 版权所有
客服电话：0574-28810668 投诉电话：18658249818
浙ICP备2021020529号-1 | 浙B2-20240490
关注我们 ：
