发电成本（2023~2024年）.pdf

GenCost202324FinalreportPaulGraham,JennyHaywardandJamesFosterMay2024AustraliasNationalScienceAgencyGenCost202324|iContactPaulGraham+61249606061paul.grahamcsiro.auCitationGraham,P.,Hayward,J.andFosterJ.2024,GenCost202324:Finalreport,CSIRO,Australia.CopyrightCommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation2024.Totheextentpermittedbylaw,allrightsarereservedandnopartofthispublicationcoveredbycopyrightmaybereproducedorcopiedinanyformorbyanymeansexceptwiththewrittenpermissionofCSIRO.ImportantdisclaimerCSIROadvisesthattheinformationcontainedinthispublicationcomprisesgeneralstatementsbasedonscientificresearch.Thereaderisadvisedandneedstobeawarethatsuchinformationmaybeincompleteorunabletobeusedinanyspecificsituation.Norelianceoractionsmustthereforebemadeonthatinformationwithoutseekingpriorexpertprofessional,scientificandtechnicaladvice.Totheextentpermittedbylaw,CSIRO(includingitsemployeesandconsultants)excludesallliabilitytoanypersonforanyconsequences,includingbutnotlimitedtoalllosses,damages,costs,expensesandanyothercompensation,arisingdirectlyorindirectlyfromusingthispublication(inpartorinwhole)andanyinformationormaterialcontainedinit.CSIROiscommittedtoprovidingwebaccessiblecontentwhereverpossible.Ifyouarehavingdifficultieswithaccessingthisdocumentpleasecontactwww.csiro.au/en/contact.ii|CSIROAustraliasNationalScienceAgencyContentsAcknowledgements.viiExecutivesummary.viii1Introduction.141.1ScopeoftheGenCostprojectandreporting.141.2Feedbackreceivedfromtheconsultation.151.3Changesmadeinresponsetofeedback.162Currenttechnologycosts.262.1Currentcostdefinition.262.2Capitalcostsource.272.3Currentgenerationtechnologycapitalcosts.282.4UpdateoncurrentcostofnuclearSMR.292.5Estimatinglargescalenuclearcosts.312.6Perceivedinconsistencybetweenhighnuclearcapitalcostsandlowcostnuclearelectricityoverseas.332.7TimingofdeploymentofnuclearinAustralia.332.8Currentstoragetechnologycapitalcosts.363Scenarionarrativesanddataassumptions.403.1Scenarionarratives.404Projectionresults.424.1Shortterminflationarypressures.424.2Globalgenerationmix.434.3Changesincapitalcostprojections.455Levelisedcostofelectricityanalysis.645.1PurposeandlimitationsofLCOE.645.2LCOEestimates.655.3Storagerequirementsunderpinningvariablerenewablecosts.75Globalandlocallearningmodel.78Datatables.81Dataassumptions.94Frequentlyaskedquestions.103GenCost202324|iiiTechnologyinclusionprinciples.119Shortenedforms.122References.125iv|CSIROAustraliasNationalScienceAgencyFiguresFigure21Comparisonofcurrentcapitalcostestimateswithpreviousreports.28Figure22ChangeincurrentcapitalcostsofselectedtechnologiesrelativetoGenCost202223(inrealterms).29Figure23TimelineofnuclearSMRcostestimates(calendaryear)andcurrentcostsincludedineachGenCostreport(financialyearbeginning).31Figure24Newgenerationprojectstages.35Figure25Capitalcostsofstoragetechnologiesin$/kWh(totalcostbasis).37Figure26Capitalcostsofstoragetechnologiesin$/kW(totalcostbasis).38Figure41Projectedglobalelectricitygenerationmixin2030and2050byscenario.44Figure42Globalhydrogenproductionbytechnologyandscenario,Mt.45Figure43Projectedcapitalcostsforblackcoalultrasupercriticalbyscenario.46Figure44ProjectedcapitalcostsforblackcoalwithCCSbyscenariocomparedto202223projections.47Figure45Projectedcapitalcostsforgascombinedcyclebyscenariocomparedto202223projections.48Figure46ProjectedcapitalcostsforgaswithCCSbyscenariocomparedto202223projections.49Figure47Projectedcapitalcostsforgasopencycle(small)byscenariocomparedto202223projections.50Figure48ProjectedcapitalcostsfornuclearSMRbyscenariocomparedto202223projections.51Figure49Projectedcapitalcostsforlargescalenuclearbyscenario.52Figure410Projectedcapitalcostsforsolarthermalwith14hoursstoragecomparedto202223projections(whichwasbasedon15hoursstorage).53Figure411ProjectedcapitalcostsforlargescalesolarPVbyscenariocomparedto202223projections.54Figure412ProjectedcapitalcostsforrooftopsolarPVbyscenariocomparedto202223projections.55Figure413Projectedcapitalcostsforonshorewindbyscenariocomparedto202223projections.56Figure414Projectedcapitalcostsforfixedandfloatingoffshorewindbyscenariocomparedto202223projections.57Figure415Projectedtotalcapitalcostsfor2hourdurationbatteriesbyscenario(batteryandbalanceofplant).58Figure416Projectedcapitalcostsforpumpedhydroenergystorage(12hours)byscenario.59GenCost202324|vFigure417ProjectedtechnologycapitalcostsundertheCurrentpoliciesscenariocomparedto202223projections.60Figure418ProjectedtechnologycapitalcostsundertheGlobalNZEby2050scenariocomparedto202223projections.61Figure419ProjectedtechnologycapitalcostsundertheGlobalNZEpost2050scenariocomparedto202223projections.62Figure420ProjectedtechnologycapitalcostsforalkalineandPEMelectrolysersbyscenario,comparedto202223.63Figure51Rangeofgenerationandstoragecapacitydeployedin2030acrossthe9weatheryearcounterfactualsinNEMplusWesternAustralia.69Figure52Levelisedcostsofachieving60%,70%,80%and90%annualvariablerenewableenergysharesintheNEMin2023andin2030.70Figure53CalculatedLCOEbytechnologyandcategoryfor2023.72Figure54CalculatedLCOEbytechnologyandcategoryfor2030.73Figure55CalculatedLCOEbytechnologyandcategoryfor2040.74Figure56CalculatedLCOEbytechnologyandcategoryfor2050.75Figure572030NEMmaximumdemand,demandatlowestrenewablegenerationandgenerationcapacityunder90%variablerenewablegenerationshare.76ApxFigureA.1Schematicofchangesinthelearningrateasatechnologyprogressesthroughitsdevelopmentstagesaftercommercialisation.79ApxFigureC.1ProjectedEVsalesshareundertheCurrentpoliciesscenario.98ApxFigureC.2ProjectedEVadoptioncurve(vehiclesalesshare)undertheGlobalNZEby2050scenario.98ApxFigureC.3ProjectedEVsalesshareundertheGlobalNZEpost2050scenario.99TablesTable31Summaryofscenariosandtheirkeyassumptions.41Table51QuestionstheLCOEdataaredesignedtoanswer.66Table52Committedinvestmentsbycategoryincludedinthe2023costofintegratingvariablerenewables.68ApxTableA.1Costbreakdownofoffshorewind.80ApxTableB.1CurrentandprojectedgenerationtechnologycapitalcostsundertheCurrentpoliciesscenario.82vi|CSIROAustraliasNationalScienceAgencyApxTableB.2CurrentandprojectedgenerationtechnologycapitalcostsundertheGlobalNZEby2050scenario.83ApxTableB.3CurrentandprojectedgenerationtechnologycapitalcostsundertheGlobalNZEpost2050scenario.84ApxTableB.4Oneandtwohourbatterycostdatabystorageduration,componentandtotalcosts(multiplybydurationtoconvertto$/kW).85ApxTableB.5Fourandeighthourbatterycostdatabystorageduration,componentandtotalcosts(multiplybydurationtoconvertto$/kW).86ApxTableB.6Twelveandtwentyfourhourbatterycostdatabystorageduration,componentandtotalcosts(multiplybydurationtoconvertto$/kW).87ApxTableB.7Pumpedhydrostoragecostdatabyduration,allscenarios,totalcostbasis.88ApxTableB.8Storagecurrentcostdatabysource,totalcostbasis.89ApxTableB.9DataassumptionsforLCOEcalculations.90ApxTableB.10ElectricitygenerationtechnologyLCOEprojectionsdata,202324$/MWh.92ApxTableB.11Hydrogenelectrolysercostprojectionsbyscenarioandtechnology,$/kW.93ApxTableC.1Assumedtechnologylearningratesthatvarybyscenario.94ApxTableC.2Assumedtechnologylearningratesthatarethesameunderallscenarios.96ApxTableC.3Hydrogendemandassumptionsbyscenarioin2050.100ApxTableC.4Maximumrenewablegenerationsharesintheyear2050undertheCurrentpoliciesscenario,exceptforoffshorewindwhichisinGWofinstalledcapacity.101ApxTableD.1ComparisonoflimitingfactorsappliedinacademicliteraturetothecalculationofvariablerenewableintegrationcostsandtheGenCostapproach.112ApxTableE.1Examplesofconsideringglobalordomesticsignficance.120GenCost202324|viiAcknowledgementsThisreportincorporatesfeedbackreceivedfromstakeholderinputfollowingthepublicationofaconsultationdraftinDecember2023.Theauthorsgreatlyappreciatethetimestakeholdershavegiventosupporttheproject.WecontinuetorelyonthecollectivedeepexpertiseoftheenergycommunitytoreviewGenCosttoimproveitsquality.viii|CSIROAustraliasNationalScienceAgencyExecutivesummaryTechnologicalchangeinelectricitygenerationisaglobaleffortthatisstronglylinkedtoglobalclimatechangepolicyambitions.Whiletherateofchangeremainsuncertain,inbroadterms,worldleaderscontinuetoprovidetheirsupportforcollectiveactionlimitingglobalaveragetemperatures.Atadomesticlevel,theCommonwealthgovernment,togetherwithallAustralianstatesandterritoriesaspiretoorhavelegislatednetzeroemissions(NZE)by2050targets.Globally,renewables(ledbywindandsolarPV)arethefastestgrowingenergysource,andtheroleofelectricityisexpectedtoincreasemateriallyoverthenext30yearswithelectricitytechnologiespresentingsomeofthelowestcostabatementopportunities.PurposeandscopeGenCostisacollaborationbetweenCSIROandAEMOtodeliveranannualprocessofupdatingthecostsofelectricitygeneration,energystorageandhydrogenproductionwithastrongemphasisonstakeholderengagement.GenCostrepresentsAustraliasmostcomprehensiveelectricitygenerationcostprojectionreport.Itusesthebestavailableinformationeachcycletoprovideanobjectiveannualbenchmarkoncostprojectionsandupdatesforecastsaccordinglytoguidedecisionmaking,givenelectricitycostschangesignificantlyeachyear.Thisisthesixthupdatefollowingtheinauguralreportin2018.Technologycostsareonepieceofthepuzzle.Theyareanimportantinputtoelectricitysectoranalysiswhichiswhywehavemadeconsultationanimportantpartoftheprocessofupdatingdataandprojections.ThereportencompassesupdatedcurrentcapitalcostestimatescommissionedbyAEMOanddeliveredbyAurecon.Basedontheseupdatedcurrentcapitalcosts,thereportprovidesprojectionsoffuturechangesincostsconsistentwithupdatedglobalelectricityscenarioswhichincorporatedifferentlevelsofachievementofglobalclimatepolicyambition.Levelisedcostsofelectricity(LCOEs)arealsoincludedandprovideasummaryoftherelativecompetitivenessofgenerationtechnologies.Outcomesof202324consultationGenCostreceivedthehighestvolumeoffeedbacktotheconsultationdraftinitshistorywith45writtensubmissionsandmanyparticipatingforthefirsttime.Thisinputhasledtoseveralchanges,themostsignificantofwhichbeingtheinclusionoflargescalenuclearinthereportforthefirsttime.GenCosthasalsoincreasedwindgenerationcostsanddevelopedarevisedapproachforincludingsolarthermalgenerationcostsonacommonbasiswithotherbulksupplytechnologies.Consultationcontinuestobeavaluablewayofimprovingthequalityofthereportgiventhatnosingleorganisationcancoverthebreadthoftechnologiesexplored.Feedbackcantaketheformofsuggestionsandquestions.Giventhevolumeoffeedbackithasnotbeenpossibletoindividuallyaddresseveryquestionraisedinthebodyofthisreport.However,wehavenowaddedAppendixDwhichaddressesthemajorcommonquestionsandanswers.GenCost202324|ixKeychangesincapitalcostsinthepastyearTheCOVID19pandemicledtoglobalsupplychainconstraintswhichimpactedthepricesofrawmaterialsneededintechnologymanufacturingandinfreightcosts.Consequentlythe202223GenCostreportobservedanaverage20%increaseintechnologycosts.Oneyearon,theinflationarypressureshaveconsiderablyeasedbuttheresultsaremixed.Thecapitalcostsofonshorewindgenerationtechnologyincreasedbyafurther8%whilelargescalesolarPVhasfallenbythesameproportion.Gasturbinetechnologiesweretheothermaingrouptoexperiencecostincreasesofupto14%(ESFigure01).Thecapitalcostsofothertechnologieswererelativelysteady.Technologiesareaffecteddifferentlybecausetheyeachhaveauniquesetofmaterialinputsandsupplychains.ESFigure01ChangeincurrentcapitalcostsofselectedtechnologiesrelativetoGenCost202223(inrealterms)Additionofintegrationcostsforvariablerenewablesin2023SolarPVandwindarecalledvariablerenewablesduetotheirweatherdependency.The202324GenCostreportincludesintegrationcostsforvariablerenewablesin2023forthefirsttimeandincorporatesitintheLCOE.Mostnewbuildtechnologiescanenteranelectricitysystemandprovidereliablepowerbyrelyingonexistingcapacity.Existingcapacitycanprovidegenerationattimeswhenthenewplantisnotavailableorwhendemandisrisingbutthenewbuildtechnologyisalreadyatfullproduction.Thisincludesnewbuildvariablerenewableswhentheyareintheminority.However,astheirshareincreases,forcingtheretirementofexistingflexiblecapacity,thesystemwillfinditincreasinglydifficulttoprovidereliablesupplywithoutadditionalinvestment.Toaddressthisissue,GenCostcalculatestheadditionalcostofmakingvariablerenewablesreliableatsharesof60%,70%,80%and90%1.Wecalltheseadditionalcoststheintegrationcostsofvariablerenewablesandtheyconsistmainlyofadditionalstorageandtransmissioncosts.190%isaboutashighasvariablerenewabledeploymentislikelytoneedtogoasincreasingitfurtherwouldresultintheundesirableoutcomeofshuttingdownexistingnonvariablerenewablegenerationfrombiomassandhydroelectricsources.5%2%3%14%10%6%2%8%8%2%BrowncoalBlackcoal BlackcoalwithCCSGascombinedcycleGaswithCCSGasopencycle(large)RooftopPVLargescalePVWind(onshore)Battery(2hr)x|CSIROAustraliasNationalScienceAgencyFeedbackfromthe202223GenCostreportrequestedthatintegrationcostsbepresentedthataccountforstorageandtransmissionprojectsthatwillbedeliveredbefore2030sincetheyhavebeensponsoredbygovernmentorapprovedbytherelevantregulatoronthebasisthattheywillbeneededtosupportvariablerenewables.Toaccommodatethatrequest,wepresentvariablerenewableintegrationcostsfor2023whichincludecommittedandunderconstructionpre2030storageandtransmissionprojects.2030LCOEresultsarealsoincludedbutcontinuetoexcludethesepre2030costssinceby2030theywillrepresentexistingcapacity.TheresultsindicatethatthecostofdeployinghighVREsharesis12%to36%higherin2023thanin2030.Aroundtwothirdsofthehighercostsareduetoinvestorshavingtopay2023insteadof2030technologycosts.Technologycostsarefallingovertime.Theremainderofthedifferenceisduetothecostofthepre2030committedandunderconstructionstorageandtransmissionprojects.Totalintegrationcoststomakehighsharesofvariablerenewablesreliableareestimatedat$41/MWhto$49/MWhin2023and$28to$53/MWhin2030dependingontheVREshare.AdditionoflargescalenucleartoGenCostAmajorityofsubmissionstothe202324consultationprocessrequestedtheinclusionoflargescalenuclearinadditiontonuclearsmallmodularreactors(SMR)thathadbeenincludedinGenCostsinceitsinceptionin2018.InresponseGenCostreexaminedtheappropriatenessoflargescalenuclearandconcludedthat,althoughthedeploymentoflargescalenuclearwouldrequireasignificantincreaseinthereservemarginrelativetoSMRandexistingAustraliangenerationplants,therewasnoknowntechnicalconstrainttodeployinggenerationunitsofthissize.Itwasalsoconcluded,duetothecurrentstateofthedevelopmentpipelineinAustralia,thattheearliestdeploymentwouldbefrom2040.TosourceappropriatelargescalenuclearcostsforAustralia,itisnecessarytorelyoncostsoflargescalenucleardeployedinothercountries.SuchcostsarenotdirectlytransferabletoAustraliaduetodifferencesinamultitudeoffactorsincludinglabourcosts,workforceskills,governanceandstandards.Thesourcecountryforlargescalenuclearcostdataalsohastobecarefullyselectedbecausetherearelargedifferencesincostsbetweencountries.ThelowestcostsoccurincountriessuchasSouthKoreawhichhasdeliveredacontinuousbuildingprogramformanyyearsandcostsaregenerallyhigherinwesterncountrieswhichhavetendedtohavemoresporadicbuildingprograms.GenCostbaseditslargescalenuclearcostonSouthKoreancostsasthebestrepresentationofacontinuousbuildingprogramconsistentwithothertechnologiesinthereport.GenCostthenadjustedfordifferencesinAustralianandSouthKoreandeploymentcostsbystudyingthera