2023年耶鲁金融市场视频笔记.doc

I thought I would just remember a couple of highlights from the first two lectures to consolidate what we said then.
我想重申一下上两节课的几个重点，以便巩固我们讲过的内容
In the first lecture, I talked about a lot of things,but one theme that comes to my mind is the theme of the moral purpose and mission of the finance community.
第一课里，我讲了很多东西，但中心主旨就是金融界的道德目的和使命
We talked about the sense that, I think, young people have a sort of prejudice against the field and they think that finance is a field that you go into if you really value money rather than people.
我们谈论了年轻人对这一行业的偏见，他们认为进入金融业的人金钱至上而不尊重别人
I want to reiterate again that’s not the way I view the field at all.
我想重申一下，我对金融界的见解与他们截然不同
I was just yesterday, I gave a talk in Montreal at the Caisse de Dep----
昨天，我刚在蒙特利的魁北克储蓄投资集团做了一个讲演
which is the big wealth management fund for the Province of Quebec
这个投资集团是魁北克省的一所大型财产管理基金机构
I met a lot of people there and I never once got the idea that anyone there was evil or grasping.
在那我见了很多人，但是我没有察觉到任何恶毒或者贪婪的气息
I think they have a moral purpose, which is to preserve the livelihoods of the people of the Province of Quebec.
我认为他们都有一个共同的道德目的，就是维持魁北克省居民的生计
You get a very different view of things when you meet the people.
只有当你亲身面对这些人的时候，你会看到事情的另一面
I think our entertainment industry likes to make movies about people in finance, but they are inevitably portrayed as evil and I don’t know why that is.
娱乐产业喜欢制作关于金融业的电影，但里面的人物总是被刻画的很恶毒，我也不知道为什么
I don’t think there has ever been a major motion picture about a financial person who ended up a philanthropist. Why is that?
我觉得仿佛没有一部正儿八经的电影里金融业者最终成为了慈善家，为什么？
I just don’t--people don’t like-- people would rather hate--
我不…人们不喜欢… 人们宁愿厌恶…
I don’t know why it’s something--
我不明白为什么
It wouldn’t be a good movie theme, would it? Anyway, you have to overcome these--
那不是好的电影主题吗？不管如何，你们要克服这种想法…
You have to think that if you go into the field you would probably and if you’re successful, you would probably end up as a philanthropist. but no movie will be made about your life and you may eccounter hostility the whole way.
你们要认为，假如你进入这一行，你很也许，假如你成功了，你很也许成为一位慈善家，但是不会有电影记录你的人生，并且你也许整天遭受白眼
It’s especially true right now with the subprime crisis.
在次贷危机下，情况更是如此
People are blaming the financial community for our troubles now.
现在，人们都把危机怪罪到金融界的头上
It is true that we’re seeing some people thrown out of their houses, in some cases, because of some rather questionable financial practices that got people into mortgages that they shouldn’t have gotten into.
的确我们看到有些人被赶出他们的房子，在有些案例中，的确是有些有问题的金融操纵，使人们背上本不该背负的债务
But overall, I think that the people in this field are good people.
但是总体来说，这一行业的人是好人
In the last lecture, I talke about－－
上一课，我讲了…
In the second lecture, I talked about the pooling of risks and the basic theme of that lecture was that we now have a mathematical theory, probability theory.
第二课，我讲了风险汇聚及分摊，那节课的主题是一门数学理论，即概率论
When you look at this theory, you realize that it suggests a very important technology for improving human welfare and by spreading risks.
这一理论，提出了一个重要的技术即可以通过度散风险，提高收益
The economy, and technology, and the weather and all sorts of factors create risks.
经济，科技，天气各种其他因素都也许发明风险
But the real technoloty is-- the technology that works to eliminate risks is to spread them out to pool them, to share them among many different people.
但是真正的技术，可以减少风险，通过风险汇聚，将风险分散，让很多人共同承担
So, the idea that therists suggest and it may be unreachable, but the perfect financial system would have all of our risks pooled completely.
理论家提出的这一理论，也许无法达成, 但是一个完美的金融体系，可以将所有的风险完全分摊
That is, nobody suffers alone.
也就是说，没有人独自承担损失
If anything happens to me in my livelihood, then it’s spread out over everybody and everybody means the whole world.
假如我的生计出问题了，他将分散到每个人身上，每个人指全世界的人
Whatever happens to me, when it’s spread out over six billion plus people, it ends up divided by six billion and it becomes unobservable.
发生在我身上的事，分散到六十多亿人口上被六十亿除，就变得难以察觉
It becomes so small that it’s meaningless and that’s the ideal.
小到微局限性道，这就是完美模型
That’s what, in principle, we can do and what I think is the most important concept in finance--this concept of risk pooling.
原则上，这就是我们能做的，我认为这也是金融业最重要的概念，即风险汇聚及分摊
We live in a world where people suffer all kinds of misfortunes.
我们生活的这个世界，人们会经历各种的不幸
Of course, we can try to get rid of these misfortunes. We can do research on disease prevention and weather modification and global warming.
当然，我们可以避免这些不幸。我们可以研究疾病防止人工影响天气，防止气候变暖
We can do research on all these things. but there’s another technology, which is extremely important.
我们可以研究任何需要研究的事物，但是尚有个更重要的技术
That is, even leaving the risks as they are and just sharing them better.
那就是，相对于改变风险的大小，分散风险才是上策
So, I’ll be talking more about this.
我会更具体的讲这个问题
The problem is that while the principle of risk-sharing is very simple and obvious the practice requires technology.
问题在于，尽管风险分摊原则听起来浅显易懂，但是实践仍然需要技术支持
It’s just like you could say some of the principles of mechanics are very obvious, but to make an engine that operates in terms of those principles is not obvious.
这就像你能说很多机械原理都显而易见，但是要根据这些原理制作一个可以运转的发动机，就不那么容易了
What I want to talk today is about what I call technology in finance.
今天我要讲的就是金融学中的技术
I’ll present my view of the situation but maybe it’s rather idiosyncratic view that I have.But I think--
我会讲讲我的观点，也许我的观点不同寻常，但是，我认为
It’s not so much idiosyncratic, but it’s a different emphasis that I put forth.
也不是那么不同寻常，我讲述的着重点也许有些不同罢了
What I want to talk
我想说的是
There are really three themes to today’s lecture: a risk theme, a framing theme, and an invention theme.
今天的课有三个主题：风险，框架效应及发明
I want to go over the history of risk management and through these three themes.
我要讲讲风险管理的历史，以及这三个主题
The first one is, I might say, a long-term risk theme.
我要说的第一个是，长期风险
Let me go over these three themes.
我先简述一下这三个主题
The long-term risks are dominant in our lives.
长期风险在我们的生活中占统治地位
By that, I mean that everyone’s life is a sequence of shocks that accumulate over your life.
这就是说，每个人的生活都是由一连串的冲击组成的
I’m talking about economic shocks. When you start out young
我说的经济冲击，从你小时候开始
We’re unequal at birth, of course, because of our parents and the advantages we have. but relatively equal at a young age.
当然，我们生来就是不平等的，由于我们的父母和其他的优势，但是年幼时相对比较平等
As each year goes by, you accumulate economic shocks, shocks to your human capital, shocks to what you own as you get older.
随着年龄增长，你不断遭受经济冲击，对人力资本的冲击，当你一天天长大，你一天天遭受冲出
You start-- Your human capital is your ability to do things and your knowledge. which is what you have to sell in the marketplace.
人力资本就是，你做事的能力以及你的知识, 这些是你在人才市场上的资本
As you get older, your human capital evolves and it has its ups and downs as you age and you start switching from human capital to other forms of capital.
随着年龄增长，你的人力资本不断发展，它随着你的年龄不断起伏，你的人力资本开始转变成其他形式的资本
In other words, you start saving and you own stocks and bonds and real estate, and other things.
换言之，你有存款了，有股票和债券房产以及其他东西
Each of these suffers a sequence of shocks that cumulate over your lifetime.so inequality gets worse and worse as people age.
这些东西随着你的生命不断经受冲击，所以随着人长大，不平等就越来越严重
It is at its worst after retirement when you are no longer--, you’ve exhausted your human capital and you’re living off of all the accumulated physical capital.
退休后，到达顶峰，当你不再…，你用尽了你的人力资本，只能以之前积累下来的有形资本为生。
That’s the life cycle story.
这就是生命周期
There’s great inequality among the elderly and that’s a problem.
老年人间存在巨大的不平等，这是一个问题
Some of them are living very badly and others are living with great comfort. That’s what finance is about.
有些人过得很惨，另一些人却过得很滋润。这就是理财的作用
It’s really about people. We don’t care at all about corporations--, we should make that clear--
关乎人的生计。我们完全不关心公司…，我们应当明确这一点
except as they contribute to individual welfare.
除非它们对个人福利有奉献
I don’t care what happens to Citigroup or IBM. Except for the fact that there are all those stockholders out there and they’re of all different situations.
我不关心花旗集团或都IBM的事，但是由于很多人持有它们的股票，那就是另一回事了
Some of them are absolutely dependent on their holding of these stocks.
有些人完全依靠，他们持有的这些股票为生
That’s what we have to think about and it’s a long-term problem.
这是我们要考虑的问题，这是个长期问题
The problem with long-term risks also, is that anything that we do to mitigate these risks creates moral hazard.
关乎长期风险的问题，我们要采用一切手段减轻这些风险带来的道德风险
That’s another fundamental theme of finance. What is moral hazard?
这是另一个基本的金融主题。什么是道德风险
That’s a term that first entered the English language sometime in the mid-nineteenth century. but of course the concept goes earlier.
这个词在19世纪中期，第一次出现在英语中，当然概念产生得早些
Moral hazard occurs when a risk management institution incentivizes you to do bad behavior--to show bad behavior.
道德风险产生于风险管理机构怂恿人们采用有悖于道德与人性手段
The classic example of moral hazard is with fire insurance.
道德风险的一个典型案例就是火险
I get fire insurance on my house and so I behave badly, I deliberately burn the house down to collect on my insurance. That’s moral hazard.
我为我的房子投了火险，于是我就故意烧毁房屋以便领走保险金，这就是道德风险
but it’s not unique to that, it’s all over the place.
并不仅仅是这一项，随处可见这个问题
When you manage risks, you create moral hazard.
当你试图管理风险时，就会产生道德风险
That’s why we need invention and theory in finance to minimize that.
因此我们需要新的金融发明和理论来将危机最小化
The second theme for this lecture is about framing.
这节课的第二个主题是框架效应
By that I mean psychological framing and there are many psychologists who talk about this, but notably Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky.
我指的是心理框架，有很多心理学家研究过这个问题，最著名的是丹尼尔.卡内曼和阿莫斯.特沃斯基
“Psychological framing”means the tendency for people to view things in a distorted way depending on how they’re presented.
框架效应是指一个问题两种在逻辑意义上相似的说法，会导致了不同的决策判断
If I present things in one frame. Then you would react one way.
假如我用一种表述方式来叙述，你就会做出相应的反映
If I present the same thing in another context or background or environment, then you react very differently.
假如我用另一种表述方式来叙述同样的事件或者更换背景及环境，你的反映会完全不同
I will expand on this in a minute.
我稍后再具体讲
The third theme is the invention theme of this lecture.
这节课的第三个主题是，发明