Moon-Landing-Faked.doc

Moon Landing Faked!!!—Why People Believe in Conspiracy Theories
New psychological research helps explain why some see intricate government conspiracies behind events like 9/11 or the Boston bombing
诸如9/11或波士顿爆炸案这样的事件，为什么有些人会在事件背后看出复杂的政府阴谋？新的心理学研究能够帮助我们解释这个问题。
Did NASA fake the moon landing? Is the government hiding Martians in Area 51? Is global warming a hoax? And what about the Boston Marathon bombing…an “inside job” perhaps?
美国宇航局是否伪造了登月事件？政府是否把火星人藏在了51区？全球变暖是不是一个骗局？波士顿马拉松爆炸案呢，难道一切都是自导自演？

Why do so many doubt the U.S. was there?
In the book “The Empire of Conspiracy,” Timothy Melley explains that conspiracy theories have traditionally been regarded by many social scientists as “the implausible visions of a lunatic fringe,” often inspired by what the late historian Richard Hofstadter described as “the paranoid style of American politics.” Influenced by this view, many scholars have come to think of conspiracy theories as paranoid and delusional, and for a long time psychologists have had little to contribute other than to affirm the psychopathological nature of conspiracy thinking, given that conspiricist delusions are commonly associated with (schizotype) paranoia.
蒂莫西·梅里在《阴谋帝国》一书中解释说，阴谋论历来被许多社会科学家视为“一种极端主义者构思出来的不可取信的想象”，而这种想象主要来源于已故历史学家理查德·霍夫施塔特所描述过的“美国政治的偏执作风”。受到这种观点的影响，许多学者认为阴谋论是偏执和妄想。很长一段时间以来，心理学家对于阴谋论的研究贡献不多，他们仅是确认了阴谋思维的心理病理学特征。心理学家发现阴谋论者的妄想大多与（精神分裂性）偏执症有关。
Yet, such pathological explanations have proven to be widely insufficient because conspiracy theories are not just the implausible visions of a paranoid minority. For example, a national poll released just this month reports that 37 percent of Americans believe that global warming is a hoax, 21 percent think that the US government is covering up evidence of alien existence and 28 percent believe a secret elite power with a globalist agenda is conspiring to rule the world. Only hours after the recent Boston marathon bombing, numerous conspiracy theories were floated ranging from a possible ‘inside job’ to YouTube videos claiming that the entire event was a hoax.
然而，已经有证据表明，对阴谋论的这种病理学解释是远远不够的，因为阴谋论可不仅仅是少数偏执分子不可取信的想象。例如，一份本月公布的全国调查报告显 示，37％的美国人相信全球变暖是一个骗局，21％的人认为美国政府掩盖了外星人存在的证据，28％的人相信有一股精英力量带着一份全球主义议程阴谋统治世界。在最近的波士顿马拉松爆炸案发生后仅几个小时，许多阴谋论就已浮出水面，论调从可能是“自导自演”到 YouTube 视频声称整个事件是一场骗局。
So why is it that so many people come to believe in conspiracy theories? They can’t all be paranoid schizophrenics. New studies are providing some eye-opening insights and potential explanations.
那么，为什么有这么多的人开始相信阴谋论？他们不可能全部都有偏执型精神分裂症。新的研究提供了一些令人大开眼界的见解和可能的解释。
For example, while it has been known for some time that people who believe in one conspiracy theory are also likely to believe in other conspiracy theories, we would expect contradictory conspiracy theories to be negatively correlated. Yet, this is not what psychologists Micheal Wood, Karen Douglas and Robbie Suton found in a recent study. Instead, the research team, based at the University of Kent in England, found that many participants believed in contradictory conspiracy theories. For example, the conspiracy-belief that Osama Bin Laden is still alive was positively correlated with the conspiracy-belief that he was already dead before the military raid took place. This makes little sense, logically: Bin Laden cannot be both dead and alive at the same time. An important conclusion that the authors draw from their analysis is that people don’t tend to believe in a conspiracy theory because of the specifics, but rather because of higher-order beliefs that support conspiracy-like thinking more generally. A popular example of such higher-order beliefs is a severe “distrust of authority.” The authors go on to suggest that conspiracism is therefore not just about belief in an individual theory, but rather an ideological lens through which we view the world. A good case in point is Alex Jones’s recent commentary on the Boston bombings. Jones, (one of the country’s preeminent conspiracy theorists) reminded his audience that two of the hijacked planes on 9/11 flew out of Boston (relating one conspiracy theory to another) and moreover, that the Boston Marathon bombing could be a response to the sudden drop in the price of gold or part of a secret government plot to expand the Transportation Security Administration’s reach to sporting events. Others have pointed their fingers to a ‘mystery man’ spotted on a nearby roof shortly after the explosions. While it remains unsure whether or not credence is given to only some or all of these (note: contradicting) conspiracy theories, there clearly is a larger underlying preference to support conspiracy-type explanations more generally.
以下面这项研究为例：尽管人们已经知道，相信了某一种阴谋论调的人很可能也会相信其他阴谋论调，但是我们也可以预见，对于互相对立的阴谋论观点是否相信是负相关的（译注：即一个人不太可能同时相信两种矛盾的阴谋论调）。然而，心理学家迈克尔·伍德、凯伦·道格拉斯和罗比·萨顿在最近的一项研究中发现，事情并不是我们预见的那样。相反地，位于英国肯特大学的研究小组发现，许多受访者会同时相信互相矛盾的阴谋论论调。比如说，阴谋论声称拉登仍然活着，而另有阴谋论同时声称拉登在军事打击开始前就已经死了，受访者对这两种观点的信服呈现正相关。这看上去说不通，从逻辑上讲：拉登不能在活着的同时又死了。研究人员从他们的分析中得出的一个重要结论就是，人们并不因为某些特定内容而倾向于相信一种阴谋论调，人们对于阴谋论的信服是出于一种更高层次的信仰，这是一种更普遍意义上的、对于阴谋论思维方式的支持。所谓这种高层次的信仰，一个常见的例子就是一种严重的“不相信权威”的思维方式。研究人员继续谈到，正因如此， 阴谋主义不仅仅是对于某一单一理论的信仰，而且成为了我们看待世界时的一种意识形态。当下一个很好的例子就是亚历克斯·琼斯最近对波士顿爆炸案的评论。琼斯（美国卓越的阴谋理论家之一）提醒他的听众，9/11事件中，其中两架被劫持的飞机是波士顿起飞的（将一个阴谋理论联系到另一个上去）。另外，琼斯提醒 大家，波士顿马拉松爆炸案有可能是应对金价暴跌的手段，或者是某项政府秘密计划的一部分，目的是让运输安全管理局能够 插手体育赛事。爆炸发生后不久，又有其他人把矛头指向了附近屋顶上的“神秘人”。尽管不能确定对于这些的阴谋论（注意：它们有自相矛盾的地方），人们是全部相信还是只相信一部分，但是显然，人们普遍倾向于支持这些阴谋论式的解释。
Interestingly, belief in conspiracy theories has recently been linked to the rejection of science. In a paper published in Psychological Science, Stephen Lewandowsky and colleagues investigated the relation between acceptance of science and conspiricist thinking patterns. While the authors’ survey was not representative of the general population, results suggest that (controlling for other important factors) belief in multiple conspiracy theories significantly predicted the rejection of important scientific conclusions, such as climate science or the fact that smoking causes lung cancer. Yet, rejection of scientific principles is not the only possible consequence of widespread belief in conspiracy theories. Another recent study indicates that receiving positive information about or even being merely exposed to conspiracy theories can lead people to become disengaged from important political and societal topics. For example, in their study, Daniel Jolley and Karen Douglas clearly show that participants who received information that supported the idea that global warming is a hoax were less willing to engage politically and also less willing to implement individual behavioral changes such as reducing their carbon footprint.
有趣的是，对阴谋论的信仰最近跟反科学挂上了钩。在《心理科学》上发表的一篇论文中，斯蒂芬·莱安朵斯基及其同事研究了阴谋论者的思维模式与是否接受科学之间的关系。尽管他们的调查不能代表的普通人群，但结果表明（相比其他重要影响因素而言），相信多种阴谋理论的人明显拒绝接受一些重要的科学结论，比如气象科学或者吸烟致癌。反之，反对科学原理并不是普遍相信阴谋论后唯一可能的结果。另一项最近的研究指出，积极接收阴谋论信息，甚至只接触一下阴谋论，都会 导致人们开始与重要的政治和社会议题保持距离。例如，丹尼尔·乔利和卡伦·道格拉斯在研究中明确指出，受访者中接收到“全球变暖是一个骗局”这样信息的 人，他们不太愿意参与政治，也不太愿意改变个人行为——比如不愿意减少他们的碳足迹。
These findings are alarming because they show that conspiracy theories sow public mistrust and undermine democratic debate by diverting attention away from important scientific, political and societal issues. There is no question as to whether the public should actively demand truthful and transparent information from their governments and proposed explanations should be met with a healthy amount of scepticism, yet, this is not what conspiracy theories offer. A conspiracy theory is usually defined as an attempt to explain the ultimate cause of an important societal event as part of some sinister plot conjured up by a secret alliance of powerful individuals and organizations. The great philosopher Karl Popper argued that the fallacy of conspiracy theories lies in their tendency to describe every event as ‘intentional’ and ‘planned’ thereby seriously underestimating the random nature and unintended consequences of many political and social actions. In fact, Popper was describing a cognitive bias that psychologists now commonly refer to as the “fundamental attribution error”: the tendency to overestimate the actions of others as being intentional rather than the product of (random) situational circumstances.
这些研究结果敲响了警钟，这些结果表明，阴谋论在公众中间播下不信任的种子，它通过转移人们对于重要科学、政治和社会问题的注意力来破坏民主辩论。那么公众是否应该积极要求政府提供真实和透明的信息？是否应该提出带有适度怀疑的解释呢？毫无疑问，应该！但是，阴谋论所做的不是这些事情。所谓阴谋论，通常被定义为将一件重大社会事件的最终起因解释成一些险恶阴谋的一部分，阴谋论认为一些有权有势的个人和组织组成了一个秘密联盟，而这个秘密联盟策划了那些险恶 的阴谋。伟大的哲学家卡尔·波普尔认为，阴谋论的谬误在于它们倾向于把每一个事件都描述成“故意的”和“有计划的”，从而严重低估了许多政治和社会行动的 随机性和意外后果。事实上，波普尔描述的是一种认知上的偏差。心理学家现在常把这种偏差称为“基本归因的错误”：倾向于把他人行为高估成故意为之而不 是 （随机）情况的结果。
Since a number of studies have shown that belief in conspiracy theories is associated with feelings of powerlessness, uncertainty and a general lack of agency and control, a likely purpose of this bias is to help people “make sense of the world” by providing simple explanations for complex societal events — restoring a sense of control and predictability. A good example is that of climate change: while the most recent international scientific assessment report (receiving input from over 2500 independent scientists from more than a 100 countries) concluded with 90 percent certainty that human-induced global warming is occurring, the severe consequences and implications of climate change are often too distressing and overwhelming for people to deal with, both cognitively as well as emotionally. Resorting to easier explanations that simply discount global warming as a hoax is then of course much more comforting and convenient psychologically. Yet, as Al Gore famously pointed out, unfortunately, the truth is not always convenient.
许多研究表明，阴谋论信仰是与无力感、不确定性和普遍缺乏掌控的感觉相关联的，所以，这种偏见存在的目的可能是通过对复杂的社会事件提供简单的解释——重塑可控性和可预见性的感觉，从而帮助人们“理解世界”。气候变化问题就是一个很好的例子：尽管最近的国际科学评估报告（信息来自于100多个国家的超过 2500个独立科学家）得出结论称，由人类引起的全球变暖正在发生的可能性达到90%，但是，无论从理性还是感性角度讲，气候变化的严重后果和影响往往太 令人痛心，也太让人不堪重负。从心理上说，诉诸简易的解释、单单把全球变暖折算成一个骗局要更加舒适和方便。然而，正如艾伯特·戈尔的名言，不幸的是，真相并不总是简单的。