黄河下游滩区群众安全建设意愿调查研究-黄河下游滩区群众安.docx

黄河下游滩区群众安全建设意愿调查研究
何予川1 王鲜苹1 张军梅2 韩侠1 刘生云1
1．黄河勘测规划设计有限公司；2．河南黄河勘测规划设计研究院
摘 要：群众意愿是制订黄河下游滩区安全建设规划的重要依据。本文在对黄河下游滩区风险分析的前提下，通过选择风险较大滩区的样本村，进行了群众安全建设意愿调研。调研结果表明，影响群众安全建设意愿的因素错综复杂，多数群众有依赖国家的想法，距离堤防1km以内的群众多愿意外迁安置。
关键词：黄河滩区 意愿 安全建设

黄河下游滩区位于现行黄河下游河道两岸堤防之间，是黄河中下游防洪减淤体系的有机组成部分，作为重要的行洪、滞洪、沉沙区，在处理黄河洪水、泥沙问题上具有不可替代的战略地位；但同时下游滩区又是180万群众赖以生存的家园。滩区洪水风险的长期存在、经济社会的可持续发展等对滩区的安全建设提出了更高的要求。滩区群众安全建设意愿调查有助于制定出切实可行、操作性较强的滩区安全建设方案。
按照目前的认识，滩区的安全建设措施有3种，一是移民外迁，滩外就地就近安置，少数群众可脱离土地，多数群众仍需滩内耕作；二是滩内修建避水设施，可以防御设防标准内的洪水；三是不安排避水设施，洪水时临时撤离。无论是外迁安置还是留守滩内，均建议按移民建镇模式，集中安置，尤其是滩内安全设施应考虑平汛结合，使群众能在安置后，能以城镇为依托，改善滩区经济发展条件。
1 黄河下游滩区的洪水风险分布
黄河下游滩区大小不等，特点迥异。伊洛河口以上滩区地面高出20年一遇防御洪水位较多或已防护，为无风险的高滩区；东坝头～陶城铺河段的封丘倒灌区、长垣恼里乡和开封附近相对高滩区等，淹没几率小，属于低风险区；梁山、长平等部分滩区村庄靠近山坡、国道，也属于低风险区，该河段的其它滩区为高风险区；陶城铺以下窄河段，特别是济南以下河段的滩区，为高风险区。
原则上，无风险区不需安排安全建设措施，低风险区仅考虑洪水时的临时撤离问题，高风险区则需考虑外迁或及滩内修建避洪设施安置，其中的济南以下窄河段滩区则倾向于全部外迁安置。
2 群众意愿调查范围及样本选择
范围：无风险区、低风险区不涉及群众动迁问题；而济南以下窄河段滩区外迁安置的认识较为统一，均不必要进行群众安全建设意愿调查。为此，本次调查范围为高风险区中的宽河段，此区域主要考虑外迁安置、滩内就地就近安置两种措施。为充分反映群众安全意愿的变化过程，还对2003年兰考、东明滩区灾后重建项目进行了多次调查。
选取比例：参照《水利水电工程建设征地移民设计规范》关于初步设计阶段随机抽样的家庭样本数的相关要求，选取的样本村取高风险区村庄数的2%。
样本村的选择：首先对宽河段高风险区的自然环境和社会经济情况进行了分析，选取了影响安全建设意愿的主要因素和一些特殊类型村，并将这些因素和类型村作为样本村选择的主要因素；其次由熟悉滩区安全建设情况的专业人员进行选取。选取的主要因素包括淹没水深、离黄河大堤距离、人均村台面积等，选取的特殊类型村包括村台面积和高程基本达标的“落河村（离河较近，有坍塌落河风险的村庄）”、“回迁村（外迁后又返会滩区的村庄）”和“河对岸村（省级行政隶属关系在河对岸）”。共选取了开封、东明、鄄城、武陟、原阳、长垣、濮阳、范县8个县12个乡的23个村的2.3万人为样本；选取的样本村村庄比例为该风险区的2%，人口比例为2.3%。
3 影响群众安全建设意愿的其它因素
除洪水风险外，影响滩区群众安全建设的其它主要因素包括耕作半径、国家补助力度、地方政府的行政力度、安置区设施和标准、与安置区原有群众的关系处理等等。
3.1 耕作半径
从黄河下游滩区群众现状耕作半径、人均耕地占有量、种植结构和耕作习惯、劳动力富裕状况、群众农机拥有量及地形、道路状况等基本情况出发，结合河南省价格成本调查队统计的兰考、原阳等县的亩均用工、亩均机械费用等资料分析，单从对耕作时间的影响看，滩区人工耕作时耕作半径1km合适，机械5km可以。建议耕作半径以3km以内为宜。
根据韩侠等人对淮河流域蓄滞洪区耕作半径情况的调研，淮河行蓄洪区移民安置的耕作半径一般为5km左右，但也有达到7km左右的。如夹滩村安置点，移民点土地由政府统一征用；荆山湖怀远县常坟镇集中安置点，由政府出面，采用滚动置换的方式置换行洪区内土地，两处安置点的耕作半径均在7km左右。
因此，只要群众愿意，移民点基础设施完善，耕作半径的大小并非是影响其外迁与否的主要因素。在安全建设方案拟定中耕作半径能兼顾最好，但并非不可以突破。
3.2 中央、地方政府的资金补助及地方政府行政能力
（1）现行外迁资金补助标准
黄河下游滩区较大规模的外迁安置始于“96.8”洪水之后。早期的外迁安置采用堤防背河侧就地安置的方式，由地方政府统一建设移民新村，国家按户均3000元标准给予补助，其余由群众自筹资金购买。但返迁问题较为突出。
2003年黄河秋汛，黄河滩区兰考、东明滩区成灾。在灾后重建中，国家对外迁的最优惠政策是户均补助1.7万元用于基础设施和建房补助。
（2）现行滩内留守补助标准
早期的滩内避水设施多由群众自筹自建，国家给予少量补助。近年实施的亚行洪水管理项目开始系统化的规划建设，国家对滩内修筑避水连台留守的。给予补助村台全部土方费用的标准。
（3）实施中的问题
地方政府的财力决定了配套资金到位情况，总体上前些年地方的配套资金到位情况不佳。即便是现今地方财力有所增强，但国家相对不高的补助标准仍给地方政府财政施加了巨大压力。表现为早年的安置遗留问题多，外迁的返迁，滩内留守的防御标准低等等，近年的则表现为呼声高、动静小，建设规模不大。
地方政府在投入财力的同时，在安全建设特别是外迁措施中，还投入了大量的人力，从早期建镇整体规划到最终移民到位全过程缺一不可。如何解决安置区建房用地涉及的土地使用权出让、转换等，如何在动迁过程中鼓励积极户、动员消极户、帮助特困户等，如何保障安置后稳定等等核心问题，地方政府都起着至关重要的作用。因此，相关土地政策（如不列入用地指标、不强制土地占补平衡问题、适当减免相关的耕地占用税、复垦费、开垦费等规费问题）的进一步完善有利于增强地方政府依法行政能力，在安全建设方面有所作为。
目前已实施的项目中，除去财力、政策因素外，上级行政的、群众工作的多方压力使得部分县乡镇、村干部劳心劳力，基层干部厌战畏难情绪加重。
4 调查内容和方法
通过对安全建设意愿的影响因素及滩区安全建设具体情况的初步分析，确定需要调查的内容。调查内容包括：户主姓名、家庭人口、总土地面积、耕作距离、家庭年收入、生产工具、宅基地面积、住房面积、安全建设意愿、建议的耕作半径及其它要求等。
由于调查正值收秋种麦的农忙季节，调查人员根据滩区实际情况采取了以下几种调查方法：一是调查人员入户调查，二是调查人员深入田间地头进行调查，三是通过广播将在家村民集中起来调查等多种调查方式。除外业调查外，调查组还听取了有关县、乡、村领导在滩区安全建设方面的经验、教训和建议。
调查前调查人员对村干部和群众讲明本次调查的目的、调查的重要性、国家现行的相关政策、填表的注意事项、各方案的利弊等；并特别强调各户填表时一定要综合分析后慎重选择外迁堤外居住、滩内就地就近建村台、维持现状等方案，要求群众切实表达出自己的真实意愿，并提出自己的建议。
5 调查结论及认识
5.1 调查结果
通过对样本村农户的调查结果整理，23个样本村中的12个村大部分群众愿意建村台（其中有3个村庄有10%左右的户数愿意外迁，1个村庄有38%的户数愿意外迁），8个村大部分群众愿意外迁（其中两个村庄同意外迁的户数比例为55%左右，一个村庄79%，其它均超85%），1个村愿意修建撤退路，1个村愿意修建围村堤，1个村愿意修建避水楼。大部分群众可接受耕作距离在3km左右。
5.2 几点认识
（1）距离堤防1km以内的村庄滩面淹没水深相对较大，大部分愿意外迁，而距离1km以上的村庄更愿意留守滩内
23个样本村庄中距离黄河大堤1km以内的共有9个村，其中7个愿意外迁；东明县沙沃乡徐炉村由于北离黄河大堤近，南有生产堤，且1998年外迁30户群众，近几年因进滩种地不方便有5户回迁等因素，要求在村东西两端修堤与黄河大堤、生产堤形成围村堤；开封县曲兴乡王和寨村由于高出设计水位而不愿意外迁。距离黄河大堤1km以上的14个村庄中只有1个落河村愿意外迁。原阳县韩董庄乡焦双井村因地势高，群众建议修建撤退路；鄄城县旧城镇和毛堌堆、北李庄及东明县沙沃乡双固堆3个河对岸村由于搬迁后需过河种地不方便而愿意修建村台。
（2）现有资金补助标准偏低，多数群众有完全依赖国家的想法
现状户均宅基地绝大多数在0.4亩以上，户均房屋为6间～8间，每间面积为15～20m2，新建造价为450元/m2左右，户均房屋造价在5万元左右。无论是滩外安置还是滩内就地就近动迁，群众要求的建房补助标准多在3万元以上。户均房屋面积大、结构好的群众要求按现有房屋面积和结构进行补偿。如按现行补助方式下群众要求的搬迁期限较长，需等房屋破旧、子女成家之时或经济条件许可后再动迁。
通过本次调研还了解到，部分经济条件较好的家庭，已基本脱离滩区土地耕作，虽滩外定居但关系仍留在滩区，对地方政府外迁安置的优惠政策尤其关注。
（3）群众对外迁顾虑颇多
通过外业调查和与滩区群众座谈，除群众生产生活不方便、缺乏建房资金引起盖房难、搬迁难等问题外，还了解到群众对外迁存在的以下问题颇有顾虑：户均宅基地大小如何，有没有发展空间；多数村庄河堤背河侧无地，换地和征地困难如何解决；地方财政困难导致配套资金问题，公共基础设施能否按规划进行建设；外迁后与安置区村庄经常产生矛盾等。而对动迁后的原有房屋、房台，群众不希望全部拆除，建议留少量的房屋作为生产用房，返迁的潜意识仍存在。
Investigation on the Will of the Crowd
toward Safety Construction in the Floodplain of Lower Yellow River

He Yuchuan1 Wang Xianping1 Zhang Junmei2 Han Xia1 Liu Shengyun1

(1. Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co., Ltd; 2. Reconnaissance, Planning, Design and Research Institute of the Yellow River)

Abstract: The will of the crowd is an important gist in the formulation of safety planning and construction of the lower floodplain of the Yellow River. Based on the analysis of the risk of the lower floodplain, this paper made an investigation on the will of the crowd toward safety construction, by choosing floodplains with higher risks as sample villages. The findings of investigation indicate that factors affecting safety construction are anfractuous, majorities are willing to sponge on the nation, but most people living within 1km from the dike are willing to be resettled.

Key words: Floodplain of the Yellow River, Will, Safety Construction

The lower floodplain located between the dikes along both banks on the lower reaches of Yellow River, is an organic component of the flood control and sedimentation reduction system in Middle and Lower Yellow River. As the important flood passing, flood detention, and sedimentation basin, the floodplain of the lower reach plays an irreplaceable role in dealing with flood and sand, meanwhile, it is the homestead for 1.8 million people. The long-existed risks of floods in floodplain, the sustainable development of the society and so on, require higher on safety construction in the floodplain. An investigation on the will of the crowd toward safety construction in the floodplain is helpful in working out the practical and available safety construction programs.

According to the current knowledge, safety construction is divided into 3 types. The first one is inhabitant resettlement, that is, to resettle the inhabitant in nearby places outer floodplain, some people will be relieved from their farmland but most of them still need to farm on the floodplain. The second one is to build floodproof equipment to defense the bloods within the fortified standard. And the third is not to build floodproof equipment and to adopt a temporary evacuation when flood comes. Whether to be resettled or to stay in the floodplain, building towns for resettlement is suggested to be made for centralized resettlement. Safety facilities in the floodplain should be considered combining peacetime and flood period, so that the crowd can rely on cities and towns and improve the developing conditions in the floodplain after the centralized resettlement.

1. Distribution of the floods risk in the Lower Floodplain of the Yellow River
The floodplains in the lower Yellow River are of different sizes and characteristics. Floodplains up Yiluo estuary are much higher than the level of defending flood that happens once every 20 years, or defended are non-risk high floodplains. Between the reaches of Dongbatou and Taochengpu, Fengqiu back flow area and the relatively high floodplains near Naoli Township of Changyuan and Kaifeng, with low probabilities of flooding are low-risk areas. The floodplain villages that located in Liangshan, Changping and so on standing near hill slopes and national roads are also low-risk areas; the other floodplains in this section are high-risk areas. The narrow reaches down Taochengpu, especially the reach floodplain down Jinan are high-risk areas.

In principle, it is not necessary to arrange safety construction in non-risk areas; in lower-risk areas only temporary evacuation needs to be considered; and in the high-risk areas, resettlement or the construction of floodproof facilities in the floodplain are to be considered, while, in the narrow reach floodplain down Jinan, a whole resettlement is apt to be made.

2. Sample Selection and Scope of Investigation on the Will of the Crowd
Scope: As resettlement is not involved in the non-risk and low-risk areas, and a unified opinion of resettlement is achieved in the narrow reach floodplain down Jinan, so a survey on safety construction is not necessary in the above mentioned places. Accordingly, the scope of this survey is the broad reach in high-risk areas in which measures of resettlement out of the area and the local and nearest resettlement in the floodplain are to be considered. In order to fully reflect the changing courses of people’s will on safety construction, several surveys have been conducted on the post-disaster projects reconstructed in Lankao and Dongming floodplains in 2003.

Ratio selection: Refer to the relevant requirements on the randomly selected sample size in the preliminary design stage stipulated in Specifications on Land Requisition and Resettlement Design for Construction of Water Resources and Hydropower Project, 2% of the villages in the high-risk areas are selected as sample villages.

Selection of sample villages: Firstly, analyze the natural and the social environment of the broad reach in high-risk areas and find out the main factors that affecting the will of safety construction and select some special villages. Such factors and types of villages will be the main factors of sample selection. Secondly, let the professionals who are familiar with the safety construction of the floodplain carry out the selections. The main factors of section include inundated depth, the distance from the Yellow River Dike, and the area of village platform per capita etc. The types of special villages to be selected include “Falling Villages (villages that are nearer to the river, with the risks to collapse and fall)”, “Resettle Back Villages (villages that resettled back to the village after resettling out)”, and “villages across the river bank (villages with provincial administrative relationship across the river)”, whose area of village platforms and elevation come up to the standards. Twenty three thousand of people from 23 villages of 12 townships of the eight counties, namely, Kaifeng, Dongming, Juancheng, Wuzhi, Yuanyang, Changyuan, Puyang and Fanxian are selected as samples in which 2% of the villages and 2.3% of the population are selected as samples.

3. Other factors affecting the will of the crowd toward safety construction
In addition to the risk of the floods, other factors affecting the safety construction include farming radius, subsidies of the state, the administrative strength of the local governments, the facilities and standards in the relocation areas, the relationship with the local inhabitant in this area and so on.

3.1 Farming radius
The current farming radius in the lower floodplain of the Yellow River, the cultivated land per capita, planting structure and cultivation habits, labor force status, the ownership of farm machinery and terrain, road and other basic conditions, all these should be jointly considered with the average labor and machinery cost per mu in Lankao, Yuanyang, and other counties. The data is provided by the price and cost investigation team of Henan province. The influence of cultivation time indicated that a farming radius of 1 km is appropriate for manual work, and a farming radius of 5km is proper for machinery work, but a farming radius of 3 km is recommended.

According to the investigation made by Han Xia and others on farming radius in flood storage-detention area of Huaihe River basin, the resettlement farming radius in this area is generally around 5km, but some achieve about 7km. For example, in Jiatancun resettlement area, the land requisition is made by the government; in the Jingshan Lake resettlement area of Changfen Town, Huaiyuan County, a rolling-replacement mode is adopted by the government to replace the land in the flooding area. The farming radius in the above mentioned resettlements areas are around 7km.

Therefore, it is the people’s will rather than the consummation of the infrastructure in the resettlement area or the size of farming radius that being the main factors affecting their resettlement. In the formation of the safety construction, it is better to perform the best farming radius but it is able to be broken through.

3.2 Subsidies from the central and local government and the administrative capacity of the local government
(1) The existing standard of resettlement subsidies
Larger-scale resettlement in the Floodplain of Lower Yellow River began with the “Aug. 1996” floods. Early resettlement adopted local integration mode on the land side, i.e. the local government built up new immigrant villages, for which the nation provided a subsidy of 3000 Yuan per household, and the rest part of the funds is self-financed by the crowd to purchase. However, the problem of moving back is quite prominent.

In the Autumn Floods of the Yellow River in 2003, floodplains in Lankao and Dongming suffered from great disaster. In post-disaster reconstruction, the most preferential policy for the resettlement provided by the nation is to grant 17,000 Yuan per household as infrastructure and housing subsidies.

(2) The existing subsidy standards for those staying in the floodplain
The early floodproof facilities in the floodplain are built by the crowd on self-financing funds and a small number of national-granted subsidies. In recent years, systematic planning and construction began under the implementation of the ADB Flood Management Project. For those who built floodproof joint platforms in the floodplain, the nation provides subsidies on the standard of all earthwork cost of the village platforms.

(3) Implementation Problems
The financial capability of the local government determines availability of the counterpart fund. The status of the local funding in the past several years is poor on the whole. Although the local financing capability has been improved recently, tremendous pressure is still given to the local government due to the relatively low subsidy standard provided by the state. The early resettlements remain following issues, such as moving back, lowering of defensive standard within floodplain, and so on. In recent years, the issues are in small-scale constructions with more voices and less performance.

In the process of safety construction, especially the resettlement, the local government input financial resources and a large number of labor force as well, which are indispensable in the entire process from the early planning and construction of the town to the completion of resettlement. The local government plays a crucial role in the following key issues: to resolve the transfer and conversion of the land use right involved house building in the resettlement areas; to encourage active households, mobilize negative households and help households in the process of resettlement; to safeguard the stability after resettlement and so