资源描述
飞轮电池生产计划的制定
• 市场需求预测-----------------------4
• 实际产品的生产工艺路线分析--------10
• 生产方式的经济分析和比较----------11
• 制定综合生产计划------------------13
• 生产能力的粗平衡------------------14
• 制定主生产计划--------------------14
• 制定MRP,CRP----------------------14
• 生产能力的精平衡------------------39
• 零件工序卡编制--------------------39
• 产品装配工序卡编制----------------41
1.市场需求预测（Market forecast）
实验数据
month1
month2
month3
month4
month5
month6
month7
month8
month9
month10
month11
month12
year
9
18
24
21
10
20
27
23
11
22
29
26
quarter
？
？
？
？
根据给出的数据，选择一种模型来预测下一年的市场需求量，属于长期预。从给出的数据分析可以得出，每年的同一月份市场需求量比较接近，而同一年份的不同月份之间存在较大的差异，市场需求量与时间季节因素有关。
方案一：Seasonalized Time Seiries Regression的模型来进行市场预测。
预测结果如下：
Sales CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ( 90%)
*** SEASONALIZED TIME SERIES REGRESSION FORECASTING ***
-------------------------------------------------------------------
PROBLEM NAME: Untitled
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FORECAST
Sales -------------------------- ABSOLUTE
YEAR MONTH ACTUAL REGRESSION SEASONALIZED ERROR
1 1 9.000 17.533 8.766 0.234
1 2 18.000 17.982 17.982 0.018
1 3 24.000 18.430 24.573 0.573
1 4 21.000 18.879 22.025 1.025
1 5 10.000 19.327 9.664 0.336
1 6 20.000 19.776 19.776 0.224
1 7 27.000 20.224 26.966 0.034
1 8 23.000 20.673 24.118 1.118
1 9 11.000 21.121 10.561 0.439
1 10 22.000 21.570 21.570 0.430
1 11 29.000 22.018 29.358 0.358
1 12 26.000 22.467 26.212 0.212
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Sales CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ( 90%)
YEAR MONTH FORECAST LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND
2 1 11.458 10.910 12.006
2 2 23.364 22.268 24.460
2 3 31.750 30.289 33.212
2 4 28.305 27.026 29.584
REGRESSION EQUATION: Y = a + bX
WHERE: Y = Sales
X = TIME PERIOD
a = 17.0844
b = 0.4486
FORECAST = Y * SEASONAL INDEX (i)
R = 0.942
R-SQUARE = 0.8872
MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION (MAD) FOR THE LAST 3 PERIODS = 0.333
MEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 0.283
MEAN ERROR (bias) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = -0.131
STANDARD ERROR (sigmasubyx) IS = 0.605
SEASONAL INDEX (1) = 0.500
SEASONAL INDEX (2) = 1.000
SEASONAL INDEX (3) = 1.333
SEASONAL INDEX (4) = 1.167
由决定系数R=0.942和相关系数R2=0.8872，预测结果准确性很高。
预测的误差在合理的范围内，预测结果如下：
month1
month2
month3
month4
year2
12
24
32
28
方案二：TIME SERIES REGRESSION 模型进行预测
预测结果如下：
Sales CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ( 90%)
*** TIME SERIES REGRESSION FORECASTING ***
-----------------------------------------------------
PROBLEM NAME: Untitled
-----------------------------------------------------
Sales Sales ABSOLUTE
PERIOD ACTUAL FORECAST ERROR
1 9.000 14.846 5.846
2 18.000 15.783 2.217
3 24.000 16.720 7.280
4 21.000 17.657 3.343
5 10.000 18.594 8.594
6 20.000 19.531 0.469
7 27.000 20.469 6.531
8 23.000 21.406 1.594
9 11.000 22.343 11.343
10 22.000 23.280 1.280
11 29.000 24.217 4.783
12 26.000 25.154 0.846
-----------------------------------------------------
Sales CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ( 90%)
PERIOD FORECAST LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND
13 26.091 14.974 37.208
14 27.028 15.911 38.145
15 27.965 16.848 39.082
16 28.902 17.785 40.019
REGRESSION EQUATION: Y = a + bX
WHERE: Y = Sales
X = TIME PERIOD
a = 13.9091
b = 0.9371
R = 0.500
R-SQUARE = 0.2501
MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION (MAD) FOR THE LAST 3 PERIODS = 2.303
MEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 31.369
MEAN ERROR (bias) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 0.0
STANDARD ERROR (sigmasubyx) IS = 6.1354
误差分析：R = 0.500 R-SQUARE = 0.2501
MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION (MAD) FOR THE LAST 3 PERIODS = 2.303
MEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 31.369
MEAN ERROR (bias) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 0.0
STANDARD ERROR (sigmasubyx) IS = 6.1354
从预测结果可以看出这种预测方法与过去的数据相差很大，因此，两种方法相比较，第一种预测误差精度更高误差更小，所以我采取第一种预测方法。
2. 实际产品的生产工艺路线分析(Product Process Analysis)
零件代号
零件名称
零件材料
零件工艺过程
生产提前期
1
2
3
4
5
MLF-03
外壳
Q235-A
锻造
车削
钻孔、扩孔
1
MLF-05
外转子电机套筒
Q235-A
锻造
焊接
车削
钻孔、扩孔
2
MLF-11
底板
Q235-A
锻造
车削
钻孔、扩孔
1
MLF-12
电器定位板
铝合金
铸造
车削
铣削
钻孔、
扩孔
2
MLF-07-03
电磁铁外侧夹紧发兰
铝合金
铸造
车削
精车
钻孔、
扩孔
线切割
2
MLF-07-04
电磁铁铁芯
DW314-50
锻造
1
MLF-07-05
电磁铁内侧夹紧发兰
铝合金
铸造
车削
精铣
钻孔、扩孔
精车
2
MLF-07-06
电磁铁夹紧装置
铝合金
铸造
铣削
钻孔、扩孔
1
MLF-09-01
盘片
45
铸造
热处理
车削
精车
钻孔、
扩孔
2
MLF-09-02
磁环
电工纯铁
模锻
车削
铣削
1
MLF-09-03
压环
45
铸造
车削
铣削
钻孔、扩孔
2
3.生产方式的经济分析与比较(Alternative Plans Comparison)
Machine capacity=12325/425=29(assemble/month)
Assemble capacity=4900/175=28(assemble/month)
所以每月最多生产28台。
首先,计算计划一年雇用、解雇的工人数量和在这一年的平均库存。
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Aggregate plan
Month
Aggregate demand
Panned outputs
Workers required
Workers hired
Workers laid off
Level capacity with inventory
1
12
24
72
0
18
2
24
24
72
0
0
3
32
24
72
0
0
4
29
24
72
0
0
Matching demand
1
12
12
36
0
54
2
24
24
72
36
0
3
32
32
84
12
0
4
29
29
84
0
0
8
9
10
11
12
Inventory adding or subtraction
Beginning inventory
Ending inventory
Average inventory per month
Average inventory per year
12
10
22
16
16.875
0
22
22
22
(8)
22
14
18
(5)
14
9
11.5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
然后,计算两种方案的成本：
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Aggregate plan
Total annual number of workers hired
Total annual number of workers laid off
Average annual inventory
Annual hiring and layoff cost
Annual inventory carrying cost
Total annual subtraction cost
Total annual incremental operating cost
Level capacity
0
18
16.875
1080
5332.5
0
6412.5
Matching demand
48
54
0
3720
0
(4+1)*1800
12720
备注：（4）=（1）*10+（2）*60；（5）=（3）*4*79：（7）=（4）+（5）+（6）
在matching demand生产计划中第三月和第四月的需求量超过了本厂的最大生产能力，如若要满足要求需要采用外协或者加班的方式解决。
如果采用外协
第三月份有32-28=4台需要外协，第四月份有29-28=1台需要外协。总的Cost=（4+1）*1800=9000＄
再考虑到工人工资，总的费用如下：
Cost of level capacity=6412.5+72*4*2*200=121612.5
Cost of matching demand=12720+(36+72+84+84)*2*200=123120
相差的费用Cost of matching demand- Cost of level capacity =123120-121612.5=1507.5。 Level capacity比Matching demand的花费更少。
如果采用加班
加班：每台成本是600*2.5=1500
外协：每台是1800
因为对于matching demand 中第三月和第四月共缺5台，所以两者共相差（1800-1500）*5=1500
通过外协和加班两者的比较可以看出，两者的费用差不多，但考虑到Level capacity的生产方式比Matching demand生产方式更加稳定； Level capacity生产方式在解雇和招聘工人方要比Matching demand的变动更小，有利于和工会之间关系的维持；在Level capacity生产方式中有8台的安全库存可以保证在市场变动时满足市场需求。综合以上因素，我选择Level capacity生产方式。
4.制定综合生产计划(Aggregate Planning)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Aggregate plan
Month
Aggregate demand
Panned outputs
Workers required
Workers hired
Workers laid off
Level capacity with inventory
1
12
24
72
0
18
2
24
24
72
0
0
3
32
24
72
0
0
4
29
24
72
0
0
5.生产能力粗平衡(Rough-Cut Capacity Planning)
生产能力粗平衡
Month final assembly hours
1
2
3
4
Production
24
24
24
24
Final assembly hours
4200
4200
4200
4200
Load(hours)
4200
4200
4200
4200
Capacity(hours)
4900
4900
4900
4900
由上表可知生产能力满足要求，不需要加班或者外协。
6制定主生产计划(Master Production Schedule)
主生产计划
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
周数
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
总需求量
12
24
32
29
期初库存
10
22
22
14
需求数量
6
6
6
6
期末库存
22
22
14
9
7.1 MRP7制定MRP,CRP(Material Requirement Planning,Capacity Requirement Planning)
0
1
2
数量
MLF-00
1
MLF-03
1
MLF-05
1
MLF-07
1
MLF-07-03
3
MLF-07-04
3
MLF-07-05
3
MLF-07-06
6
MLF-09
1
MLF-09-01
1
MLF-09-02
1
MLF-09-03
1
MLF-11
1
MLF-12
1
各个零件选择用Lot For Lot的生产方式，用软件POM计算可得：
*** MATERIALS REQUIREMENTS PLANNING (MRP) ***
==============================================================================
PROBLEM NAME: Untitled
==============================================================================
Item Level Lead On Safety Already Lot
Code Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size
00 0 0 10 8 0 LFL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Available 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Planned Order Releases 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Planned Order Receipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Planned Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
==============================================================================
Item Level Lead On Safety Already Lot
Code Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size
03 1 1 0 0 0 LFL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Planned Order Releases 10 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
**** RUSH ORDER ****
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Planned Order Receipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Planned Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 0
**** RUSH ORDER ****
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
==============================================================================
Item Level Lead On Safety Already Lot
Code Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size
05 1 2 0 0 0 LFL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Planned Order Releases 16 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
**** RUSH ORDER ****
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net Requirements 6 6 6
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