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单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,*,本资料仅供参考，不能作为科学依据。谢谢,Decision-making,第1页,.Definition for Decision,A decision is defined as the selection of a course of action from among alternatives;it is the core of planning.A plan cannot be said to exist unless a decision has been made.,第2页,.Definition for Decision,Every organization grows,prospers,or fails as a result of decisions by its managers.,Case-1:,Nokias wrong decision-making,第3页,.Definition for Decision,The quality of managers decision is the yardstick of their effectiveness and of their value to the organization.,i.e.the importance,number,and results of their decision,第4页,.Types of Decisions,The manager as decision maker is a problem solver,charged with either selecting from available alternatives or inventing an alternative.,Programmed and Non-programmed Decisions,2.Individual Decisions and Group Decisions,第5页,.Types of Decisions,Programmed and Non-programmed Decisions,A distinction can be made between programmed and non-programmed decisions which result from different,types of problems,and use,different types of procedures.,第6页,.Types of Decisions,Programmed decision,A programmed decision is for,structured,and,routine,problems.Programmed decisions are,repetitive,and,well defined,and,procedures,exist for resolving the problem.They are,well structured,because,criteria of performance are normally clear,good information is available,about current performance,alternatives are easily specified,and there is relative,certainty,that the chosen alternative will be successful.,第7页,.Types of Decisions,Non-programmed decisions,Non-programmed decisions are used for,unstructured,novel,and,ill-defined,situations of a,nonrecurring nature,.When a problem contains elements that management has not previously confronted or if a problem is,complex,or,extremely important,it requires a,different,and perhaps,unique solution,.Non-programmed decisions are used when a,clear-cut decision criterion does not exist,.Typically,few,alternatives can be developed for a non-programmed decision,so a,single,solution is,custom-tailored,to the problem.,第8页,Decision,Problem,Procedures,Examples,Programmed,repetitive,routine,rules,standard operating procedures,policies,Business:processing payroll voucher,College:,processing admission applicants,Non-programmed,complex,novel,creative,problem solving,Business:introducing a new product,College:Constructing new classroom facilities,第9页,Note:,Most decisions are neither completely programmed or completely non-programmed;they are a combination of both.,Problems that come up frequently and have a great deal of uncertainty surround them are often of a strategic nature and should be the concern of top management.,Upper-level managers make most non-programmed decisions because they have to deal with unstructured problems.,Problems that occur frequently and have fairly certain outcomes should be the concern of lower levels of management.,Middle managers in most organization concentrate mostly on programmed decisions.,第10页,The nature of the problem,how frequently it arises,and the degree of uncertainty surrounding it should dictate the appropriate level of management for making the decision.,.,.,Highest level,Lowest level,unstructured,Programmed,decision,Non-programmed,decision,第11页,.Types of Decisions,Individual Decisions and Group Decisions,Individual decisions made by managers can be described in two ways.,First is the,rational approach,which suggests how managers should try to make decisions.,Second is the,limited (bounded)rationality,perspective,which describes how decisions actually have to be made under severe time and resource constraints.,第12页,Rational Approach,The rational approach to individual decisions stresses the need for systematic analysis of a problem followed by choice and implementation in a logical step by step sequence.,The significance of rational approach:,The rational approach was developed to guide individual decisions because many managers were observed to be unsystematic and arbitrary in their approach to organizational decisions.,Note:,The rational model is an“ideal”not fully achievable in the real world of uncertainty,complexity,and rapid change,the model does help managers think about decisions more clearly and rationally.Managers should use systematic procedures to make decisions whenever possible.,第13页,Why cant we achieve complete rationality?,Decisions must operate for the future which involves uncertainties.,It is difficult to recognize all the alternatives that might be followed to reach a goal.,Not all alternatives can be analyzed.,Because of the limitation of time,managers capacity,cannot evaluate every goal,problem and alternative.,第14页,Herbert Simons satisfying rule,Since managers cannot be completely rational in practice,they sometimes allow their desire to“play it safe”to interfere with the desire to reach the best solution under the circumstances.,Herbert Simon called this the satisfying rule,that is,picking a course of action that is satisfactory or good enough under the circumstances.,第15页,Group decisions,In most organizations,a great number of decisions are achieved through committees,teams,and other groups.,Research has shown that consensus decisions with five or more participants are superior to individual decision.,The problems involve the expertise in many fields,usually not possessed by one person.,第16页,.The process of Decision-making,Identify and define the problem,Develop alternative solutions,Evaluate alternative solutions,Certainty conditions,Risk conditions,Uncertainty conditions,Select alternative,Implement decision,Evaluate and control,第17页,Problem identification,How to locate problem?,deviation from past performance,deviation from a plan,outside critisism,第18页,Three types of problems,Opportunity,Crisis,Routine,Crisis and routine problems present themselves and must be attended by managers.Opportunities,in contrast,must usually be discovered.Often they go unnoticed and are eventually lost by an inattentive manager.Because most crises and routine problems demand immediate attention,a manager may spend a great deal of time handling minor crises and solving routine problems and may spend a great deal of time handling minor crises and solving routine problems and may not have time to pursue important new opportunities.Many well-managed organizations try to draw attention away from crises and routine problems and toward longer range issues through planning activities.,第19页,Developing Alternative Solutions,After defining the problem,Considering the potential consequences,Investigating relevant internal and external environments of the organization,Influenced by the limited time and cost constraints,*,There is a positive relationship between the number of alternatives considered and the speed with which decisions can be reached.,第20页,Evaluating Alternatives,In every decision situation,the objective in making a decision is to select the alternative that produces the most favorable outcomes and avoids the least favorable outcomes.,e.g.maximize shareholder wealth,minimize costs,improve customer satisfaction,win a quality award,meet mandatory deadlines,The alternative-outcome relationship is based on three possible conditions,Certainty.,The decision maker has complete knowledge of the outcomes of each alternative.,Risk.,The decision maker has some probabilistic estimate of the outcomes of each alternative.,Uncertainty.,The decision maker has absolutely no knowledge of the probability of the outcome of each alternative.,The evaluation of alternatives comes down to evaluating outcomes through the use of information.,第21页,Choosing an Alternative,Purpose:to achieve a predetermined objective by solving a problem,Steps:implementation,control,evaluation,Instead of be an optimizer,the decision maker is a satisfier,selecting the alternative that meets a satisfactory standard.,第22页,Implementing the Decision,The manager uses managerial,administrative,and persuasive abilities and gives directions to ensure that the decision is carried out.,It is entirely possible for a good decision to be hurt by poor implementation.,第23页,Evaluation and Control,Effective management involves periodic measurements of results.,第24页,
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