2024年美国假日购买意图报告（英）.pdf

Circana,LLC|For public useNow in RetailOctober 20242024 U.S.Holiday Purchase IntentionsKey FindingsCircana,LLC|For public useTable of contents2024 Holiday Purchase IntentionsAbout the StudyObjectives and MethodologyNotes DefinitionsHoliday Retail Outlook by Marshal CohenWhat Consumer Spending Will Look Like Shopping PlansInfluencers and Perceptions213610142Circana,LLC|For public use3by Marshal CohenChief Retail AdvisorHoliday Retail OutlookCircana,LLC|For public useCircanas Holiday Retail Outlook By Marshal CohenU.S.consumer intentions for the 2024 holiday season are based on a blend of optimism and practicality.Consumer sentiment and intentions related to the 2024 holiday shopping season are improved compared to the last two years.Most shoppers plan to spend about the same as last year,but there is an increase in those planning to spend more.The average planned holiday spend is 2%higher than last year.The key holiday drivers of clothing,technology,and toys have renewed opportunity for holiday sales growth,with increase in the intent to purchase beauty,footwear,and luggage.Plans to give experiential gifts like food and beverage experiences,tickets to an event,or a spa certificate are higher than theyve been in three years.More consumers are planning holiday gatherings with family and friends this year,and fewer people plan to have their holiday meals at their own home.A particularly positive sign for holiday retail is that more consumers plan to self-gift than planned to last year,though still fewer than planned to two years ago.Consumers still plan to do more of their holiday shopping online,but more plan to do some shopping in stores than in the past few years.Amid a landscape of fickle trends that dissipate as quickly as they appear,consumers arent in a rush to purchase.They are willing to wait for sales,evidenced by the increase in those who plan to start shopping over the Thanksgiving/Black Friday/Cyber Week promotional period.Convenience and value are paramount.Most consumers prefer to buy as many gifts as they can online,and they compare prices online before shopping in a store.While value looms large,free shipping remains the top influencer of where consumers will shop this holiday season,as minimum shipping thresholds rise.Social media plays an important role in holiday shopping:76%of holiday shoppers say product review videos are likely to influence their purchases.Food and grocery costs will have an impact on holiday shopping,but consumers are adjusting.Two-thirds of consumers say they will change their shopping habits in order to save money this holiday season.4Holiday Projections:2024 holiday spending is expected to be an improvement from last years results,growing between 1.5%and 3%during the expanded holiday shopping period that now begins in October and runs through early January.Financial concerns though to a lesser degree and other distractions remain,keeping expectations below 2021 levels.Circana,LLC|For public useSource:Circana,point-of-sale first-read data,limited releaseCircanas Holiday Retail Outlook By Marshal Cohen“Spirits are up heading into the fourth quarter,and consumers are looking to hold on to that feeling of positivity.”A sense of retail stability has been established ahead of this holiday seasonU.S.retail sales trends,including discretionary general merchandise and consumer packaged goods(CPG),have continued to stabilize this year.Discretionary spending remains at the new spending baseline established in 2023,and retail food and beverage spending increases have softened.Consumers are seeking a holiday escape that includes some retail therapyThis year,more consumers see the holidays as a break from everything thats happening in the world,and more plan to buy more gifts for others to bring them joy during challenging times.Add on the increase in plans for self-gifting,and you get a picture of a consumer primed for holiday shopping as an event.The consumers quest for value is an opportunity for retail to engageMore than half of holiday shoppers say they will spend less this holiday season because other costs/expenses have gone up.Many holiday shoppers say they will buy more items that are on sale or promotion.More consumers did some of their holiday shopping during this years summer retail promotional events,and more planned to take advantage of fall promotional events than in either of the past two years.But nearly a quarter(24%)say they think they will get the best deals on Black Friday this holiday shopping season the highest in four years.“The holiday retail season has taken on the next generation of shopping.Consumers are not as tethered to the uncertainty of the last several years,and they finally feel stable enough to embrace holiday shopping again.”Marshal CohenChief Retail Advisor,Circana5Circana,LLC|For public use6What Consumer Spending Will Look Like How much will they spend?What will they buy?Circana,LLC|For public useIntended spending is up 2%,with most planning to spend the same as last yearQ1.How much do you plan to spend on holiday shopping this year?Q2.Compared to last year,do you plan to spend?Source:Circana,Annual Holiday Survey,September 2024Plan to Spend on Holiday Shopping(Mean among total respondents)2022$7602023$7542024$771252426575857181818202220232024More than last yearSame as last yearLess than last yearHoliday Spending Intentions%Among Total Respondents7Millennials have leapt ahead of Gen X,planning to spend the most($880).Those with children are also big spenders compared to those without kids($1014 vs$651).Circana,LLC|For public useMean Spend($)Among Planned Purchasers1Tech/Electronics:$9102Clothing/Accessories:$4763Home:$3484Entertainment:$2115Toys/Baby:$2066Beauty:$1737Food or Beverages:$1678Sporting Goods/Sport Equipment:$1649Liquor/Wine:$143%Among Total Respondents1Clothing/Accessories:56%2Tech/Electronics:35%3Entertainment:29%4Beauty:29%5Toys/Baby:29%6Home:27%7Food or Beverages:22%8Liquor/Wine:19%9Sporting Goods/Sport Equipment:10%Q5.Which of these products do you plan to buy as holiday gifts this year?Q6.How much do you plan to spend on.?Source:Circana,Annual Holiday Survey,September 2024Purchase intent is very steady,but with increased spending in some key holiday categories8Top Types of Planned Physical GiftsClothing41%Circana,LLC|For public useCircana,LLC|For public useExperiences continue to be popular for givingFood&beverage is the most popular type of experience at more than 1.5 times the intended giving for ticketsQ27.Which,if any,experiences or intangible gifts do you plan to purchase this holiday season?Q28.This holiday season,do you plan to purchase a subscription box or service as a gift for someone else(or yourself)?Source:Circana,Annual Holiday Survey,September 20249Experiences/Intangibles%Among Those Who Plan to Purchase an Experience/Intangible Gift442725252116151413119 Food/Beverage experiences Tickets to a sporting event,concert or other music event,or theater/play/musical Spa certificate Charitable donations Travel Interactive experiences where the attendees become part of the event Adventure experiences Educational/Enrichment experiences Tours Membership to gym/fitness classes Certificates to experience-dedicated websitesMeanwhile,subscription services rebounded slightly:16%plan to give them,2 pts more than last year,though still down compared to two years ago.55%of consumers plan to purchase an experience/intangible gift,up 2 pts from last year.Circana,LLC|For public use+2 pts+3 pts+3ptsCircana,LLC|For public useWhen,how,and where will consumers do their holiday shopping this year?Shopping Plans10Circana,LLC|For public useQ12.When will you begin your holiday shopping?Source:Circana,Annual Holiday Survey,September 2024Consumers are more likely to start shopping early,but since the pandemic,waiting has increased11Plan to START Shopping%Among Total Respondents Providing a Response0102030405060200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Mid Thanksgiving Day/Black Friday/Thanksgiving weekend/Cyber MondayLate Early December/last minuteEarly Before ThanksgivingCircana,LLC|For public useQ12.When will you begin your holiday shopping?Q12a.Specifically,when before Thanksgiving did you/will you begin your holiday shopping?Q12.d During which of the following time periods do you feel you will get the best deals possible?Source:Circana,Annual Holiday Survey,September 2024Thanksgiving weekend is more popular for starting holiday shopping,up 3 pts this year123%already finished25%plan to start before Thanksgiving5%will start on Thanksgiving Day7%will start over Thanksgiving weekend16%dont plan to start until early December17%have already started20%plan to start on Black Friday3%will start on Cyber Monday5%will wait until the last minute45%of consumers will start shopping before Thanksgiving33%(+6)24%(-7)4%Septemberor earlierOctoberEarly NovemberWeek of Thanksgiving37%Black Friday continues to grow in importance.24%of consumers stated this is the day they can find the best deals for holiday shopping.But some have shifted their shopping to the Thanksgiving holiday weekend(+3 pts)When Will Early Shoppers Start?%Among Consumers Planning to Start Shopping Before ThanksgivingCircana,LLC|For public useOnline grows in importance to consumersQ8a.Do you plan to do any of your holiday shopping online this year?Q9b.Approximately what percent of your holiday shopping do you plan to do?Q9c.Which type of device do you use most often when doing your holiday shopping online?Q10.Which of the following statements,if any,describe YOU when holiday shopping?Source:Circana,Annual Holiday Survey,September 202413Share of Planned Shopping:In-Store vs.Online%Among Total RespondentsPlan to Shop Online for Holiday%Among Total Respondents01020304050607020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024596671737776808580828320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024In-StoreOnlineCircana,LLC|For public useDo the economy and todays political environment affect consumers?What role does social media play in shopping behavior?Are consumers getting into the holiday spirit?Influencers and Perceptions14Circana,LLC|For public useConsumers perception of the economy has improved slightly,but the impact is unchangedQ11c.Based on where things are today,how would you rate the following?Q11d.Thinking about your financial situation and the economy,what impact will they have on your spending this holiday season?Source:Circana,Annual Holiday Survey,September 202415State of the Economy%Among Total Respondents302219181517301821151719375756646561201920202021202220232024Excellent/Very GoodGoodFair/PoorPersonal Financial Situation%Among Total Respondents353636302829302828282828323435404342201920202021202220232024Excellent/Very GoodGoodFair/PoorHow Will This Impact Spending?%Among Total Respondents262934312930514143404242233023292828201920202021202220232024Spend MoreSpend the SameSpend LessCircana,LLC|For public use163268Yes,the election will impact my holiday purchasingNo,the election will not impact my holiday purchasingT8 Will the upcoming election impact your purchase decisions for the holiday season?T10.Thinking about your households food/grocery costs this year,how will those costs affect your holiday shopping?Source:Circana,Annual Holiday Survey,September 2024Impact of Election on Holiday Purchasing%Among Total Respondents17%Will spend more/less depending who is elected16%Will wait to start shopping until after the electionImpact of Food/Grocery Costs on Holiday Purchasing%Among Total Respondents6225222138Will have animpact(NET)Buy the sameamount of giftsbut spend lesson each oneBuy less giftsoverallBuy more offbrand itemsNo impactThe election and rising food costs could affect holiday shopping,especially among Gen Z and millennialsGen Z=44%Millennials=43%Gen Z=73%Millennials=73%Circana,LLC|For public useCircana,LLC|For public use17To save money,two in three consumers will find ways to trade down this holiday season T11:Which of the following behaviors,if any,do you plan on doing in order to save money this holiday seasons?Source:Circana,Annual Holiday Survey,September 202467372222191633Will change habits(NET)I will buy more items that are on sale/promotion I will purchase more store brands than name brands I will substitute less expensive products for those I typically buy I will buy more bundled/value pack items to get a better deal I will purchase smaller package sizes/smaller sized productsI do not plan on changing my shopping habitsPlans to Save Money This Holiday Season%Among Total RespondentsCircana,LLC|For public useCircana,LLC|For public use66%of consumers say the holidays provide a break from everything going on in the world.2 pts higher than last yearAttitudes and perceptions impact behaviorConsumers seek economic relief this season,but they are also looking forward to the joy the holidays bring.Q11.Which of the following,if any,will influence where you shop this year for holiday gifts?Q21.How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements?QC1 Please read the statements that follow and tell us how much you agree with each.Source:Circana,Annual Holiday Survey,September 20241864%of consumers look forward to the holiday season.4 pts higher than last year and highest in five years52%of consumers say they will spend less this holiday season because other expenses have gone up.3 pts higher than last year57%of consumers say going shopping puts them in the holiday spirit.4 pts higher than last year29%of consumers didnt make a purchase this year in hopes they would get it as a gift or find it on promotion during the holiday.3 pts higher than last year28%of consumers buy gifts for themselves as a kind of retail therapy.3 pts higher than last yearCircana,LLC|For public useCircana,LLC|For public use19DOES WHO OR WHAT YOU FOLLOW MATTER?Q11aa.Which of the following social media platforms do you plan to use to learn more about a product before you make a purchase this holiday?Q11a1.Which of the following describes how you currently use social media to learn more about products?Q11a2.This holiday season,how likely are you to make a purchase,or decide against a purchase,based on recommendations and/or reviews from each of the following?Source:Circana,Annual Holiday Survey,September 2024Facebook rebounds to become more relevant in holiday shopping,driven by younger generations19666556492727242111YouTubeFacebookInstagramTikTokPinterestX(formerly Twitter)RedditSnapchatLinkedInPlatforms Plan to Use%Among Those Planning to Use Social Media for Pre-purchase Research(+3)(+6)21%of consumers will use social media for pre-purchase research this holiday season,up 1 pt from last yearSocial medias influence on purchase behavior at the holidays is significant.28%of consumers say they follow brands on social media.Among those followers,three in four are likely to make a purchase because of that.This is greater than the influence of retailers(66%)and product reviews(66%).Inte