5G娱乐经济报告.pdf

HOW 5G WILL TRANSFORM THE BUSINESS OF MEDIA&ENTERTAINMENTOCTOBER 2018How 5G will transform the business of media&entertainment02SUMMARYThe global media industry stands to gain$765bn in cumulative revenues from new services and applications enabled by 5G($260bn in the US and$167bn in China).Thanks to the new network capabilities brought by 5G,annual mobile media revenues will double in the next 10 years to$420bn in 2028($124bn in the US).The transformative impact of 5G will go well beyond just enhanced mobile media.It will disrupt the industry on many levels,with new business models and new immersive interactive experiences to capitalize on.Video,gaming,music,advertising,AR,and VR will all see fundamental changes due to 5G,bringing content and audiences closer.Ultimately,we expect 5G to help bring a new,tactile dimension to entertainment.This study was conducted by Ovum,leveraging in-depth media markets expertise from a large team of analysts and industry contacts in media and telecoms.The forecast followed a rigorous methodology process whereby each 5G use case was put against its own media market context such as market dynamics and business models,and was tested on consumers via a survey.The revenue projections and resulting analysis focus solely on consumer services,although there is also a strong opportunity for 5G in media for enterprises.3G/4G 5GMEDIA REVENUES($BN)01505010020040035030025045020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720285G REVENUE UPLIFT WORTH$765BNFIGURE 1:TOTAL GLOBAL MEDIA REVENUES DELIVERED OVER WIRELESS NETWORKS,3G/4G VS 5G,20162028($BN)SOURCE:OVUMNext page?Previous pageHow 5G will transform the business of media&entertainment03How 5G will transform the business of media&entertainment03Key findings 5G will transform media business models.Thanks to the new network capabilities brought by 5G,annual mobile media revenues will double in the next 10 years to$420bn in 2028($124bn in the US).Media companies that are first to embrace those new business models will be winners.5G will enable new ways to interact with media.5G will unlock augmented and virtual reality applications that will create more than$140bn in cumulative revenues between 2021 and 2028($32bn in the US),enabling a whole new channel to reach consumers.Augmented reality will create a new way for people to connect with media through virtual items,virtual characters,and augmented contextual information.The creation of volumetric 3D content and an ecosystem to manage that type of content will be important to fully realize this market potential.5G will supercharge the digital advertising market.Mobile display advertising will present a significant revenue opportunity,with an expected market of$178bn worldwide by 2028($66.6bn in the US).5G will have a fundamental role in transitioning traditional display advertising toward social and media immersive experiences.Scale,delivery,and measurements are key challenges for mobile ad campaigns today,which 5G will help overcome.5G will triple mobile media revenues in China to$100bn.Chinese national mobile operators and media companies will see many benefits from aggressive 5G network rollouts.China will be the largest market in the world for VR and AR by 2028 with over$15bn in direct revenues.5G will be a major competitive asset for network providers in media,B2B and B2C.Video will see substantial market transformation from 5G mobile video revenues over 5G will grow with a CAGR of 85%between 2021 to 2028.5G will bring economies of scale to network providers TV offerings with a much wider footprint,competing against IPTV,cable,and satellite.On the B2B front,5G will help operators capitalize on mobile media growth by selling 5G network capabilities to OTT video service providers.Longer term,5G will bring new senses to media:touch and feel.Highly responsive haptic suits merged with advanced VR capabilities,such as Ready Player One,will unleash a new sensation dimension to media consumption.This type of new VR experience will emerge in 2025 and will generate over$5bn annually by 2028($1.5bn in the US).Now is the time to bet on the right technology that will enable this,including 5G.Gaming will be at the forefront of 5G-led innovation.AR games will make up more than 90%of 5G AR revenues by 2028($35.7bn globally).Fast responsiveness and high-resolution,real-time streaming will also help unlock mobile cloud,gaming.Overall 5G mobile games revenues,including AR and cloud gaming,will exceed$100bn annually in 2028($20bn in the US).Next page?Previous pageHow 5G will transform the business of media&entertainment04THE REVENUE OPPORTUNITY5G will bring tremendous growth to the media and entertainment industry in the coming years.5G will grow the global mobile media market from$170bn in 2018 to$420bn in 2028($124bn in the US),a CAGR of 9.8%over 10 years.5G revenues will overtake 3G/4G revenues by 2025 globally(2023 in the US)and total net new revenues coming from 5G will account for$200bn in 2028($67bn in the US).4G alone cannot deliver that level of transformation,and not moving to 5G fast enough may become a risk to businesses.Next page?Previous pageHow 5G will transform the business of media&entertainment05FIGURE 2:5G IMPACT ON MEDIA REVENUES,GLOBAL,201628SOURCE:OVUMMEDIA REVENUES($BN)2016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028045025020015010050300350400 NEW MEDIA IMMERSIVE MEDIA 5G IMMERSIVE MEDIA 3G/4G FWA BROADBAND AND TV 5G FWA BROADBAND AND TV 3G/4G ENHANCED MOBILE ADVERTISING 5G MOBILE ADVERTISING 3G/4G ENHANCED MOBILE MEDIA 5G MOBILE MEDIA 3G/4G5G will start to realize its full transformational potential from 2022 onwards,when we will start to see a significant impact on traditional media usage,mass-scale adoption of AR and VR,and the emergence of new use cases such as 3D holographics,haptic suits,and advanced interactive entertainment.Immersive and new media applications will reach an unprecedented scale by 2028,generating in excess of$67bn annually this is equivalent to the value of the entire mobile media market(video,music,and games)last year.5G media revenues can be categorized as follows:Enhanced mobile media(video,music,and games):This corresponds to the use of paid-for and bundled-in traditional media including video,music,and gaming on 5G networks.Enhanced mobile advertising:This corresponds to mobile display advertising such as videos,banners,in-game placement over 5G,and other visual advertising formats that may appear in VR and AR environments.Home broadband and TV:This corresponds to the use of 5G as the primary home internet connection bundled with a TV package.This type of connection is also referred to as fixed wireless access(FWA).Immersive media(AR,VR,and cloud gaming):This corresponds to augmented reality(AR)and virtual reality(VR)content and applications,as well as cloud gaming delivered over 5G.AR,VR,and cloud gaming are not new,but 5G offers the opportunity to unlock their use to mass-market level.New media:This corresponds to new applications that do not really exist today and that 5G will enable in the future.This includes self-driving car entertainment,3D holographic displays,and connected haptic suits among others.Next page?Previous pageHow 5G will transform the business of media&entertainment06FIGURE 3:MARKET TRANSFORMATION OPPORTUNITY BY MEDIA SEGMENT,GLOBAL,20192028 SOURCE:OVUM TOTAL ANNUAL REVENUES 3G/4G/5G($BN)HOME INTERNET AND TVNEW MEDIAIMMERSIVE MEDIA(AR,VR,AND CLOUD GAMING)MOBILE DISPLAY ADVERTISINGMOBILE MEDIA(VIDEO,MUSIC,AND GAMES)040206020018016014012010080 2018 2023 2028+95%(2018-28)+141%(2018-28)+2,394%(2018-28)+43%(2018-28)+2,626%(2023-28)Enhanced mobile broadband to boost media usage and revenues5G will drastically increase media usage.The average monthly traffic per 5G subscriber will grow from 11.7GB in 2019 to 84.4GB per month in 2028,at which point video will account for 90%of all 5G traffic.Figure 3 illustrates 5Gs ability to transform this increased usage into revenues,from already large established segments such as gaming and advertising,to yet to be unlocked new ones such as AR and VR.5G will grow the global media market over cellular networks from$170bn in 2018 to$420bn in 2028($124bn in the US),a CAGR of 9.8%over 10 years.Consumer spend for video,music,and games on mobile will nearly double by 2028 to reach almost$150bn globally($29bn in the US).The fundamental drivers that will help realize this multi-$100bn opportunity are:Enhanced mobile broadband will deliver a seamless,high-quality experience for media streaming services such as Spotify and Netflix.The global paid-for video,music,and games market delivered over cellular networks will almost double in the next 10 years,from$77bn in 2018 to nearly$150bn in 2028.Lower cost per bit will bring affordable and truly unlimited mobile data packages,better adapted to heavy media usage.New business models such as bundling and more effective advertising using real-time data analytics will spur the adoption of media services over 5G.5G bundles will account for 27%($11bn)of global mobile video and music revenues in 2028.Next page?Previous pageHow 5G will transform the business of media&entertainment07New media opportunities will generate$185bn in the next 10 yearsThere are many new opportunities that 5G will enable in the next 10 years besides just growing usage of traditional media on mobile:Advertising will be the most impacted by 5G in terms of value;5G will add an extra$100bn to annual mobile display advertising revenues by 2028($35bn in the US).This will correspond to a net cumulative growth of more than half a trillion dollars in the next 10 years($280bn in the US).The advertising market will benefit from incremental usage of services such as video,the emergence of new immersive formats enabled by 5G,and resulting social integrations.The best way to prepare is to participate in early experimentations with 5G,not necessarily to get first-mover advantage,but rather to understand what is achievable and be ready to move in at the right moment.Entertainment you can feel offers tremendous opportunities for the media industry in the long term.Haptic suits connected to 5G will be able to deliver a new sensory dimension to media experiences.For instance,new sensations such as heat and pressure could be bundled into a weapons upgrade in an action game,or movies could be re-released with a new sensation layer,opening a new monetization cycle across old catalogs.New media experiences to be enabled by 5G such as in-car entertainment,3D holographic displays,and live in-stadium experiences are all set to bring in a cumulative$43bn in the next 10 years($23.5bn in the US).In all cases,5G will bring fans and their idols closer,something to be considered as of great value to consumers.New immersive interactive experiences will be unlocked by 5G.AR,VR,and cloud gaming combined will grow nearly 2,400%in the next 10 years to reach yearly revenues of$47.7bn in 2028($8bn in the US).The cumulative revenue contribution from 5G over the forecast period will be$142bn globally($32bn in the US).5G will benefit from a perfect storm expected around 202325,when hardware and network capabilities will help realize VR experiences that are close to reality.Human-scale 210-degree horizontal field of vision,six degrees of freedom for movement,high pixel-density display/projection resolution,miniature battery size,and highly responsive interaction are some of the elements that are required to reach this inflection point.Mobile edge computing will be key.These experiences wont be achievable solely through stand-alone hardware and will require some of the computational power to be executed remotely on the network.Mobile edge computing(MEC)capabilities that 5G will feature will be key.On the content side,there will need to be an ecosystem around 3D volumetric content creation,management,and distribution,which is already emerging today(e.g.,Intel Studios,Microsoft Mixed Reality Capture Studios).How 5G will transform the business of media&entertainment07Next page?Previous pageHow 5G will transform the business of media&entertainment08How 5G will transform the business of media&entertainment08SOURCE:OVUMTABLE 1:5G KEY OPPORTUNITIES AND IMPACTTRANSFORMATIONAL IMPACTNEW BUSINESS MODELSNEW ADVERTISING FORMATS AND MEASUREMENT Transitioning traditional banner-based advertising to moving images,video especially.Digital and social advertising transformation integration and customization with immersive experiences.Real-time dynamic measurement of ad effectiveness through eye tracking,biometrics,etc.New ad formats in AR and VR.New ways to monetize engagement and interaction brought by AR,VR,and haptics.Less-intrusive ads mean more opportunity for ad-supported premium services(e.g.,ads in Netflix).EMPOWERED GAMING EXPERIENCES 5G AR gaming will be very large(90%of all AR revenues).5G-reduced lag to unlock cloud gaming on mobile.Haptic suits and VR to transform gaming experience.Virtual objects to be used in games for AR and VR.Network-dependent gaming experiences such as cloud gaming more likely to push subscription models.Pay per sensation/feel on haptic suits.VIRTUAL ENVIRONMENTS AS NEW MEDIA CHANNELS An entirely new way for consumers to interact with content.Engagement levels to be much higher because of immersion.Create a real connection between artist and fan.Virtual items can be bought via in-app transactions or bundled in with digital media purchases(e.g.,movie,music video).Highly valued engagement could be priced on a per event or per minute basis for celebrities.New advertising formats.A NEW SENSORY DIMENSION TO ENTERTAINMENT Haptic suits combined with high responsiveness of 5G network will bring touch sensation over the internet.Realistic immersion when combined with high quality VR.A new sense means an entirely new way to monetize entertainment.Different levels or sensations could be unlocked for different price tiers.IN-CAR ENTERTAINMENT Driverless cars to bring new context in which to enjoy entertainment set to generate an aggregate$19.5bn in the next 10 years.Americans spend on average 293 hours per year driving,according to the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety.Car-hold dual-play.Home entertainment subscription for the-car.Our survey data shows that consumers are likely to pay more for in-car entertainment than for mobile entertainment.Next page?Previous pageHow 5G will transform the business of media&entertainment09THE IMPACT ON THE COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE 5G will enable network operators to compete better with cable and satellite operatorsOver half our survey respondents(53%and 50%in the US and the UK respectively)indicated they would be interested in switching to 5G providers for their connectivity and TV services.5G network capabilities will enable converged fixed/mobile wireless service providers to reach economies of scale and offer bundled services,of which residential connectivity and TV and video services are likely to b